Matt Lanza

An abnormally cool stretch of mid-November weather continues. We’ve already had more sub-60 degree days this week than all of last November and December combined. Of course, given how warm last year was, that isn’t saying much. But still. We have at least a few more days of sub-60 weather before things change somewhat.

Fundraiser

Thank you again to all who have contributed to our annual fundraiser! We are truly grateful, especially in what has been a pretty uneventful year (thank goodness). You can click here to buy items. And if you don’t wish to purchase merchandise and just want make a contribution, click here and check the box that says “I’d like to make a donation only.” Your support literally helps keep the site running, so thank you so much!

Today

Look for clouds to thicken up as the day progresses. We should begin to see sprinkles or light showers break out from southwest to northeast across the region. Initially, these may struggle to reach the ground due to dry air, but as we get closer to evening, I suspect we’ll get more reports of light rain or sprinkles. Temperatures should remain mired in the 50s today.

Saturday

Welp. Tomorrow may be a front-runner for most miserable day of the year.

It’s a pretty simple forecast: Periods of rain, steady at times (especially south of Houston). Cloudy. Cold. Breezy. Temperatures will stay stuck in the 40s all day. Look for breezy conditions with winds of 15 to 25 mph at times, stronger over the water or near the coast. Just really raw, cold, and quite nasty for Houston.

Rain totals will average a half-inch to inch and a half south of Highway-105. Some places may see a bit more, especially nearer to the coast. Others to the north may see a bit less. But everyone sees at least some rain tonight and tomorrow.

Rain should taper off from west to east overnight into very early Sunday morning.

Sunday

Despite Saturday’s gloom, I am optimistic that we should break out into at least a little sunshine on Sunday. It still won’t be a wonderful day, but compared to Saturday it will seem glorious. We should manage lower-50s. A few showers could break out late in the day west of Houston.

Monday

As of now, expect mainly cloudy skies on Monday with scattered showers or some rain. We’ll have to see if this trends more toward a wetter period like Saturday has done. For now, we’ll just call it scattered showers and update you this weekend. One thing we are confident it will be? Chilly. Again. Look for low-50s, maybe mid-50s if were lucky or upper-40s if we’re unlucky.

Tuesday and beyond

We continue to struggle with details regarding the Thanksgiving period. What we know is that there will likely be quiet weather on Tuesday with building rain chances Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures should gradually sneak back above 60 degrees by Wednesday and Thursday, with morning lows in the 40s early, warming into the 50s and 60s late.

What we don’t know is exactly when it will rain Wednesday through Friday. Our modeling continues to struggle a lot with what may be a pretty significant storm across the Eastern U.S. One school of thought is for a slower moving, stronger storm that would bring thunderstorms and possible severe weather to Texas and Louisiana. That option seems to be fading some. Another slightly more likely possibility is for a quicker moving, weaker system with just a few showers and storms. Here’s the best thinking right now:

Tuesday: Clouds, some sun, a shower possible. Morning lows 40s, daytime highs near 60.

Wednesday: Clouds, some sun, a few showers or sprinkles, especially south and west. Morning lows 50s, daytime highs mid to upper-60s.

Thanksgiving Day: Clouds with a period of showers and storms possible. Morning lows 50s to 60s, daytime highs upper-60s.

Friday: Sun & clouds. Maybe a shower. Morning lows 50s or 40s, daytime highs low-60s.

That’s what we can give you for now. We will keep you posted this weekend with a daily morning update on the forecast both tomorrow and Sunday!

First off this morning, congratulations to NASA and those who have worked so hard on Artemis on a successful launch overnight!

We got the sun back out yesterday after a dreary Monday. We should hold on to at least some sun today, though clouds may at times block it out. The next 8 or 9 days will feature quick moving systems that impact the region every couple days, possibly culminating in a wetter period right around Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Those odds have inched up a bit since yesterday. More on that in a second.

Today

We aren’t expecting any adverse weather today, so you can confidently go about your plans without issue. You’ll see both clouds and sun but probably more clouds than sun overall. It will remain chilly with highs only in the mid-50s. A continued breeze at times, especially into tonight, will enhance the chill, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph near the coast.

Thursday

A chilly start to the day won’t get a whole lot better tomorrow. Clouds should dominate early Thursday with more sunshine in the afternoon. A system passing by overhead will bring a non-zero chance for some showers, sprinkles, or light rain, but it would seem most of that should fall well offshore. Highs will be in the mid-50s again.

Friday

As systems continue to move along briskly, Friday should be a mainly quiet day between them. It will be quite cold in the morning.

We’ll warm from the 30s and 40s into the mid-50s. Sunshine should be around in the morning, but it may fade behind increasing clouds through the day. There could be a few showers very late in the day southwest of Houston, toward Matagorda Bay or into portions of Fort Bend and Brazoria Counties.

Saturday

The forecast for Saturday is a bit trickier with a system passing just offshore. This looks like a farther south version of what happened in our area Monday. In other words, most of the heavier rain should stay offshore, but there will be at least scattered showers or periods of rain in the Houston area and points south. Places north of the Brazos Valley or Conroe may see little to no rain on Saturday. That said, trends in recent days have been toward slightly higher rain chances. Rain totals look to be about a quarter-inch or so in Houston, with higher amounts south and lower amounts north. We’ll watch to see if this changes at all.

Expect a good deal of clouds outside of that, with highs in the 50s. A breeze of 15 to 20 mph will be possible, especially near the coast once again.

Sunday

Clouds may linger behind Saturday’s system keeping Sunday cool but dry. Sunshine should gradually break back out though. We should do yet another day of (say it with me again) mid-50s after a morning in the 40s.

Next week

Let’s start with this: Confidence in any specific details for next week’s weather is fairly low. We can speak generally though. Monday looks a bit unsettled with a chance of showers as one disturbance swings through. Tuesday will probably be dry with winds shifting back onshore for the first time in a bit. That will bring clouds and shower chances to the region on Wednesday, especially west of Houston. All that congeals into a storm that drags a front through on Thanksgiving, turning us somewhat cooler for the weekend.

The problem right now is determining exactly how that storm behaves on Wednesday and Thursday, as that will ultimately dictate specifics. Models are split between a very aggressive storm with a chance for strong storms and heavy rain, especially Wednesday night (the European model) and a much less aggressive system with a chance of showers mostly (the GFS model). The European model would have meaningful impacts on travel and events. The GFS model would not. Truth be told, I think our confidence has increased a little in the last 24 hours that at least some portion of the holiday will be wet. Beyond that, we can’t say much else. Stay tuned.

Monday and Tuesday will probably see morning lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s or low-60s. We could push 70 on Wednesday or Thursday with humidity before turning cooler and drier into the Friday and weekend period.

Fundraiser

Our annual fundraiser continues this week. Thank you to all who have helped contribute to keep pushing us along for another year! You’ve still got time to purchase or donate to directly support our work. You can click here to do that. If you don’t wish to purchase merchandise and just want make a contribution, click here and check the box that says “I’d like to make a donation only.”

Happy Friday, and happy Veterans Day. Thank you to all those who have served so people like us can yap about weather. One-third of November is in the books now, and it’s the 10th warmest start to a November on record in Houston. The middle-third of the month will not be quite like that. In fact it looks downright chilly at times for next week. The change in seasons begins tonight.

Today

If you have any plans this morning, you should be fine. No real rain is expected, and other than a couple sprinkles on radar this morning, it’s quiet out there. By afternoon, things do begin to change. It will not rain everywhere, but we do expect scattered showers and storms to begin to pop up. Basically, if you have any plans after 2 or 3 PM, you do run the risk of running into showers.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms today, with a slight risk (2/5) toward Matagorda Bay and Corpus Christi. Basically, any storms that develop this afternoon and evening could have gusty winds, frequent lightning, and the typical heavy downpours we see. Expect coverage of storms to slowly but steadily increase as we head toward evening. High temperatures should get to about 80 or so.

Tonight

The actual front itself will probably swing through the Houston area between 4 PM and 8 PM tonight (lean toward the earlier end of that range on the west side of town and later end of that range on the east side). Off and on rain showers or downpours with thunder should continue through midnight. It will turn breezy and quite chilly overnight.

Look for lows in the 40s in most spots. With that, a gusty breeze will make it feel even a bit chillier. Be ready tomorrow morning!

Weekend

The weekend days both look fine. Tomorrow will have that somewhat annoying breeze in addition to temperatures in the 50s most of the day. Winds will be 15 to 25 mph. Sunday looks similar but less windy. Expect highs near 60 on Sunday afternoon after another morning of 40s.

Monday and Tuesday

Increasing clouds will build in for Monday with showers or rain likely developing as the day wears on. By evening, I would expect widespread showers or steady rain in most of the area. We’ll try to nudge back into the low-60s on Monday afternoon. Another cold front will push through on the back side of the rain Monday night, knocking us back into the 40s for Tuesday morning. Clouds may stay with us on Tuesday morning before clearing by afternoon, with highs in the 50s and a breeze.

By the time we get to Tuesday, we will hopefully have all seen close to an inch or more of rain between today and Monday.

Rest of next week

The rest of the week will keep us in autumn mode with 50s by day and 40s or even 30s by night in spots. Freezing temperatures may be possible in outlying areas by Thursday or Friday morning. It still seems unlikely within the city, but we’ll see how things trend this weekend. At this point, further rain chances beyond Tuesday seem low.

Fundraiser

Like Eric, I want to extend our appreciation for all those who have either contributed or purchased swag during our annual fundraiser so far! You’ve still got time to purchase or donate to directly support our work. You can click here to do that. If you don’t wish to purchase merchandise and just make a contribution, click an item, click “buy/donate,” and check the box that says “I’d like to make a donation only.” Again, a sincere thank you for your support, and thanks as always for reading!

Alright, good morning Houston! Y’all good after last night’s Astros game? I mean, wow. For those that don’t know I (Matt) grew up a Phillies fan, so this series is both easy to watch and tremendously difficult. Last night was incredibly stressful across the board! The good news is that the weather forecast in Houston isn’t too stressful this weekend, except for maybe tonight. The primary weather story for probably the next 5 or 6 days will be that cold front tonight. It should be in and out of our area fairly quickly, but it may deliver some stronger storms before departing.

Today

For the most part, we should see minimal issues during the daylight hours today in the Houston area. There should be a few showers around through early afternoon, but any rain would be fairly brief. I wouldn’t entirely rule out a rumble of thunder, but any severe storms during the daylight hours today will almost certainly be far to our north or west. I would be eyeing north of Huntsville through Dallas east to Tyler for the highest chance of severe weather before sunset.

That area is in an enhanced risk (level 3/5) for severe weather today up that way. It does extend as far south as The Woodlands and extreme northwest Harris County, but that’s most likely a precaution. Places like College Station or Bryan will be close to seeing storms by evening, but more on that in a second.

Outside of the slight shower chances in Houston today, it’s going to be rather breezy. We should see winds out of the south at 10 to 20 mph plus gusts, likely a bit higher over the water or along the coast.

Back into the 80s we’ll go for highs today.

Tonight

There will be two areas of storms to watch for Houston. The first will come during the early evening. The tail end of that line of severe storms in northeast Texas could perhaps clip our northern readers from Conroe up through Madisonville east to Lake Livingston. That would occur between about 6 PM and 9 PM.

The second line of storms will develop back near I-35 in Central Texas during the early evening and arrive in the Brazos Valley by about 9 to 10 PM, the western part of our area up through Conroe and The Woodlands by about 10 to 11 PM and Houston shortly thereafter. Coastal areas will get the storms by Midnight or so. Give or take an hour or so on those time estimates. This is when we’ll have our severe weather risk, with strong, gusty winds being the primary concern.

Again, these will move quick, so look for maybe 15 to 45 minutes of rough weather and then just some steady to moderate rain and rumbles of thunder for a couple hours after that. By sunrise on Saturday, virtually all the rain will be offshore and off to our east.

Temperatures will drop behind the front into the 60s and 50s. Winds will actually back down a bit behind the front as well.

Weekend

Overall, the weekend looks fine with no real weather issues. Clouds should clear out on Saturday morning. I know there’s been some confusion out there with Saturday morning’s outlook, but if you have any outdoor plans you should be able to confidently proceed with them tomorrow morning. It will be a bit cooler for sure though. Morning 60s will give way to the low or mid-70s. The turnaround to more humid weather will be rapid, however, and by Saturday night, after dropping into the 50s or low-60s, we may see temperatures begin to even rise a bit toward Sunday morning. Sunday itself will be fine with sun and clouds. But look for building humidity and highs well into the 70s, if not low-80s.

Astros Forecast

So, based on all that obviously, both days look just fine for any pregame or postgame festivities and/or celebrations. Your attire may be different for game 6 or (if necessary) game 7, however. Game 6 should be cool and only slightly humid with temperatures mostly in the 60s pregame and maybe even the upper 50s postgame. Will the roof be open? I’d argue MLB will say yes based on the weather. But we’ll see.

For a potential game 7, you would probably be dressing a bit lighter with mild temperatures and higher humidity. Temperatures should be in the 70s throughout. My guess is that the roof would almost certainly be open for a game 7. Somewhat chaotic winds would be blowing out to the Crawford Boxes, and with higher humidity a game 7 could be a slugfest. Whatever the case, Space City Weather says go Astros!

Next week

We could see a few isolated showers on Monday, but at this point it doesn’t look like much. The good news is that the higher humidity will probably peak on Monday or Tuesday before slowly declining some as the week goes on. Our next cold front is probably worth penciling in for about next Friday or Saturday. Details are TBD, but that may usher in a somewhat more prolonged cooler, less humid stretch than we’ve seen so far this autumn.