Matt Lanza

As we’ve been discussing this week, the Houston area will see showers and thunderstorms later today or tonight and severe weather will be a possibility. I’m going to walk you through the day and hopefully provide answers to most of your questions.

Overview

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is continuing to keep the majority of the Houston area in the enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms today.

Based on what we’ve seen in modeling, for the Houston area, this threat will primarily occur much later today, after 5 PM and more likely closer to Midnight. So if you don’t see any rain or hear any thunder through this evening, do not be shocked. There may be isolated severe storms in the evening hours before a squall line of widespread strong to severe storms moves through just before midnight.

The severe weather threat quickly ends from west to east after midnight. The weekend looks fine.

This morning

Look for clouds and maybe a few passing showers. No severe weather will occur this morning. Temperatures, which actually rose a couple degrees overnight will continue slowly warming through the 70s. It will begin to turn breezy again, and winds could pick up to 15 to 25 mph or even stronger, especially along the coast and bays.

This afternoon (Noon to 4 PM)

We should see clouds, wind, and showers at times continue. Temperatures will warm into the mid- to upper-70s. We do not believe that the Houston area will see much in the way of thunderstorms this afternoon. Any strong to severe storms through afternoon will more likely occur way off to our north and west, well out of the metro area and region (think: Hill Country or perhaps up toward Tyler).

This evening (4 PM to 9 PM)

This is the part of the forecast in which we have the lowest confidence. Our best guess right now is that most of us will only see a couple passing showers in this timeframe. However, there is some chance that a couple rogue thunderstorms may begin to develop. Should this occur, any of those storms could quickly turn severe with hail, damaging winds, or even a tornado. To be clear: We believe this will very much be the exception, not the rule in the evening hours. Still, if you’re out this evening, ensure you have a way to receive weather warnings, just in case things get a little more chaotic than we are expecting right now.

Tonight (9 PM to 3 AM)

This will be the main timeframe that we see impacts from this event. Severe storms in Hill Country and the I-35 corridor should have congealed into an organized squall line by later this evening. Ahead of the line, we should see more numerous showers and a few thunderstorms begin to develop here. Any of those storms could become strong to severe, but it seems as though the primary concern will come from the squall line itself, which is going to quickly sweep across the region toward midnight.

As of right now, we expect the line to hit College Station around 9 or 10 PM, Huntsville through Sealy by 10 or 11 PM, the majority of the Houston metro area between 10 PM and Midnight, Galveston through Lake Jackson between 11 PM and 1 AM, and Beaumont/Port Arthur between about 1 to 3 AM. All those times are approximate and give or take an hour or so.

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Happy New Year to you! So it rained a bit yesterday. Most areas received a quarter-inch to half-inch of rain, and just a few higher amounts to the north and along the coast.

We could certainly use some rain, and while the totals were fairly low overall, the pace of mostly steady light to moderate rain and just some occasional embedded downpours was helpful. We will now return to pleasant weather for the weekend.

Today & tonight

First, some fog. Use caution this morning, as fog has developed in parts of the area, restricting visibility. Look for any fog to lift by late morning, leaving us with partly to mostly sunny conditions. We should top off in the mid-60s or a touch warmer today. It will be a chilly night tonight with mainly clear conditions. We should drop into the low- to mid-40s in the city and around 40° in outlying areas.

Weekend

Saturday should be gorgeous. Expect sunshine and mid-60s once more. We will cool back into the 40s or low-50s Saturday night under continued clear skies. Sunday looks mainly sunny again. It will be warmer, with highs approaching or exceeding 70° in most spots. Winds should be light Sunday, but if you’ll be out on the bay Friday night or Saturday morning, it will be breezy with offshore wind gusts approaching 25 mph or so.

Monday

Onshore flow will be with us Monday, helping temperatures to warm from the 50s into the 70s in most places. We will see a few more clouds on Monday as well, so call it partly sunny.

Tuesday and beyond

Our next cold front is penciled in for Tuesday morning. As of right now, the front does not appear to have too much going for it as it passes through Southeast Texas, so while a brief passing shower will be possible, I think most places will stay dry.

Behind the front, it will turn breezy and cooler. Expect morning lows Tuesday around 50° or so, depending on the exact timing of the front. We will clear out quickly behind it, and warm into the low-60s. Temperatures will stay chilly behind the front for Wednesday, with morning lows in the 40s, if not some 30s in spots. We should warm back up through the 60s, perhaps into the 70s again toward next weekend, as onshore flow takes hold.

The details beyond next Wednesday are fuzzy, but I would expect us to be discussing some more rain chances, fog, and the potential for another cold front by next weekend or so. There are some questions surrounding that, but forecasts for the day 6 through 10 timeframe suggest above normal rainfall.

We will dive more into that topic in Monday’s conversation. More for you then. Enjoy the beautiful weekend!

Good morning. As we begin to close out 2019, it will continue to feel a bit springlike before a Sunday cold front cools us back off a bit.

Today

Dense fog is the main forecast issue, and it will continue to be the biggest problem today and probably tomorrow. Fog is almost everywhere this morning, and it will be stubborn and slow to clear from inland areas back to the coast.

Some coastal or bay-adjacent locations and some other places, mainly south and east of Houston may hold on to fog well into this afternoon. Outside of the fog, it will gradually turn partly cloudy and quite mild. We hit 76° yesterday, and we will probably come close to that again today.

Saturday & Saturday night

Tomorrow should begin similarly to today with widespread fog, especially closer to the bays and coast. Again, that could linger into afternoon. As the day goes on, look for shower chances to slowly increase, mainly north and west of Houston. We’ll start in the 60s Saturday and by afternoon, look for highs perhaps near 80° in Houston. The cold front will push through the Houston area from northwest to southeast between Midnight and 5 AM or so Sunday. During that time, almost everyone should see at least some rain and thunderstorms.

We don’t anticipate too much rain when all is said and done, but a quarter-inch to half-inch or so on average, with lower amounts south and west of Houston and higher amounts north and east being the most likely outcome. Any fog risks will end behind the front as well. Some storms, especially north and east of Houston could be a bit strong overnight.

Saturday will warm up from the 60s in the morning into the 70s during the afternoon. Behind the cold front, temperatures will drop into the 50s by Sunday morning.

Sunday & Monday

Some lingering showers are possible Sunday morning. By afternoon, any remaining clouds should rapidly dissipate, and we are going to be left with delightful weather for both the second half of Sunday and Monday. Look for sunshine and high temperatures in the 60s both afternoons. Morning lows will be in the 40s for most folks on Monday morning, though outlying areas could sneak into the upper-30s.

New Year’s Eve & Day

Yesterday, it appeared that a storm system would begin to approach on Tuesday, bringing a slight chance of showers for New Year’s Eve. That has slowed down today, pushing any rain chances to Wednesday. The image below shows the last 6 runs of the European model’s forecast of rainfall from 6 PM to Midnight on New Year’s Eve

What you’re seeing is that until the most recent run, the model indicated shower chances. The latest version holds the rain back for another 12 to 18 hours. What does this mean? It means check back with us on Monday while this system’s timing gets sorted out over the weekend. We don’t trust this model explicitly and would lean toward increasing rain chances after the calendar flips to 2020, with rain becoming most likely during the afternoon and evening hours of Wednesday. Either way, our chances of a widespread, meaningful rain and some thunderstorms continue looking higher as we move into the new year.

Daytime highs should be in the 60s on both days. For New Year’s Eve celebrations, look for temperatures dropping into the upper-40s. We will update this forecast for you on Monday for sure.

We have continued to amass nice stretches of weather here in Southeast Texas over the last couple weeks, as our seemingly endless gorgeous autumn continues. We have one small bump in the road to get through today and perhaps tomorrow before we resume our regularly scheduled programming for a few more days.

Today

We’re starting off a good bit warmer this morning than in recent mornings.The map below shows the difference in temperature between 5 AM this morning and 5 AM Thursday morning.

Locations east of Houston are running about 10 to 15 degrees milder than yesterday morning, while from Houston to points west, temperatures are as much as 20 to 25 degrees warmer. This is because clouds have increased overnight. While there may be a few pockets of sunshine around this morning, expect those to fade as the day progresses.

It may look like rain is imminent at times today, but it may take a bit before you actually see any reach the ground. The air is still a bit dry after our recent nice weather, so it needs some time to saturate. Overall, a few light showers, light rain, or sprinkles may be observed today but for the most part, it likely won’t rain much before sunset. The best odds of any measurable rain will be west or well south of Houston.

Cloud cover should keep temperatures in check. Look for highs in the 50s for most folks.

Tonight

Houston will be caught between the best ingredients for rainfall tonight, with one batch to our south and another well east into Louisiana. Look for scattered showers here in the Houston area. The best chance for rainfall and some thunder will be to Houston’s south, closer to Matagorda Bay or Corpus Christi. There could also be some scattered showers north and west of Houston at times through the night. By Saturday morning, it is likely some of us will have seen a little measurable rain, while some others may not have seen much of anything. Overnight lows tonight will probably be in the mid- to upper-40s.

Saturday

It appears that Saturday will be a continuation of this trend. The best chance for more nuisance rain will be along the coast or south of Houston, again toward Matagorda Bay or Corpus Christi.

Rain chances should end by Saturday afternoon. Total rainfall is not going to be anything spectacular for most of us.

Saturday won’t be the prettiest, as clouds dominate with highs in the 50s. We could see a few breaks of sun in the afternoon. A bit of a breeze could develop along the coast later Saturday and linger into Sunday, with some 15 to 20 mph gusts possible.

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