Hit and miss showers for Friday followed by a much cooler, drier weekend

Summary: A couple rounds of shower chances exist today, this morning and later this afternoon. Many folks won’t see much meaningful rain though. Showers clear this evening with much cooler and drier weather for the weekend. Temps warm back up next week with rain chances returning for the second half of the week.

Before we begin today, Eric and I want to say “Howdy!” to Nyree Doucette’s 4th grade students at Sinclair Elementary. They have been using our forecasts to help plan for their Rodeo Day today, hoping for no rain. It’s been a real close call all week it seems, and unfortunately, it’s not any less close today as you’ll see below. Whatever happens, thank you for reading our forecast, hopefully you can learn something, and we really hope your Rodeo Day goes off and is fantastic!


So, we saw a few more showers than perhaps we expected yesterday evening, which creates a slight conundrum in our forecast for today. Based on everything I’ve been able to digest this morning, I think there are two general phases to today’s rain chances. The first phase is this morning. Sorry to Ms. Doucette’s 4th graders.

The HRRR model depiction of how showers should progress today. Notice that not everyone sees them and the highest concentration is north and northeast of Houston. (Pivotal Weather)

That doesn’t mean the morning will be a total washout! But it does mean that we should see scattered showers around the region. I would not entirely rule out a rumble of thunder, but that should be the exception, not the rule this morning. Not everyone will see rain but those that do could briefly see some heavier downpours. I would assume the afternoon is partly sunny with some stray showers or a thunderstorm around. No severe weather is expected in Houston or points south at this time, but the chance for an isolated strong or severe storm increases as you go north of Harris County. Folks in the Piney Woods up through Shreveport may see some decent hailers today.

Severe weather risk today is mainly well north of Houston, with a slight risk (level 2/5) up toward Lake Livingston and Crockett. (NOAA SPC)

Other than that, highs today should manage our fifth consecutive day of 80 or better.

The second chance at some storms comes late this afternoon or this evening. Read on.

Rodeo Forecast

These storms should be even more isolated and less pronounced than anything earlier in the day, but one or two rogue thunderstorms could pop up in the area this evening with the actual cold front as you’re making your way to Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo. It’s Major Lazer night, so we don’t want to throw any cold water on your anticipation, but just don’t be shocked if there’s a brief 10 to 20 minute shower. Otherwise, the front should begin to push across the area in the evening, sending temperatures from to mid to upper-70s as you arrive to the upper 60s as you leave. There could be a bit of a breeze on the way out with noticeably lower humidity.

We’ll eventually see temperatures drop all the way into the mid-50s by Saturday morning.


The weekend looks fine, albeit a bit on the cool side. Expect to see clouds giving way to some sun through the day Saturday and perhaps again on Sunday. Along with a breeze, temperatures will be in the mid-60s Saturday afternoon and the mid to upper-60s on Sunday with less wind.

Sunday morning should see lows in the 40s everywhere except the immediate coast. (Pivotal Weather)

Sunday morning will be a cool one, with lows generally in the 40s across the region!

Next week

Monday looks great with sunshine and highs back into the 70s. Morning lows should be near 50 degrees. Tuesday should see a few more clouds with morning lows in the 50s and highs in the middle or upper-70s.

By the time we get to Wednesday, a few showers will be possible, with a better chance Thursday and/or Friday. Details remain to be seen, but we still could be looking at some scattered downpours and thunder in that time. Highs will be in the 70s or 80s with some humidity and lows in the 60s.

6 thoughts on “Hit and miss showers for Friday followed by a much cooler, drier weekend”

  1. As the father of a Sinclair fourth grader, allow me to echo Kallie’s comment. Thank you!

  2. Any guidance on the level of oak pollen expected this year? Does it vary from year to year? Thanks!

  3. Sinclair family here – thanks for the shout out, and thanks for all that you do!

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