Matt Lanza

Alright, good morning Houston! Y’all good after last night’s Astros game? I mean, wow. For those that don’t know I (Matt) grew up a Phillies fan, so this series is both easy to watch and tremendously difficult. Last night was incredibly stressful across the board! The good news is that the weather forecast in Houston isn’t too stressful this weekend, except for maybe tonight. The primary weather story for probably the next 5 or 6 days will be that cold front tonight. It should be in and out of our area fairly quickly, but it may deliver some stronger storms before departing.

Today

For the most part, we should see minimal issues during the daylight hours today in the Houston area. There should be a few showers around through early afternoon, but any rain would be fairly brief. I wouldn’t entirely rule out a rumble of thunder, but any severe storms during the daylight hours today will almost certainly be far to our north or west. I would be eyeing north of Huntsville through Dallas east to Tyler for the highest chance of severe weather before sunset.

That area is in an enhanced risk (level 3/5) for severe weather today up that way. It does extend as far south as The Woodlands and extreme northwest Harris County, but that’s most likely a precaution. Places like College Station or Bryan will be close to seeing storms by evening, but more on that in a second.

Outside of the slight shower chances in Houston today, it’s going to be rather breezy. We should see winds out of the south at 10 to 20 mph plus gusts, likely a bit higher over the water or along the coast.

Back into the 80s we’ll go for highs today.

Tonight

There will be two areas of storms to watch for Houston. The first will come during the early evening. The tail end of that line of severe storms in northeast Texas could perhaps clip our northern readers from Conroe up through Madisonville east to Lake Livingston. That would occur between about 6 PM and 9 PM.

The second line of storms will develop back near I-35 in Central Texas during the early evening and arrive in the Brazos Valley by about 9 to 10 PM, the western part of our area up through Conroe and The Woodlands by about 10 to 11 PM and Houston shortly thereafter. Coastal areas will get the storms by Midnight or so. Give or take an hour or so on those time estimates. This is when we’ll have our severe weather risk, with strong, gusty winds being the primary concern.

Again, these will move quick, so look for maybe 15 to 45 minutes of rough weather and then just some steady to moderate rain and rumbles of thunder for a couple hours after that. By sunrise on Saturday, virtually all the rain will be offshore and off to our east.

Temperatures will drop behind the front into the 60s and 50s. Winds will actually back down a bit behind the front as well.

Weekend

Overall, the weekend looks fine with no real weather issues. Clouds should clear out on Saturday morning. I know there’s been some confusion out there with Saturday morning’s outlook, but if you have any outdoor plans you should be able to confidently proceed with them tomorrow morning. It will be a bit cooler for sure though. Morning 60s will give way to the low or mid-70s. The turnaround to more humid weather will be rapid, however, and by Saturday night, after dropping into the 50s or low-60s, we may see temperatures begin to even rise a bit toward Sunday morning. Sunday itself will be fine with sun and clouds. But look for building humidity and highs well into the 70s, if not low-80s.

Astros Forecast

So, based on all that obviously, both days look just fine for any pregame or postgame festivities and/or celebrations. Your attire may be different for game 6 or (if necessary) game 7, however. Game 6 should be cool and only slightly humid with temperatures mostly in the 60s pregame and maybe even the upper 50s postgame. Will the roof be open? I’d argue MLB will say yes based on the weather. But we’ll see.

For a potential game 7, you would probably be dressing a bit lighter with mild temperatures and higher humidity. Temperatures should be in the 70s throughout. My guess is that the roof would almost certainly be open for a game 7. Somewhat chaotic winds would be blowing out to the Crawford Boxes, and with higher humidity a game 7 could be a slugfest. Whatever the case, Space City Weather says go Astros!

Next week

We could see a few isolated showers on Monday, but at this point it doesn’t look like much. The good news is that the higher humidity will probably peak on Monday or Tuesday before slowly declining some as the week goes on. Our next cold front is probably worth penciling in for about next Friday or Saturday. Details are TBD, but that may usher in a somewhat more prolonged cooler, less humid stretch than we’ve seen so far this autumn.

Happy Sunday to you. Eric and I wanted to offer a quick update on the weather for ALCS game 4 in New York, the potential clincher. Additionally, we have some more clarity on our rain chances here in Houston for tomorrow.

Astros weather

In a perfect world, the Yankees would simply close the roof for game 4 tonight, and we’d play ball without any weather concerns. It would surely give them a bit less to complain about. Alas, the world is not perfect. You don’t need to be a meteorologist to look at the water vapor satellite image below and see that there’s a lot of something aimed at New York City.

As it turns out, it’s a deep plume of subtropical moisture that is aimed right at New York and New England and extends back to the Caribbean. In English, this means rain is likely in the Bronx today. The first pitch tonight is just after 7 PM Eastern time. The latest HRRR model forecast radar shows rain still in the area at this time.

Will it be raining enough in New York City at the planned start time to mess things up? No model is perfect, but a few have shown this outcome, so I am becoming more and more pessimistic that we’ll get a game in without some kind of scheduling issue today. Obviously, this is a problem because there are no off-days for the rest of the series. But that’s Major League Baseball’s problem to deal with. Our message is: If you have the brooms out tonight, there is at least some chance they may need to stand by until very late or tomorrow.

If the game does somehow on as planned tonight, you can expect temperatures in the 50s and a northeast wind (which at Yankee Stadium is blowing in) around 10 mph. Additionally, you’d almost certainly have intermittent showers, light rain, or drizzle. Philly will have similar issues today as well. So if you’re scouting the other side, you may have some issues there too. Tuesday’s weather won’t be perfect, but it looks better if they need to slide things a day.

Houston weather

Locally, we have no issues for Sunday so if you have an Astros watch party planned you might just have to find other ways to entertain yourselves. We will have a few extra clouds today, as some of the high clouds from Pacific hurricane Roslyn head this way. Otherwise, it will be warm and humid with 80s. Much like yesterday, there will be a healthy breeze off the Gulf today, gusting to 20 to 25 mph, possibly a bit more over the water. A shower is possible south of I-10 today, but it would likely be light and brief…maybe just enough to wet the ground.

Our cold front begins to arrive later tomorrow. Ahead of it, look for more clouds, a few isolated sprinkles or showers, and yes, more wind. Other than that, daytime Monday looks fine.

Monday night is when things get interesting. The good news is that Hurricane Roslyn will get shredded over Mexico. So, we don’t need to worry about that. But the remnant moisture and some of the “oomph” from Roslyn is going to interact with the cold front as it moves through Houston. This should allow for a developing, if not strengthening line of storms to push in Monday night with the front.

As the storms move in, there is at least some chance they could become strong to severe, with gusty winds being the main threat. This would, again, be late in the evening, if not after midnight. Eric will have the latest for you on Monday morning regarding any severe weather risk. Most of the area, especially north of I-10 should see a quarter to half-inch of rain, with isolated higher amounts possible. Helpful, but it won’t do much for the drought.

Tuesday should be much cooler and windy. It will feel like autumn again. More from Eric in the morning!

Yesterday was just glorious. Definitely a top 10 day. And the Astros won with the roof open. Today will be fairly nice, albeit a bit warmer and just a tinge more humid. Look for humidity to increase a bit further this weekend before we get involved in a little mischief and hopefully some meaningful rain chances next week.

Today

More of the same from the last couple days; just add about 5 degrees or so. Look for ample sunshine and slowly increasing humidity. We’ll top off generally in the mid-80s, with a few spots a little hotter.

Weekend

Both Saturday and Sunday look predominantly dry, so if you have outdoor plans, you should be fine. I mean, I guess a sprinkle or shower is possible on Sunday, but I won’t belabor the point. Look for sunny skies Saturday with a few more clouds on Sunday. Temperatures should be in the mid to upper-80s.

If you want to complain about something other than hotter temps, perhaps the wind may draw your ire this weekend. We expect southerly winds sustained around 10 to 20 mph, with gusts up over 25 mph at times, especially over the water or at night in far inland locations. It will be the strongest onshore wind we’ve had since possibly springtime.

Monday and Tuesday

Our first attempt at mischief comes later Monday and Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west. There are still questions as to how much moisture this front will have, but at the very least there’s a notable chance for a period of showers, possibly some heavy ones, Monday night or Tuesday. I wouldn’t get my hopes up for major drought relief, but we’re hopeful for some meaningful rain at least. I’m not sure how your backyard is doing, but I have only seen a quarter-inch in mine over the last 45 days. Any rain is better than none.

It will be a warm and humid Monday with decreasing humidity later Tuesday. We should manage the 80s on Monday, with morning lows in the 70s. Tuesday will be a bit cooler with 70s from morning into afternoon.

Later next week through Halloween

After a couple cool days Wednesday into Thursday (AM lows in the 50s), we’ll probably get another surge of humidity on Friday before a cold front wipes it out late or into Saturday. Again, the big question swirls around how much rain we’ll actually see. Much like with Tuesday, I would remain cautiously optimistic for some helpful rain. That should setup a lovely weekend. The early read on Halloween is probably seasonably pleasant (think maybe 60s at Trick or Treat time), but we’ll check in on that more next week.

The Astros weren’t the only winners on Thursday. Some folks saw actual rain yesterday too. The jackpot winners came in about three different areas: Dickinson in Galveston County, Fresno and Sienna Plantation, and just south of Sealy. There were a few other spots south and west of the Houston area that did okay as well.

The highest measured totals I could find were near Dickinson (3.16″), Southfork (2.04″), and La Porte (1.96″). Yesterday’s Drought Monitor update underscored our need for rain, as drought coverage expanded by another 12 percent in the Houston region.

The good news is that we have more rain chances coming. The bad news is that these will likely do little to alleviate the underlying problem.

Today

All in all, today should be decent, albeit hot. The front has cleared most of the area, and we have slightly lower humidity in place now, but that drier air with sunshine will allow temperatures to efficiently heat up. Someone should hit 90 degrees today, but most of us will top out in the mid to upper-80s. A shower can’t be completely ruled out south of the city toward Matagorda Bay.

Weekend

Saturday looks to be a fairly uneventful day with sun, clouds, warm and more humid air, and just a very, very slight shower chance. Temperatures will warm from the 60s into the upper-80s to near 90 degrees or better in spots.

Sunday looks a little bit more interesting in terms of rain chances. I think most of us will see no rain, but there will be some neighborhoods that will host a shower or storm on Sunday. We’ll go from near 70 in the morning into the mid-80s, if not upper-80s by afternoon. I’d expect the shower chances and some additional clouds to hold temperatures down a degree or two relative to Saturday though.

Monday

Alright, our much ballyhooed front is still expected to arrive here in Houston on Monday. It’s still a bit too early to get too cute on timing, but I would expect the best chance of storms later in the day or evening, followed by gradual clearing late Monday night or early Tuesday. Clouds, showers, and the front should combine to keep our temperatures from warming much beyond the upper-70s on Monday.

Rain totals are likely to vary, and because of the relatively progressive nature of the front, we will probably see a half-inch to three-quarters of an inch or less in most areas. This will certainly help take the edge off a bit given recent dryness, but it will do little to actually dent the burgeoning drought in our area.

Rest of next week

The Tuesday through Thursday period next week is being delivered by Yordan Álvarez, because it’s a home run. Expect three days of sunshine, low humidity, and cool, crisp autumn air. Highs will be in the low-70s, cooler perhaps on Wednesday and warmer on Thursday. Morning lows? Yeah, we have a shot at 40s.

Expect 50s area-wide next Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday mornings. Much of the area will probably be in the 40s on Wednesday and Thursday morning. Beyond that, we’re probably looking at a warm up next weekend into the week of the 24th. More on that next week.