Matt Lanza

Catastrophic flooding event will continue in Houston

Good morning. Heartbroken and sick over some of the news and stories this morning. Thoughts and prayers go out to everyone affected. Unfortunately we need to talk about the weather, as this will continue.

Off the top, we can’t tell you much more than to follow instructions of local government, NWS Houston, and Harris County Flood Control. Stay tuned to a media outlet using radio/TV.

A Civil Emergency Message has been posted regarding folks trapped in their homes.

Via NWS Houston and Jeff Lindner: Residents trying to escape rising floodwaters should go on their roof, do NOT go into the attic. Also if calling 911, stay on the phone until it is answered.

I am directly copying Eric’s words from overnight here:

“Speaking of that, for the first time ever, the National Weather Service just issued what it is calling a “Flash Flood Emergency for Catastrophic Life Threatening Flooding.” And not to sound too flippant, but that sounds really bad. You should probably heed their advice—WHICH IS SIMPLY DO NOT TRAVEL. DO NOT IMPEDE WATER RESCUES IN PROGRESS.

Is that clear enough?

(National Weather Service)

If you home has flooded, then we are truly sorry. No words from us can begin to address that problem. But we can say that millions of people have been through this before, and it can be done. Some good, basic advice, can be found here. And although this handbook from FEMA is dated, it provides detailed steps to take care of yourself, your family, and your property in the aftermath of a flooding event.”

Weather going forward

As of 6:30 AM rains continue to fall heavily, at a rate of 1-3″ per hour in spots.

No words. It continues. (College of DuPage)

 

Over the next 12-18 hours, expect this cycle to continue. Waves of rain, heavy at times. There will probably be breaks. What this does is both limit how bayous can drain and worsens flooding in spots. It’s bad and it’s going to likely stay bad through the day. Some folks may see another 6-12″ of rain today and tonight.

Rain will continue in similar fashion on Monday as Harvey drifts south and then begins to make the turn back north. The setup begins to change a bit on Tuesday, but at this point I still think periods of heavy rain are likely. Harvey should finally move far enough north on Wednesday to not shut off the rain, but reduce it to manageable levels.

In addition to the rain, Tornado Warnings continue cropping up from time to time. This threat will continue through the day today, with hopes that it will be at a slower pace than the last two days.

We’ll have another update around 9 AM or so. Please be safe.

Posted at 6:40 AM Sunday by Matt

Harvey inching closer to Houston

Quick note to lead: A Tornado Watch is posted for the entire area through 1 AM. We’ve just had numerous reports of confirmed tornadoes in northwest Harris County. We’ve had multiple other confirmed tornadoes since last night. While our focus remains on flooding, this tornado threat is a serious concern also. Make sure you have a weather radio or have the emergency notifications setting switched to “on” on your mobile device to get warnings for your location through tonight, as periodic tornadoes will be possible throughout the region.

Tropical Storm Harvey continues to explore Victoria and the Golden Crescent of Texas this evening. The center as of 5 PM was near Cuero in DeWitt County. Over the last several hours, Harvey has assumed a bit of an eastward drift. This has been fairly well captured on most weather models, and it’s why I think the most critical part of this storm’s legacy in Houston will play out over the next 18-24 hours. Let me explain.

Since about Wednesday or Thursday, it appeared that Harvey’s closest approach to Houston as a moderate tropical storm would be late tonight into Sunday before it drifted back west and south and further weakened. Though it would continue flinging periods of heavy rain our way, the core would be mostly out of the picture after tomorrow. Some of our shorter-term and highest resolution weather models are suggesting that Harvey’s center drifts a little closer to Houston tonight, bringing some of that core to the western part of the city, while continued onshore flow of moisture helps new rain and storms to form.

This would mean a major uptick in rainfall across much of the Houston area tonight. We’ve been fortunate so far for the most part. Bayous have filled, streets have flooded, but much of it has been manageable by our fairly rigorous rainfall standards here in Houston.

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Saturday AM Harvey transitioning from hurricane to long rainstorm

Harvey has arrived in Houston.

Numerous flash flood warnings are posted right now across the Greater Houston area, as an eastern flank feeder band of the storm flows ashore.

Harvey slowly meandering between Victoria and Goliad, shipping intense rains into Houston. (College of DuPage)

 

These heavy rains are likely to continue throughout the day today. There may be lulls at times, but the dominant weather we see in Houston today is heavy rainfall, leading to street and possibly bayou flooding.

Rain totals have begun to add up. Generally 1-3″ north and east and 3-6″+ south and west since yesterday.

Rain totals through 6:45 AM Saturday are beginning to add up. (Harris County Flood Control)

 

As the day progresses, rain totals will balloon further. Some models show really impressive rain totals in the Houston area today. I would expect an average of 4-8″ today across the region, with higher amounts possible, especially on the south and west sides and perhaps a few spots east of the city with lesser amounts.

Bottom line in all this, you need to be prepared for significant travel inconvenience and disruption today. And if you can stay put, please do so.

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Category four Harvey slowly approaches landfall near Rockport

As of 7:45 PM Friday, Hurricane Harvey has been officially upgraded by the National Hurricane Center to a category four storm with 130 mph maximum sustained winds. Port Aransas just gusted to 105 mph as the eyewall approaches. Should Harvey make landfall at its current intensity, it will be the strongest storm (by wind) to hit Texas since 1961’s Hurricane Carla (which came ashore just north of where Harvey should) and the strongest in the U.S. (by wind) since Charley hit Southwest Florida in 2004.

Haunting: Harvey strengthens to a Category 4 hurricane as it approaches landfall near Port Aransas and Rockport. (NOAA)

 

Coastal Texas from near Corpus Christi north to Matagorda are being absolutely pummeled by wind and squalls  and they will continue to deal with this in the hours ahead. Few words needed to describe the situation there, and our thoughts are with folks that live in that region.

Here in the Houston area, things are also active. We’ve had numerous tornado warnings issued throughout the day today, mainly south of US-59 and I-10. As these squalls and feeder bands on the north side of Harvey come ashore, they are capable of producing brief tornadoes, mainly in the coastal counties. These are extremely difficult to warn on because they spin up so quickly, and the NWS Houston office has done an outstanding job thus far with them. If you are placed under a tornado warning tonight, do take it seriously and seek shelter at your location (lowest level of the building in an interior room). Have a way to receive warnings overnight. A tornado watch remains posted until at least 2 AM for the Houston area, along and south of US-59 to I-10.

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