Eric Berger

Nice today, and despite rain not expecting widespread flooding this weekend

Good morning, and welcome to my weekday morning update on conditions ahead for the greater Houston area.

TODAY

Houston will enjoy splendid weather for Election Day after any remaining fog burns off this morning, with a cool start to the day, highs in the upper 70s, and lots of sunshine. Nothing to complain about.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY

On Tuesday night and Wednesday we’ll see an increasing return flow off the Gulf of Mexico, and as atmospheric moisture levels rise we’ll see mostly sunny conditions on Wednesday transition to mostly cloudy skies on Thursday. Later on Thursday there will be a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms over Houston. However it appears the really dynamic weather will remain to the northwest of the Houston metro area. Here’s the outlook from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center:

(NOAA)
Convective outlook for Thursday. (NOAA)

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After a beautiful start to the week, rain possible later

Well, thank goodness that’s over. Another weekend of seemingly unending rain. Surely that can’t happen again, right? RIGHT? Don’t worry, we’re going to talk about next weekend.

TODAY and TUESDAY

Weak winds and very wet grounds have created some foggy conditions this morning, and a dense fog advisory is in effect until 9 a.m.

With clearing skies the rest of Monday and Tuesday look great, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid- to upper-70s. Lows around 60. Enjoy the great fall weather.

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Yes, it’s still raining, and yes, that blows

“Oh good, the rain is still here.”

— Said no one in Houston this morning.

After a break in showers on Saturday afternoon, intermittent rain returned last night and during the overnight hours. And again this morning Houston was greeted by rain showers. So what happened?

An upper-level low pressure system that drove rain early on Saturday moved a little slower, and has been a little more effective at drawing moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico. Hence the slow and steady rain for much of the metro area this morning.

Location of the upper-level low at 7:30 a.m. CT. (NOAA)
Location of the upper-level low at 7:30 a.m. CT. (NOAA)

 

Unfortunately, given the slow movement of the upper-level low pressure system, instead of seeing rapid clearing today we may see continued intermittent light-to-moderate rain. This shouldn’t be enough to cause any kind of flooding in Houston because the bayous were able to recover on Saturday afternoon and during the overnight hours.

But it does mean today will be mostly gray, intermittently sodden, and overall not the Sunday we were all hoping for.

I’m still pretty confident that Monday and Tuesday will be pleasant, mostly sunny fall-like days, with highs in the 70s. But that won’t make today any better.

Heavy rains ending, scattered showers still possible, cooler on Sunday

As of noon on Saturday the heaviest rains associated with today’s storms have moved through central Houston and are pushing off to the east.

Finally, right?

Radar snapshot at 12:05 pm CT. (Intellicast)
Radar snapshot at 12:05 pm CT. (Intellicast)

 

Although forecasts for the timing of the heavy rains were accurate — I had pegged midnight Friday to noon on Saturday for the most intense rains — amounts were not. Instead of isolated areas of six or more inches, widespread areas of the metro region received that much. And isolated areas to the east-northeast of Houston, including Crosby, received a staggering 11 inches of rain during the last 24 hours.

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