Matt Lanza

We’ve arrived at the doorstep of another weekend, which naturally means another chance of rain and storms. Let’s discuss how things should unfold.

Today

First, we’ll end the week on a mostly quiet note. Look for a good deal of clouds today. A few showers were seen on radar this morning down toward Matagorda Bay. Models aren’t especially bullish on rain chances today, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see some passing showers or even a thunderstorm, especially along and southeast of US-59 today. Temperatures will range from near the upper-70s to perhaps 80 or so with any sunshine this afternoon.

Tonight

Clouds will thicken up further as onshore flow ramps up. As moisture increases over the area, I expect a good deal of showers to develop and lift from south to north across the region. A thunderstorm is also possible. Most of us should just see a little rain tonight and Saturday morning. At this point nothing significant is expected. Low temperatures will be quite warm tonight and Saturday morning, barely dropping below 70°, if at all.

Saturday

Like last weekend, I am going to set you up with a user’s guide Q&A to this weekend’s storm.

When is it going to rain on Saturday? Overnight showers may try to diminish on Saturday morning. But any break should be relatively brief New showers and some thunderstorms will form in the later morning, especially on a line from Victoria to Sealy to Conroe to Lake Livingston. The best concentration of storms will be north of I-10 and probably along or north of Highway 105. This would basically be Conroe, Huntsville, Lake Livingston, Madisonville, etc. That’s also where the best chance for severe weather will be in our area. The really nasty stuff will be way off to our north, up toward Lufkin and Shreveport, LA. More on severe weather in a second.

You’ve mentioned severe weather. What do I need to worry about this weekend? The Storm Prediction Center has adjusted their outlook again today.

Most of the Houston area is in a “slight” risk for severe weather. That increases dramatically to enhanced and then moderate as you head toward Lufkin and Shreveport. As mentioned above gusty winds and hail will be the main severe weather concerns this weekend around Houston. At this point, it would appear that Saturday’s storms will not be of the same coverage or intensity as last weekend’s severe storms were in the Houston area. Still, we’ll keep tabs on things to make sure that doesn’t change. As far as tornadoes go, they are unlikely in and around Houston.

So what about the Houston area? What should we expect? While the heaviest storms and rain will lift off to the north of Houston, I do expect at least a line of at least broken storms to develop Saturday afternoon.I would probably expect that line of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, most likely between 2 and 6 PM from west to east across the Houston area. I don’t expect it will rain that entire time, but look for a short period of some heavy rain and thunder as that passes through. To reiterate, if storms become severe, the main threats will be strong winds and hail. The most likely portions of the area to see this will be to the north and east of Central Houston. Again, this shouldn’t be like last weekend, but we will keep watch.

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We’ve got some active weather ahead this weekend, so let’s jump in and tell you everything we know right now.

Today

Right off the bat, if you have plans today, we do not foresee any serious issues. But (there’s always a “but”) that said, areas of fog have developed this morning across the entire area.

The fog inland should gradually lift this morning, but it could persist along the coast well into this afternoon. Dense fog advisories are posted until 9 AM inland and until Noon at the coast. We’ll be partly to mostly cloudy and warm otherwise today. Highs should approach at least 80 degrees, if not the low-80s.

Tonight

For Houston, we don’t anticipate anything significant tonight, though a few showers or thunderstorms could develop after midnight, primarily north of I-10 and west of I-45, particularly out toward Sealy or Columbus up through Brenham or College Station. And even then, I really don’t think it would be anything other than very isolated through early Saturday morning. Look for low temperatures to only drop into the upper-60s.

In addition to an isolated shower or storm, fog should redevelop along the coast, possibly spreading inland again, though it shouldn’t be quite as widespread as today.

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After mostly nice weather this week, we’re heading into the weekend warmer, but with a cold front on the way. That leads to unsettled weather. Let’s discuss.

Today

I don’t think we have any real issues today, but it wouldn’t be the biggest shocker in the world if a handful of us see a shower this morning as a weak disturbance pushes through. The best chances will be north of Houston, but ultimately, I do think most of the area will stay rather dry today. Onshore winds will continue to pump up temperatures, humidity, and provide a good deal of clouds. Expect us to reach about 80 degrees this afternoon.

Saturday

Tomorrow should behave a lot like today early on. Expect clouds, warm temps, humidity, and a chance of a shower through late morning. It gets trickier in the afternoon. The cold front is going to arrive in Houston sometime around mid- to late-afternoon. Because of that, expect a “dress for two seasons” day on Saturday.

The morning will be warm and humid, and at some point in the afternoon, it’s going to get chilly. We may reach 70-75° in the far northern reaches of the area, call it Huntsville or College Station. Once the front passes, temperatures will drop into the 60s and 50s. In Houston itself, we will probably hit 75-80 degrees, with temperatures falling into the 60s after 3-4 PM. South of Houston should get to about 80 degrees away from the immediate coast, and the front will arrive in the evening, allowing temperatures to join the rest of the region in the 60s or 50s.

For everyone, expect just a few showers as the front moves through, but the temperature drop will be the hallmark of this frontal passage.

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The weather pattern over Houston is making up for months and months of wet, dreary weather since last fall. As Eric alluded to yesterday, we’re going to end up below normal on rainfall for the month of March. I’ll take it one step further: Since late January, we have been exceedingly dry.

For Harris County, we have only averaged about 70 percent of what is normal over the last 60 days. Go a bit west of Houston, and parts of Central Texas from San Antonio through Austin are averaging about 50 percent or less of normal. Thanks to weeks and months of wet weather prior to the last 45-60 days, we are not in drought, nor are we even abnormally dry according to the latest Drought Monitor report. With an El Niño event ongoing and likely to continue, it would be surprising for this drier weather to continue (El Niño springs are usually fairly wet in Texas). But this will be a story to watch over the next few weeks.

Today

Unfortunately, our nicest week of the year so far has been marred by varying and unrelated forms of air quality issues. It has either been the situation in Deer Park with the ITC Terminal fire (which at least this morning seems under control), obscenely high levels of pollen, smoke from numerous agricultural fires across the Southeast leading to increased particulate matter, or as in today, high levels of ozone.

The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality has declared today an ozone action day, meaning we should see high levels of ozone and generally poor air quality. These types of days aren’t necessarily infrequent in Houston, but it’s just compounding our issues here of late. But, hey, other than that, it should be great today! Expect wall to wall sunshine with some passing high clouds today. We should manage upper-70s to around 80° in some spots.

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