Stunning Weather Winding Down

Our lengthy stretch of stellar, stunning, <insert your favorite adjective here> weather will gradually wind down over the next couple days, as we return to more humid weather and some rain chances next week.

TODAY

We’re starting off today pleasant again. Temperatures are generally in the mid 50s region-wide, though a few spots in the city are around 60°, particularly south and east of Downtown. High clouds will continue to stream across the region today.

040816_Sat
Satellite image this morning shows high clouds streaming across Texas. (College of DuPage)

As long as clouds aren’t too thick, we should manage around 80° or lower 80s again. Otherwise, we will be a couple degrees cooler. No issues though, with continued low humidity.

WEEKEND

After another relatively pleasant morning, Saturday should be similar to Friday, with sun and high clouds. Temperatures will again be contingent on how thick the cloud cover is, but we’ll likely be a few degrees cooler than Friday regardless; say upper 70s for now. I can’t fully rule out a shower tomorrow afternoon, but the odds would be very low. The best chance would be north and west of town.

Saturday afternoon dewpoints in the 50s means another day of comfortable, low humidity. (Weather Bell)
Saturday afternoon dewpoints in the 50s means another day of comfortable, low humidity. (Weather Bell)

On Sunday, onshore flow will have been established pretty persistently. This will bring warm, moist air off the Gulf, and the humidity will edge upwards. There will likely be some clouds around, mixed with sun. A chance of showers exists, but it is a low chance. Temperatures will press back to near 80 degrees.

NEXT WEEK

Monday will carry a low chance of showers, along with clouds and sun and temperatures again around 80°. If you’re attending the Astros home opener, I’d probably lean 60/40 on the roof being closed right now. Hopefully we get it open for a few games next week though.

Forecast confidence plunges Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. I expect showers and storms to become more numerous, but the key to unlocking rain chances is trying to time upper level storm systems that we just can’t do 4+ days out (I’ve seen the heaviest rain shift 12 hours and 100 miles around Texas between weather model runs the last couple days). But I think there’s a good chance some heavy rain will return to the forecast for parts of the area midweek next week (though not every single day). Behind that, we should briefly return to nice spring weather and low humidity for late week. These “nice” windows of weather are going to get shorter and shorter as our typical summer pattern develops. Enjoy it while you still can.

MS-150

As Eric told you yesterday, mild temperatures are expected right now. No changes there or on the idea of a tail wind being dominant. However, the bigger issue may be rain. Some models indicate thunderstorms next Sunday between Houston and Austin. This is very much a “let’s wait and see” forecast right now. All options are still on the table, so stay tuned!

Final Four-cast in a word: Swish

The humidity is just about outta here, after a summer-like Thursday. After tonight, we’re setting up for 3-4 straight chamber of commerce days for early April. If you have plans to take part in one of the many big events going on around the region this weekend, you’re in luck.

TODAY

The only blemish in the forecast will be today. Radar shows the bulk of the area is quiet right now. But showers and embedded storms are scattered about much of Texas this morning.

Widely scattered showers and a few storms from Hill Country to Houston this morning. (Intellicast)
Widely scattered showers and a few storms from Hill Country to Houston this morning. (Intellicast)

Today should be one of those days where it could rain or briefly pour at virtually any time, though the bulk of the day may end up dry. Any storms today could drop some small hail, and you’ll likely notice an uptick in winds later this afternoon and evening. Severe weather is unlikely however.

Temperatures today will be tricky. We are already in the 50s to low 60s this morning in spots north of I-10 and mid 60s south of I-10. With clouds and showers and a slowly exiting cold front, I don’t expect to see a big jump this afternoon, so highs around 70 at best (upper 60s more likely) should be expected.

The rain should clear by later this afternoon or evening, and the humidity will press downward. Low temps tonight should bottom out in the low 50s, with a few upper 40s possible outside the Beltway. Gusty winds will make it feel a few degrees cooler, so a jacket will likely be in order tonight and Saturday morning.

Saturday AM forecast lows (Weather Bell)
Saturday AM forecast lows (Weather Bell)

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Almost finished with the rain risks

Eric touched on the flooding issues for our friends to the east in the Sabine River basin yesterday. Check that post and visit the NWS Lake Charles website for the latest. Locally, here are the latest flood gauge levels and forecasts around Houston.

We got away with a mostly quiet Thursday. Judging by the weather model trends, today will hopefully have a similar outcome.

TODAY

The upper low over Mexico the last couple days is projected to end up over South Central Texas this afternoon. That means we are slowly drawing closer to the end of this frustrating weather pattern.

Upper level low moves over South Texas this afternoon and evening. (Weather Bell)
Upper level low moves over South Texas this afternoon and evening. (Weather Bell)

 

There will still be a few spokes of energy pivoting around the upper low today, so we will still carry a chance of showers or a thunderstorm throughout the day (showers this morning are popping up west of Houston already). But the heaviest storms will be in Eastern Louisiana and Mississippi. There will also likely be areas of showers/storms on the periphery of the upper low in interior Texas (basically north, west, and south of us). That puts us in between. So I’ll put an optimistic spin on things and say, “Yes, a chance of showers or storms through the day today, but I will lean toward the bulk of the day not being too bad.” We’ll see if that works out.

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Yes, it is still going to rain

This storm has been maddening. You have to walk a very fine line between panicking people and providing actionable information. The balance is between the weather models (screaming 5-10″ of rain), the reality that big rain events aren’t that uncommon here, and the fact that people have a recent disaster (Memorial Day 2015) fresh in mind. It makes it difficult to communicate the information effectively. I know a lot of events and even some schools have been cancelled tonight and tomorrow. And it hasn’t rained much around Houston yet today, so people have to be very confused.

Here’s the scoop.

RECAP OF TODAY

The worst of this event was always supposed to be overnight tonight into tomorrow. Recall this morning, I said that most areas would see 0.5″ or less in all likelihood during the day today. Most have.

Rainfall through 4:30 PM Tuesday has been light for most. Blue specks near Beaumont indicate 1-2" though. (Radarscope)
Rainfall through 4:30 PM Tuesday has been light for most. Blue specks near Bay City, Beaumont & Orange indicate 1-2″ though. (Radarscope)

The good news today has been a very distinct lack of severe weather in Southeast Texas. We’ve managed to get through without any serious issues or warnings. The best parameters for severe weather will continue to exit to our east this evening and any tornado threat overnight will likely stay closer to the Golden Triangle than in Houston.

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