Matt Lanza

I’m going to start today’s post off by answering a question we get a lot of this time of year: Is it safe to get plants back outside or plant things because the risk of freezing temperatures is now basically over? Since 1980, today (Feb 18) is the average date of the last freeze in Houston. But freezing temperatures have occurred as late as early April. Given what I am seeing out on the weather maps (some fresh Plains snowpack and bitterly cold air sitting in the northern Rockies & Dakotas next week), I would absolutely advise against moving forward into spring mode just yet. Even with the cold to our north, the risk of another freeze may not be especially high in Houston. But there’s enough risk out there in the longer range forecast models that it would be prudent to hold off at least another week or two.

Today

Temperatures are rather chilly this morning. Lows are generally in the 30s in most spots. With a lingering breeze after last night, wind chill values are in the 20s. Bundle up this morning heading out the door!

We’ll see sun and some passing high clouds through the day today. Expect temperatures to work their way up into the mid-50s in most spots. The breeze will continue trending mercifully lighter than it was last night.

Saturday & Sunday

No issues are expected this weekend. Look for sunshine on Saturday and increasing clouds on Sunday. For those of you with outdoor plans on Sunday, you should be fine. However, I would not be shocked to see at least a couple stray showers, mainly south of Houston on Sunday afternoon or evening. Look for highs in the 60s on Saturday and near 70 on Sunday.

Morning lows will be chilly once again tomorrow morning, but south of Houston they should be at least a few degrees milder than today.

Sunday morning should be milder everywhere, with 40s for most spots and possibly only 50s south of Houston.

Monday

Humidity is going to absolutely surge into the area on Monday off the Gulf. Look for gusty south winds that will allow temperatures to warm deep into the 70s and not drop below the mid-60s Monday night. There may be some showers or a storm on Monday, especially north of Houston.

Tuesday

We’ll warm up even more on Tuesday with an onshore breeze and high humidity. Look for fog to develop, especially close to the coast. Even with any fog, we will probably make an effort to hit or exceed 80 degrees on Tuesday.

A few showers cannot be ruled out, but any organized rain will probably stay well off to our north.

Beyond Tuesday

The forecast for Wednesday and Thursday remains a bit complicated right now. A cold front is likely to slide toward the area, but whether or not it gets offshore will dictate what temperatures do. We could see lows in the 40s if the front can get offshore. If it doesn’t, lows will be in the 60s. Highs could again push 80 degrees if the front doesn’t get offshore, or we could remain mired in the 50s all day if it does. Until we know what this front is going to do, the best we can say is be prepared for two seasons and a chance of showers late next week.

It does appear, a decisive push offshore should occur by Friday morning which should allow for showers and storms over much of the area, followed by a colder, drier weekend. More details on that Monday.

Quick note

We’re going to being offering our readers a special Presidents’ Day weekend treat this year: I’ve spent some time in recent weeks playing around with and being alerted by various weather apps on my phone. This weekend, I’ll be publishing what I learned in our guide to weather apps (besides ours). Look for that tomorrow or Sunday!

Buckle up! It’s going to be a bit of a ride from the perspective of comfort over the next 24 hours. But that will setup what should be a decent weekend.

Today

This morning has a bunch of mostly light to moderate showers showing up across the region as the first piece of today’s change works through. This is not the cold front but rather what we call a pre-frontal trough, or a dryline. It will deliver scattered showers, light rain, or drizzle, mainly north of I-10. A couple heavier showers or a storm can’t be entirely ruled out to the north of Houston, but no severe weather is expected.

The sun should come out more aggressively by late morning across the majority of the area once this pre-frontal trough nudges through.

With gusty northwest winds and much lower humidity this afternoon, temperatures will jump up until the actual cold front arrives. Look for that front to get to College Station before 2 PM, the northern & western suburbs of Houston by 4 PM, downtown by 5 PM, and the coast before 7 PM. Give or take an hour or two.

When the front arrives, temperatures should drop 10 to 15 degrees over an hour or two and winds will shift from the west to the north. Before that, we’ll likely see highs into the 70s in most spots, with a chance for upper-70s in the city and south and east of Houston.

Tonight

Once the front pushes offshore, we’ll see a few clouds and continued gusty north winds of 15 to 25 mph. Temperatures will continue to steadily march down, until Friday morning, when most of the region will be in the 30s.

Temperatures could bottom out near freezing in the typical spots well north or west of Houston (Conroe or southwest of Katy/Fulshear). Passing high clouds and the wind will likely limit just how cold most areas can get, so 35 degrees seems to be the cutoff for most places south and 30 degrees north.

Friday & Saturday

After that chilly start on Friday morning, look for high clouds through the day. This will keep temperatures in check a little further, and while mid to upper-50s is the current forecast, we may need to shave a couple degrees off that number if clouds are a little more widespread or thicker. We’ll get another dose of chilly temperatures on Friday night, but it should remain in the upper-30s to low-40s in most spots.

Saturday looks great. Expect sunshine and slightly warmer weather. We’ll march to about 60 degrees or a little warmer with a light wind. Some clouds may attempt to linger south of I-10 at times, but short of that, there should be little to trouble you on Saturday.

Sunday

Clouds will start to push back into the region as winds flip onshore Sunday. Temperatures should still be able to get well into the 60s despite the clouds. A stray shower is possible in the afternoon, especially close to the coast.

Monday and Tuesday

Look for warm, humid weather to settle in for both Monday and Tuesday. Shower chances will push across the area Monday and stay mostly north of the Houston area Tuesday. Temperatures should have no trouble getting well into the 70s, if not back to 80 degrees, especially by Tuesday. Morning lows will be mostly in the 60s.

Beyond Tuesday

A cold front is going to try and push through Houston on Tuesday night, but models disagree about how far it will get. This will have significant impacts on our temperature forecast (the difference between 50s and 70s), and also on our rain forecast. So the forecast on Wednesday and Thursday is kind of a coin flip right now. Look for a more decisive cold front to push through either later Thursday or Friday, and that should usher in somewhat colder air for next weekend.

It is pretty clear that the worst of winter is now behind us in Texas, and while winter is by no means “over,” we should see generally pleasant conditions going forward. Occasional cold fronts will probably ensure that outcome at least through next weekend.

Today

Fog is around much of the area outside the city this morning, so take some care while driving.

We’ll see plenty of sunshine again today, but there should be at least a few clouds around. We’ll warm back into the 70s again this afternoon.

Saturday

I think tomorrow will come with mixed reviews. We have a cold front that will push through the region in the morning. This will probably bring at least a broken line of showers or some rain through the area in the morning hours. So if you have outdoor plans, I might suggest the afternoon over the morning if possible. However, that may also come with a price tag in the form of cooler temperatures. No 70s on Saturday; we’ll see temperatures likely peak in the 50s in the morning and then probably stay there Saturday afternoon.

With a noticeable breeze included, 15 to 25 mph at times, it will feel like February.

Sunday

Temperatures will drop through the 40s and into the 30s Saturday night, bottoming out in the 30s in most areas away from the coast. Look for AM lows perhaps at or below freezing up near Conroe or in some isolated spots outside the city and suburbs.

Sunday itself will be delightful with sunshine, diminishing winds, and highs near 60 degrees.

Monday & Tuesday

Look for continued pleasant weather on Valentine’s Day with temperatures starting in the 30s and warming into the 60s. Dining al fresco will be cool but probably tolerable with evening temperatures around 60 degrees, give or take. Winds will be light. Tuesday should be similarly nice, with sunshine and upper 60s after morning 40s.

Beyond Tuesday

We’ll see a pretty aggressive warm up begin Tuesday night and Wednesday with a 10+ day stretch of sub-50 degree low temperatures likely ending on Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the 70s on Wednesday and not drop below 60 degrees on Wednesday night. Our next cold front is aiming for Thursday, and Thursday’s temperatures will depend on the exact timing of the front. If it’s late in the day, we’ll go deep into the 70s, but if it’s earlier, we may not get much past the mid-60s. More on that for you Monday.

As far as actual weather goes, we’ll likely contend with some fog at times on Wednesday and Thursday, in addition to clouds and sun. Thursday’s front may come with a bit of punch, so I suspect we’ll be tracking thunderstorms, particularly north of I-10 as it passes through. The Storm Prediction Center is already highlighting days 6 and 7 for severe risks in North Texas (Wednesday) and northern Louisiana (Thursday). This looks like a more classic Houston situation where “capping” in the atmosphere will be present for us, limiting risk of severe weather. But we’ll give you more details on that next week. Fair, cooler weather should build in for Presidents’ Day weekend.

As a reminder, you can download the Space City Weather app on your Apple or Android device. And if you o or someone you know would prefer your weather information in Spanish, please check out our Spanish language companion site, Tiempo Ciudad Espacial, helmed by Maria Sotolongo!

Good morning, and it’s certainly nice to wake up to no power issues related to the grid across Texas. ERCOT’s status is normal. That being said, we do have some considerable travel issues to contend with this morning. Those should slowly improve today, and the weekend looks like a pretty nice one, if you like calm winter weather.

This morning

Current temperatures across the Houston area are in the mid to upper-20s away from the coast and generally around the low-30s at the coast.

Wind chills are about 10 degrees colder than this, with mostly low to mid-teens around the region.

Precipitation ended for most folks yesterday evening, and radar is quiet this morning across the area with everything basically offshore now. But the damage is done in terms of road conditions west of Houston. Icy patches are still being reported west of Katy and in far northwest Harris County. While you should be able to maneuver for the most part around the Houston area this morning, please use extra caution on bridges and overpasses, which could still have some icy patches.

If you are traveling away from Houston today, use extreme caution. If you can postpone travel to Austin or Dallas, it’s probably advisable, as road conditions should not improve a lot today in those areas. Travel to San Antonio is probably manageable after this morning, but again, please drive carefully. Monitor road conditions at drivetexas.org.

Rest of today

Clearing is not expecting to be total today, and the most I’d bank on right are perhaps some brightening skies this afternoon. Otherwise, a lot of clouds. That will keep temperatures from getting much above 35 degrees today. It’s just straight up cold.

Tonight

Another round of light to moderate freezing temperatures should be expected tonight.

Continue to keep plants and exterior pipes protected especially and make sure to check on any vulnerable friends, family, and neighbors, as this is a prolonged cold event for our area.

Weekend

The weather this weekend looks just fine. After the chilly start to Saturday, we’ll warm up well into the 40s during the afternoon with sunshine. It will be cold again Saturday night, but this time only the outlying areas will see meaningful freezing temperatures. Expect low to mid-30s in Houston and along the coast and upper-20s to 30 or so away from the city and coast.

Sunday looks delightful as well. We’ll see more sunshine and highs push back above 50° Sunday afternoon!

Early next week

A weak disturbance will likely stay offshore on Monday, but I do expect us to see some clouds and at least a rain shower chance along the immediate coast. Any rain won’t amount to much there, if it happens at all. Once that system passes, it will usher in a bit of a reinforcing shot of cooler, drier weather, along with more sunshine for midweek. Look for highs in the 50s Monday and Tuesday and perhaps cracking 60 again by Wednesday. Lows will be in the upper-30s to near 40 on Monday morning, then probably back in the 30s on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

At this point, I’d expect generally cooler than normal weather to continue through at least Valentine’s Day. Perhaps warmer weather will be in the cards after then. We’ll see.