Eric Berger

Storms possible later today, heavy rain perhaps on Wednesday

Good morning. A few areas have picked up some light rain this morning, but the forecast models that predicted reasonably heavy showers for the region this morning have largely busted. That does not give me great confidence in the forecast for the rest of the day.

TODAY

The big question is whether a capping inversion over the region will break, or not, today. As an atmospheric disturbance moves over Texas today this will create a fair amount of atmospheric stability such that, if the cap breaks we’ll probably see some significant showers and thunderstorms. According to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center the primary threat will come from hail and wind damage, with a very slight chance of tornadoes. Right now any severe weather that does develop seems more likely to the north and east of Houston, rather than the south and west where the cap is weakest.

My best guess for rain totals today is less than one-half inch of rain south of Interstate 10, and the potential for one-half or more north. But after this morning’s bust my confidence is not high.

An atmospheric disturbance will bring a chance of storms later today. (NOAA)
An atmospheric disturbance will bring a chance of storms later today. (NOAA)

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Monday could be wet—and Wednesday wetter still

A lot of people have been asking for when it might rain next, and now the forecast is becoming more clear. So here’s a quick weekend update on rain chances for the next few days.

MONDAY

If you’ve been outside today you’ve probably felt the increasing moisture levels, and seen some clouds. That’s atmospheric moisture returning to Houston, and high resolution forecast models show the possibility of locally heavy rain on Monday morning, from a few hours before sunrise through around 9 a.m. I’d characterize the uncertainty about amounts of rain as “high,” but there’s definitely the potential for some areas to pick up a quick inch of rain. Most parts of Houston, however, are more likely to only see a tenth or two of an inch of rain during the morning hours.

Another round of showers is possible in the afternoon, however the better chances for rain, and possibly severe weather, lie well to the northeast of Houston later on Monday.

Storms are possible Monday to the northeast of the Houston metro area. (NOAA)
Storms are possible Monday to the northeast of the Houston metro area. (NOAA)

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Pleasant through Saturday, with a possibility of heavy rain next week

Good morning, it’s pleasantly cool out this morning, with low temperatures falling to around 50 degrees for most of the area in the wake of a cool front that moved into Houston on Wednesday.

TODAY

We’re now set up for three really nice days of spring-like weather. Today, with ample dry air and clear skies,we could see temperatures climb all the way into the low-80s, but we’ll still see a cool nights in the mid- to upper-50s as temperatures fall with the sunset.

Embrace to cool air, Texas, because in a few weeks most of this map will be orange during the morning hours. (Weather Bell)
Embrace to cool air, Texas, because in a few weeks most of this map will be orange during the morning hours. (Weather Bell)

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After a front, pleasant spring weather through Saturday

It’s quite a bit warmer out this morning, with lows falling only to around 60 degrees across most of the Houston metro area.

TODAY

Highs today should climb into the upper 70s under partly cloud skies, and a cool front should reach the area during the afternoon hours, likely moving off the coast before sunset. Most likely it will be a dry front, with only a slight chance of spotty showers. Drier air will make for a cooler night tonight.

High resolution models show some spotty shower development near the coast this afternoon, but I wouldn't hold my breath. (Weather Bell)
High resolution models show some spotty shower development near the coast this afternoon, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. (Weather Bell)

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