Matt Lanza

We got an update from the U.S. Drought Monitor yesterday that would factor in the bulk of the rain we received in our recent scattershot rounds of liquid gold last week. Suffice to say, it did not do much to alleviate the ongoing drought.

Keep in mind, the way these maps are calculated does not always adequately represent the current soil or dryness or greenness of your grass situation. The drought maps focus more on longer term issues related to drought. Those don’t disappear overnight. If we can get some more rain later this weekend or Monday, that will go a short way to helping things a little.

“So, shut up, Matt, and tell me if we will see rain!”

Today & Saturday

First, the heat. The 97° officially reached at IAH Airport on Thursday ties for the 7th latest date we’ve recorded that high of a temperature. The latest? October 2, 1938. That’s not a record I feel like breaking. Unfortunately, it will not get much better today or tomorrow. Look for highs in the mid to upper-90s in the area. Someone might hit 100°, which is just a <chef’s kiss> on this summer. Mornings will be warm and humid, with mid-70s. Equinox? More like Weakquinox.

Rain chances look meager both today and tomorrow, but they are not zero. Hopefully a few spots can squeeze out a cooling downpour.

Sunday

More of the same as Friday and Saturday. Rain chances may be a bit higher in the northern reaches of the Houston region, especially late in the day. But still I would say, at best, isolated to scattered activity.

Monday

So, let’s try to get excited about Monday. That is, if you want rain. We continue to see signs that a cold front will cross into our area, acting as a focal point for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Let’s set some boundaries here. I do not believe that everyone will get meaningful rain from this, however I do believe most people will get at least some rain.

Great news, for sure. Let’s just hope it actually happens as planned. Monday’s temperatures should be warm to start (mid to upper-70s), but the daytime should not be as hot as Friday through Sunday. Look for low-90s before the storms start popping up. Areas south and west of Houston, furthest from the front will probably do mid-90s again. You do need to watch these fronts sometimes because the compressional heating that occur just out ahead of them can sometimes lead to hotter than expected weather. So folks in Brazoria or Fort Bend Counties southward could see another pretty darn hot one Monday before storms (hopefully) roll in.

Tuesday and beyond

The biggest question surrounding next week’s forecast is how far south the front gets before it runs out of gas. If it can push offshore enough and dissolve out there, we likely see some pleasant mornings (low-70s) and lower humidity with highs in the upper-80s to low-90s. But it would also be fairly dry. If the front breaks up at the coast or just inland, we’d still see some cooler temperatures and lower humidity, but not as much as we saw earlier this week. But we’d also keep slight rain chances around most days. So, pick your poison I guess. We’ll watch the forecast through the weekend and see how it evolves.

As for the first true fall front? I’m not yet optimistic or ready to commit to anything, but I do see signs in the October 6 to 10 period that perhaps something could begin to stir. At the least, it’s the most hopeful signal I’ve seen this month, so that’s worth something. Stay tuned.

Tropics

Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 will bear down on the East Coast this weekend with tropical storm conditions, tidal flooding, and heavy rain expected from the Carolinas through New Jersey or Long Island. A system in the deep Atlantic may pass just north of the islands next week. For us? The Gulf looks very, very quiet. Be sure to visit our companion site, The Eyewall for a full rundown on tropical doings.

Did it rain on you yesterday? Or were you, like me, left jaded? I’ll tell you one place that saw some rain: Sienna and Arcola on the Brazoria/Fort Bend County line. Radar estimates that nearly 7 inches fell just west of Hwy 6 and 288 in Arcola.

Heavy rain also delivered for Spring, Humble, and Kingwood with a healthy 1 to 4 inches or so. One of the storms up that way prompted a few warnings and did produce a 46 mph wind gust at Bush Airport. The 2.19″ at Bush were the most in a day since we essentially did just that (2.18″) on July 6th. The most widespread heavy rain fell across southern Hardin County to our east, back into portions of northern Liberty County.

Anyway, Matt here today, and thanks to Eric for covering me on a couple recent Fridays as I’ve been knee deep in shepherding The Eyewall along.

Between Idalia and Lee, we’ve had some stuff to talk about. Thankfully, the Gulf looks quiet for the foreseeable future. I want to thank y’all for your support of the site. It’s been fun to watch it slowly grow and pick up a few new dedicated followers from places like SoCal, Florida, and the Canadian Maritimes. Please continue to spread the word to your out of town friends and family.

Today

Rome wasn’t built in a day, and droughts don’t end in a day. Usually. But, hey, for the third day or so in a row, we have rain chances on the menu today. Are they high rain chances? Not especially. But expect at least some scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms with downpours. The best odds may be to the south and west of Houston. As has been the case this week, those downpours could add up quickly in spots and cause some brief street flooding. We will watch to see if perhaps a more vigorous disturbance could produce a more organized area of storms at some point later today to deliver a little more widespread rain. But that is not certain.

Clouds will keep temperatures in check in spots. With rain, expect upper-70s to low-80s. With sun, expect near 90 degrees or a little hotter, with plenty of humidity to boot.

Saturday

Look for yet another day with rain chances. Again, many folks will see nothing. But just the fact that we have strung together multiple consecutive days with showers in the area is nice to see again. Anyway, I think the focus of rainfall tomorrow may be south of I-10 or southeast of Hwy 59/I-69 and toward the coast. But we’ll see. Expect morning lows in the 70s and highs of about 90 degrees or so.

Sunday

I would go forth with whatever plans you have Sunday without worrying too much. There will be a slight rain chance, especially toward the coast as a weak front pushes offshore. This should lower the humidity some and allow us to peak in the low-90s after a morning in the 70s.

Next week

The good news is that the Sunday front will actually yield a relatively pleasant morning Monday and perhaps Tuesday. Look for morning lows around 70 or so (with a few spots in the 60s) followed by daytime highs in the low-90s.

Temperatures heat back up for the middle and end of next week and we may temporarily see rain chances return. We continue to see virtually no sign of a legitimate autumn cold front over the next 10 to 14 days. So late summer continues, perhaps into the end of September.

Thursday was a day for the books in Houston. Hobby hit 107°, Huntsville hit 111°, but the 109° at Bush is only the third time on record we’ve ever recorded a temperature that hot in Houston. It was last done on August 27, 2011 and prior to that on September 4, 2000. Yesterday was also our second hottest day on record by average temperature (high + low divided by two). Even Galveston got into the act hitting 99 degrees for the first time since 2012.

While I would hesitate to say we’re going to get a reprieve today and tomorrow, the heat should be a little less intense, if only by a few degrees. There is a chance that we make a run deep into the 100s again on Sunday before some changes.

Not only was yesterday a historic heat day, it snapped a record streak of 48 consecutive days without measurable rainfall at IAH, which is the official Houston record now for longest dry streak. Hobby saw a storm in late July that has kept 2023 off their list of longest dry streaks (it did not rain there so yesterday was day 30 in a row; the record is 58 in spring of 2011). Not everyone saw rain yesterday, but some did, and it even led to some damage in Kingwood, most likely from downburst winds. We will have some other rain chances over the next few days, but just be warned that not everyone will get to partake.

We aren’t running into critically severe drought issues with things like water supply. Yet. Water restrictions are spreading however. But we are tinder dry in many parts and it continues to produce wildland fires. We’ve heard from some folks watching their foundations closely as well. So, yes, we need more rain.

Today & Saturday

Expect sunshine and clouds. We’ll top off in the low to mid-100s, with some humidity. It’ll be another day of heat advisories and excessive heat warnings. Rain chances will be in the 10 to 20 percent range today, mainly north of I-10. Areas to the south will probably be in the 5 to 10 percent range. Tomorrow’s rain chances are probably a little less than that.

Sunday

We should see a slight spike in temperatures Sunday, relative to Friday and Saturday. So look for highs well into the 100s on Sunday afternoon.

A few late day or evening storms may pop up, some of which could be on the stronger side, moving northeast to southwest across the area.

Monday through late week: Some good news

More of the same on Monday, with highs approaching the mid-100s again. Areas south of Houston could push deep into the 100s again. However, we have a front. This is not an autumn cool front, but it is a bit of a humidity boundary. This will probably swing through the Houston area Monday night or Tuesday. As it does so, showers and thunderstorms will be at their best chances. Not everyone will see rain, but it could be heavy at times where it falls. Coverage may be on the order of 30 to 40 percent or so.

Behind the front, it won’t be refreshing, but the mornings are almost certainly going to be noticeably less stifling. Look forward to that on perhaps Wednesday and Thursday morning. Daytime highs will have a bite taken from them, so instead of low to mid-100s every day, we’re probably looking at upper-90s and some low-100s. I’m not sure if we’re going to entirely rid ourselves of heat advisories, but we should have some days that will be comparatively “not bad” for this summer.

Unfortunately, assuming a front does push offshore, that’s going to take a big bite out of rain chances for mid to late next week. We may feel more comfortable, but we’ll continue to have to deal with increasing drought problems.

Tropics

We continue to watch this potential system in the eastern Gulf next week, and we continue to deem it no threat to Texas. Behind that we don’t see anything else of note for us in the tropics. More details on this can be found at our companion site, The Eyewall.

Yesterday’s drought monitor report was pretty much what you’d expect for the Houston area. Drought coverage doubled in size from half the region to the entire region. Severe drought quadrupled from just over 10 percent coverage to over 40 percent coverage, basically along and to the right of Highway 59.

We’ve seen burn bans expand this week, and I believe we’re getting closer to seeing more water restrictions and conservation measures take hold across the area. Tomball entered that category this week, and I assume other subdivisions and communities are just about there as well.

Wildfire risk remains high to very high over much of the area today and again tomorrow. We may see some modest improvement in that next week with slightly less wind. That would help (though the breeze has certainly helped make the evenings a bit more pleasant at least!).

So, today let’s focus on the chances we can maybe, possibly, potentially, perhaps, conceivably see some rain chances next week.

Today through Tuesday

Sunny, hot, breezy this weekend but a bit less next week, and highs in the low-100s and lows near 80 or in the low-80s. Each day. Today through Tuesday. Excessive heat warnings and/or heat advisories will be likely every day.

Yesterday was our 12th straight 100 degree day, as we hit 103° at Bush Airport. That’s Houston’s third longest streak on record. The next one to catch will be 14 straight days, set in 1980. The top streak of 24 days from 2011 will be challenging but the chances of eclipsing it surely are a good deal greater than zero. We still lag total 100 degree day records by a lot, however.

Beyond Tuesday

A lot of y’all have said our reports this week have been downright depressing. They have been! We’ve always promised honesty with you, and there’s been little sign of any real rain or “less hot” weather. So here’s the deal. I want to be optimistic about mid to late next week and some (modest) rain chances. But we’ve seen this happen more than once this year, where modeling sort of relaxes the pattern for a period and then it comes roaring back. So here’s our hint of optimism, but in reality, I would not be out buying umbrellas.

High pressure over the next 5 days is going to anchor near or over Texas. But after about next Tuesday, the high retreats into the Southwest as a pretty aggressive trough digs into the Great Lakes. This “weakens” the ridge over Texas some. By next Friday, any goodwill we have garnered is gone and it’s back to heat, but for those few days at least we might weaken things enough to at least allow for sea breeze showers each afternoon. Here’s a forecast upper level map on Thursday afternoon.

That’s only going to give us about a 20 to maybe 25 percent chance of afternoon showers. But that’s about 20 to 25 percent higher than right now. So I want to be realistic about the chances of any change (which is to say, it’s quite low), but I also want to try and keep us somewhat positive! We’ll see how this holds up over the weekend. Meanwhile, please stay cool and hydrated this weekend!