Matt Lanza

More on Houston’s cooler future

Houston’s got some nicer weather coming for a few days this weekend before we get a little more unsettled next week. I want to go more in depth on the potential for a pattern change starting in mid-November, so there’s a pretty detailed section on that below. Let’s jump in.

Rest of Today

We’re starting off warm again this morning across the region. Galveston is likely to at least tie their record for warmest morning low for this date (74° in 2000).

Another extremely warm morning in Southeast Texas for November. (NOAA)
Another extremely warm morning in Southeast Texas for November. (NOAA)

Expect a mild afternoon with high temps in the low 80s. Scattered showers on Monday focused west of I-45, and then yesterday, they focused mainly between Houston and Lake Charles. Today? There is an organized line of weakening thunderstorms southeast of Dallas this morning, but I don’t quite think those will make it here. Best chance for some steadier rain though would be northwest of a Conroe to Hempstead line this morning. The air over Southeast Texas is pretty stable, so while there will likely be some isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon, especially north or west of the city. I’m guessing most of us will stay dry, but your best bet today is to carry an umbrella as an insurance policy, knowing there’s probably a good chance you won’t need it.

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Spooky quiet heading into the weekend

Alright, so it isn’t spooky quiet per se, but I wanted to get the spirit of Halloween in this post. It’s quiet in the weather department around Houston. It really hasn’t been so bad lately, though I think a good bit of us would prefer some slightly cooler temperatures. We may get our wish later next week.

Drought update

First off, Eric talked earlier this week about drought returning to Texas. Indeed it has. Yesterday’s Drought Monitor update showed coverage of moderate (D1) or severe (D2) drought nearly double in Texas from 5.9% last week to 10.8% this week.

After a dry month or two, coverage of drought is expanding in East Texas. (US Drought Monitor)
After a dry month or two, coverage of drought is expanding in East Texas. (US Drought Monitor)

 

Most of this is in northeast Texas east of Dallas. But the area around Southeast Texas has grown also, with areas just east of the city and much of Waller, Austin, Colorado, and Lavaca Counties now in moderate drought. Even with some rain chances next week, total rainfall continues to look a bit sluggish in our region, so I expect we’ll see this dry weather maintain its grip on much of the state.

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Sweet relief for Southeast Texas

How sweet it is! Relief has arrived. Stepping outside this morning is more a pleasure than a chore. Yesterday’s cold front is now offshore, and we’re firmly entrenched in a pleasant and cooling air mass. That sets up what should be a great weekend.

Today through Monday

With the front through and dry northerly winds ongoing, expect a delightful Friday. Sunshine will dominate with highs in the mid to upper 70s. We’re skirting an interesting, albeit random record today. Tomorrow would tie the latest we’ve ever recorded our first 80° or cooler high temperature for the season. That means we’ll miss the record by one day today. I doubt anyone will complain.

The 10 latest first dates of 80° or lower for a high temperature in Houston. (NOAA)
The 10 latest first dates of 80° or lower for a high temperature in Houston. (NOAA)

 

So with that in mind, the rest of the weekend looks pretty solid. After we see lows in the low to mid 50s tonight (and some 40s away from the city and the coast),we’ll have another winner of a day Saturday. Expect more sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 70s again. Heading to Rice to see the Owls take on Prairie View A&M? It looks great.

1021_ricepvamcast

Sunday looks good also. Expect a start in the 50s again, followed by even more sunshine. I do think some high clouds will slip through on Sunday, but it shouldn’t be anything too serious. Temps will max out around or a few ticks above 80° on Sunday afternoon.

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Refreshing weather to come

After a spike in humidity since Tuesday, more refreshing weather will filter into Southeast Texas today. That will set the stage for what should be a pretty quiet weekend.

Today & Weekend

The cold front discussed this week will finally slide through here today. Humidity should still be a bit high this morning, and areas of fog around the region will lift. As the afternoon wears on, we’ll see humidity drop. By later today, dewpoints drop into the mid 60s in most of Southeast Texas.

HRRR model forecast for 4 PM today shows dewpoints starting to edge back into the mid 60s. It will get better this weekend. (Weather Bell)
HRRR model forecast for 4 PM today shows dewpoints starting to edge back into the mid 60s. It will get better this weekend. (Weather Bell)

 

High temperatures today will top off near 90 degrees, so it won’t exactly be suddenly beautiful. Saturday will still be a tinge humid, but high temperatures should be a couple degrees cooler.

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