Matt Lanza

Rainfall has been a challenge at times since late 2019 across the area. We are finally beginning to transition into true spring here, and April showers will bring most of us a decent helping of rain over the next few days.

I’m going to do this post a little different than we usually do today, partly to make it easier to explain what we’re watching and when.

Quick synopsis

Today: Showers and thunderstorms develop north and west of Houston. Severe weather is possible west of our area, with lower chances as you get closer to the Houston Metro.

Tonight: Showers and storms drop south and east into the Houston area this evening. Some storms could be strong to severe, especially west of Katy or Cypress. Heavy rain is possible, mainly early.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms possible at any time through the day, possibly most concentrated near sunrise and again in late afternoon. Heavy rain possible, especially south of Houston. Severe weather is not likely. Cooler.

Saturday night: Showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly in the evening hours, diminishing overnight.

Sunday: Showers possible, but likely a much calmer day.

Severe weather

Now, we’ll walk you through the various concerns of this event. Let’s start with the severe weather aspect, because that seems to be what we get the most questions about. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted areas mainly northwest of Houston today for the risk of severe storms.

The highest risks today will likely be 1.) hail and 2.) wind. Storms will be capable of some big hail, especially as you go west of Houston and closer to San Antonio and south of there toward Laredo. Strong wind gusts will be possible if the storms can organize more into “lines” at some point, and I expect that would be the primary thing to watch for the west side of Houston. We could see a line of storms approach by evening, which would be capable of those strong winds. As severe weather events in Houston go, this one doesn’t look especially serious, but as always, it’s something we will monitor.

Heavy rainfall/flash flooding

It is no secret that it has been dry in parts of our area in recent months. This is especially true as you go south and west of Houston. While Houston has seen roughly 50 to 75 percent of normal rainfall in 2020, places like Victoria and Corpus Christi have seen even less, more like 25 to 50 percent of normal. Thankfully, that provides us a little padding to absorb some of the initial heavy rains from this event. In general, heavy rainfall is likely in spots this evening, especially north of I-10 and west of I-45 initially. That could transition a bit south and east of there as the evening goes on, but storms would likely begin to weaken and rainfall rates should slow a bit. We should be able to handle today and tonight’s first wave with nothing worse than some minor street flooding or ponding on roadways.

Overall, rains should slow overnight and possibly fizzle out as they get closer to the coast.

Saturday’s rain will focus farther south than what we see today. The front will likely be through Houston (more on that below), which means showery weather should dominate much of the day. Closer to the front and coast, we should see thunderstorms try to develop, and that’s where heavier rain would be most likely late Saturday afternoon and evening.

Total rainfall when all is said and done Sunday morning should be on the order of 0.5 to 1.5 inches on average, with higher amounts, closer to 2 or 3 inches in spots, especially north and west of Houston or closer to Galveston and Matagorda. A quick note on Galveston: With elevated tides expected this weekend, you might notice slower drainage than usual. Most folks will be staying at home anyway, but if you do have to venture out late tomorrow, just keep that in mind.

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Officially, we won’t have a heat wave in Houston. We “only” hit 88° at Bush Airport yesterday, after Wednesday’s 90 degree high. No matter: We are in the midst of one of the hottest stretches of weather this early in the year on record. If you look at the last 4 days in Houston, our average temperature has been a whopping 78.9°. The earliest we’ve ever had a 4 day stretch that warm prior to this year was April 7-10, 1999, when we averaged 79.4° for the four days.

We broke the previous record for earliest hottest 4 day stretch (1907) by a full degree. The heat continues for one more full day before a bit of a respite this weekend.

Today

Look for more of the same today. Any low clouds this morning should eventually give way to sunshine. We’ll have a steady south wind at 10 to 15 mph (Side note: The breeze yesterday afternoon was actually quite lovely, despite the abnormally warm weather). Expect highs in the upper-80s to perhaps near 90° in spots.

We expect another muggy night ahead tonight, with lows in the upper 60s to low-70s.

Saturday

Tomorrow will start much like every other day in recent memory. But we’ll have a twist via a cold front Saturday afternoon. Expect clouds and some sun with temperatures warming into the lower 80s by late Saturday morning. Thereafter, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms with heavier downpours should begin to move west to east across the area. Any severe weather should be off to the northeast and out of the Houston area. Rain-wise, it wouldn’t be shocking to see some places receive no rainfall with the front. Those would be mainly southwest of Houston. Other areas could see a few tenths of an inch or even more if any heavier storms develop.

Temperatures will drop only a couple degrees behind the front, into the 70s, as it moves across the area between about Noon and 5 PM.

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I filled in for Eric all of last week, which feels like it was 25 years ago at this point. Between the profound changes to our daily lives and the lack of virtually any day to day change in our weather since then, it certainly has felt like a warmer version of “Groundhog Day.” Alas! As Eric has been discussing all week, changes are on the way. They begin today. And they continue next week. Break out the shorts. I explain below.

Today & tonight

Rain is falling this morning basically on a line from Columbus in the west to Conroe in the north. Some areas just west of The Woodlands have picked up close to an inch of rain so far today. We’re also watching a batch of storms between San Antonio and Victoria that will try and work across parts of the area this morning.

I think a good rule of thumb for the Houston area this morning: Rain will be most likely north or west of US-59. As we go through the morning and into this afternoon, rain will continue to creep south and east but a lot of the support for heavier rain and storms should sneak off to our east. This means while many of us will see some rain today, it will become less concentrated, more scattered, and less significant as we go into this afternoon, even with the front approaching.

Rain totals should be quite variable. Areas north of Harris County should see 1-3″ total today. For northern Fort Bend and northwest Harris Counties, expect an inch or so, give or take a few tenths. For southern Fort Bend and southeast Harris Counties to the coast, some folks may be lucky to see even a quarter-inch of rain from this.

Outside of minor street flooding issues north of the Houston area where the heaviest rain falls, we do not anticipate any real flooding problems today.

Timing-wise: The shift to offshore winds should move through northern and western suburbs soon and before midday. It should pass Downtown Houston around early afternoon and reach the coast by late afternoon. Once the front (or pre-frontal trough) passes, we’ll see temperatures stop rising. So that means there will be a wide disparity in temperatures today. We’ll drop from the 70s into the 60s in far northwest suburbs. For Houston and points south and east, we should get close to 80 or warmer again before the front clears the area and drops us into the 60s and low-70s.

Temperatures will continue to drift downward tonight, dropping into the 50s just about everywhere except coastal counties. Houston proper will bottom out near 60 degrees. Look for a few showers tonight, likely coming to an end.

Saturday

The morning should just be mostly cloudy but dry for most folks. If you’ve been trying to get outside for an hour or two each day, I would strongly recommend the morning, especially north of Houston. Showers could develop in the morning south of Houston. Look for temperatures to only slowly warm from the 50s or low-60s into the mid- to upper-60s.

Things change again Saturday afternoon. Today’s cold front is coming back north tomorrow as a warm front. Look for a burst of showers or thunderstorms as this passes by from south to north. The heaviest rain may initially be in the Houston area, but as the warm front progresses north, watch for that to quickly shift back into northern counties, so places like the Brazos Valley, Conroe, or Cleveland will see heavier rain chances again late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. All the heavier rain should lift even north of there overnight Saturday into Sunday morning.

Rain totals should be around a quarter-inch or less in Houston and points south again. We could see a half-inch to inch or a bit more in northern counties again.

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