Matt Lanza

Quick shout out and thank you to Eric for covering me last Friday so I could go home to New Jersey and visit some family. It was cold up there. Had I still been living there, it would have been fine, but after 10 years in southern climes and this amazing autumn in Houston, my tolerance for anything under 40° is gone. This autumn really has been something, hasn’t it? Eric touched on the dry weather this fall yesterday. Let’s look briefly at daily average temperatures this autumn:

Each time the temperature dips on this chart, it basically indicates that we had a cold front. We’ve had at least 13 of them this autumn. And since mid-October, we have only seen a handful of days with daily average temperatures above 70 degrees. The key this autumn is that the pace of cold fronts has been frequent enough to keep onshore flow rather weak most of the time. So we haven’t had many really muggy days. It’s been virtual Goldilocks weather and one of the nicest seasons I have experienced anywhere that I have lived in my lifetime. And it will continue this weekend.

Today & tonight

Cold front number 14 (at least) of the season will cross through Houston today. We often show you where cold fronts are located based on temperature, humidity, or wind direction change. Today, it’s actually easiest to see the front’s location based on visibility. Ahead of the front, patchy dense fog has developed, especially southwest of Houston or near the water. But you can see roughly where the front is located really well based on where 10 mile visibility shows up.

The timing of the frontal passage now looks to be between roughly 9 and 11 AM from northwest to southeast across the area. There should not be a big temperature drop behind the front, but you’ll notice that any low clouds and fog will be quickly scoured out. The wind will shift and humidity will begin dropping as well.

Skies will full of sunshine this afternoon. Another winner. We will peak in the 70s later today. Drier air behind the front will allow for a cooler night tonight, with nothing worse than a few passing high clouds. Look for lows to drop back into the low-50s, with perhaps 40s in outlying areas.

Weekend

Saturday should see sunshine and a few passing high clouds. Sunday will see some patchy morning fog, then sunshine and some building clouds. Saturday should top off in the mid- to upper-60s, Saturday night will be back in the 50s, and Sunday will be a little warmer with high temperatures in the low-70s. North winds tonight of 10-20 mph will back off Saturday and especially Sunday.

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Brace your sinuses: We will be dealing with some ups and downs over the next 7 to 10 days. We’re about to end one of the “ups” and head into a brief “down” period this weekend, but if you have weekend plans, it looks delightful. As for the forthcoming holiday weekend? I’ll be spinning the wheel of discontent to determine what to forecast for you. Read on.

Today

We’ve seen a few showers pop up this morning across the region. As I write this, some heavier downpours are ongoing from near the Galleria into Spring Branch, lifting quickly southwest to northeast. That will be the story today: A lot of clouds and occasional showers. A thunderstorm will also be possible, especially as the cold front pushes across the area late this morning and early this afternoon.

The HRRR model above depicts the front just southeast of Downtown Houston by 1 PM this afternoon. So look for the front to pass through the region between 11 AM and 3 PM before moving offshore. The temperature drop immediately behind the front will not be too impressive, but it will be noticeable. Look for temps to peak around late morning or Noon in the mid- to upper-70s. We’ll drop into the mid- to upper-60s an hour or two after the front passes by.

Weekend

Both Saturday and Sunday look splendid. Sunshine should dominate, punctuated by a few high clouds. High temperatures will get into the mid- to upper-60s.

Lows tomorrow morning should be in the 40s just about everywhere away from the coast. Sunday morning should bottom out similarly in the 40s to low-50s.

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With clouds and rain Thursday, we managed to only hit 48° for a high temperature. That was the third consecutive day of Houston not getting above 50°. When is the last time that occurred in November? That would be November 27 to 30, 1952.

No, the winter of 1952-53 was not especially cold. Houston only saw 3 nights of freezing temperatures after that November, none colder than 27°. One of the popular questions we’ve received is whether or not this cold weather so early means a cold winter. The unsatisfying answer I have to give you is that you simply can’t draw many conclusions about the subsequent winter based on this early season cold. It is just difficult to correlate it in either direction. But by any measure, this was one of the more powerful early season cold air masses in the U.S. in some time.

Now, we can discuss warming up a bit.

Today

Skies mostly cleared out overnight, and that has allowed fog to develop in many parts of the area.

Fog should dissipate over the next few hours, and by mid-morning we should be seeing the sun poke back out. Look for ample sunshine the rest of the way and high temperatures sneaking up into the upper-50s this afternoon. Break out the shorts, y’all!

Weekend

With clear skies, light winds, and a relatively dry air mass tonight, we should see temperatures actually get rather chilly again.

Expect upper-30s to around 40 or so in the city of Houston. Outlying suburbs will likely dip into the mid-30s. Folks way up north toward Cleveland or Conroe or Magnolia may drop to near-freezing. On the coast, look for Galveston to bottom out in the mid-40s.

Saturday itself looks lovely with sunshine and high temperatures around 60° or so. Expect Saturday night to be clear and chilly once more. Low temperatures will be about 3 to 5 degrees warmer than tonight, however. Look for around 40 in the city, mid- to upper-40s at the coast, and upper-30s in the northern and western suburbs.

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Thursday provided some mostly welcome rain for a large swath of the region. For the city of Houston, anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of rain fell. Generally lesser amounts fell to the north and higher amounts to the south.

The bullseyes were near Barker Reservoir and out through Cinco Ranch, where 4 to nearly 5 inches of rain was reported on Thursday. Another bullseye was noted from Friendswood through Kemah and San Leon, where 2 to 4 inches generally fell. Dreary weather hangs in today, but a nice weekend awaits.

Today

The title of this post includes the word “drearies.” Debate whether or not that’s a real word, but you can guess what it means. Look for clouds all day today. In addition, the region should see periods of light rain or drizzle throughout the day. A period of steadier rain is possible for a time this morning or afternoon. You can see some of that moving across the state on radar.

Additional rain totals today will range from about a tenth of an inch to perhaps up to a half-inch where the steadier rain falls. Temperatures will not move much, likely staying in the low- to mid-50s most of the day.

Showers should wrap up early this evening.

Weekend

Clouds could be a bit stubborn on Saturday, but skies will either clear out before sunrise or they’ll clear out on Saturday morning. Either way, a mainly sunny afternoon is expected. After morning lows in the 40s, high temperatures will peak in the low- to mid-60s.

After a cool start (around 50°) on Sunday morning, look for sunshine and highs in the upper-60s to low-70s Sunday afternoon. Sunday will see plenty of sunshine, though clouds could increase later in the day.

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