Matt Lanza

Temperatures once again topped out at 100° officially on Thursday at Bush Airport, our 5th straight day of triple digit heat and 18th day overall in 2022. Only 1902 (19), 1980 (32), 1998 (24), 2000 (20), and 2011 (46) had more 100 degree days for the entire year.

Drought continues to worsen around the Houston area.

We saw level 3 (extreme) drought expand from 30 percent coverage to 37 percent coverage across the region through Tuesday. Most of the Houston metro area is in severe to extreme drought conditions now. We should see further degradation with next week’s update as well.

But, we may have at least something to watch in the longer-term forecast that could change things up. Let’s get into things.

Today & Saturday

We will see a brief respite in what has been a stifling upper level pattern this week. Texas will lie on the western periphery of a “weakness” between two ridges, one off the East Coast and one in the Southwest. This should allow for non-zero rain chances and at least slightly less hot weather both today and tomorrow.

We’ll call it about a 20 percent chance of showers or storms, probably a tinge higher tomorrow than today, with the best odds being south and east of Houston.

Outside of modest rain chances, we’ll remain quite hot. A few places will likely try again for 100 today and tomorrow, but we should see more upper-90s in the area than we have the last few days. You’ll see temperatures drop a good 10 to 15 degrees if you’re fortunate enough to see a shower. Overnight lows will remain warm and muggy in the 70s.

Sunday & Monday

We sort of revert back to a more robust summer pattern Sunday into Monday, which should mean more 100s risk and lower rain chances.

I still think we could see a pop up storm or two, but I would not be betting on it for either Sunday or Monday. Highs near 100, lows in the 70s.

Tuesday through late week

Tuesday should continue hot, but there may be a slightly better chance of afternoon showers or storms. Same goes for Wednesday. I would expect highs well into the 90s to near 100 on both days. There are signs of life for late next week. At least a temporary disruption of the stagnant summer pattern seems possible. This would mean more mid-90s by day instead of 100s. More importantly, it would mean a few days of average to slightly above average rain chances. I’m hesitant to get too worked up about this, but it does appear that the upper pattern will allow the Gulf door to open more than it has been most of this summer. At least for a few days. Fingers crossed. More on that for you Monday.

Tropics

Quiet. Nothing to speak of, but there are hints of at least a possible weak system wayyyy out in the Atlantic later next week perhaps. Nothing the Gulf needs to be concerned with right now. More on that in Tuesday’s tropics post.

Speaking of next week: Just want to give you a heads up that both Eric and I are planning some time off next week to gear up for the marathon of peak hurricane season. We’ll continue posting like normal, but just bear with us if the timing is a little off on a day here or there. Thanks for understanding!

No one complained to us that we skipped last week’s tropics post. Hopefully no one complains that this week’s is rather short!

Tropical outlook in a sentence

There are no signs of any organized systems in the Atlantic Basin over the next week to ten days, but we do expect our slumber to gradually end come August.

2022 as of today: Does the quiet start mean anything?

Much like last July, this July has been quite quiet. We managed to get Colin briefly back on July 2-3, and since then there’s been nothing. Last year we had made it to E by now. In 2020, we were on F. We remain at 2.8 accumulated cyclone energy units to date. The normal is just over 6 by this point. For the season, we typically see above 120, so we have a long, long road ahead.

Just to refresh: ACE is an equation that tallies how long a storm maintains an intensity. It’s then accumulated, storm by storm, over the course of the season. Most recent seasons have been active to very active. While it’s nice that 2022 is beginning below average, it’s also not exactly meaningful. From an ACE point of view, 95 percent of the season is yet to come. The big ramp in activity typically begins around August 15th, so we’re 2 to 3 weeks away from normally having a bit more to discuss.

What’s happening now?

When I say not much is happening in the tropics, I really do mean that. It’s very, very quiet. We’ll occasionally get a robust wave off Africa, but it typically either runs into significant dry air and dust or wind shear and dissipates.

While we’ve had some Saharan dust over Houston lately, we may see more next week. There’s a lot of dust out there, so we just need a brief window to open to sneak some more of that into the Gulf.

In addition, wind shear in the Caribbean is strong and projected to stay that way over the next week or so. Anything trying to get here will struggle. And our recent spate of hot weather is basically being caused by high pressure sealing Texas off from any Gulf mischief. The longer that continues, the worse the drought but the less risk of hurricanes. Mostly.

We see no real meaningful sign of change for the time being, so let’s continue to enjoy the calm, and use this time to ensure we’re prepared in case things do change later in August or September.

A number of folks across the area saw rain yesterday, which was great.

We need what we can get right now, coming off our hottest 5 consecutive days on record Saturday-Wednesday. I’ve seen folks say that 1980 and 2011 were worse. By July 14th of those years, we had amassed 20 100° days in 1980 and 11 in 2011. So far in 2022, we’ve managed 13 of them. So yes, 1980 was hotter — during the day. At night is where things have changed. 1980 averaged 75.6 degrees for July nighttime lows. So far this month, we’re averaging 78.1 degrees for nighttime lows. As such, this July is on pace to be our hottest. Warmer nighttime lows are a health hazard, extending the heat.

Between 2010 and this year, Houston has set or tied almost 150 daily records for warm nighttime lows, sometimes multiple times over the period. Galveston has set or tied 189 of them. A frequently warmer than normal Gulf (including this year as shown above), climate change, and land-use change (urban sprawl) are all contributing factors to making heat waves somewhat worse than they were in the past. So this isn’t the periodic hot summer. It’s the slightly more frequent hot summer with an extra spoonful of sprinkles on top. We see no real end in sight to our current hot weather.

Drought has worsened as well.

The entire Houston area is officially in drought. The southern half of the area remains in extreme drought, the second worst category, and this week saw the addition of some exceptional drought, the worst category, west of Houston. Notably in 2011 the entire area was in exceptional drought at this point. With August still ahead of us, I am not especially thrilled with where we presently stand.

Friday

After yesterday saw some rain, today should see some more. We are starting with just a couple showers here and there, mainly south of I-10. Today’s focus should be south of Houston. That isn’t to say that if you live north of I-10 you won’t see anything, but the odds are highest to the south, the part of our area most in need right now. Look for coverage of storms, especially south of the city to become more numerous as the afternoon develops. Locally heavy rain is possible today, perhaps up to 2 or 3 inches in the most persistent storms, so do keep an eye out for localized, brief street flooding in those areas hit hardest.

With rain showers and some clouds, look for temperatures ranging from the upper-80s to mid-90s today.

Weekend

Look for rain chances to fall back a good bit to a requisite 10 to maybe 20 percent chance on Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures, while hot, should stay sub-100 for most of us. I would expect lows in the 70s to near 80 and highs in the upper-90s both days.

Next week

We could see a slight uptick in shower chances on Monday, but I wouldn’t get my hopes up. Otherwise, high pressure will begin to re-flex itself overhead. This means heat, humidity, and just minor rain chances on any given day. Look for 100s to populate the forecast again, along with frequent heat advisories.

Overnight lows will bounce between the upper-70s and low-80s. In other words, more of the same. There’s no meaningful sign of change to this pattern at this time.

Tropics

If you want good news, the tropics are quiet right now, and they look to stay that way for awhile. We’ll update things again next Tuesday. It’s tempting to wish for a tropical storm or hurricane to break our misery, but this feels very much like a case of be careful what you wish for. Here’s hoping however things go over the next few months, they go gently.

Since our post last week, Tropical Storms Bonnie and Colin have formed and exited the Atlantic basin. Looking ahead, those should be the last storms for a bit.

Tropical outlook in a sentence

Over the next week (or longer), we are not expecting any new systems of note in the tropical Atlantic.

Bonnie & Colin

This time last week, we noted that PTC #2 would likely become Bonnie and “has a chance to become a hurricane as it approaches Central America, but it probably has equal chances of not being one too.” As it turns out, the latter was correct. Bonnie’s forward speed and a bit of shear was just too much to overcome, and the cyclone never organized until it moved into the Pacific. Since it held itself together across Central America, it retained the name Bonnie, and is heading out to sea.

Meanwhile, Colin formed briefly off the Carolina coast, somewhat of a surprise from last Tuesday’s post. Colin didn’t last long, about 24 hours from Saturday through Sunday, and it dumped a few inches of rain in parts of the Carolinas.

2022 to date

With Colin’s development, that puts us at 3 tropical storms as of July 5th. They’ve combined for an “accumulated cyclone energy” of about 2.8, which is right on normal for this point of the season.

ACE tallies up how long a storm maintains a certain intensity during its lifetime. The bigger the storm, the bigger the ACE, and obviously the more of those storms in a season, the higher the value will be. Typically, our 3rd storm does not form until early August, so from that point of view, we’re cranking. But they’ve all been fairly weak systems, so overall our season is off to a mostly normal start, which is nice for a change.

That said, note from the chart above that we still have roughly 97.7 percent of the season ahead of us from an ACE standpoint. Again, it’s normal for the early season to be generally weak.

Looking ahead

Over the next 7 to 10 days, we are not expecting any tropical development in the Atlantic. As always, you could get a Colin scenario, where something brief and weak can spin up close to home. Short of that, however, it appears dust and minimal tropical waves of note will be the story over the next week and probably a bit longer. Dust tends to indicate dry air is present, which is not something tropical storms care for. This is also the time of year we expect widespread dust over the Atlantic basin.

Some of the typical things we’d look for to kickstart tropical activity are sitting out there on the horizon per the models, so I would expect maybe the last week to 10 days of July to provide some items to watch, but that’s purely speculative right now. For now, enjoy the quiet we have and use it as an opportunity to ensure you’re set for the August and September gauntlet.