Matt Lanza

A Saturday update on the growing potential of a hard freeze for the Houston area next week

Good afternoon. Eric and I felt it was a good idea to post an update today on the growing potential that a hard freeze will impact Houston later this upcoming week. Since yesterday, there have been a handful of changes. I will admit that the behavior of yesterday’s front (somewhat stronger and faster than expected) factored into some of this thinking. Sometimes we refer to this as “recency bias,” but truthfully, sometimes the atmosphere can offer up some hints to help us as forecasters.

Bottom line: Temperatures are going to absolutely plummet Thursday afternoon, likely from the 60s or 70s into the 30s over the course of about 4 to 6 hours. We will drop below freezing Thursday afternoon or evening and may not get back up above freezing until Saturday. Overnight lows Thursday night into Friday will likely drop into the teens or low-20s for the city of Houston and most surrounding areas away from the immediate coast. In addition, potent northerly winds will create dangerous wind chill values in the single digits from Thursday evening through Friday morning. We do not expect any snow or ice at this time, a key difference from February 2021, in addition to the intensity and duration of cold.

Friday morning’s forecast low temperatures from the European model are definitely cold, not nearly to the extent of February 2021 on a Texas-wide scale, but cold enough to damage plants and exposed pipes. (Pivotal Weather)

Preparedness

A few thoughts on preparedness for this event. The duration of this cold, the lack of snow and ice, and the intensity of the cold statewide will still lag February 2021, so at this point, we’ll take ERCOT at their word that grid conditions should be manageable. Still, having a winter preparedness kit at the ready is never a bad idea.

This will be a painful freeze for plants, especially given the wind that will accompany the cold. Make every effort to ensure that any tropical plants are protected and as secure as possible, as the wind will be enough to dismantle any weak, unsecured covering.

If you have one, make sure your irrigation system is protected, drained, and turned off.

If you are leaving town late this week, it would be a good idea to consider turning off the main water supply to your home before you go out of an abundance of caution.

Any winterization you can do this weekend or before you leave town is good and will help. If we end up 5 degrees warmer than forecast, great. Please don’t forget pets, livestock, and any folks you know that are extra vulnerable to cold.

Some winter preparedness tips from the National Weather Service (NWS Houston)

Again, this is different than February 2021’s event and should not be quite as bad, but it will be able to cause problems of its own.

Sunday through Wednesday

The forecast is mostly unchanged from yesterday. We expect widespread rain Monday and lingering showers into Tuesday morning. Wednesday should be fine.

Thursday and Friday

The exact timing of the cold front is impossible to pin down right now. Most models point to late afternoon, and given the potential “stronger, faster” behavior of the front, I would lean toward late morning or midday in Houston proper, sooner north and west, later south and east. While we cannot say exactly what the temperature drop will be behind the front, it easily looks to be 30 to 40 degrees colder over a very short period of time. If you are working Thursday, be prepared for a completely different kind of weather when you leave work than when you go to work.

The good news is that this looks like a dry front, so we do not expect rain, snow, or ice. That helps differentiate this a lot from February 2021, when it was impossible to even travel due to ice and snow.

The bad news is that this will be accompanied by wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph or even stronger. That, plus the combination of plunging temperatures will make Thursday night and Friday morning dangerously cold outdoors. Look for lows in the upper teens to low-20s. We could nudge things up or down from here as we get new data in the coming days.

Wind chill values (shown here from today’s European model) are likely to be in the single digits late Thursday night and Friday morning, dangerously cold for being outdoors in Houston. (Pivotal Weather)

The good news is that Friday should be sunny. The bad news is that we may be lucky to reach 32 degrees. The sun will surely help matters on Friday, but it will be deceptive and remain very, very cold and breezy through the day. Another night in the 20s seems likely Friday night into Saturday morning. Some models do show high clouds streaming through, which could help keep temps up a bit for night two of the freeze, but it’s too soon to bank on that.

Next weekend

After another cold morning Saturday, we should expect to rise above freezing Saturday afternoon (currently thinking about 35-40 degrees). Lows in the 20s will again be possible Saturday night, though not as cold as Thursday and Friday nights. Sunday should see highs back in the 40s.

It’s too soon to completely rule out the possibility of a system Sunday or Monday that could bring some wintry precipitation to the area, but I will be honest and tell you that our already low odds have dropped since yesterday and Thursday. Alas, despite the cold, as of now we think travel across Texas will be fine through the holiday weekend. We will share more about weather across Texas for the holiday weekend as we get closer. Eric will have the latest on our forecast tomorrow.

A pleasant early winter weekend before a rainy Monday and cold runup to Christmas in Houston

Well, we made it to Friday again. The weather looks quiet this weekend for the most part. Next week is another matter. The main headlines today:

  • A few showers this evening or overnight before a nice weekend.
  • Widespread rain on Monday.
  • Strong cold arrives Thursday or Friday, but just how cold it gets remains elusive. A freeze is likely for most of the area, with a hard freeze becoming possible on at least one night.
  • While we will continue to watch things closely, we do not believe the upcoming cold will rival what we saw in 2021 in terms of intensity, duration, or impacts.

Connect with us!

Before we get into the forecast, I wanted to share that as of Wednesday, Space City Weather is now available in Apple News! So if you are an Apple News reader, you can search for us there or just tap here to get to our landing spot in the app where you can follow us. Obviously, we’d prefer you come right to the site or download our own app, but we’re making an effort to reach people where they are and maybe grab a few new eyeballs in the process.

Don’t forget to share with any Spanish speaking friends or family that we have Maria Sotolongo on the team using her meteorological knowledge and bilingual skills to cross-post our updates in Spanish at Tiempo Ciudad Espacial and on social media! She does great work, and we want that area of our site to continue to grow.

And lastly, our social media pages. We’ll try to adapt as the environment and people’s preferences evolve, but as of today, you can find us here:

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You can also find myself, Eric, and Maria on most of the socials by searching our names.

Today

Alright, on to weather, and it’s a fine, albeit cool morning across the area. Most of us will see sunshine this morning, but look for clouds to roll in as the day progresses. This is ahead of a cold front to reinforce the dry, cool air over the region. Yes, we could see a few showers pop up along the front late this afternoon as it passes through, but I suspect any rain would be brief, and many of us will see nothing at all. High temperatures will make it into the mid-60s. Winds will kick up a bit out of the north behind the front.

Weekend

Saturday will probably start off with some clouds. There could even be a few lingering showers south of Houston, along the coast and down toward Matagorda Bay. I can’t promise that we’ll turn sunny in the afternoon, but the data suggests we gradually will. So hopefully it will be a day of decreasing clouds. It will be cooler and breezier Saturday, with highs in the low-50s and a gusty north wind (especially over the bays and Gulf).

We’ll have what should be our coldest night of this current stretch so far on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Look for 30s in most spots, with low-30s in far outlying areas and notorious cold spots like Conroe.

Sunday morning lows will be our chilliest so far in this stretch, with a light freeze possible well north and west of Houston. (Pivotal Weather)

Sunday itself should be generally sunny and continued cool, though with less wind. High temperatures should reach into the mid or upper-50s. There could be an influx of clouds during the afternoon, especially south of I-10.

Monday

Monday continues to look like a wet day. Expect off and on rain, sometimes steady to heavy in spots. It will add up to an inch or so across most of the region.

Monday’s rain totals will be somewhat unevenly distributed, but expect close to an inch in most of the area, with some seeing a bit less and others a bit more. (Pivotal Weather)

There will be a bit of a spread in temperature on Monday. Warm air is going to try to surge off the Gulf, so coastal areas could poke up above 60 degrees. Inland areas should stay mainly in the 50s, which will feel very damp with the increasing humidity in addition to the actual rain.

Tuesday & Wednesday

The midweek period does not look too bad, so if you’re out getting last minute gifts, it should be fine, aside from all the other people doing the exact same thing. We may have a few lingering showers on Tuesday, along with plenty of clouds. Highs will be in the 50s to perhaps near 60 or so. Morning lows will be around 50 degrees or in the upper-40s.

For Wednesday, I would anticipate some sunshine and probably another pleasant winter’s day with highs in the upper-50s after a morning of 40s.

Late next week/Arctic outbreak

Alright, so we’ve all been talking about this cold coming. And potentially snow! We know that has folks a little uneasy.

Bottom line: We expect at least a couple nights of freezing temperatures late next week, with an increasing risk of at least one night of a hard freeze (< 25°) in Houston. While we will continue to watch this forecast very closely, we do not believe that the intensity, duration, or impacts of the cold will rival what we saw in 2021, which saw mid or low teens for lows. Snow odds are much lower, but not quite zero.

First, the temperatures. Given the many distractions this time of year, and given that you have had over a week’s notice that this a freeze was possible, it is probably a good idea to take a moment this weekend to prepare your home for a potential hard freeze. Not a February 2021 type event. But a couple nights in the 20s and maybe a night in the teens outside the city.

The Texas Tribune published an article with a bunch of winter weather tips last year. Our advice is to use this as a base and take care of as much of the low hanging fruit as you can right now. Irrigation systems, maybe some very sensitive plants, etc.

In terms of specifics, what we’re able to say with some confidence is that “at least” a freeze is likely across the entire area on “at least” a couple nights, and a hard freeze (temps below 25°) is becoming increasingly likely on at least one night next week, probably Thursday night into Friday.

This map shows the probability of temperatures in the teens next Friday morning. For the City of Houston, it’s currently about 10 percent or less. (Weather Bell)

Whether this goes from a more typical once every few year event to something more problematic is still a question. While it’s unlikely that we will get into some more troublesome cold, it would be foolish of us to completely rule it out. The big thing I’m seeing right now is that daytime temperatures are expected to get well above freezing each day, something we did not see in 2021. We will continue to monitor this closely, but given the current low odds of temperatures in the teens and the expectation of above freezing daytimes, we do not believe this will rival 2021’s situation in terms of impacts.

As far as snow? Here is the European model’s interpretation of the chances we get an inch of snow next weekend. That’s about 10 percent. High for Houston, but not exactly anything I’d take Mattress Mack to Louisiana to bet on.

This map shows the European ensemble model’s chance of at least 1″ of snow through the 27th. It remains at 10 percent or less, high for Houston, but still unlikely. (Weather Bell)

That’s where we are right now. If we have any new insights to share, you’ll find a post from us this weekend. Meanwhile, enjoy the weekend!

A warm December weekend for Houston, with the return of cooler air aiming for the middle of next week

We managed our 4th straight 80 degree day yesterday in Houston, a feat last achieved in December of 2021. So, yay. I suppose. Congrats to those of you who like warm weather year-round. It’s your moment right now. Enjoy it because changes are coming next week, and we almost certainly have an end in sight to this warm pattern.

Today

We expect a mostly similar day today to how recent days have been: Clouds, sun, fog in spots, especially near the coast, and highs around 80 or so. If Houston hits 80° again today, it will be only the fourth time we have had five consecutive 80 degree days in December, all of them coming since 1998.

Another day around 80 degrees seems likely today. (Pivotal Weather)

But today will also feature at least a chance of a few passing showers this afternoon. Most folks won’t see much of anything, but a few isolated pockets of rain are likely around the area.

Saturday & Sunday

We’ll have another warm night, with lows in the 60s and areas of fog, especially close to the coast. So Saturday may start a bit dreary, then perk up some. Highs will be in the 70s to near 80. Shower chances will once again arrive by late afternoon. Those chances will actually continue well into the evening or overnight hours. Lingering showers will be around on Sunday morning before things should subside a bit later in the day.

Ignore specifics, but tomorrow evening’s radar could look something like this: A few showers or downpours around, with locally heavy rain, while most people see nothing at all. (Pivotal Weather)

Again, not everyone will see rain, but some will see a fair bit of it Saturday evening through Sunday morning. Some isolated stronger thunderstorms are also possible. We’ll do lows in the 60s again Saturday night into Sunday morning, followed up by highs in the 70s on Sunday. It’s possible that on Sunday folks northwest of Houston see temperatures drop into the 60s for a time as the cold front will make one failed attempt at pushing through. For Houston and points south and east, the front making it through on Sunday is unlikely at this time.

Monday & Tuesday

We will start next week on a mostly calm note, with clouds, sun, fog, and an isolated shower for Monday. We may actually turn a bit warmer, more humid, and noticeably breezy on Monday as well, as a strong storm system begins to organize in the lee of the Rockies. A typical warm pattern setup.

That storm really cranks on Tuesday over the Plains which should drag a cold front through Houston on Tuesday night. Tuesday will be our last real warm day, with morning lows perhaps near 70 and daytime highs again near 80 degrees. Expect at least a few showers or storms with the front on Tuesday evening, but it’s too soon to say how robust that will look just yet.

Beyond Tuesday

At this point we are not expecting any real meaningful weather heading toward late next week. In fact, it looks pretty nice for pre-Christmas weather. We should see a decent amount of sunshine, highs in the 50s to near 60 and lows in the 30s or 40s. We may get a windy day in here Thursday or Friday with a reinforcing shot of colder air.

The National Weather Service’s National Blend of Models gives us decent insight into days 5 through 10, and you can see that we turn sharply cooler but not too cold for the end of next week. (WeatherBell)

Heading toward Christmas week there is a lot of uncertainty within weather modeling. We will probably get some kind of warm up for early on the week of Christmas, followed by a drop in temps later in the week. But details and exact timing and intensity are very uncertain at this time. Suffice to say, it would be wise to keep both spring and winter attire at the ready heading into the week of the 19th.

Houston kicking off what should be almost a full week of warmer weather

Thursday saw clouds gradually take over our skies, a sign of the expected change that we’re beginning to feel this morning. Step outside, and it feels a bit different than 24 hours ago.

Temperatures are running nearly 20 degrees warmer this morning than they were at the same time on Thursday. (Pivotal Weather)

In fact, most parts of the Houston area are almost 20 degrees warmer than they were yesterday at the same time. This heralds our movement into a milder, more humid pattern that’s likely to stay with us with minimal interruption through next weekend.

Below today’s forecast, I’ve got the latest installment of the SCW Book Club, with some comments on The Worst Hard Time, by Timothy Egan.

Today

As the warm front delivering us the change in weather pushes north today, we can expect a few things to happen. First, a few showers or pockets of light rain and drizzle will be possible amid the cloud cover today. We already have a little of that this morning. Second, areas of fog are likely to begin forming along the coast by later this afternoon and evening. Watch for dense fog tonight in Galveston and elsewhere near the bays and coast. We’ll see temperatures soar into the mid-70s or better today.

Saturday & Sunday

The forecast gets a little challenging tomorrow. A cool front is going to push into far northwest parts of the region, and that means there will be some temperatures discrepancies. Places like Huntsville or College Station through Navasota could see temps fall from near 70 into the low-60s or even 50s later on Saturday afternoon. Houston and points south and east should not see the front until later Saturday, so expect highs well into the 70s again. Temperatures will drop into the 50s in parts of the area, while coastal areas stay in the 60s Saturday night, all of this contingent on exactly where the front gets before shifting into reverse. Basically, it might not be a bad plan to have a light jacket handy in case that front is a little faster than we expect, particularly if your plans will be north of I-10 on Saturday.

As a cold front toys with areas north of I-10 on Saturday afternoon, we could see highs only get into the upper-60s in some spots, before dropping 5 to 8 degrees or so. That front should arrive in the Houston area late in the afternoon or evening, after temperatures get well into the 70s. (Pivotal Weather)

Other than clouds, fog will be an issue most of Saturday along the coast and bays and just inland from there. December is the second most likely month of the year for dense fog in the Houston area (behind only February). So, it’s that time of year. A few showers will be possible on Saturday as this front toys with us.

On Sunday, that front will start to lift back north and out of the area as a warm front, bringing back warm temperatures and humidity. We will have upper-60s or perhaps 70s again with clouds, patchy fog near the coast, and maybe a little sun. Maybe.

Monday through Wednesday

By Monday, we’ll be well back into a soupy air mass with high humidity and warm temperatures. Look for highs near 80 with clouds and a little sun, as well as a little coastal fog. Tuesday looks to be a repeat, if not a degree or two warmer. Wednesday? You guessed it; more of the same. All three days will have lows in the upper-60s to low-70s. They’ll also carry low-end shower chances, as the warm weather should keep the atmosphere fairly well “capped” I think, inhibiting showers and storms in our area.

Late next week

At this point, Thursday and Friday look fairly similar to the front part of the week with upper-70s to low-80s, clouds, and a slight shower chance. Areas of fog may be more widespread later in the week, however. As of now, let’s pencil in the next cold front for Saturday. Could be a bit faster or slower. This front may usher in a little bit of a lengthier cool spell for the week of the 12th, so for those of you who don’t like seeing 80s in December, there is hope. We’ll have more on that next week.

SCW book club

Back in spring, we started a concept called “SCW Book Club.” For those that follow me (Matt) on Twitter, you know I read a lot. Or I try to. With two toddlers that is becoming increasingly challenging! The premise of SCW book club was that anytime a weather or disaster-related item of interest entered my reading stack, I’d share some thoughts on it with all of you. In March, I reviewed Rachel Kimbro’s excellent In Too Deep about why people rebuild after repeated flooding. I said I’d get to The Worst Hard Time, by Timothy Egan, a book about the Dust Bowl. I did, but I did not get to it “later this spring.” Whatever the case, I finally finished it last weekend! And I can truly say it’s a must-read.

The Worst Hard Time is your passport to life in the Dust Bowl.

It was published in the mid-2000s and won the 2006 National Book Award for non-fiction. I approach books like this cautiously because I know they’re well-regarded for a reason. For some reason, The Johnstown Flood, by David McCullough, another of those seminal disaster narratives did not hook me as much as I had hoped. It was fascinating and enjoyable, but something about it left me wanting (I have three books by McCullough on my nightstand at present though, so I will definitely be giving him another go in ’23). The Worst Hard Time lived up to the hype.

The book does such a good job telling the story of the Dust Bowl through the lens of various residents of the High Plains. Egan’s writing captures you immediately. There were moments where it was tough to put the book down. Some books about disasters can be academic in a sense; this is not that at all.

“The land around them was tossed about and dusted over, as lifeless as the pockmarked fields of France after years of trench warfare.”

For someone like me, this book was nearly perfect. It covers the history of a major American event, a weather-influenced event. Egan went into detail about how FDR planned to help solve the issue, so it included the “politics” of the day as well. Ultimately, the story of the Dust Bowl is so terribly nuanced that even for someone that knows a good bit about what happened, it can surprise you. Between learning how many people were sold a lie, then doing what they had to do to survive and destroying the land in the process, the Dust Bowl was even less a truly “natural” disaster than I ever believed.

If you want to truly understand the Dust Bowl and what people lived through in that part of the country during that time, this is your book. If you’ve read the book, please drop some comments and share your thoughts below. I’ll be keeping tabs on them.

The next weather book I am going to get to is a book called F5: Devastation, Survival, and the Most Violent Tornado Outbreak of the 20th Century, by Mark Levine (not to be confused with political commentator Mark Levin). This book recounts the April 1974 “Super Outbreak” of tornadoes that swept across a large part of the Eastern U.S. This book is tough to find, so if you’re fortunate to grab a copy and want to read it too, feel free. I actually stumbled onto my copy at Kaboom Books in Woodland Heights, which is a delight if you ever have time.

After that, I intend to read a book entitled Air Apparent, by Mark Monmonier which traces the history of the weather map. I imagine many of our readers might enjoy this one. This is also somewhat difficult to track down, but some used copies are available over on bookshop.org. I’m looking forward to this one. Look for something on that after the holidays.