Matt Lanza

Today was certainly a day. First off, we want to express our thoughts and best wishes to those impacted by today’s tornadoes, and we hope that the recovery process presents the fewest amount of headaches that are possible.

Tornadoes of that scale and length are not common in Houston. Since 1993, we’ve had a number of “strong” (EF-2+) tornadoes in the Houston area, most of which have been on the eastern side of the city. Today’s tornado was no exception. Here’s a map of tornadoes since 1993 that are EF-2 or greater. Only one in the immediate area rated an EF-3, which was a short tracked twister near Shoreacres in 2002.

In the tornado records, an EF-2 tornado has never struck the Houston area in January. Why 1993 as a cutoff? Because November 1992 had the king of modern Houston tornado outbreaks, including an F4 in Channelview, which we wrote about a few years ago.

If you’re curious, here’s a map of all known “strong” tornadoes in the Houston region since 1950.

The National Weather Service will be sending out survey teams tomorrow morning to assess the damage and assign a rating to the tornadoes. So we will see if it was indeed a “strong” tornado or not. Remember, the rating is determined by a number of factors, not the least of which is building construction. Some poorly constructed, smaller buildings can be obliterated in a mere EF-1 tornado. Based on the initial photos of damage, I am guessing it will be at least an EF-2. But the NWS folks are the experts on this, and they’ll make that call.

Today also marked the first time a Tornado Emergency has been issued in Houston. We all know about Flash Flood Emergencies from recent years. But Tornado Emergencies certainly represent a new kind of horror for our area. They are rare and only issued when there is a confirmed, likely strong to catastrophic tornado ongoing in a populated area. If ever there were a day to issue one in Houston, today was the day. Hopefully we don’t see that again for many years.

Not to be outdone, the rainfall today was tremendous for January. We still have flooding ongoing out by Mound Creek and Little Cypress Creek in western Harris County. Several bayous ended up at bankfull or even out of their banks today. We mentioned flooding. We mentioned heavy rain. But we probably could have been a little more aggressive on the rainfall aspect of things. Today certainly qualified as a Stage 1 flooding event on our flood scale.

At any rate, we’ll know more about today’s events tomorrow. On a personal note, I want to thank the folks at the National Weather Service, as well as our other colleagues across media here in Houston for a very strong, effective messaging campaign today. Collectively, our messaging and the issuance of a Tornado Emergency by NWS no doubt helped protect lives and property in the Houston area today. For us here at SCW, this is truly why we exist. I saw several comments say that “we saw Eric and Matt really ramp up their messaging today, so it was concerning.” That’s exactly why we operate how we do. We want to be the jovial, informative but not in your face meteorologists 90-95 percent of the time. But on days like today, we get serious and down to business. Houston gets a lot of severe weather “days,” but most of them are low-end potential. They get a lot of chatter and sometimes some hype, and yes maybe on a couple of those days something happens. But we knew this had a unique high end potential for this area, and at least in a couple parts of the area, this potential was likely realized. We are grateful it was not worse. As we always say, we are here to help serve the community, and tomorrow we will be back to our normal, mostly boring selves. But when it’s really, truly time to stand up, act, and pay attention, we will make sure that message gets across. Thanks for your continued loyalty and readership. -Matt

Happy Friday to those of you celebrating. I just want to give a quick thanks to Eric for covering me last Friday, as I attended the American Meteorological Society’s annual meeting in Denver. I also got to give a talk about the Space City Weather Flood Scale, and we may have some opportunities to partner up with some experts to improve it, something I’m excited to wade into (pun intended). The talk should be publicly available to view in a couple months. I’ll let you know when that happens.

Our forecast today features a bit of a mix, including two fairly decent rain opportunities, one tomorrow and another next week.

Today

Clouds will be on the increase today have arrived today, as the first of our two systems comes this way. Yesterday was sunny and pleasant. Today will be cloudy and cool. High temperatures should check in about 15 degrees cooler than Thursday, with most areas not escaping the mid or upper-50s. As far as rain goes, sprinkles and/or showers will begin to spread from southwest to northeast as the day progresses. Most places should see some form of rain by this afternoon.

Tonight into Saturday

While it probably will not rain all night tonight, there will be periods of drizzle, light rain, and moderate rain likely at times through the night. A stray rumble of thunder is also possible. These waves of showers and rain will continue pumping in through much of Saturday. Again, it’s unlikely that it will rain everywhere all day. But you’ll need an umbrella at the ready wherever you are.

This is unlikely to be a soaker for most of the area, but we will see some places with a decent amount of rain, perhaps close to an inch or so. Other areas will only see a couple tenths of an inch or so.

In addition to the rain, it will be rather breezy, especially over the water and near the coast. Winds of 15 to 25 mph will be likely, along with some higher gusts, especially in the morning on Saturday. That’ll add some chill to the air.

Temperatures will fall back into the low-50s Friday night and Saturday morning before climbing back into the mid or upper-50s Saturday afternoon.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend looks lovely, with sunshine, less wind, and highs around 60 degrees after morning lows in the 40s or upper-30s.

Monday

I would expect mostly a repeat of things Monday, although clouds may increase a bit later in the day, and temperatures will warm from the low-40s into the mid-60s.

Tuesday and beyond

If there is one day worth watching in terms of weather, it’s Tuesday. Modeling has been fairly inconsistent on the exact details of this next system, but a couple things are known. There is likely going to be a storm system that develops in Texas. It will bring both rain and wintry precipitation to the state (just rain here in Houston). But depending on the exact strength and track of this system, we could be in for some strong or severe thunderstorms Tuesday in the Houston area.

Right now the warm front is expected to be just offshore, which keeps our instability and chances at severe weather rather low. However, if this shifts farther north any, we could be in for a forecast change. So you’ll want to check back with us on Monday. In addition to an inch or locally more of rain, I would expect some pretty healthy wind on Tuesday too.

If you are planning any travel to North Texas, Oklahoma, or the Panhandles there is a pretty decent chance that snow or ice could be an issue. This is primarily true for Lubbock and Amarillo into Wichita Falls and Oklahoma, but I would also watch the DFW Metroplex and Abilene as well.

We have a long way to go here, so specific details are impossible to flesh out, but this could be an impactful storm for parts of the state. After this storm passes, we look good for a few days, with highs mostly in the 50s and lows in the 40s or upper-30s.

We’ve got a little something for almost everyone over the next several days: Cool temps, warm temps, some humidity, and some rain too. A potpourri of mostly low impact weather.

Today

Southeast Texas should be able to squeeze out one more super nice day before clouds arrive this weekend. We may have a bit of a hazy morning with generally poor air quality. There’s even some locally dense fog south and west of Houston this morning. But it will eventually flip to sunshine. We’ll manage to climb into at least the mid-70s with just a slight nudge up in humidity by later today and tonight. Clouds should begin to break out tonight, which will keep temperatures a bit warmer than they have been of late. We’ll bottom out around 60, if not even a little warmer in spots.

Saturday

I would expect partly to mostly cloudy skies tomorrow. If you have morning plans, it should be mostly fine, though a few isolated showers may begin to break out in spots by mid or late morning. If you have afternoon plans, more showers will develop, especially toward the north and west of Houston. So you may dodge raindrops. That should become a little more widespread Saturday evening, along with a slight chance of thunder. Temperatures will jump well into the 70s to near 80 degrees tomorrow before dropping back into the 50s tomorrow night.

Rain totals may be held back some due to the scattered nature of the storms, but most of us will get at least some rain, with an average of a half-inch to three-quarters of an inch. Some may see less, and others could see as much as 2 or 3 inches in the most steady storms.

Sunday

Expect the inverse of Saturday: Some morning showers south and east of Houston but then decreasing clouds and increasing sunshine. It will be a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler on Sunday, with highs in the mid-60s.

Early next week

We may be in and out of clouds or some patchy fog on Monday and Tuesday into Wednesday. Other than that, it will be generally fair and mild. We think. With the weekend front sort of parked offshore, some coastal areas may see a few showers. Either way, it looks like a mostly quiet period, with increasing temperatures. We’ll warm from the mid to upper 60s Monday into the mid-70s by Wednesday, with morning lows generally in the 50s or upper-40s. Not bad for January.

Late next week and beyond

The next front in line is penciled in for Thursday. That should come with some showers or a thunderstorm, but it’s still a bit soon to speculate on how widespread any rain will be. More importantly, that front ushers in what should be our coolest air mass of 2023, with lows in the 40s by Friday, Saturday, and probably Sunday.

Our outlook for the Houston Marathon has held fairly steady this week. Today it looks like morning 40s, quickly rising into the 50s and low-60s with light winds and dry weather. A lot can change in 9 days, but right now, we’re sitting in a decent spot.

It appears that any cool weather will be short-lived however, as we expect a pretty significant warm up after Sunday next weekend. We have pretty healthy model agreement on temperatures warming deep into the 70s as the weather pattern amplifies warmer over us for several days the week of the 16th.

It was 15 degrees in Houston a week ago this morning. We managed 77 degrees yesterday afternoon. The winter roller coaster is here. In addition to the warmth, we saw some pretty gnarly storms over parts of the area, even a Tornado Warning down near Galveston.

As Eric accurately noted yesterday, the rainfall was quite erratic. Rain totals ranged from over 5 inches near in Galveston County to next to nothing in western Harris, northern Fort Bend, and southern Waller Counties. In between, it was hit and miss. Some areas saw tremendous displays of lightning, while others may have only heard some distant rumblings. So it goes. We’ll settle in to some very mild but fair weather over the next few days before our next speed bump on Monday.

Today

We have a little patchy fog in spots this morning. Other than that, just a lot of clouds. On the whole, we’ll call it “decreasing clouds” with hopefully a bit of sunshine later today. Depending on sunshine, we’ll either hit the upper-60s or low-70s today. Accompanying last evening’s system was a very weak front that will make its presence felt tonight, sort of. Light north winds should allow temperatures to dip into the 50s.

New Year’s Eve & air quality concerns

We should have partly to mostly sunny skies across the area tomorrow, along with highs into the 70s. All your festivities, from “Noon Years” for those of us with little ones to watch parties for TCU hopefully beating up on the Fighting Harbaughs of Michigan to evening celebrations look great. The only thing to watch will be areas of fog near the coast, so use some caution if you’ll be out and about late Saturday night and after midnight Sunday morning.

One word of caution: Fireworks and air quality.

Unfortunately, the setup this New Years is going to be one that features mostly light winds and likely a very strong inversion in the atmosphere. In simple language? All the pollution from those fireworks everyone sets off on New Year’s Eve probably isn’t going to go far, and we are likely in for some very unhealthy, if not outright hazardous air quality across the region at times late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. The good news is that winds don’t look totally calm, but they will be light. So if you have respiratory difficulties, it would be a good idea to keep an eye on area air quality readings. Winds and “mixing” will pick up after 9 or 10 AM Sunday. So if we end up with a lot of trapped smoke in the early morning, the afternoon should at least be nicer.

New Year’s Day

As noted, air quality may be an issue Sunday morning, but at least it should become sunny. Some morning fog is possible, if not likely in spots, and clouds will likely increase through the day. Highs could get to 80 degrees in spots. Coastal areas may again see fog persist deep into the day.

Monday

The forecast for Monday continues to look a bit tricky. It may play out very similar to yesterday, with numerous storms, locally heavy rain, and isolated severe weather. Or it could be more widespread. We still don’t have a great handle on this and likely will not until Sunday. Look for an average of a half-inch or so of rain, but it’s likely many places see less and others, especially east of I-45 see 3 inches or more. Highs will top off near 80 in spots, 70s elsewhere.

Rest of next week (and chances of a freeze-peat this winter?)

After Monday’s rain, a cold front and slow clearing should arrive on Tuesday, bringing much cooler weather for Wednesday. We’ll probably drop back to 60s by day and 40s by night for much of the rest of next week. Another warm up is likely late next week or weekend.

We’ve seen a lot of questions about the chances of another freeze this winter. Put simply: We have no idea. There’s no rule that says if you freeze in December like we did this year that it can’t happen again later in January or February. The odds are no different the rest of winter today than they were a month ago. So, yes, it’s possible it could happen again. Likely? Not necessarily. There’s no sign of emergent cold in Canada or the Plains over the next 2 weeks, meaning any strong cold is unlikely here through mid-January. If anything, the jet stream in the Pacific Ocean is trying to ramp up again in mid-January, which could signal another period of warm weather to come. The takeaway? While we see no sign of a freeze-peat right now, that doesn’t mean things can’t change later in January or February. But it’s neither more or less likely than normal because we had one this month.

Happy New Year to you, readers. On behalf of Eric, Maria, Lee, and Dwight, thank you all for a great 2022, and we look forward to another great year in 2023.