Matt Lanza

Good Tuesday morning, and welcome back to winter. Matt here, filling in for Eric today, and I bring you one of our grayest, chilliest days in a while. By my count, the last time we had a day anything like this was at least back on November 13th, when we stayed in the mid-40s most of the day with clouds and some occasional light rain. Today will carry that vibe.

Today

The front is through, and temperatures have plummeted since yesterday’s record high of 83° at both Hobby and Bush. In fact, we’re into the 50s this morning everywhere except for the immediate coast. Temperatures in the 40s are not far behind.

In addition to chilly temperatures, we’ve got some pockets of heavy rainfall around the area this morning.

The rain is moving fast enough and it’s been dry enough of late that there isn’t any flooding to worry about, but do be prepared to encounter some wet roads and puddles this morning.

Dress warmly today. Periods of rain and occasional downpours will be possible through about midday before we transition to more of a light rain or drizzle, ending in the afternoon. Temperatures will slowly drop from where they are this morning, into the 40s this afternoon. With a fresh breeze out of the north at 15 mph, gusting to 20-25 mph, it will feel even colder.

Tonight & Wednesday

Low clouds should persist into tonight. The combination of lingering clouds and a little leftover wind should keep temperatures a bit above freezing for most areas outside. Look for Wednesday morning lows to bottom out near 40 in Houston, upper-30s in the surrounding suburbs mostly outside the Beltway, low-40s at the coast, and then mid-30s in farther outlying areas. I think even the Metro Houston icebox of Conroe will escape freezing temperatures tonight.

Wednesday will be a fine late autumn slash early winter day. Expect any remaining low clouds to scour out and the sun to take over. Temperatures will warm into the mid- to upper-50s with much lighter winds than Tuesday.

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Quick shout out and thank you to Eric for covering me last Friday so I could go home to New Jersey and visit some family. It was cold up there. Had I still been living there, it would have been fine, but after 10 years in southern climes and this amazing autumn in Houston, my tolerance for anything under 40° is gone. This autumn really has been something, hasn’t it? Eric touched on the dry weather this fall yesterday. Let’s look briefly at daily average temperatures this autumn:

Each time the temperature dips on this chart, it basically indicates that we had a cold front. We’ve had at least 13 of them this autumn. And since mid-October, we have only seen a handful of days with daily average temperatures above 70 degrees. The key this autumn is that the pace of cold fronts has been frequent enough to keep onshore flow rather weak most of the time. So we haven’t had many really muggy days. It’s been virtual Goldilocks weather and one of the nicest seasons I have experienced anywhere that I have lived in my lifetime. And it will continue this weekend.

Today & tonight

Cold front number 14 (at least) of the season will cross through Houston today. We often show you where cold fronts are located based on temperature, humidity, or wind direction change. Today, it’s actually easiest to see the front’s location based on visibility. Ahead of the front, patchy dense fog has developed, especially southwest of Houston or near the water. But you can see roughly where the front is located really well based on where 10 mile visibility shows up.

The timing of the frontal passage now looks to be between roughly 9 and 11 AM from northwest to southeast across the area. There should not be a big temperature drop behind the front, but you’ll notice that any low clouds and fog will be quickly scoured out. The wind will shift and humidity will begin dropping as well.

Skies will full of sunshine this afternoon. Another winner. We will peak in the 70s later today. Drier air behind the front will allow for a cooler night tonight, with nothing worse than a few passing high clouds. Look for lows to drop back into the low-50s, with perhaps 40s in outlying areas.

Weekend

Saturday should see sunshine and a few passing high clouds. Sunday will see some patchy morning fog, then sunshine and some building clouds. Saturday should top off in the mid- to upper-60s, Saturday night will be back in the 50s, and Sunday will be a little warmer with high temperatures in the low-70s. North winds tonight of 10-20 mph will back off Saturday and especially Sunday.

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Brace your sinuses: We will be dealing with some ups and downs over the next 7 to 10 days. We’re about to end one of the “ups” and head into a brief “down” period this weekend, but if you have weekend plans, it looks delightful. As for the forthcoming holiday weekend? I’ll be spinning the wheel of discontent to determine what to forecast for you. Read on.

Today

We’ve seen a few showers pop up this morning across the region. As I write this, some heavier downpours are ongoing from near the Galleria into Spring Branch, lifting quickly southwest to northeast. That will be the story today: A lot of clouds and occasional showers. A thunderstorm will also be possible, especially as the cold front pushes across the area late this morning and early this afternoon.

The HRRR model above depicts the front just southeast of Downtown Houston by 1 PM this afternoon. So look for the front to pass through the region between 11 AM and 3 PM before moving offshore. The temperature drop immediately behind the front will not be too impressive, but it will be noticeable. Look for temps to peak around late morning or Noon in the mid- to upper-70s. We’ll drop into the mid- to upper-60s an hour or two after the front passes by.

Weekend

Both Saturday and Sunday look splendid. Sunshine should dominate, punctuated by a few high clouds. High temperatures will get into the mid- to upper-60s.

Lows tomorrow morning should be in the 40s just about everywhere away from the coast. Sunday morning should bottom out similarly in the 40s to low-50s.

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With clouds and rain Thursday, we managed to only hit 48° for a high temperature. That was the third consecutive day of Houston not getting above 50°. When is the last time that occurred in November? That would be November 27 to 30, 1952.

No, the winter of 1952-53 was not especially cold. Houston only saw 3 nights of freezing temperatures after that November, none colder than 27°. One of the popular questions we’ve received is whether or not this cold weather so early means a cold winter. The unsatisfying answer I have to give you is that you simply can’t draw many conclusions about the subsequent winter based on this early season cold. It is just difficult to correlate it in either direction. But by any measure, this was one of the more powerful early season cold air masses in the U.S. in some time.

Now, we can discuss warming up a bit.

Today

Skies mostly cleared out overnight, and that has allowed fog to develop in many parts of the area.

Fog should dissipate over the next few hours, and by mid-morning we should be seeing the sun poke back out. Look for ample sunshine the rest of the way and high temperatures sneaking up into the upper-50s this afternoon. Break out the shorts, y’all!

Weekend

With clear skies, light winds, and a relatively dry air mass tonight, we should see temperatures actually get rather chilly again.

Expect upper-30s to around 40 or so in the city of Houston. Outlying suburbs will likely dip into the mid-30s. Folks way up north toward Cleveland or Conroe or Magnolia may drop to near-freezing. On the coast, look for Galveston to bottom out in the mid-40s.

Saturday itself looks lovely with sunshine and high temperatures around 60° or so. Expect Saturday night to be clear and chilly once more. Low temperatures will be about 3 to 5 degrees warmer than tonight, however. Look for around 40 in the city, mid- to upper-40s at the coast, and upper-30s in the northern and western suburbs.

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