Matt Lanza

In brief: After Houston’s hottest summer day so far, more heat is likely to persist today through Thursday. A tropical disturbance (that will not develop) will bring ample rain and storm chances back to the area Friday and Saturday before we jump right back into the hot stuff next week.

Summer to date in context

Since the weather is pretty cut and dry the next few days, let’s talk briefly about this summer. Officially, yesterday was our hottest day of the year, with a daily average of 89 degrees at Bush Airport, besting the 88.5° we hit 4 times, last on June 21st. But someone messaged us on Instagram recently asking if it was a pretty mild summer so far. “I’ve been able to enjoy the mornings and evenings outside which hasn’t always been the case,” they noted. And, I had to agree! It’s been hot, just as every summer is, but we’ve had enough rain chances (almost daily it seems) to break it up. It’s felt kind of like what would be a typical Houston summer.

And then Lee Corso barged in and said, “Not so fast, my friend.”

Statistically, from June 1st through Sunday, this has been the 7th hottest summer on record to date in Houston. In fact, we’re even a smidge hotter than 2024, though significantly trailing 2022 and 2023 to this point. We have averaged 84.9 degrees officially. This is about a solid 2 degrees warmer than normal. So why has it seemed less intense? In a word, the daytimes. Our daily high temperatures average 19th hottest on record. In other words, although this is one of Houston’s hottest summers on record to date, it hasn’t been that bad during the daytime. So it hasn’t seemed too intense. And on the days that it has been bad, we’ve often had rain showers to punctuate things. However, if you look at nighttime lows? It’s the 3rd warmest summer on record to date, trailing only 2022 and 2023 and only one spot ahead of 2024. Notice a pattern?

So factor it all together: Modestly hot days, punctuated by daily thunderstorms, followed by a bunch of persistently warm nights, and you get the seventh hottest summer to date in Houston that doesn’t feel all that terrible. It’s a weird outcome, but the numbers don’t lie.

Today through Thursday

Look for the heat to keep up the next 2 to 3 days. Each day will probably top off in the mid to upper 90s. I would not be the least bit surprised to see a few spots hit 100 degrees before Thursday is out. Given that this is the hottest weather we’ve had in a month and the hottest of summer, give yourself a little grace out there and take it easy, stay hydrated, check on pets, check on the elderly, and always check the backseat before you lock the car.

Friday and Saturday

The remnants of our old friend, Invest 93L are diving into the Florida Peninsula today. This system will enter the northwest Gulf on Wednesday, track west on Thursday, and it will probably come ashore between Matagorda Bay and Cameron, Louisiana on Friday. No development is expected, as wind shear is too hostile, and dry air is likely available for disruption. But, what it will do is pick up our shower and storm chances to close the week and start the weekend.

We are probably looking at a 40 to 60 percent chance of showers and storms on Friday and Saturday. This will allow high temps to plunge back into the low-90s. With enough clouds and rain, we may only make it to 90 degrees on either day in a few spots. In terms of total rainfall, it will not be uniform, as some areas will see modest amounts or little rain, while a few other locations could pick up 1 to 3 inches of rain, probably east of Houston or closer to the coast it seems right now. More on this tomorrow and Thursday.

Sunday into next week

That disturbance will exit on Sunday, lowering rain chances again. I would expect highs to return to the mid-90s by Sunday and then upper-90s at times next week, as a monster ridge of high pressure sets up over the Southern Plains. We will probably flirt with the hottest weather of summer again for much of next week.

In brief: As we approach our typical peak of summer heat, we’ll be seeing an uptick in temperatures through the week. We should see potentially upper-90s to near 100 in spots by late week before some shower chances re-enter the forecast. Even hotter weather is possible next week.

Houston’s summer heat typically peaks between July 29th and August 12th, when our average high temperatures sits at 96° and our average low temperature is 76 degrees. The actual peak date is probably around August 5th. So, we are nearing the top of the mountain, and this week may prove to include our hottest weather of summer.

Today through Wednesday

We will start the week with heat and humidity that slowly builds. Highs will push into the mid and perhaps upper 90s by midweek. Thunderstorm chances, while not quite zero each day are fairly low. Morning lows are likely to be in the upper 70s.

Thursday and Friday

I have a feeling that Thursday may be the hottest day of the week. And if not, then it will probably be Friday.

The National Weather Service’s experimental HeatRisk product puts our area in high risk on both days, with a strong edge to Thursday right now. Either way, expect some of the hottest weather of summer so far this week.

By the time we get to Friday, we may see showers or thunderstorms re-enter the forecast, depending on the track of a tropical wave in the Gulf. No development is expected, but a similar track to last week’s Invest 93L is possible, which could keep most of the rain to our east again — or a somewhat more southerly track could bring higher rain chances to our area by Friday. Something we’ll watch through the week, but the main takeaway here is that, again, no development is expected.

Weekend and beyond

Once that wave passes, we should sort of resume a typical summer pattern of heat, humidity, and slight daily storm chances in the area. It does appear that a very strong ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere is going to establish over the Southern Plains next week.

We may be on the periphery of it enough to get continued shower chances each afternoon, but if this flexes much further, we may see even hotter weather next week, perhaps the hottest of summer. Stay tuned.

In brief: Invest 93L is kaput, and now we will look for some heavier downpours in spots today. Rain chances begin to dwindle on Saturday and Sunday as a hotter, less unsettled pattern establishes over our region for much of next week.

Today

Our best chance of rain will come today. The radar as of early Friday morning shows widespread rain north of Liberty and in Louisiana. Additional, more isolated thunderstorms are popping up along I-10 near Beaumont and on the Bolivar Peninsula.

As we go through today, a lot of that steadier rain north of I-10 will probably dissipate. Even some of the thunderstorms this morning may fizzle. But a new round of scattered thunderstorms is likely this afternoon. For the most part, this will be like any other summer afternoon in Houston. Available atmospheric moisture will be a bit higher than usual though, so just be on the lookout for a downpour or two that could briefly flood streets in some parts of the city. Storms should fade after sunset.

Saturday

There should be a somewhat decent lingering shower chance here, but for the most part, any added moisture from the Invest 93L (RIP) would be exiting. I wouldn’t be floored to see a couple heavier downpours in the area though. Look for highs in the mid-90s.

Sunday through Tuesday

We’ve had very few days this summer that carried virtually zero rain chance. It would appear that Sunday through Tuesday carry good chances for that to be the case, however. Look for mostly sunshine. Another bout of Saharan dust could come our way Monday and Tuesday. For now, I’ll say mid-90s, but if the Saharan dust is minimal Monday and Tuesday, we do have a decent shot at upper-90s on those days in some parts of the area.

Late next week

The heat should stay cooking for later next week, with highs in the mid to upper-90s continuing. We may even see a stronger surge of heat later next weekend or the week of the 28th. Rain chances may pick back up a little by Friday or next weekend. Overall, it looks fairly dry next week across the region.

In brief: Serious flooding is ongoing in Central Texas along the Guadalupe and San Saba Rivers after a foot of rain or more fell across parts of that area. Locally, another round of thunderstorms is likely this afternoon, followed by a fairly typical summer-like pattern this weekend and beyond.

Thursday & Thursday night storms

As noted yesterday morning by Eric, the forecast changed rather abruptly. And yesterday’s storms, while fairly quick movers, hit with some punch. Thankfully they did, as we saw instantaneous rain rates as high as 4 to 6 inches per hour in spots! Rainfall varied overall, with as much as 2 inches or a bit more in northeast Harris County and about a quarter-inch in western Harris County.

On a more serious note, parts of Hill County have seen some severe rain overnight. South-Central Kerr County is estimated to have received as much as nearly a foot of rainfall. This has led to flash flood emergencies there and along the Guadalupe River. The river at Hunt, TX is approaching 30 feet, beyond the 1987 flood event at that gage.

Downstream in Kerrville, they aren’t expected to hit the 37 feet of 1987, but it still looks to be a top 3 flood. Meanwhile, San Angelo saw around 8 inches of rain, with over 12 inches just north of the city. Additional rivers are expected to rise deep into flood stage, with major flooding possible in spots. If you have friends or family that headed out to the Guadalupe or San Saba Rivers, make sure they’re taking any warnings from local officials seriously. More rain is possible today, with some already occurring again this morning.

Today

For Houston, today should probably unfold somewhat similar to yesterday with showers likely to pop up across the region this afternoon. Rain could again be heavy.

Storms should keep moving today limiting flooding risk. Some gusty winds and frequent lightning will be possible as well. We do expect storms to settle down or dissipate in time for evening celebrations across the region.

Weekend

Additional scattered showers and storms are likely tomorrow, followed by a lesser chance on Sunday. Overall, if you can just manage to live with some passing showers for an hour or two, the weekend should be fine. We’ll keep watching in case anything should change on us again, however. Expect highs in the mid-90s and lows in the 70s.

Next week

It looks like a mostly typical summer week next week. I would expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, with highs in the 90s. There may be a skew toward slightly less afternoon storm coverage and hotter temps later in the week.