The weekend went about as advertised across southeast Texas with heat and humidity and a distinct lack of rain showers most of the time. We generally topped off in the mid-90s, with warm mornings. Much of this week is likely to play out in a similar fashion. It’s the end of the week when things get more difficult and possible forecast outcomes vary vastly as we will explain below.
Today & Tuesday
We expect both days to carry over the weekend weather: Expect sunshine and hot temperatures. An isolated shower can’t entirely be ruled out, but consider yourself lucky if you see one. We should do mid-90s today and middle to even upper-90s tomorrow.
High temperatures today will sizzle once again. (NWS via Weather Bell)
Take your usual heat precautions the next couple days, as heat index values should top off around 105°, and a few places may flirt with heat advisory criteria.
Wednesday & Thursday
Forecast confidence begins to slump backwards a bit for midweek. As of now, Wednesday looks similar to Tuesday, with mid- to upper-90s and high humidity, sunshine, and limited to nil rain chances. Thursday becomes more challenging. The disturbance to our east in the Gulf of Mexico will determine if we again reach for the upper-90s with dry weather or if we do low- to mid-90s and increasing scattered shower chances. We should hopefully have some clarity on this tomorrow.
As promised, things quieted down nicely on the Fourth after some morning fireworks. This time of year, it’s always difficult to say whether it’s good news or bad news to have “nice” weather for an extended stretch. Those cooling showers can be welcome in midsummer, but we will be void of them almost completely through the weekend. Stick with us til the end of today’s post as we will discuss some possible tropical mischief in the Gulf for late next week.
Today & weekend
Basically, if you have outdoor plans this weekend, your only concern will be heat. Expect sunshine in heaping quantities today, tomorrow, and Sunday. A shower is always possible in summer, but almost all of us should be dry through the weekend. We will see high temperatures in the mid-90s and lows bottoming out in the mid-70s the next few days. Humidity, as it always is in summer, will be high across the region. So, just take it easy and stay hydrated this weekend.
Monday & Tuesday
We will probably see an extension of this dry, sunny, hot pattern into early next week. Expect ample sunshine and only very, very minor shower chances Monday and Tuesday. We will call it more mid-90s both days with mid- to upper-70s for lows.
The rainfall forecast for the next 5 days over Texas. Can you find the area of high pressure? (NOAA via Pivotal Weather)
If you missed it, Eric and I have decided to start doing tropical updates for you every week or two through hurricane season. We had our first one last week, which was rather detailed. This week, we’ll be a little more succinct!
Tropical outlook in a sentence
The Atlantic basin continues to be void of much interesting tropical activity, and it will likely continue that way for the next week to 10 days.
Near-term summary
Dust, dust, dust. And shear. Those two things are characterizing the Atlantic basin today. Dust from the Sahara Desert continues to roar across the Atlantic. This tends to be a fairly common feature in the early parts of hurricane season. We’ve noticed it a lot more in recent years, and I’m not sure if that’s because of some functional change or just because our observational capabilities have gotten so much more sophisticated. Either way, the last few years have seen a lot of Saharan dust in the basin in June and July.
Widespread Saharan dust is spread out across virtually the entire Atlantic basin right now, which should help limit tropical activity for a little while longer. (University of Wisconsin/NOAA)
From the satellite image above, you can see where dust (yellow/orange/red) is located, as well as cloud cover (gray). Virtually the entire Atlantic basin is littered with Saharan dust right now. This includes the Gulf of Mexico. Some of that thicker dust is likely to appear in Houston’s skies in the days ahead.
Why does this matter? Well, Saharan dust is extremely important globally. It’s a major source of nutrients for phytoplankton, and it helps to fertilize the Amazon. It obviously doesn’t come without problems, as the dust can irritate those who have sensitive respiratory systems, allergies, or asthma. It reduces air quality, and we may well see that here in Houston for late this week.
But from a tropical point of view, Saharan dust can help hinder systems from developing. The dust is indicative of dry air in the atmosphere. Obviously, hurricanes need moist air. Think about our weather here in Houston. On days with a “cap” in the atmosphere, there’s a barrier that exists preventing or limiting how high cloud tops can go. That reduces our thunderstorm chances. The Saharan air layer can act as a “cap” as well, preventing storms from billowing up. It doesn’t entirely prevent tropical storms or hurricanes from developing, but it can severely limit how well developed they can become. So curse the dust when it irritates your sinuses, but thank it for helping to keep the early part of tropical season under wraps.
Eric and I had a conversation this spring to discuss some new ideas for the site, and ways to help readers navigate hurricane season. We absolutely feel people’s uneasiness every time it rains here, and a general sensitivity to the rumor and speculation that springs to life during hurricane season. So we have decided that every week or two, we will publish a more in-depth outlook for tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico so that you understand what’s happening, and what could happen in the next couple weeks.
Tropical outlook in a sentence
Tropical development is unlikely over the next week or so across the Atlantic Basin, but we are eyeing July for a possible increase in activity.
Near-term summary
Historically, we would watch the Bay of Campeche and Gulf this time of year for development.
Historically, storms have formed in the Gulf and Bay of Campeche in the final third of June. (NOAA/NHC)
As of now, no tropical activity is expected over the next week, as conditions should remain mostly unfavorable for storms to develop in those areas and elsewhere.
Looking at satellite imagery from Tuesday morning, we have a couple tropical waves moving across the eastern Caribbean and a couple disorganized waves elsewhere.
The tropics show a few disorganized disturbances and mostly calm conditions today. (College of DuPage)
None of these waves is a candidate for development as of right now, and if anything, they should fizzle out and stay safely away. So: Good news, as we just don’t see much of anything out there.
Weather model fantasy-land
One of the biggest hurdles to good tropical information during hurricane season in the social media era is a tendency for folks to mention a model solution with zero context or just because it shows something extreme. You’ll see something like, “This model is just one solution but it shows a category 10 hurricane in the Gulf in 15 days! You probably shouldn’t believe it, but here it is anyway.”
Is there anything showing up on the models in days 10-15? Not at this time. The GFS model, which is the most frequent offender with fantasy-land storms is quiet right now. The GFS tends to have a bias early in the hurricane season, and then again later in the hurricane season. The bias is worst in May and early June, where it can often spin up systems in the Caribbean that never materialize. I tried to run the math on it last season, and during the month of May 2018, 79% of the time the GFS showed a storm beyond day 10, it never materialized.
Now, the GFS model was recently upgraded which should hopefully lead to reduced false alarms, but we won’t know much about that in practice until next May. Within the season, it still seems to show more false alarms than not, and Eric and I try to sort through the noise for you. Let this just serve as a reminder to be cautious of extreme modeled solutions posted on social media without much context.
