Matt Lanza

We are waking up to our coolest morning of the season so far today, with Bush Airport registering in the mid-50s. Rural portions of Montgomery County and between Houston and Beaumont in Liberty and Jefferson Counties are even in the 40s this morning.

We will continue this delightful stretch of weather into and through this weekend. So, if you’re free on Sunday, come celebrate with myself, Eric, and Maria (along with Dwight and Lee!) at the Houston Botanic Garden for our Fall Day!

If you’ll be attending, we’d love if you could RSVP here if you wish. Thanks as always for your support, and we look forward to saying hello!

Today

Abundant sunshine and pleasant. Highs in the low to mid-80s. That’s it. We’ll also begin to see offshore waters calm down a bit as Ian’s distant impacts wind down. Winds should be 5 to 15 mph.

Weekend

We should see wall to wall sunshine this weekend. Look for highs in the mid-80s on Saturday, possibly creeping into the upper-80s by Sunday afternoon.

Morning lows will be mostly in the 50s tomorrow and upper-50s to low-60s on Sunday morning.

Early next week

We’ll continue to see sunshine next week, but I am thinking there will be more high clouds to speak of, perhaps turning us mostly cloudy at times. A Pacific hurricane and some more upper-level moisture streaming across Mexico will likely spoil the blue skies. Unfortunately this won’t come with any beneficial rain it would seem, with most of it falling west of Texas.

In addition, we’ll slowly warm back up with highs in the upper-80s to low-90s and morning lows generally in the mid-60s.

Late next week

High pressure building across the Gulf from the Atlantic will allow us to warm up even a bit more later next week. Look for more 90s than 80s for a couple days I think. Our next front *may* get here next weekend, but it looks dry and weak right now, so I’m not optimistic that the dry weather and a late summer swoon will end. We shall see.

Tropics

As recovery efforts continue across Florida, Ian is approaching the coast of South Carolina this morning. It should make landfall later today likely near Georgetown, SC, between Charleston and Myrtle Beach. Ian reintensified into a hurricane yesterday as it moved offshore. It currently has a wide swath of tropical storm force winds and a small area of 75 to 85 mph winds near the center.

Notice how much wider the wind swath (orange) is than the cone (white) in the image above. It’s an important lesson in the limitations of the cone, as impacts can extend well outside the width of the cone. Whatever the case, here’s hoping Ian’s second act underachieves on the Carolina coast today and tomorrow.

Like some of you I am sure, being stuck in a cold house with my wife, kids, and mother-in-law in the middle of the February 2021 freeze was the tipping point for us. It was time to get a generator. Also like many of you as a result of the pandemic, we were in the middle of reassessing our living decisions and space needs around that same time. It was not until summer 2021 that we decided to move to West U and started exploring a generator for our new home.

Much like Eric did for his generator, and with his blessing, we used a portion of Reliant’s annual sponsorship to have a whole-home generator installed at the Lanza household. Reliant, of course, is the multi-year sponsor of Space City Weather. As in Eric’s case, my experience will reflect that of any consumer in my situation. We laughed, we cried, and it was not always pretty. But it got done.

Obviously, getting a generator is an investment. An average installation will likely run you between $10,000 to $15,000 depending on your home and needs, and that may have even nudged up a bit due to inflation. That said, I think we have learned from recent disasters both here in Texas and along the Gulf Coast that if you are able to purchase a whole-home generator, it will likely be a worthy investment. This is not something I really ever thought I’d do but having an infant and toddler roaming around a powerless house can change minds. My goal in this post is to describe the process of having a whole-home generator installed in a 2022 world, sharing how my experience differed from Eric’s that he wrote about last year.

Reliant works with a Houston-based company called Quality Home Products of Texas. To begin this effort, Quality sent a technician to my house back in November 2021. Joey was our tech, and he was extremely informative and knowledgeable about the process. We live in an older house (1940s) that has been modernized, so there were a few quirks about our situation in terms of wiring, logistics, etc. Those became an issue during the installation process, but broadly, Joey’s plan worked on paper. They were good at finding workable, minimally invasive solutions for a home’s unique situation.

We outlined where the generator would go in our yard, placed some stakes in the ground, signed a contract and paid 25 percent of the total up front. Here is where my situation first deviated a bit from Eric’s experience. Eric’s home required a stand, but in our case a pad worked fine. To do this, workers came on two visits to construct the “outline” of the pad and then pour concrete. Both visits were quick, easy, and required little effort on our part.

The second difference from Eric’s experience was the Great Supply Chain Crisis of late 2021 and 2022. When we signed the contract in November, we were told that the process was going to be a bit delayed because of supplies. Apparently, a lot of folks want generators! The tentative timeline was that installation would probably be in February or March. Being fairly plugged into the news, I expected this, and it was just an inevitable outcome that was understandable. I appreciated Joey being honest about it up front.

Then, as it turns out, our approval process in West U hit a delay. Thus, my installation was delayed another month or two in City Hall. Finally, we got the ball rolling in April, the pad poured in May, and the installation in June. So why am I writing this in September? A number of things: My schedule and a Covid outbreak in our house, then a number of minor issues that led to five- to seven-day delays each time. We had issues getting our gas meter upgraded with some back-and-forth between Quality and CenterPoint. The regulator necessary for gas supply to the house was installed a week before CenterPoint was able to come out to upgrade the meter, leading to hot water supply issues. We also had issues with how our HVAC system connected to the generator. We had a couple parts that needed replacing. My takeaway here: Inevitably, things happen so just be prepared to deal with that in this process. There were difficult moments, but Quality worked with us fully to navigate the issues and they got the job done.

Ultimately, the generator was installed in June and we reached startup in late August.

The installation process itself was about a half-day effort involving your power being cut for a couple hours in that time. Factor that into your plans if you work from home or want to avoid excessively hot or cold days. But overall, it was rather unobtrusive. The startup process was also straightforward. It does involve a brief power cut to test the generator. I got to see first-hand what would happen if we lost power, and admittedly it’s pretty cool. The power goes off, and within about 10 seconds, the generator turns on and life inside the home can resume a degree of normalcy. To ensure things stay operational, the generator is set to test itself once a week, and if anything is flagged, they’ll come out to see what’s up.

All in all, the installation process itself is not that bad. But it was a long road, and it certainly was not without a couple points of legitimate frustration. Despite a couple trip-ups, Quality does good work overall, and they have fairly comprehensive maintenance and monitoring services as well. All my interactions with their staff were positive. And to their credit, they apologized and explained the issues whenever things hit a snag.

If you decide to get a generator, plan ahead and prepare to be patient. Another piece of advice? Pay attention when they explain certain elements of the process. There may come a point where you have to explain to someone why something was done a certain way (like me trying to resolve issues between a plumber and CenterPoint). That can be taxing, but it will save you frustration. You don’t need to be an electrician or plumber to understand the whole process but ask questions and give the installers your attention.

Now, say a generator is not in the cards for you. There are alternatives to keep the critical functions of your home up and running in the event of power loss. Reliant is knowledgeable about these solutions as well and will work with you to find the right product for your lifestyle.

• Goal Zero, Reliant’s sister company, provides numerous affordable and flexible power solutions, including portable power stations that can be charged through solar panels, power banks for smaller devices, lanterns and more – all perfect for when storms roll through or getting outdoors.
• These devices can power everything from fridges and internet modems to phones, laptops and even critical medical devices. They can also integrate directly with your home’s circuits for a seamless experience.
• In the event of a major storm or grid-related problems, portable backup power solutions will give you some peace-of-mind that you’ll have power to keep important devices charged and stay connected to family and friends.
• • To learn more about backup power options, visit reliant.com/backuppower. (Reliant customers receive a 15 percent discount on Goal Zero products!)

Overall, I am grateful and relieved that this process is finally over. But as I said, while frustrating, the peace of mind we have now is tough to replicate. So was it worth it? I believe so. I also have confidence I can assist Eric in the event of a power-breaking storm! And that’s good for everyone.

Good Sunday to you. With the potential of a major hurricane in the Gulf in 3 days, we just want to post to reassure our Houston readers that this storm will not impact Texas and offer an update for our neighbors to the east.

Just to reemphasize, for Houston, we are in fine shape. The window of impacts from Ian has likely narrowed from east of New Orleans through most of Florida.

As of Sunday morning, Ian has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. Reconnaissance aircraft traversing the storm are not finding anything super noteworthy this morning. Ian remains a tropical storm trying to organize itself. The satellite picture is less than overwhelming.

That said, with a generally favorable environment surrounding it, Ian should be able to rapidly intensify at some point in the next 36 hours. If Ian continues to struggle some into tomorrow, the odds of that drop but by no means does the lack of organization indicate much about the long term peak of Ian at this point. Rapid intensification happens…rapidly. Despite the raggedness at the moment, Ian is still likely to become a major hurricane as it moves into the southeast Gulf of Mexico.

What will impact Ian’s intensity at landfall is exactly where it tracks. If the storm turns right faster and plows into Fort Myers through Tampa, Ian will likely be near peak intensity as it does so, a really bad situation. If the storm heads more north toward the Big Bend or Apalachicola Bay, the storm should be a bit under peak intensity as it comes ashore. If the storm goes farther west toward Pensacola or Mobile, the hope would be that Ian would weaken even a bit faster. Why? Wind shear. That being said, if a more northerly/westerly track does occur, Ian will be expanding in physical size, meaning a larger wind field. While this wouldn’t be quite the same as another “I” storm we are familiar with (Ike, which also weakened on approach to landfall), the idea would be the same for Florida: A very strong, powerful storm increasing in size but weakening at landfall can still produce very damaging impacts, and whatever the “category” of the storm, folks in Florida should be taking this seriously.

So where will Ian go? That’s the million dollar question, and I have to say, the forecast track of Ian is fairly complicated this close to impact time. The National Hurricane Center outlook shows Ian coming in somewhere between roughly Fort Myers and Pensacola.

This is as good a forecast as any in my personal opinion, and I think it correctly splits the risks down the middle. If we look at a more complicated map of what we call a “super ensemble” of a bunch of different ensemble models, you get a very similar looking cone.

We use this approach to get a better sense of risk and/or consensus within the modeling itself. There are quite clearly two camps it seems; one that brings Ian near Tampa and another toward the Panhandle. But there is ample potential in between too. So this is another instance in which you have to look at the entire cone as being at risk versus just a point on a map. Hopefully we can narrow this further as today goes on so folks can begin to prepare adequately.

For now, if you know anyone in Florida or visiting Florida, they should be ready to act sooner than later. Impacts would hit southwest Florida by Wednesday or the Panhandle by later Thursday depending on the track.

As far as the Artemis I mission goes, the decision to delay the launch happened yesterday, and according to NASA, they will decide tonight on whether or not to rollback. Very difficult and consequential decisions here. Increasingly, the length of time needed to adequately prepare for storms and issue directives is longer than what is realistically possible from a weather prediction scenario, particularly when it comes to Gulf systems. This is another reason why hurricane preparedness plans are so important. You’ll almost always have less time than you think.

We’ll have another update on Ian tomorrow, as well as an update on the rest of our Houston area forecast. We are still on track for a cold front tomorrow that will usher in cooler and more comfortable weather probably through the weekend! Daytime highs will still be hot, near 90 or well into the 80s most days, but the humidity will be low, allowing for nighttime temperatures in the 60s and perhaps 50s inland. More tomorrow!

Autumn. August. Both are basically the same, right? We hit 98 degrees officially in Houston yesterday, our hottest late September day since 2005. We have a shot at meeting or exceeding that level again today and maybe again on Monday before we can hopefully be done with this level of ridiculous heat.

Meanwhile, Invest 98L became Tropical Depression 9 in the Caribbean overnight. It should not impact Texas, but it will likely be an issue for Florida or the eastern Gulf. More on that below.

Today

More of the same. Highs likely just shy of 100 with sunshine. Watch for poor air quality (high ozone), in addition to high levels of <ah choo!> ragweed.

Weekend

Temperatures may crawl back a couple degrees this weekend, but that’s because humidity levels may increase just a bit. All else equal, it will continue to feel more like summer than fall: Mid-90s by day, mid-70s by night. A shower can’t be entirely ruled out, especially Sunday, but you’d be lucky if you saw one.

Monday

This may be the trickiest day of the forecast. We are expecting a cold front to descend on southeast Texas on Monday. Air masses tend to be at their hottest immediately before a front passes through. In addition, this front will come with little moisture and minimal rain chances. With humidity likely falling through the day on Monday, we will have a much easier time heating up, assuming sunshine. I would not be shocked to see some places blow past 98 or 99 degrees Monday afternoon.

Current forecast highs are hot, but I think there’s some chance we end up beating some of these numbers.

Tuesday & beyond

The rest of next week looks nice by September standards in Houston. We should see low humidity, allowing nighttime lows to drop into the mid or lower 60s away from the Gulf and bays. Inland locations even have a shot at 50s!

Daytimes will remain fairly hot, but not nearly to the levels we’ve seen lately and with much more tolerable humidity. In other words, the shade and a breeze should offer to provide sweet relief from heat. Look for upper-80s to 90 or so each day. Rain chances seem close to zero all of next week.

Tropics

So now we’ll discuss the tropics. Again, we do not expect that Tropical Depression 9 will impact Houston or Texas at all. So what will it do?

This morning, TD9 is located just off the coast of Venezuela. It finally pushed away from land and more out into the water yesterday, which has allowed it to organize.

Granted, it doesn’t look great on the satellite image above. There is still a lot of wind shear in the wake of Hurricane Fiona, which is impacting TD9’s growth. It will initially be slow. As TD9 works west, it should emerge from that shear into a more stable environment, and that’s when we may see it intensify more rapidly.

TD9 is expected to work just north of west over the next couple days, but it will eventually likely feel the impacts of our cold front and resultant trough over the Eastern U.S. by early next week. This will allow the storm to turn northwest and eventually north and probably northeast as well in time. Thus, the track forecast for Nine shows it threatening Florida in time.

Given the geography of Florida and the Caribbean and the turn expected from TD9, there are many, many questions on intensity and impacts. If the turn happens earlier than forecast, that could lead to more land interaction with Jamaica and Cuba’s eastern mountains, which could keep the system a bit disheveled and also allow it to track east of Florida. If the turn is slower, this could give TD9 more time over the Caribbean rocket fuel (mostly normal for this time of year), allow it to strengthen more, and produce less hostile land interaction. Thus it would be a bigger threat to the Florida Peninsula. If the turn is much slower than forecast, then odds increase for the Panhandle or Mississippi/Alabama coasts. All options are reasonable right now, but consensus favors something near the current NHC track.

Given the general interest in this system, as well as the potential impacts to the planned Artemis I launch in Florida next week, Eric and I will keep you updated on this storm through the weekend.

One last note. We’re obviously watching TD9 closely, but Fiona is still out there, and it is about to absolutely hammer Atlantic Canada. Much of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland are under hurricane warnings. Tropical storm conditions are even expected as far north as Labrador. This will likely be a generational storm for Nova Scotia. This area often experiences large storms, but this will be at another level and perhaps worse than Juan in 2003.

Thoughts with our Canadian friends through a pretty trying event.