A gray start to the New Year, but will it rain?

I hope everyone is enjoying their end of the year weather. My wife, who loves the heat, is miserable, hiding beneath an electric blanket. I’m loving the colder air after what seemed like a never-ending summer. Anyway, here’s a quick look at what’s ahead.

TODAY

Parts of Houston saw light rain overnight and this morning, but I expect that to end this afternoon except, possibly, for areas immediately along the coast. Most areas will see high temperatures near 60 degrees today under mostly cloudy skies.

NEW YEAR’S EVE

The big question is how long the break in the rain lasts. Thursday won’t be warm, with highs in the mid-50s, but moisture levels in the atmosphere will begin to increase later in the day, setting the stage for light rain. But will it hold off during the crucial evening hours, when many will venture outside to ring in the new year? If I had to guess, I’d say yes, but it’s a tough call. Temperatures between 6 p.m. and midnight will be in the upper 40s.

The GFS (and other models) now seem less bullish on rain on Thursday night. (Weather Bell)
The GFS (and other models) now seem less bullish on rain on Thursday night. (Weather Bell)

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A gray day, a gray week, a new year

In honor of the Houston region finally reaching consistently winter-like conditions, we open today weather post with a simple haiku.

A gray day, today

A gray week, this week, all week

Finally, it’s winter

TODAY

Most areas are seeing partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies this morning after overnight lows dipped down to about 40 degrees. Highs today will reach the upper 50s. After sunset light, misting rain will be possible during the overnight hours.

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Winter arrives, will stay for awhile

Wind chill temperatures this morning are in the 30s across the Houston area, and for the first time in more than a week it really feels like winter outside. And it’s going to remain that way.

Winter has come to Texas this morning. (Weather Bell)
Winter has come to Texas this morning. (Weather Bell)

 

TEMPERATURES

Winds will finally die down today, but temperatures are only likely to rise to about 50 degrees. Lows will fall into the 30s, but won’t reach freezing levels in the metro area. Welcome to the new normal for this week and weekend.

Wednesday looks to be the warmest day, with high temperatures of around 60 degrees.

Temperatures on New Years Eve — heading toward midnight — will generally be in the upper 40s, with partly cloudy skies. So bundle up!

RAIN

Houston may see a slight chance of rain on Tuesday night, but for the most part this week we will be dry.

The forecast models are split as to whether we’ll see some rain this weekend. If we do it most likely will be in the form of light rain. I wouldn’t have any confidence in a weekend forecast yet, beyond the fact that it’s going to be cold.

WARM UP?

This colder pattern will stick around for the next eight or nine days before we finally begin to see high temperatures climb back up into the upper 60s.

Severe storms possible Sunday ahead of an Arctic front

Hey all. Here’s a quick holiday weekend update on the possibility of severe weather Sunday in advance of a cold front.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the outlook for severe weather on Sunday for parts of the Houston area to “enhanced,” which means there is a greater likelihood of organized thunderstorm activity, some potentially intense. For areas marked in orange below there is a 30 percent chance of severe thunderstorms occurring within 25 miles of a given location.

Severe weather outlook for Sunday. (NOAA Storm Prediction Center)
Severe weather outlook for Sunday. (NOAA Storm Prediction Center)

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