In brief: Houston gets to bathe in near-80° weather today before a cold front tonight sends us back to autumn and early winter with the coldest air of the season so far arriving. A light freeze is possible north and west of the city on Tuesday night and Wednesday night before we bring back rain chances and warm up this weekend.
Today
After a dreary weekend, especially Sunday, we will start the week on a bit of a nicer note. Look for some sunshine today mixed up with cloud cover. Let’s call it “decreasing clouds.” We don’t expect any rain, but what we do expect is warmth. Warm air getting pumped in from the southwest will allow our high temperature today to flirt with 80 degrees! This will be a few degrees shy of the 85° record from 2021. Still, for the warm weather lovers, enjoy. It changes again tomorrow.
Tuesday through Thursday
A cold front is going to push through the region tonight, ushering in a much colder air mass for Tuesday. Despite sunshine, morning lows in the 40s and 50s will be sluggish to warm up on increasing northwest winds Tuesday afternoon. We’ll manage 60 or the low-60s at best. Then, the coldest mornings of the season so far will follow on Wednesday and Thursday. We should see lows in the 30s in the city, near freezing in some of the northern and western suburbs, and at or below freezing just north and west of there.
Freezing temperatures are unlikely in Houston proper on Wednesday and Thursday mornings but for areas north and west of the city, a light freeze is possible. (Pivotal Weather)
Wind gusts on Tuesday evening will be 25 to 35 mph, strongest at the coast. We should see sunshine and highs in the 50s or around 60 degrees on Wednesday. Thursday will probably see increasing clouds with morning lows similar to Wednesday morning and afternoon highs in the low to mid-60s.
Friday and the weekend
Warmer temps will try to work back into the region Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, with highs approaching the 70s again. Morning lows will step up into the 40s and then 50s, if not low-60s this weekend as well. Unfortunately, it’s looking a bit dreary again. Despite the off and on rain this weekend, almost all the area saw merely a quarter to half-inch of rain. So it was not a lot. This coming weekend could see even a bit less than that. So for now, let’s open the bidding at a quarter-inch or so on average this weekend, especially given how recent rains seem to have underperformed. We’ll fine tune things as we get closer.
A high probability of warmer than normal temperatures exists from Saturday through midweek next week across the southern Plains and western Gulf. (NOAA CPC)
Our next meaningful cold front looks to arrive sometime midweek or late week next week. We are still a couple of days away from having a solid indication on Christmas weather, so let’s wildly speculate instead. With colder weather late next week, we could see a warming trend leading into the holiday but exactly how warm is TBD. More to come.
In brief: Will Houston manage another freeze this winter? We discuss what’s been in the news. Rain totals this weekend seem to have backed down some but there will still be some serious temperature and humidity changes into Monday before the coldest air of winter so far arrives next week. A light freeze is possible by Thursday morning outside the city.
Will Houston see a serious freeze this winter?
In the news lately has been ERCOT’s reported prediction of a “greater than average” chance of an extreme cold event this winter. Full disclosure: I know Chris Coleman personally, and he’s a solid forecaster and a good guy. ERCOT uses the fact that 5 of the last 8 winters have seen an extreme cold snap in Texas, as well as the fact that the majority of our extreme cold events since 1950 have occurred in La Niña winters. Interestingly, many of those cold snaps have occurred in otherwise mild winters, including 2016-17, our warmest Texas winter on record! So are these events indeed happening more frequent, or is this perhaps the law of averages catching up with us?
All instances of Houston hitting 21 degrees or colder since the late 1800s. (NOAA)
Going back to the 1800s, Houston has officially hit 21° or colder a total of 124 times. As noted, we’ve done it in 2024, 2022, 2021, 2018, and 2017. So it’s been a busy stretch, in addition to a few other instances in 2014, 2011, and 2010. But prior to 2010, we had last done this in 1996. So we went 14 years without hitting it once before racking up a bunch. The only real comparable stretch to that gap was 1918 to 1928, when we got shut out of sub-21° nights. You’ll notice from the data above that while the quantity of years seeing extreme cold seems to have revved up some in recent years, the duration of these cold spells seems to have shortened. And you see fewer winters with multiple extreme cold spells. Some of that is urban heat island effects due to Houston’s enormous growth. Some of that is the warming Gulf of Mexico in our backyard and/or climate change. But mostly, it’s actually kind of typical to have this type of cold in Houston every few winters. Yes, it’s been busy in recent years. But I think that’s more a consequence of having experienced few major cold snaps between 1996 and 2018 more than anything.
So what are we saying? It probably makes sense to prepare every winter for a pop of extreme cold. It may only last a few days, but it can obviously cause problems. And to the original point about this winter: Given the La Niña in place, there should be an ample reservoir of cold built up in Canada by later January and February. It’s a weak La Niña to be sure, but it should still allow for more Canadian cold than in a typical winter. If the wrong setup comes along to dislodge that into the Plains, that’s when we could experience a pop of extreme cold this winter. Putting all this together, it’s not at all illogical to state we have a greater than normal chance of experiencing a brief extreme cold outbreak this winter. Coleman also mentioned in his ERCOT presentation that for cold weather, “This is like a tornado watch. Doesn’t mean a tornado is going to happen. It means conditions are there.” And I think that’s the key takeaway from all this. And it’s also something Eric noted in our commentary on winter back in early November.
On to the weather, of which there is a good bit to discuss this weekend.
Today
We should close the week out on a cool but benign note. There are some clouds pushing northward across Matagorda Bay, toward Wharton and west out toward perhaps Columbus or Sealy. But aside from that, sun and some clouds rule the day. A chilly morning in the 40s should warm deep into the 50s this afternoon. I would not entirely rule out a passing shower before the end of today, primarily between Matagorda Bay and Columbus or perhaps up toward College Station. Nothing big, just don’t be shocked if you feel some raindrops.
Saturday
Tomorrow will be our transition into a temporary warm pattern, priming us for a wet Sunday. Look for clouds and kind of damp, raw weather on Saturday as humidity levels increase. We’ll manage the mid-50s or a bit milder for highs but between a few showers, the cloud cover, and that rising humidity, “clammy” may be an appropriate descriptor. Look for some low clouds or drizzle in spots in addition to passing showers here or there.
Sunday
More numerous showers seem likely on Sunday across most of the region. The area is in a marginal risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall. At this point we think that the only flooding would be typical ponding issues on area roadways (ex: frontage roads) or in small areas that see brief street flooding due to downpours. Modeling seems to have backed down on the amount of rainfall to expect and rain totals have generally been cut as a result.
Average rain totals should be around a half-inch in most spots, with isolated higher and lower amounts. (Pivotal Weather)
The best ingredients to sustain rainfall will be to our east, so places like Beaumont or Lake Charles will be more apt to see more rain it seems. Temps will surge on Sunday though as warm air floods in off the Gulf, along with breezy conditions. Look for highs well into the 60s.
Next week
There will be a disconnect between this weekend system and the incoming cold front, so Monday falls firmly in the warm category. We’ll manage highs into the 70s with a good bit of humidity. The cold front hits Monday night, which as of now looks fairly dry. It appears a secondary front arrives Tuesday afternoon. The combination of the two will allow for Tuesday’s temperatures to drop into 60s for highs and allow for the coldest air of the season Wednesday night.
Morning lows will be in the upper-30s in the city but mid-30s or cooler in outlying areas, leading to a potential light freeze in spots. (Pivotal Weather)
Some places will approach freezing Wednesday night and Thursday morning, primarily north of Houston and outside the city. Daytime highs on both Wednesday and Thursday will limp into the upper-50s or low-60s at best. A somewhat more sustained warm up may follow next weekend and into the week of the 16th. More to come.
In brief: Periods of sun and clouds will be with us in Houston through Monday. Temperatures look cool and very autumn or early winter-like with generally 60s for highs and 40s for lows. A temporary warming trend and rain chances return next week.
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Today through Monday
Most of the next few days will be quiet, with only some subtle changes ongoing in the background. For one, today is much sunnier than most of yesterday was, except near the coast and south of Houston, where clouds are still a bit stubborn. But overall, expect more sunshine today. Saturday should see increasing cloud cover, while Sunday may be a lot like today with clouds clinging to southern areas and even perhaps a passing shower down there. Monday looks partly to mostly sunny.
Temperatures look pretty stable the next few days with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s in and around Houston. It will be cooler north of the area and perhaps a bit milder closer to the coast. (Weather Bell)
High temperatures will generally be in the 60s on average. A couple days may struggle to get out of the 50s north of Houston and up toward the Piney Woods. Likewise, lows will be in the 40s in Houston and the metro area most nights, with some 30s north of Houston and perhaps 50s south and near the coast. All in all, it will be a fine few days to check out Galaxy Lights, Radiant Nature, Zoo Lights, or any of the other outdoor displays around the region!
Tuesday, Wednesday, and beyond
The weather pattern changes somewhat considerably late Monday and Tuesday as warmer air begins to rush back in off the Gulf. First, we’ll see some cloud cover. But by Tuesday afternoon, we should see scattered to numerous showers and/or thunderstorms in the area. That will continue into Wednesday, along with a pretty healthy warm up. Expect highs back up into the 70s by Wednesday or Thursday.
Rain totals next week will be hit or miss but probably average around a half-inch with higher amounts possible. (Pivotal Weather)
It does appear another cold front is going to end this warming trend around Friday next week. More on that after the weekend.
In brief: Houston gets another day or two of nice weather before a big warm up Sunday and especially Monday (near record highs). A strong front with details TBD looks increasingly likely sometime on Thanksgiving Day, ushering in a spell of colder weather next weekend.
It’s another cool morning, with Bush Airport down to the 40s and Hobby down near 50 degrees. Look for another spectacular day today, with highs into the 70s or upper-60s and plentiful sunshine. Much the same tomorrow but it’ll be a couple degrees warmer.
Sunday
By Saturday evening, winds will have turned around to come from the southeast, ushering back in humidity and allowing for a pretty decent warming trend. We should punch back up to near 80 degrees Sunday afternoon, after a morning in the 50s. You will notice a breeze during the day and the humidity start to pick back up some by evening. It’ll be mainly sunny once again, however.
Monday’s forecast highs are close to records for the date. (Pivotal Weather)
Monday and Tuesday
Monday’s forecast for mid-80s will come close to testing the record of 86° set back in 1967. Look for our warmest temperatures then. A weak cool front is likely to push through the region either Monday afternoon or evening. I suppose we could see a passing shower Tuesday morning, but overall this front looks relatively uneventful. Tuesday will be a bit cooler, however, with highs back in the 70s and morning lows in the 50s or low-60s.
Wednesday’s weather map shows a significant storm in Colorado with just a few showers to our east. Travel within Texas should be mostly fine. (NOAA WPC)
Wednesday
The big travel day. A storm system in the lee of the Rockies will begin to develop on Wednesday. Locally, this will lead to a significant shift back to onshore winds. It will be breezy and a bit warmer Wednesday again with more humidity. Along with this could be some passing showers or thunderstorms. Highs will be back near 80, with morning lows in the 60s. Travel to Colorado will likely feature significant weather and mountain snow. Travel to Louisiana or points east should be mostly fine. Travel within Texas looks mostly fine for now as well.
Thanksgiving Day and beyond
Models seem to be in agreement that the next strong cold front hits on Thanksgiving Day. The good news is that it looks relatively moisture starved here in Southeast Texas — for now. We’ll see if that continues. But the it will turn windy and sharply colder at some point either Thursday or in time for napping on Thursday evening it appears. Temperatures should fall into the 40s Thursday night.
Colder weather invades from the north late next week, blanketing much of the country in below average temperatures. (NOAA)
Colder weather will remain through the rest of the holiday weekend. I am guessing we’ll see a reinforcing shot of colder weather to follow Sunday or Monday before perhaps a more meaningful warming trend after the holiday.
