Matt Lanza

We’re starting the day just a tiny bit less humid than yesterday. It has sure felt like summer the back half of this week. The humidity will remain high, but temperatures are going to gradually step back a bit as rain chances kick back up later in the weekend.

Friday & Saturday

Both today and tomorrow should feature mostly similar weather. Expect a mix of sun and some clouds, with highs in the low to mid-90s and lows in the mid to upper-70s, along with fairly high humidity. Rain chances will be pretty typical for this time of year, with at least a few showers or thunderstorms around. There could be a slight uptick in storm chances late Saturday afternoon or evening as the pattern over our area begins to change to one dominated by a trough in the upper atmosphere. This would be especially true south and east of Houston.

Sunday & Monday

Both Sunday and Monday will probably see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Monday may have slightly more coverage than Sunday, but both days will see considerable chances of rain at virtually any point in the day. Look for highs in the 80s, especially Monday. Lows will be in the 70s.

Rest of next week

The overall weather pattern next week will be a bit odd across the country, with all-time record breaking heat in the Pacific Northwest (seriously, just an incredible and disconcerting weather event up that way, amid a historic drought too; both events carrying the fingerprints of climate change), a hot East Coast, and a cool trough sort of stuck over the Central U.S.

What does this mean for Houston and the surrounding area? Well, it means we shouldn’t see any severe heat next week. Yay, us. High temperatures will actually be held down some because of higher rain chances. Days with more rain will be in the mid to upper 80s. Days with less rain should be in the low-90s. Lows should be in the 70s.

As is often the case, pinning down the exact timing of showers and storms and who will see the most rain is a bit of a meteorological slog; we just don’t know yet how things will precisely unfold next week. But suffice it to say there will at least be chances of rain or storms each day. Right now I’m favoring Tuesday and maybe Friday for the greatest coverage of storms, as the trough tries to reload itself nearby later in the week. But we’ll fine tune that through the weekend.

How much rain should we expect? As of right now, I don’t think this will be a major, widespread excessive rain event. But, a healthy 1 to 2 inches should be expected in most places on average between now and next Friday, with the regular caveats that some places could see more and others a little less. I do think areas south and east of Houston have a higher chance of seeing some of those higher amounts.

At this time, we don’t expect to have to use the Space City Weather Flood Scale, but we’ll be watching closely the next few days to see if that thinking changes.

By the way, it’s a good time to download our weather app, so you can know right away if any changes to the forecast occur this weekend! Tap here for Apple. Tap here for Android.

Tropics

We continue to watch this tropical disturbance (Invest 95L) way out in the deep Atlantic, and also way out of bounds for what is normal this early in the season. The National Hurricane Center has dropped development odds on this one a little since yesterday, sitting at 30 percent as of 1 AM CT.

We’ll get another update not long after I publish this post.

As of right now, we don’t think this has much of a future in front of it as it treks across the Atlantic. Given how out of bounds it is climatologically and a somewhat hostile road west, development, if any, would be very slow and possibly erratic. Probably nothing we will need to ever worry about, but it’s certainly nothing for us to worry about right now.

More on Monday morning or perhaps Sunday, if necessary.

Like we did in 2020, Eric and I are pleased to bring back the “Eye on the Tropics” series to Space City Weather. Each week, normally on Tuesday afternoons, either myself or Eric will write a more detailed post specific to tropical weather in the Atlantic. This allows us to go more in depth on what is happening, what we are watching, and what might be buzzing on social media with respect to tropical storms or hurricanes. We will keep these weekly updates going into August. Usually by mid-August there’s enough happening each day that we’re covering it in our daily posts.

Anyway, we are off to a roaring start this year.

Tropical outlook in a sentence

While we are monitoring the progress of a tropical wave east of the Caribbean islands and some model solutions have brought that or another system into the Gulf as a substantial tropical storm, there is still far too much uncertainty regarding its future to consider it a serious concern at this time.

2021 so far

Before we get to the Atlantic system we’re watching, let’s hit you with some statistics about the season so far. Claudette’s remnants are steaming out to sea in the Atlantic, our third named storm of the young 2021 hurricane season. While Claudette was quite quick to become our third storm, it did not come close to last year’s speed, when Cristobal was named on the 2nd of June. We won’t threaten the fastest to storm #4 either, as Danielle’s record in 2016 is already in the rearview mirror (June 20th). So, at least we aren’t quite pacing 2020 right now. Beyond that, there’s little to deduce based on this season’s activity so far.

Atlantic disturbance

The main thing to talk about this week is a disturbance in the Atlantic basin that the National Hurricane Center is currently giving 30 percent odds of development over the next couple days (Author’s note: Since publication, this has been dialed back to 20 percent odds).

This particular disturbance has probably already caused some folks heartburn as a few social media focused weather pages have irresponsibly shared operational model guidance from Sunday showing a presumed major hurricane hitting Texas in early July. What they don’t tell you, besides failing to offer any context, is that the very same model has subsequently sent a weaker storm to Brownsville, Mobile, the Florida Big Bend, Tampico, New Orleans, and Pensacola in various runs. In fact, I’ve put together a gif of the pinball game the GFS model has been playing lately below.

Again, some of the best advice we can give you, besides not looking at operational model runs to mentally prepare for a storm forecast, is to not waste your time on various Facebook weather pages that don’t identify who the authors are and with whom they are affiliated. But I digress.

So the real question is: Should we watch this system? The answer is yes but with the big caveat that there’s probably a very good chance this develops into nothing. And what some models have latched onto in the Gulf late next week may not even be directly associated with this system.

Looking at satellite imagery of the disturbance in question today, we can see just a disorganized “blob” of thunderstorms approaching the southern Windward Islands.

The NHC going with a low chance of development over the next 5 days seems reasonable based on this. The system is likely to be steered west or west-northwest around the periphery of high pressure in the Atlantic. This should bring it into the Caribbean, where conditions over the next 5 to 7 days won’t exactly be hospitable for development.

So even if this survives the trip, don’t expect it to be particularly healthy looking when it gets to the western Caribbean.

Beyond that, our ensemble guidance is very lukewarm on development and no real model at a place where I’m sitting up straighter in my chair out of concern. There’s some chance this could end up falling apart completely. It may make its way to the Pacific. Or perhaps it does indeed come to the Gulf. We don’t know, but we also don’t see anything notably alarming in model guidance either.

So the advice? Check back in every couple days for the latest, as you normally would during hurricane season. I would not waste energy worrying about this one though. Hurricane season is a marathon. Inevitably we are going to have to watch a storm or two with legitimate interest and concern come later July, August, or September. So pacing yourself if you can is a good plan of attack.

Anything else?

The good news is that beyond this system, there’s nothing else of note in the tropics. With a cold front crossing into our area this week and possibly another one next week, it’s probably best to not write the unexpected off completely. But there’s nothing in any modeling that suggests we need to really focus on anything specific for at least a little while.

Compared to earlier this week, it certainly feels a little more comfortable, with temperatures ranging from the mid or upper 60s well inland to around 80 degrees at the coast.

We will see another day or so of drier air, helping to keep us relatively comfortable, thanks in part to Potential Tropical Cyclone #3 in the Gulf, which will pass to our east into Louisiana. This farther east track leads to a handful of minor forecast changes this weekend.

Today & Saturday

Both today and tomorrow look fairly uneventful in our area, with a mix of sun and clouds. Yes, there could be a stray shower or two that makes into the Houston region, and there could be a portion of an outer band from PTC3 that grazes eastern fringes of our area. But aside from that, it will just be hot and a bit humid. Look for highs in the low to mid-90s (some isolated upper-90s can’t be ruled out) and lows in the 70s. Humidity will likely increase a bit tomorrow, and the morning will feel less comfortable than yesterday or today has felt.

The big weekend change is that rain chances look higher on Sunday than they do Saturday now.

Sunday

We begin a little more onshore flow on Sunday, which means more humidity. Morning lows in the upper-70s seem more likely here. It also means a better chance at isolated to scattered thunderstorms, as a weak disturbance in the upper atmosphere finds a route into Texas and taps into some of that onshore flow. Not everyone will see rain, but there will likely be at least a few showers or storms around Sunday afternoon. High temperatures will be in the mid-90s.

Monday

Right now, Monday looks like a classic June day in Houston with sun, clouds, high humidity, morning lows in the 70s, daytime highs in the low-90s, and a chance of afternoon thunderstorms.

Tuesday & beyond

By Monday night, an actual cold front will be moving across Texas from north to south. We are unlikely to enjoy the cooler, less humid benefits of said front, but we will likely see scattered to perhaps even numerous showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Locally heavy rain is possible here, and a healthy chunk of the area should see at least some rain. Expect a less hot day Tuesday, with some chance highs don’t get above 90 degrees.

By Wednesday and Thursday, rain chances won’t drop to zero, but they will diminish a bit as the front fizzles and high pressure begins to nose into the area. Look for highs back in the 90s and lows in the mid to upper-70s.

PTC 3 update

Potential Tropical Cyclone #3 continues across the Gulf this morning. To be honest, this is about as healthy as it has looked in its life cycle since it became an area to watch.

There’s a significant blowup of thunderstorms near and north/east of the center. This is why forecasters have been banging the drum regarding heavy rain being the main concern. Whatever the case, we assume we will see Tropical Storm Claudette come of this mess and approach the Louisiana coast tonight between Vermilion Bay and New Orleans.

Locally, no impacts are expected, aside from perhaps slightly rougher surf and stronger than normal rip currents. Please use caution if swimming in the Gulf this weekend.

The main impacts in Louisiana and the Southeast will be from heavy rainfall. About 4 to 8 inches of rain should fall in southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and portions of the Florida Panhandle.

Higher amounts will be possible there, but the system may actually move along fast enough now to prevent major problems. But if your travels take you east of Louisiana this weekend, plan accordingly.

We aren’t expecting significant forecast changes this weekend, so look for our next update, as per usual, on Monday morning.

Let’s be honest. It has felt like August lately. I mean, really. For Hobby Airport, the last 3 afternoons have tied for the 5th hottest 3-day stretch of high temperatures this early in the season (trailing several 3-day periods from 1998 and 2011, both notoriously hot Houston summers). For Houston officially it’s the 12th hottest 3-day stretch so early in the season. It’s hot, it’s early, and it’s not going to get much better this week.

Today

Look for temperatures surging into the 90s again today. We hit 98° at Bush and 99° at Hobby on Monday. Maybe we’ll do a degree or so cooler than that today.

Upper air temperatures are a little cooler today, and there should be better coverage of showers in the area. While we don’t expect everyone to see rain today, at least some places will, and there could be a few heavy downpours as well. Regardless, it’s going to be hot, so please take care outdoors. And it’s yet another ozone action day for those with respiratory ailments to take note of.

Also, apparently ERCOT needs our help again this week, so for the good of, like, everyone, please try to cut energy usage where you can.

Wednesday & Thursday

Both days should see sun, clouds, and very slight storm chances. Call it maybe 20 percent coverage. Maybe. The forecast is reminiscent of a 1990s Sears commercial. Another scorcher indeed. Look for solid mid to upper-90s on both days. There will be very little relief. Please make sure you’re taking it easy and checking in on anyone vulnerable in this kind of heat. We went from springtime to August-type weather in what felt like a matter of hours, so it’s tough for your body to adjust to this quickly.

Friday into the weekend

Besides the heat, which is the most pressing weather story today, we do continue to keep a close eye on the tropics. The National Hurricane Center has slowly but steadily been bumping up the odds that Invest 92L in the Bay of Campeche would develop into a tropical depression or storm this week. We sit at 70-percent odds as of 6 A.M. This morning, 92L remains a disorderly mess, so we continue to agree with the idea of very, very slow development.

The good news is that a couple things remain true forecast-wise with 92L today: It is not expected to significantly develop. It is expected to track near us or to our east. It is expected to be fairly lopsided, with most rain staying well east of Houston. On the unfortunate side, it likely means our somewhat excessive early-season heat will continue.

More specifically, expect 92L to gradually lift northward beginning Friday. Given the wind shear over the Gulf, dry air over Texas, and general disorganization of the system initially, development will be slow. Expect a possible center of circulation with something like 80 to 90 percent of the rainfall displaced to its east. Lopsided will be the appropriate word choice, I think. The system should head close to the Gulf Coast somewhere between about Galveston Bay through central Louisiana on Saturday. I would expect a depression or low-end tropical storm at this time and unlikely anything worse. The system is then expected to slide east across Louisiana and toward the Southeast and be out of our hair by the end of the weekend.

So how much rain are we expecting?

For the Houston area and points west, it’s likely to be sparse. Most folks should see maybe just a couple passing showers between now and Sunday. A few places will see slightly heavier showers, especially near the coast. But also, some places will see no rain at all. East of Houston and along the coast, the situation is a little trickier. Between here and Lake Charles, including Beaumont and Port Arthur, most places will probably see 1 to 2 inches of rain or less from passing showers and the rain shield from Invest 92L. Depending on the exact track and organization of 92L, this could change a bit in either direction. But in general, if there are going to be issues with flooding, they would likely be east of roughly Lafayette, LA.

Still, as always, we encourage you to check in once a day to see how this is progressing. And this is a good opportunity to build or refresh your hurricane kits and plans, which will help you all season long.

For those curious, elsewhere in the tropics, Tropical Storm Bill formed off the Carolina coast yesterday and is heading out to sea. The next name on the list is Claudette, which will make some folks around here cringe.

We will continue to watch, but at this point we believe heat to be the bigger story in Houston even into the weekend. Eric is back in the hot seat tomorrow and will have the latest then.