Matt Lanza

In brief: Our first real legitimate autumn cold front will arrive on Saturday, and it should usher in an utterly spectacular fall day on Sunday. This will be followed by a return to a stubborn offshore low pressure system and front to drive up cloud cover and rain chances for next week. We continue to babysit it for tropical development but do not expect it to organize at this time.

The last time Houston had an official low in the 60s, the Astros were 25-33, behind both the Rangers and Mariners in the AL West standings. Despite a rough few days in Cincinnati, the Astros are 10 games above .500 and sitting 4 and a half games up on the Mariners. Our friends in Arlington are 8 games out of the last wild card spot. It’s been awhile. And this weekend, we should get to experience both a much better positioned baseball team than May 31st, as well as the coolest weather since then.

Today

It’s been a wet stretch. Galveston has had nearly 10 inches of rain since late August. Bolivar has seen 15 inches. We’re going to see the rain begin to slow down now, and we will drop the Stage 1 flood alert for the coast today. We may still see some showers today, especially at the coast again but it should be manageable in most cases. Other than that, expect clouds and sun with highs reaching into the middle or upper-80s.

Saturday

As the offshore low pressure system that’s flung rain our way begins to migrate eastward tomorrow, the much advertised cold front we’re expecting is en route. This drier push of air will help shut down the moisture feed inland, reducing shower chances to merely a passing chance at the coast tomorrow. There will be a bump in wind tomorrow at the coast, however, and there are small craft advisories and gale watches posted.

The cold front itself will probably push into Houston sometime around early afternoon. I doubt you’ll notice much as it passes. Humidity will gradually drop off later in the afternoon and evening, and that’s when you should really notice a change. The Dynamo game will be great. Temps will peak in the mid-80s after morning lows in the 70s. We may get back into the low 70s and have a midnight minimum temperature on Saturday night.

Sunday

Sunday morning should dawn sunny and delightfully pleasant. Lows in the 60s with low humidity, dewpoints in the 50s, and a slight breeze. Even Sunday afternoon will be nice, with highs in the low-80s. If you’re in Indy for the Texans opener, it’ll be in the 40s for morning lows, so any early tailgating may need a jacket up there! Really, just a delightful day. Maybe we can even get the roof open at Minute Maid Sunday night?

Coastal locations will have the trickiest forecast on Sunday. The front should clear the coast, and there should be that push of dry air all the way past Galveston and down to Matagorda Bay. However, there’s always an off-chance that something is being missed in the model guidance and we end up cloudier or a little more humid than expected down that way. Just something to note.

Next week

If you’ve been reading Eric’s posts here this week or my posts at The Eyewall, you know we are still monitoring the potential for tropical development in the Gulf next week. We don’t think anything will formally organize from this, but the Gulf, September, etc. You just have to babysit it.

Regardless of that, it is likely that some type of low pressure and/or stalled front sits off the Texas coast next week, similar to what we’ve been dealing with this week. In that scenario, we will likely see rain chances return as early as Monday and particularly on Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday. We could again see locally heavy rain, especially at the coast. And this is without tropical development. If we were to see tropical development, that may actually help keep more rain offshore, as the system would probably track just east of our area. So while our base case forecast will call for no tropical development, it does at least merit mentioning and babysitting on our end. We will keep you posted through the weekend and have more tomorrow or Sunday if necessary. That being said, the rain totals over the next week continue to look rather impressive, so we’ll have to keep an eye on how that unfolds going forward, particularly for saturated coastal locations.

Tropics

Beyond the potential development from the Gulf low next week, there is very little for us to discuss in the tropics as it relates to Houston or anywhere for that matter. The next wave to emerge off Africa heading into next week seems to have a decent chance of developing but also seems as if it will turn northwest rather quickly and stay out at sea. Given the expectations for this season, this is as good as you could ask for on September 6th. Fingers crossed it continues.

In brief: Periods of showers and storms will meander through the region over the holiday weekend. While most places should handle this fine, there remains a chance that coastal areas, especially between Chambers County and Port Arthur see some very heavy rainfall, requiring us to maintain our Stage 1 flood alert for coastal counties.

Rain thus far has been very scattered across the area. Just about everyone has seen a little, several places have seen a moderate amount (1 or 2 inches), and only a handful of places have seen a lot (about 4 inches). This pattern will continue, and we’ll maintain a Stage 1 flood alert for the coastal counties out of an abundance of caution. This does not include Houston proper or points north and west. This is one of those difficult cases to communicate. Modeling continues to flag the Port Arthur area into eastern Chambers County as a potential focal point for very heavy rainfall heading into the weekend. At the same time, we’ll probably just see periodic, manageable scattered downpours in Houston. But because there’s an element of risk near our area, it merits decent coverage. We’ll be with you through the holiday weekend as needed for updates.

Today

Radar this morning shows a lot of rain offshore and along the coast.

This was all generally moving parallel to the coast and more toward the eastern Chambers and western Jefferson County areas. I would expect to see showers pop off today around Houston eventually. However, with all this rain offshore, sometimes this tends to “rob” inland areas of any moisture. So all in all, it may not be too bad of a day in Houston and points north and west. So expect more just “passing” showers today and probably a good deal of cloud cover. Highs will be in the 80s in most places to low-90s north and west of Houston where more sun is likely.

Saturday & Sunday

There will continue to be a healthy chance of passing showers and storms both days this weekend ahead of the holiday. Neither day looks like a total washout, but there could be abundant clouds at times, and you’ll obviously want some backup plans in case rain hits your location for a time. Other than that, it will remain warm and fairly humid with highs in the upper-80s to low-90s and morning lows in the upper-70s.

Labor Day & Tuesday

Copy and paste the weekend, but with perhaps just slightly lower rain chances.

Rest of next week

We’ll likely continue to see daily shower and storm chances continue Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, but the setup may continue to gradually become a little less impressive. This may mean a little less coverage with each successive day. There continue to be rumors and allegations of a cool front next weekend. A cool front in early September means a drop in humidity, slightly cooler nighttimes, and hot daytimes. So, don’t get too worked up just yet. Much like Eric suggested yesterday, about a 25 percent chance this happens seems reasonable, though I will say that modeling has been nothing if not persistent with this signal since as far back as at least last weekend. Fingers crossed!

Tropics

Before we even dive in here, one cold front does not mean the end of hurricane season here in Texas. I looked at the data for this last year and determined no correlation. So, we do still need to keep tabs on the tropics.

The disturbance in the Atlantic is likely going to track into the Caribbean. As of right now, most model data supports a turn to the north at some point. However, where that occurs is impossible to say right now. It’s still early in the game here, so let’s keep an eye on this as it comes westward over the next week or so. Behind that there is another development candidate, and that too should hopefully turn north before getting too far west. So, for now we don’t have any serious threats here. But stay tuned. I’ll cover this more in depth at The Eyewall later.

In brief: After a week straight of 100s, we’re now on the downtrend, albeit slowly. Look for increasing rain chances heading toward next week and less hot (but not quite cool) weather. Each day will provide us at least a non-zero chance for a cooling downpour or thunderstorm.

Yesterday was Houston’s seventh consecutive 100 degree day. And while we may make light of this summer’s heat after last summer, did you know that this was only the 14th time since the 1890s that Houston has strung together a week straight of 100 degree weather? It’s true. Of the 14 instances of a week of 100s, eight have occurred since the year 2000. Only one occurred prior to 1962. The average temperature over the last week has been 90.2°, which only ranks tied for 94th hottest seven-day stretch all-time. So there you go. The good news is that the worst is over, and we can introduce the word “rain” again a little more frequently.

Today

We have some storms this morning drifting south and west out of Fort Bend County and into Matagorda County. So be on the lookout for that. Otherwise, we may get through today without a heat advisory.

We’ve got a slightly cooler air mass, slightly more humidity, and slightly higher rain chances today than we had yesterday. Some people did see rain and hear thunder on Thursday, including Sugar Land and Missouri City, as well as southeastern Brazoria County. Today, a few more of us should see raindrops besides those seeing them this morning. Expect scattered activity to pop up later, but rain chances are only around 20 percent. Where it rains later, look for temps in the 90s falling into the 70s or 80s for a time, then heating back up after it stops. Where it doesn’t rain, look for mid to upper-90s.

Weekend

The forecast for this weekend is straightforward but also tricky. In general, it will be sun, clouds, 90s, and a chance of a shower or storm with the sea breeze each afternoon. However, based on the model guidance I’m seeing this morning, I would lean toward Saturday being a quieter day overall and Sunday being more active, with a greater coverage of showers and storms. The European model and its AI model seem to support this idea, but I would have the umbrella and a plan to scoot inside on either weekend day.

Next week

We get to watch two things next week. The first will be this disturbance in the Gulf that pivots onshore on Sunday night and Monday. It will not develop into a tropical system, but it will continue rain chances into Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday for us. The second item may be a piece of another tropical wave over Hispaniola today that moves into the Gulf next week and adds another little bump in moisture levels toward next weekend. No development is expected. That said, it may peel off to our east into Louisiana before arriving.

We are looking at some modest rainfall overall, especially south of I-10. Locally heavier rain is likely in a few spots that are TBD right now. Basically, there will be a chance of rain every day next week, with some day to day variation in coverage and specific locations of highest rain chances. This should not be a major rain setup for Houston, but it will certainly be a change from this week. Highs will be in the low or mid-90s, so not exactly cool but with periodic rains and more clouds, it will be more tolerable overall.

The tropics remain quiet. More on that at The Eyewall later this morning.

In brief: Heat and humidity will be a bit worse than usual for August this weekend, and although things ease up just a bit next week, we will remain hot and mostly dry. There may be a shift toward better rain chances next weekend.

Today through next week

Sunny, hot, humid. Highs in the mid-90s to near 100 degrees. Maybe a rain chance. And you know what? I congratulate my neighbors that have seen showers this week and may luckily see showers into the weekend too. Good for you, I say!

Why is this happening?

In all seriousness, we all know the forecast at this point, so I figured I’d take a moment to discuss the “why” today. It’s kind of fascinating. Last summer we saw a suppressed, strong ridge of high pressure over Mexico that would continuously flex over Texas. This kept us in the 100s daily and made last summer another level of terrible. This summer? Much different. Texas has been stuck generally between persistent areas of high pressure, one in the East, one in the West. To date, it’s been the hottest summer on record by a mile for Las Vegas and Phoenix. For Atlanta it’s the fourth hottest to date, and for Raleigh, NC it’s the third hottest. For Houston, it’s “only” been the 12th hottest summer and, even less impressive the 24th hottest for our frienemies in Dallas.

But so far this month, the pattern has changed allowing for the Western ridge to expand into Texas somewhat, which has in turn allowed us to crank the heat. Over the next five days, check out where the ridge of high pressure situates.

Over the next week it basically sets up shop just to our west, which will keep us firmly under the influence of heat. Unlike last summer, we aren’t directly underneath the high, so we will have some modest rain chances and it won’t be as extreme as was seen last year. But our weather will continue to be controlled by this feature. Odds of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation will remain strong heading deep into next week. The next few days should be the worst of it for now. We may see a relaxation in this pattern later next week with the ridge retreating a little more to the west leading to slightly better rain chances toward next weekend.

Whatever the case, this coupled with a quiet tropical Atlantic over the next several days (outside of Ernesto) is not necessarily a bad thing for Houston. We’ll take it, but do take it easy with this weekend’s heat.