Cooler this week, but a warm Christmas?

Oh boy. My wife keeps asking me about a White Christmas next week. Yeah, about that …

TODAY

After a cool start with temperatures in the upper 40s we’ll warm into the low 70s, under sunny skies. Winds have already come back out of the south, so the influx of colder air that arrived on Sunday won’t last too long.

TUESDAY

As moisture from the Gulf of Mexico piles into the region on Tuesday we’ll see humidity levels rise, and high temperatures will climb into the upper 70s. Yes, it’s getting warm again. But only briefly. A fairly strong cold front will arrive late Tuesday or early Wednesday morning, bringing a chance of rain — I don’t expect more than a few tenths of an inch — after sunset Tuesday and before sunrise on Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY

The front should move through by Wednesday morning, setting the stage for a gorgeous second half of the week.

It appears as though Friday morning will be this week's coldest. (Weather Bell)
It appears as though Friday morning will be this week’s coldest. (Weather Bell)

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Front arrives, rain ending this afternoon, more winter-like this week

As of 9 a.m. the cool front had made it through Houston, and the strongest storms were moving quickly to the east. Temperatures have fallen about 20 degrees in the wake of the front’s passage, so adjust your thermostat accordingly.

As expected, rain accumulations last night and this morning have brought the greatest amounts north of Houston. (HCOEM)
As expected, rain accumulations last night and this morning have brought the greatest amounts north of Houston. (HCOEM)

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Storms tonight, early Sunday, then cooler

Here’s an update on what to expect later today, tonight and Sunday

TODAY

The radar is quiet this morning across Houston and it’s likely to stay that way until early this afternoon. Later on storms may develop to the southwest of the city, in the Matagorda Bay area, and move north-northeast into Houston. Confidence is low in what may happen, but some forecast models show enough instability for some strong storms with this system during the afternoon and early evening hours before about 9 p.m, with some localized heavy rain. I can’t rule it out. Temperatures will remain muggy throughout the day.

TONIGHT

The main storm system will approach from central Texas later tonight in the form of a major squall line. I’d expect these storms to move into the western parts of Houston by around midnight, and affect the region through sunrise. Fortunately for Houston, while there is strong lift associated with the front, the atmosphere isn’t going to be all that unstable. This should limit the potential for very strong storms in the Houston metro area.

Houston should miss the worst of the storm activity, NOAA forecasts. (Storm Prediction Center)
Houston should miss the worst of the storm activity, NOAA forecasts. (Storm Prediction Center)

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We’ll endure near-record heat and storms before a cold front Sunday

It’s another foggy morning and a dense fog advisory is in effect until 9 a.m.

TODAY-FRIDAY

Goodbye winter, hello early fall. Houston will see two days of near record heat with highs around 80 degrees, with sultry lows in the upper 60s. These overnight temperatures are nearly 25 degrees warmer than normal for mid-December. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny.

SATURDAY

Saturday will start out warm and muggy, with humidities near 100 percent. Heaven help you if you’re running a half marathon that morning because it’s going to be absolutely miserable for long-distance runs.

Rain chances will be relatively low during the day, but increase a bit during the afternoon before spiking after sunset as a storm system approaches and clashes with the Gulf of Mexico moisture. The entire region is under a “slight” chance of severe weather, according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center, with damaging winds the primary threat.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center outlook for Saturday and Saturday night.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center outlook for Saturday and Saturday night.

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