Matt Lanza

Hard freeze on the way tonight, as Houston nears the end of the cold wave

Good evening, everyone. We just want to freshen up the situation a bit for you this evening. Thank you to Eric for holding down the fort as I wrangled power, water, work, and children like so many of our readers the last couple days. I hope this finds you powered.

CenterPoint is still reporting about 15,000 customers without power. This means 99.5% of the Houston area should have power back now. Just over 350,000 customers are still without power across Texas, which is down from 620,000 this morning. Many of those are due to issues stemming from ice in recent days. Per ERCOT, we’re still in a tenuous situation, but it sounds a like things are much more stable than they have been.

So it goes. We encourage you to continue to conserve power so the overall situation continues to improve.

The water situation is still a bit difficult. A boil water notice continues in Houston and many other places.

The city of Houston is directing bottled water distribution through city council member offices, so we’d encourage you to reach out your representative’s office if you need access. As for other communities, please check their websites, social media feeds, etc. Various news media in the city have also put together lists for this.

If you or someone you know need something more urgently or can provide support to those that may have those needs, please utilize the Crowdsource Rescue website. This organization has been working tirelessly and doing great things.

I’d encourage our readers to drop any advice or information about other organizations doing important work through the freeze in the comments section.

On to the weather.

Tonight & tomorrow

It was nice to see the sun in much of the area today, and temperatures did push 40 degrees. Meanwhile, Del Rio saw 10 inches of snow. It’s been a weird, weird week, y’all.

Clear skies and diminishing winds will allow for another night of cold, cold temperatures.

Nighttime lows will be in the 20s for most areas away from the coast. (Weather Bell)

Nighttime lows will be in the 30s for Galveston, around 30 or upper-20s in the Bay Area and Chambers County, mid to upper 20s for the south side of Houston and Brazoria County, mid-20s north of Houston and Fort Bend County, and low-20s, with pockets of upper-teens possible in Montgomery County, Liberty County, and points north. Generally, the farther north and west you go, the colder it will be. Thus, a Hard Freeze Warning is in effect tonight for most of the region. Continue to keep pipes and plants fully protected, and make sure to check on people and bring pets inside.

The good news is that temperatures will recover quickly tomorrow. All areas should be back above freezing by late morning with full sunshine. Look for highs tomorrow to top out in the mid-40s in most places except the far northwest.

There will likely be another freeze tomorrow night, but temperatures will probably be about 3 to 6 degrees warmer than tonight. The finish line is in sight. I’ll have the latest on the rest of the forecast tomorrow morning, and I can almost promise to bore you to tears, which is exactly what I think we’re looking for right now.

Tracking how cold it will get tonight in Houston

We again want to express our best wishes and thoughts for so many of our readers, Houstonians, and Texans who are outright suffering tonight because of the combination of a true “tail event” and who knows what else happened with the power grid (which I sincerely hope is transparently communicated to Texans in the days and weeks ahead). Please, if you’re one of the fortunate ones tonight, check on anyone you know that may not be so fortunate.

That said, we are a weather blog first and foremost and we want to let you know about a couple things: How tonight’s forecast is tracking and an update on Wednesday’s storm.

How cold tonight?

We’ve been asking this question for days when it was apparent that tonight would be the main event for cold. So, we have a lot of models and data and whatnot, but let’s actually compare to data from the most recent comparable event: December 1989. On December 23 and December 24, 1989, Houston (Bush Airport) hit 7° and 11° respectively, close analogs to what we believe tonight’s low temperature will be. One way to check on how things are going is to track the temperature at Bush Airport hour by hour and compare to the hourly observations in those events, as well as the NWS point forecast from just before 8 PM this evening.

Hourly Temperatures at IAH Airport December 1989 vs. February 2021
12/23/1989 12/24/1989 2/15/2021 NWS Point Forecast
6:00 PM 19 24 21 21
7:00 PM 18 19 20 20
8:00 PM 16 16 19 17
9:00 PM 16 15 18 15
10:00 PM 15 14 14
11:00 PM 14 14 13
12:00 AM 13 12 12
1:00 AM 12 11 11
2:00 AM 11 12 11
3:00 AM 10 11 10
4:00 AM 10 11 9
5:00 AM 9 11 8
6:00 AM 7 11 8
7:00 AM 7 12 9
8:00 AM 8 15 12
9:00 AM 10 22 15
10:00 AM 14 27 18

Through 9 PM at least, we are coming up short of both nights from 1989 as well as the current forecast. All that said, it’s very early still, relatively speaking, and temperatures on nights like this can easily drop like a rock under the right conditions. So don’t read too much into what you see here just yet, but I felt this would be an interesting way of looking at things.

If you are unable to sleep or have too much time on your hands tonight (like me, probably) and you want to track our progress through the night, you can check out real-time IAH observations at this link.

(Editor’s note: Replace “IAH” in that link’s URL with whatever airport code you desire, if you’d like to track conditions at that location. Some local ideas? GLS for Galveston, HOU for Hobby, EFD for Ellington Field, LVJ for Pearland, SGR for Sugar Land, TME for the west side of Katy, DWH for Tomball, and CXO for Conroe. You must keep the “K” before those three letters though!)

Wednesday’s Storm

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Wednesday’s storm now.

A Winter Storm Warning has been posted for Wednesday’s storm for the counties shaded in pink, essentially from the City of Houston north and west. (NOAA)

Here’s what I can tell you confidently tonight:

  • The precipitation will fall as either plain rain or freezing rain. Sleet or snow are unlikely in our area.
  • Precipitation should break out around Midnight, give or take a few hours Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Exactly who sees freezing rain vs. plain rain? That’s the forecast challenge right now, as shallow, dense cold air is not always easy to dislodge. If we look at the HRRR model forecast for tomorrow evening at midnight, you can see roughly where it predicts the freezing line to be located.

The HRRR model suggests that temperatures across most of the northern half of the Houston area will be below freezing when rain begins tomorrow night. (Weather Bell)

This is essentially just north of US-59 to Houston and east along or just south of I-10 to Port Arthur. The European model and NAM model are slightly warmer than this, and the GFS model is very similar to the HRRR. All models show temperatures getting above freezing by mid-morning or so Wednesday across the entire region. Expect at least a few hours of freezing rain in Houston, with a longer duration as you go north. Total icing may be as much as a glaze to a tenth of an inch across Harris County, with higher amounts possible as you go north into northern Liberty and Montgomery Counties and even more from Walker County northward. For most of us this shouldn’t be a “power outage” issue, but rather a travel one. Expect travel to become difficult to impossible north of I-10 or US-59 after midnight Tuesday night, but we will likely see improvement from south to north after sunrise.

Things could change, but that’s what it looks like right now. We want you to be aware and be smart about this next storm, so that’s why we have this here. Eric will have more for you in the morning. But right now, just focus on getting through tonight. Our thoughts are with you. Please stay safe.

Record cold worsens tonight, but the sun is helping — a little

First off, our sympathies are with what we assume are large numbers of our readership without power today. We hope you get it restored soon, but the news has not exactly been great today.

But here is some relatively good news to get you started. As of this writing, both Bush and Hobby Airports are up to 22 degrees. With the sun out, we might be able to squeeze another couple degrees out of things today. That sun is also helping to melt some of the snow and ice on area roadways.

While those roads are still difficult to impossible to traverse, we may restore a little road functionality today. However, after sunset and with temps plunging again tonight, any slush that is leftover on area roads (particularly on side streets in Houston and various area subdivisions) will refreeze into solid ice, making travel tonight virtually impossible, possibly even worse than this morning.

One other safety reminder: If area retention ponds or lakes in subdivisions begin to freeze over, while it will look neat, it will be exceptionally dangerous to attempt to walk on. Simply put: Admire from afar, and please make sure children stay away from them.

Our morning low at both Bush and Hobby was 17 degrees, which is the coldest we’ve registered since the December 1989 cold blast. And we may (probably) dip below that before midnight.

We’re also seeing a true rarity in Southeast Texas: Lake effect flurries and clouds.

Lake effect clouds, flurries, and widespread snowpack dominate the satellite picture over Texas today, a true rarity. (Weathernerds.org)

Two distinct plumes are coming off Lake Livingston and Lake Sam Rayburn this afternoon and even Lake Conroe if you squint. You can also see a plume of “bay effect” clouds coming out of Galveston Bay and into the Gulf. This is why even with the sun out, it may have felt like you were living in a snow globe this morning.

Tonight

So how cold will it get tonight? Clear skies, diminishing winds, and a fresh layer of snow is a recipe for what we call “ideal radiational cooling.” Reliable model guidance tonight ranges from 10 to 17 degrees at IAH/Bush, and in an ideal radiational cooling situation like this, typically you’d subtract a couple more off that.

Record and perhaps all-time record challenging cold is likely tonight. (Weather Bell)

Add in that the models have generally been underdoing the intensity of the cold, and you have a forecast map like the one above from the National Weather Service. There may be some chance that we fall short of these numbers, but I would not be betting on that, and most of the area should expect lows of 5 to 15 degrees, coldest northwest, warmest southeast. Houston’s all-time record of 5° from 1930 is probably safe, but not by much and with little room for error. Either way, tonight promises to be a once in a generation type cold that will unfortunately cause a lot of damage to infrastructure, pipes, etc. We wish our readers the best.

Tuesday and beyond

Not much has changed in terms of what to expect the next couple days. More sunshine tomorrow should help further melt snow and ice on roads and most areas south of I-10 should get above freezing. North of I-10 is another matter, which plays into Wednesday’s outcome. We will continue to be honest that there is still a lot of uncertainty as to how much cold air will remain locked in over the area. Gulf air and onshore flow doesn’t typically have to compete with a snowpack here, so it creates a difficult forecast. What I think we can say for Houston: Most of the metro area should eventually see plain rain on Wednesday, with temperatures above freezing. Based on modeling, we are growing concerned about a very serious ice storm north of about Conroe up to just south of Dallas, but details will likely still be elusive until tomorrow.

With Eric still powerless, I’ll have one final brief update for you once more this around 8:30 or 9 PM. Stay safe, and try to stay warm everyone.

Major winter storm underway in the Houston area this afternoon

Good afternoon everyone. I’ve been watching the models and observations all day, and we look to continue walking a fine line between ice, an even mix of ice, sleet, and snow, and a bigger snowstorm in the Houston area. Not a whole lot has changed from Eric’s detailed morning post, but let’s freshen up the forecast a bit based on what we’re seeing right now.

Now

As of 4PM, here is a map of where temperatures are currently below freezing (locations above freezing not shown).

Below freezing temperatures are creeping south and east into the Houston area. Icing will commence soon on many area roadways. (NOAA)

So, if we roughly overlay that freezing line on radar, you can see where the risk of ice is at the moment I am writing this.

Areas north of I-10 and west of US-59 are at risk for icing as of 4 PM Sunday. This will worsen over the next few hours. (RadarScope)

Basically anywhere along and west of US-59 and north of I-10 is at risk for icing on roadways as of now and worsening over the next 2-3 hours.

Through Midnight

Over the next few hours, watch for rain, freezing rain, and freezing drizzle to overspread most of the region. Temps will continue to glacially drop off slowly, eventually putting everywhere but probably the immediate coast below 32° by midnight. Ice accumulation should not be significant in terms of weighing down trees and power lines this evening, but you’ll begin to notice a glaze on most outdoor surfaces, and travel will become hazardous to impossible across the entire region.

Midnight to 7 AM Monday

Two things will happen after midnight: Colder air will speed up its arrival in the area and the precipitation should become more organized and heavier. Our forecast confidence begins to drop off here, but theoretically, this should mean that freezing rain will transition more to sleet and eventually snow. That transition will take place from northwest to southeast and where the precipitation falls heaviest.

The HRRR model forecast of precipitation at 4 AM shows freezing rain and sleet transitioning to sleet and snow across the region. This is just one of several possibilities for how tonight may unfold. (Weather Bell)

This is when we will probably start seeing and hearing reports of heavy sleet and even heavy snow in parts of the area. I’ll be honest, as a Northeast native, what is being depicted on some of the models is the potential for bonafide, real deal heavy snow and/or sleet, particularly north and west of Houston (think far NW Harris County, Montgomery County, College Station, Huntsville), but perhaps in the city or even some places east of the city too. We’re talking potential of 1-2″ per hour snow rates if we flip over. If the warm layer a couple thousand feet up holds, then heavy sleet will the story, and we’ll see 1 to 2 inches total of “cement” on roads and surfaces.

Quick note and reminder: If we end up with sleet or sleet/snow accumulation and you have to shovel or clear surfaces, please take it slow and take it easy. There is a known link between shoveling snow/sleet and heart attack risks, to the point where hospitals up north often staff up for that very reason ahead of storms.

7 AM to Noon Monday

Precipitation should begin to wind down from west to east before Noon on Monday. Most places will end as a period of snow or flurries.

When all is said and done, expect 1-3″ of snow, more northwest, less southeast. Expect a tenth to a quarter inch of ice, more southeast, less northwest. Higher amounts are possible in either case.

Monday afternoon

Despite the precip ending, conditions won’t improve much. It’ll remain quite cold and any chance of sunshine will probably hold off til late day or Tuesday. Eric will update you on that chance in the morning. Either way, we won’t be getting above freezing on Monday, so whatever falls is going to stay in place through the day and into Monday night.

Monday night/Tuesday morning.

No big changes to the forecast for Monday night and Tuesday morning. It will be cold, likely damaging cold. Please make sure you’ve finalized all preps for pipes and plants by now, and look out for pets and neighbors.

Tuesday morning low temperatures are mostly unchanged from prior forecasts and still likely to challenge records and perhaps some all-time records as well. (NOAA via Weather Bell)

There’s still a tad bit of uncertainty on exactly how cold we get, contingent on how many clouds remain, how much snow falls vs. sleet/ice, and how windy it is. But either way, a damaging, destructive, probably historic freeze is on the way Tuesday morning.

Tuesday afternoon and beyond

Look for slowly rising temperatures Tuesday, probably close to freezing from I-10 south and just shy of it north of there. We should have sunshine, and that will allow for some melting to occur, but there’s a chance most roads remain sloppy to impassable most of Tuesday too.

And then beyond Tuesday, I don’t want to speculate too much still, but it does look like Wednesday’s storm will be a mess for northern fringes of the area. The potential exists for a serious ice storm north of Houston (probably plain rain in most of the Houston metro itself). Coastal locations may even make a run at 50+ degrees on Wednesday. Between storm track issues and potential snowpack issues (keeping temperatures cold), there is a lot we don’t know about Wednesday. Look for an update by about 5:30 in the morning from Eric.