Eric Berger

Unofficial forecast for the Houston Marathon: 11 days to go!

January 6, 2016 at 4:12 pm by Eric Berger

We’re getting close to the point where we can start to look at 10-day forecasts for the marathon, but we’re not there yet. Still, the models remain pretty consistent regarding probable conditions that we’re likely to see for the morning of the run, and the best news is that there’s still no signal whatsoever for very warm conditions.

Right now we’re looking at a strong cold front coming into Houston on Saturday, Jan. 9th, which will keep the region cooler than normal through next Tuesday. The period of next Wednesday through Saturday, Jan. 16th appears to bring near-normal or slightly warmer than normal conditions. However the models appear to be trying to bring a cool front into the region something around Saturday, January 16th. I have to say that trying to time cool fronts 10 days ahead of time is really challenging.

The GFS model forecasts temperatures slightly below normal for Houston Sunday, Jan. 17th. (Weather Bell) — The GFS model forecasts temperatures slightly below normal for Sunday, Jan. 17th. (Weather Bell)

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Widespread rain likely today and especially tonight

January 6, 2016 at 7:52 am by Eric Berger

After three sunny days gray skies and rain return to Houston.

TODAY

Dry air is moving off, and being replaced by moist, warmer air. A disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere will bring the impetus for rain. Light showers are possible this morning, with heavier stuff later this afternoon and especially tonight across the Houston area. Although I don’t expect any severe weather, much of the region should see a good 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain.

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Unofficial forecast for the Houston Marathon: 12 days to go!

January 5, 2016 at 11:02 am by Eric Berger

Not much has changed since yesterday’s forecast. In about a week’s time, give or take, it appears that a large amount of Arctic air will spill into the Midwestern United States. What’s not clear is whether that air will be shunted off to the east, or whether much of it will continue moving southward into Texas. For the marathon’s purposes, it may not matter a whole lot.

After that feature, during the second half of next week, the models bring a somewhat warmer air mass into the eastern United States, including Texas. However by the weekend of the marathon it appears that air, too, has moved on, which would leave conditions cooler than normal.

Here’s how the GFS model suggests conditions will be between noon Saturday, January 16th, and Sunday, the 17th. The model is suggesting temperatures 3 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit below normal for Texas, including Houston.

Temperature anomaly for Saturday night and Sunday morning, Jan. 17th. (Weather Bell)

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Warming up for the rest of the work week, and a sunny winter weekend on tap

January 5, 2016 at 7:59 am by Eric Berger

Our forecast remains more or less the same, with a slow warming trend before cooler weather returns by the weekend.

TODAY

It’s a very cold morning, with freezing temperatures over parts of the northern half of the Houston metro area. As high pressure moves off we’ll see only partly sunny conditions today, with highs in the mid-50s and a slight chance of rain tonight. Lows in the 40s tonight.

WEDNESDAY

Wednesday, and especially Wednesday night, will see the best chance of rain as a low pressure system in the upper levels of the atmosphere moves through the area. I expect most areas to receive 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain, with only scattered thunderstorms.

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