Eric Berger

Good morning! Before jumping into the forecast we want to say a word about our annual fundraiser, which kicks off today. This is your chance to support Space City Weather, and the efforts of Eric, Matt, and the rest of the crew at the website. Your purchases and donations directly support our work, the operation and maintenance of the website, our app and its regular updates, and more. Because of your generous support we are able to offer Space City Weather for free, for everyone, without any nonsense such as tracking or intrusive advertising or clickbait.

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On to the weather!

Today & Saturday

The apt word for this forecast is “dreary.” No, it is not likely to rain the entirety of today and tomorrow. But there will be periods of light rain, drizzle, or even steady rain mixed in with drier, overcast stretches. The best chance of some heavier rain would probably occur tomorrow south of I-10. Temperatures won’t go very far on either day. Temperatures won’t go anywhere today, and if anything we’ll see a slight drop in temperatures through the 60s and into the 50s. These temps will probably stay there most of tomorrow as well. If you’ve been longing for a couple gray days with chilly, damp weather, well, you’re in luck!

Sunday

The back part of the weekend is probably the best chance for a bit of a respite from rain. I do still think there will be showers or light rain pockets around on Sunday. Rain may pick up in coverage and intensity from southwest to northeast in the evening hours. I’m banking on the first half of the day to be our winner of the weekend, which isn’t saying much. it will still be in the low to mid-60s at best with clouds.

Monday

We start next week on a stormy note. A developing low pressure system in the Gulf is likely to fling a good bit of rain and a chance of thunderstorms our way Monday. Some of the rain could be heavy, especially south of I-10. We aren’t necessarily expecting anything serious on Monday, but I do think we should keep an eye on things for isolated severe storms or localized flooding.

Coastal conditions will be notable Monday with gusty winds as high as 30 to 40 mph in gusts possible, in addition to some rough seas. Monday’s highs will be in the low-60s, with lows again in the 50s.

Rest of next week

We should transition out of this pattern Tuesday, with only slight rain chances and decreasing clouds. Highs will be in the 60s again. We warm up Wednesday through Friday with temperatures rebounding into the 70s and lows back into the 60s. Our next cold front is probably arriving sometime next weekend. Details on what comes with that are too soon to say right now.

Good morning. Houston has experienced very warm (for November) temperatures this week, but that will come to an end with a cool front’s passage later this afternoon and evening. This front will lead to a wet and gray weekend, with temperatures in the vicinity of 60 degrees into the middle of next week. After all the sunshine it will be a bit dreary, I must say, but there are two good things to say about the pattern change. One, temperatures will feel more like November. And two, much of the region could really use the rainfall.

Thursday

Temperatures today are likely to climb into the low-80s ahead of the frontal passage, but mostly cloudy skies should limit them from going much higher. There may be some very scattered showers today ahead of the front, but the better rain chances will come late this afternoon, evening, and overnight as the front slogs through. This will not be a classic front that blasts into Houston out of the north with colder and drier air immediately, rather the cooler air will percolate into the region gradually overnight and on Friday. So don’t expect an immediate change in the air mass. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-60s.

As for rain, most of the area will see between 0.25 and 1 inch overnight and into Friday morning, with the usual potential for some areas to see higher bullseyes. So don’t expect anything extreme in terms of rainfall, but nearly all of us should at least see a bit of a soaking.

Friday

This will be a gray, damp, and chilly day. Rain chances are about 60 percent, with high temperatures gradually dropping during the daytime as the air mass changes. Highs will be in the low 60s for most of the day, with lows falling into the 50s overnight.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will bring more of the same. The cold front is going to move into the Gulf of Mexico and then should more or less stall. This will help funnel disturbances into the area this weekend that should support high rain chances, particularly on Saturday, and particularly closer to the coast. These will generally be on-again, off-again showers, so if you have outdoor plans this weekend they’re in serious doubt, especially for locations south of Interstate 10. Skies should be mostly cloudy regardless, with highs of around 60 degrees, and lows in the upper 50s. I don’t have any serious flooding concerns, but we probably are looking at accumulations in some locations of 2 to 4 inches by the end of the weekend.

Next week

Rain chances slacken a bit early next week, but I’d still peg them at 50 percent or so daily through Tuesday for areas closer to the coast (lesser inland). This will help keep a limit on highs as well, likely in the low- to mid-60s. We probably will start to warm up some headed into next weekend, perhaps into the mid- to upper-70s. I don’t have a lot of confidence after that, which means that at this point I don’t have much intelligible to say about the Thanksgiving forecast. It’s still two weeks away, after all, and only a turkey would try to make such a prediction.

Good morning. The Houston region faces three more warm days before a significant change in our pattern brings improved rain chances and colder air. We’re not looking at very dry air and sharply cold nights, as the region experienced a week ago. But rather we’re going to see mostly cloudy weather for awhile, with days in the 60s, lows in the 50s, and healthy rain chances. We’ll begin to warm back up by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.

Tuesday

Before that we’re going to see some more weather in the mid-80s, with humid air. Highs today will generally be in the mid-80s, with mostly sunny skies, and southerly winds at 5 to 15 mph. Low temperatures tonight may briefly drop into the upper 60s in Houston, but there won’t be much (if any) chill in the air. There is perhaps a 10 percent chance of very light showers.

Wednesday

Did you like Tuesday’s weather? Good. Because Wednesday is going to be basically the same.

Thursday

This day will begin similarly to Tuesday and Wednesday, but change will quite literally be in the air. High temperatures probably will be a couple of degrees cooler due to some more cloud cover. Some slight rain chances will start to pick up during the afternoon and evening hours, ahead of, and along with a front moving into the region. The front probably will push into Houston during the overnight hours and off the coast by Friday morning.

Friday

This will be a gray and cooler day, with highs in the 60s. So it won’t be super cold, but it will be chilly with on and off precipitation. In terms of accumulations, I’m still not confident, but I would bet that most of the area picks up between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain, with the usual possibility of outliers. So at this point I don’t really have flooding concerns. Accumulations will likely be higher to the west of Houston than to the east. Lows on Friday night will drop into the 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

My confidence in the weekend forecast also remains fairly low. There could be a break in showers on Saturday, Veteran’s Day, for inland areas away from the coast. The challenge for the forecast is that the front and its associated moisture are unlikely to push all that far into the Gulf of Mexico, so we’re going to see the potential for lingering showers this weekend, and next week. The bottom line is that we’re looking at a pair of cloudy days in the 60s this weekend, with a healthy chance of light to moderate rainfall each day. At this point I’d say Sunday has a slightly better chance of rain than Saturday. We’ll see.

Next week

This gray and wet pattern will persist into early next week, likely at least Monday and possibly Tuesday. So that means more partly to mostly cloudy skies and ongoing highs in the 60s or so. Total rainfall accumulations (see map above) are going to add up over the the next week, likely with 1 to 4 inches for most of the metro area.

We’re probably going to transition to a somewhat sunnier and warmer pattern for the second half of the week. Think highs in the 70s, with lower rain chances. This warming trend will continue into next weekend, at which point another front is likely in the cards. But whether that comes on Saturday, Sunday, or Monday, I cannot say.

Good morning. We may be noticing it less because the temperatures are cooler, but a significant chunk of the Houston region remains mired in a severe drought. Moreover, parts of Fort Bend County are in an extreme drought. And just a little but farther, to the east in places like Beaumont, an exceptional drought continues to rage. Fortunately some relief is on the way this week, as the passage of a cool front on Thursday and Friday should bring a solid amount of rain with it—although frustratingly the totals are likely to be on the lesser end in the Beaumont-Port Arthur area.

Monday

Before the front arrives we’re going to see warm and humid days, but nothing too excessive. Highs today will reach the low 80s with partly sunny skies. The air will be humid, but not oppressively so. Winds will be light, out of the south, but there may be a few gusts this afternoon. Clouds will build this evening, and temperatures are likely to only drop into the upper 60s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These days are likely to be more or less the same as Monday. Highs for most of the area will reach the 82 to 85-degree range. This is warm for early November, but still several degrees below record highs. Nights remain mild, only dropping into the upper 60s.

Thursday

By Thursday we’ll be anticipating the passage of a cool front from west to east. However, most of the day Thursday should again be warm and fairly humid, with mostly cloudy skies and highs likely reaching the low 80s again. By Thursday afternoon rain showers ahead of the front should reach the College Station area, and push into Houston during the overnight hours.

Friday

As of now, the best chance for widespread showers should come on Friday morning. There is not great agreement in the global models at this point, so I could see a scenario where much of Houston receives 0.5 to 1.5 inches, and another in which most of the area picks up 2 to 4 inches. This will ultimately depend on the evolution of the front as it nears Houston, and whether it slows down for a bit. In any case, expect a cloudy day Friday, with highs in the 60s. Lows on Friday night should drop into the upper 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

Veteran’s Day, on Saturday, should be a partly to mostly cloudy affair. I still have questions about temperatures and the potential for lingering rainfall, but we can probably expect a day with highs in the 60s. Rain showers will remain possible on Saturday on Sunday, although chances will be far better closer to the coast than for areas inland of Interstate 10. Sunday will be similar, with highs in the 60s and perhaps a 30 percent chance of (mostly) light rainfall.

Next week

Most of next week should see highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with lows in the 50s. Skies are likely to be partly sunny, with low but non-negligible rain chances. We’ll see a warming trend heading into next weekend, and then after that? Possibly another front. We’ll see.

El Niño is strengthening

Over at The Eyewall, Matt has written a good post to summarize the strengthening of El Niño as we get closer to winter. It’s worth checking out for the details. The bottom line for Texas is that this probably will lead to a wetter and cooler winter, with the potential for stormier weather. We’ll see.