Matt Lanza

Houston officially topped off at 81° yesterday, our warmest February day since way back on February 6th, when we hit 82°. More importantly, we had some sunshine yesterday, which was a pleasant surprise. We won’t be seeing much more sun until Friday.

Today

Today is starting off cloudy inland and foggy along the coast. We probably won’t see much change in that situation through the day today.

In terms of rain chances today, those will be highest north of about The Woodlands, so from Navasota over to Conroe up through Huntsville and over toward Lake Livingston; basically along or north of Highway 105. Some of the rain could be heavy at times later this afternoon up that way, and thunder will be possible too. Closer to Houston or the coast, a few showers will be possible through this afternoon but they will probably not amount to much.

Oh, and it’s going to be a warm one again today. We should make another run toward 80 degrees this afternoon, but with more clouds than yesterday, we will probably end up a little short.

Tonight

The cold front will be located somewhere north and west of Houston early this evening, probably from about Lake Livingston through Conroe through about Sealy. Through the evening, the cold front will progress into and beyond Houston to about the coast by midnight or so. Look for scattered showers and a chance of thunderstorms tonight.

Rain totals will be highest today and tonight to the north of Houston. It is possible that some folks from I-10 southward may not even see a drop of rain. I would expect a range of 0.10 to 0.25 inches of rain on average along and south of I-10 through Wednesday morning, increasing to 1 to 2 inches or so north of Conroe. A couple spots up from Conroe or Huntsville over to Lake Livingston could see as much as 3 inches or so if we see slower moving, better organized thunderstorms later today and this evening.

Temperatures aren’t going to plummet behind this front, but they will drop about 10 degrees in its wake, from the 60s into the 50s this evening. By daybreak Wednesday, we should be in the low-50s or upper 40s from Houston north and mid- to upper-50s south.

Wednesday

Despite the front being offshore, Wednesday will be a cloudy day. Showers or light rain will be ongoing in parts of the area. The most sustained rainfall on Wednesday should again be along or north of Highway 105, so we’re talking Aggieland through Conroe. We could see upwards of another inch or so in those parts. Rain may fall steadier than today a bit farther south tomorrow, closer to Tomball or The Woodlands. But in the Houston area and points south, expect only occasional light rain, drizzle, or showers.

Temperatures are not really going anywhere tomorrow. We will probably finish the day within a couple degrees of where we start the day. So, dress for generally middle 50s, perhaps a bit milder south or colder north.

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Happy Valentine’s Day, an important day in southeast Texas weather history! We have at least a couple more nice days ahead before some pretty significant changes slowly evolve next week.

Today

It’s a bit cold this morning. Temperatures are in the upper 30s to low 40s on average. A few isolated spots north of The Woodlands or out by Rosenberg in Fort Bend County are near or below freezing this morning.

The chilly temps are partially because skies are clear, which means gorgeous weather is expected today. Sunshine should dominate with mostly light winds, though a bit breezy at times still on the Gulf and in the bays. High temperatures will warm up to near 60 degrees.

Saturday

Tonight will be cool, but temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than this morning’s lows. Look for 40s in general, followed by sunshine once again for Saturday. Clouds should become a bit more noticeable as the day goes along, and high temperatures will be a bit milder. We should top off in the 60s in most spots, perhaps near 70 if clouds are slower to arrive.

Sunday

Clouds thicken up Saturday night and Sunday. With the clouds could come a few showers, especially south and east of Houston. Additionally, some fog may develop by Sunday morning in spots. Otherwise, it will just be mostly cloudy and mild, with highs reaching into the 70s after morning lows in the 50s.

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Winter returns to Houston today as a cold front has pushed through most of the region already this morning. We’ll see much colder temperatures for sure. In addition, we might have some wintry weather overnight while most of us are sleeping. It will not amount to anything that would impact travel overnight or during Thursday morning’s commute, but nevertheless we will discuss it in today’s post.

Today

The cold front is now through about 80 to 90 percent of the region. Temperatures have fallen into the 40s out near Katy and Rosenberg and up toward Lake Conroe. We’re in the mid 50s in Houston proper.

Coastal areas that are still in the 60s or even near 70 will see the front arrive over the next couple hours. The Port Arthur area may have to wait until late morning or Noon for the front to swing through.

Temperatures will settle into the 40s and 50s. Because of the early frontal passage, we may see temperatures level out or warm back to the mid 50s this afternoon before resuming their fall tonight. Look for a northwesterly breeze as well to keep it feeling a bit colder.

It has been mostly dry so far. Scattered showers should develop this morning, especially from Houston east and south. I think the quicker timing of the front is out of sync with what we need in the upper atmosphere to get showers and storms going, and that’s why this system is going to disappoint in the rain department overall.Otherwise it will be overcast to mostly cloudy today.

Tonight

The back edge of this system is going to swing through the area overnight. As it does so, it may have just enough moisture to work with to squeeze out some precipitation. And with temperatures falling into the 30s across the area, it may be just cold enough to allow for rain showers to mix with ice pellets (sleet) or snow. Again, impacts are unlikely from this, but since it would be such a novelty to see snow in Houston, it’s worth discussing more in depth.

As I wrote yesterday, the exact details of winter weather scenarios in the Southern Plains are inherently difficult to nail down (a topic for another post). For this event, we have high confidence in timing (roughly midnight through 6 AM) and a lack of direct travel impacts. We have somewhat lower confidence in what exactly will fall from the sky.

The maps above show three different higher resolution weather models and what they predict radar will look like at Midnight tonight. The Texas Tech WRF (top left) and HRRR (bottom) both are rather uninspired, meaning any precip would be light and even the risk of mixing well north of Houston would be pretty low. The NAM model (top right) is a bit more aggressive, which could yield a mix of rain and sleet or snow north of Houston, possibly even into some of our northwest suburbs when the precipitation falls at a heavier rate. Both subsets of models here seem realistically possible, given the condition of the atmosphere tonight. If there’s not enough moisture, you get the first scenario, but if we can overcome that sufficiently, you get the second scenario. It will be interesting to watch the progress of these models through the day today to see which outcome seems more likely.

Either way, accumulation is not expected from this and neither are any tangible impacts. If this changes for some reason today, we’ll update you. Regardless, who am I kidding? I’ll probably be up at 2 AM looking out the window.

Overnight lows will fall into the low or mid 30s north and west of Houston, while it should be in the upper 30s in the city and elsewhere away from the coast.

Quick reminder: A good old fashioned winter storm is underway in West Texas with winter storm warnings from Marfa through Midland into Wichita Falls and up to Oklahoma City today. Visit the National Weather Service for the latest forecast information, and visit DriveTexas.org if you are planning to travel northwest of the Houston region today or tonight.

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Changes are coming to the Houston region beginning late tonight and tomorrow morning, taking us back into a wintry pattern for a couple days. Let’s break it all down.

Today

It actually should not be a terrible day today overall. It will continue quite warm and humid, but rain chances look low for most. The best chance of showers today would be for areas east and north of Houston, with a slightly better chance late today versus earlier. So have the umbrella, but I would be fairly surprised if you actually needed to break it open.

Today will be quite warm. We should be able to reach the upper 70s with little trouble today, and I think several 80 degree readings will be reported, particularly if we can break the clouds a bit. Some patchy fog is possible in Galveston or near the bays as the day goes on. It will probably be breezy again today, but winds should not be quite as strong as Monday.

Tonight & Wednesday

The chance of showers and even a few heavier thunderstorms will pick up overnight tonight and into Wednesday morning as our cold front approaches. We are not expecting any severe weather at this time.

In terms of timing, I think the front will approach the northwest suburbs between 10 PM and 1 AM tonight. From there, it gets a little trickier to exactly time out, but in general, a southeastward push of colder air should work across the region from the north through the morning.

Temperatures early tomorrow will be all over the place. Behind the front, essentially from Houston north and west, tomorrow morning should already be in the upper 40s through mid 50s. South and east of Houston may be in the low to mid 60s. The front will probably stall over Houston in the early morning, then resume a slow south and east slog by to mid late morning, reaching the coast by Noon. If you’re still on the warm side of the front tomorrow, look for a slow, steady 10-15 degree drop in temperatures after it passes. We should all drop back into the 40s (low 40s N & W, upper 40s near the coast) Wednesday afternoon. These shallow, cold air masses tend to overperform more often than they underperform around here, so I’m taking a slightly more aggressive posture with things today

In addition, it will be breezy behind the front, adding an extra chill.

Rain totals will range from a half-inch or less south of Houston to perhaps near an inch in a few spots north. Showers should taper off in the afternoon on Wednesday.

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