Matt Lanza

Houston’s stretch of really dreary January weather ends soon

It’s been a gloomy few days here in the Houston area, between overcast skies or fog or showers or drizzle. The bad news is that it continues somewhat today, but the good news is that the end is coming for tomorrow. It won’t be a brilliant, totally sunny week, but it will be a lot nicer than what we’ve had recently.

Today

We have the clouds this morning, but there is definitely less fog around than in some other recent days. Tough to find any location, even at the coast, with less than 5 miles of visibility this morning.

Visibility observations this morning are basically fog-free everywhere. (NOAA)

So that’s a good start. There are some showers around this morning already, none of which are particularly heavy, but expect sort of a dreary start to the day, with low clouds and light rain, heavy drizzle, mist, or a shower. A narrow band of slightly heavier showers may try to roll in with the cold front itself, late this morning northwest of Houston and around midday in Houston itself. The front should get to the coast by late afternoon.

You’ll know when the front passes by a wind shift and about a 5 to 10 degree temperature drop. We’ll reach the low-70s north and west of Houston before the front and the mid to upper-70s south and east of Houston. So the change behind today’s won’t be too dramatic initially.

Much cooler morning low temperatures in the upper-40s to low or mid-50s are expected overnight. (Weather Bell)

Where you’ll really notice the change will be tonight, as temperatures drop into the upper-40s to mid-50s for low temperatures by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday

Tomorrow won’t be perfectly sunny, but it will surely be a bit nicer than it has been. Look for a mix of sun and high clouds tomorrow, with high temperatures pushing back close to 70 degrees or a touch warmer.

Wednesday

A second cold front, this one a bit stronger, will push across the region on Wednesday morning. It will probably be a dry front, however. Look for a breezy day, with gusts of 15 to 20 mph out of the north. It will be sunny, but there will be a good deal of high cloud cover likely around at times to dim the sun. This should keep us in the mid to upper-60s for highs, after starting the day in the low to mid-50s.

Thursday & Friday

Expect more high clouds on Thursday, along with some sunshine. Friday may see the high clouds disappear, and it will likely start off sunny before some lower clouds roll in later in the day as onshore flow returns. Low temperatures for Thursday and Friday morning will likely average in the low 40s, though it will probably be in the upper-30s north and maybe upper-40s southeast of the city along the coast. For the daytime, expect cool upper-50s to low-60s on Thursday, followed up by mid-60s on Friday.

Weekend

It’s a bit early to say too much about this coming weekend, but it appears somewhat similar to this past weekend, with a good deal of low clouds, perhaps some patchy fog, and at least some shower chances, albeit low ones right now. We may see a cold front swing through the area by Sunday morning or afternoon, however, which could clear us out a bit and yield a nicer Sunday. Temperatures will be warm, with 70s for highs and 50s or 60s for lows. We should be back in the 40s on Monday morning behind the front, however.

Gusty winds around the region today before a pleasant weekend

Good morning, and happy Friday. It’s a cool start to the day today, as we’re in the wake of a cold front that moved through last evening. We’ll have a round of gusty winds today before things settle down for the weekend.

Today & tonight

Today is starting off calm enough with clear skies, cool temperatures, and generally light winds. The clear skies and generally cool temperatures will stay with us today, with highs in the 50s. But the wind? That will begin to howl in just a few hours. We expect wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph area wide today, with some higher gusts possible in northern stretches of the region.

Wind gusts could exceed 30 to 35 mph in a few spots north of Houston later today. (NWS Houston)

A wind advisory is posted for late morning and early to mid-afternoon. With high winds and low humidity, it’s a higher than usual brush/grass fire danger day today. Relative humidity could drop below 20 percent at times, a very dry day.

Winds will quickly settle down around and just after sunset, and they should be back to relatively calm conditions tonight, with lows near freezing north and west of Houston.

Lighter winds and clear skies may allow temperatures to drop to near freezing north and west of Houston tonight, with mostly 30s elsewhere. (NOAA forecast via Weather Bell)

Look for 30s elsewhere, with near 40 at the coast, a chilly night.

Saturday through Monday

After today, fair, quiet weather will be the story through Monday. Look for sunny conditions with just a few clouds on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will slowly warm through the period, topping off in the upper-50s on Saturday, low-60s on Sunday, and mid-60s on Monday. Morning lows will stay cool, with 30s to near 40° on Sunday morning and mostly 40s on Monday morning. Winds will stay light but could pick up a bit on Monday afternoon as onshore flow redevelops.

Tuesday and beyond

A pretty messy weather pattern is expected Tuesday through Thursday or even Friday before a cold front finally clears everything out. Onshore flow will transport really humid air back into the region Tuesday and Wednesday, likely leading to scattered showers. The problem in this period is that details around the forecast continue to fluctuate both in terms of how much rain we see and where it falls. We know that the potential will exist for heavy rain and at least some thunderstorms. But we don’t know if it’s more a story for our area, farther north toward Shreveport, LA, or for all of eastern Texas and western Louisiana. We will have a full update on this for you Sunday or (more likely) Monday.

Lovely weather for Houston to close out the week

Good morning! Matt here, in for Eric who is getting in a light jog this morning.

Good luck to him, as he runs the virtual Houston Marathon! Best of luck to all our readers that will be participating as well (and congratulations to those that have already wrapped it up). We’ve got some very nice weather yet to come.

Today and tonight

We should see ample sunshine through the day today, with just a little patchy fog in spots dissipating this morning. The cold front mentioned above will push through the area probably around late afternoon or early evening. I don’t think you’re going to notice much more than a wind shift and some clouds as it passes. Winds may get a little gusty in the wake of the front. Look for highs today in the 60s, possibly well into the 60s in spots.

Tonight sees clear skies and breezy conditions with a northerly wind gusting up to 20-25 mph at the coast.

Tomorrow morning will be another chilly one with 30s and 40s area-wide. (NOAA via Weather Bell)

Temperatures will again be chilly, with lows near 40 degrees or in the 30s north and west of Houston to mid-40s in the city and near the coast.

Friday through Sunday

Basically, the entire weekend looks sunny right now. There could be some lingering gusty winds on Friday, especially near the coast and Galveston Bay and a few high clouds on Sunday, but other than that, it will be blue and beautiful. Highs will range from the upper-50s to low-60s with lows in the 30s and 40s. About as nice as you could ask for in winter in Houston.

Monday and Tuesday

We would expect Monday to be an extension of the weekend with a good deal of sunshine. Temperature should increase somewhat, however, with highs in the mid-60s after morning lows in the 40s. Tuesday will see clouds begin to increase as we begin to get stronger onshore flow and warmer temperatures. Look for fog, clouds, haze, or showers and highs perhaps pushing 70 degrees after a morning in the 50s.

Midweek next week

Tuesday’s onshore flow and increasing clouds heralds our next cold front. Look for that to cross around Thursday, give or take a day. Ahead of the front: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some perhaps heavy.

Rainfall expected through Thursday morning next week is 1 to 2 inches area-wide, with perhaps a little more after the period. (NOAA via Weather Bell)

The early indications point to about an inch or two of total rain from the showers and storms that will come ahead of and with Thursday’s front. But there’s a good deal of uncertainty on specifics in this timeframe, so watch for some changes as we get closer.

 

Sunday snow or sleet likely well north of Houston, but much uncertainty remains

Good Saturday afternoon. With a bonafide winter storm on the way, we’ll keep you posted on things this weekend. Most of the morning model data is in, and we can discuss some of what is shown and lay out some thoughts for what might actually happen tomorrow.

First, the housekeeping: A Winter Storm Watch (as of 2 PM CT Saturday, still a watch) is posted to the north and northwest of Houston for the Brazos Valley, Walker, Trinity, and Houston Counties. We expect this to be upgraded to a warning before this evening, and it’s possible an advisory or watch is expanded south also.

Winter Storm Watches are in effect for Sunday northwest of Houston. These will be upgraded to warnings later today. (NOAA)

On satellite, the two features we are most interested in stand out nicely this afternoon. We’re looking at the water vapor channel on satellite, which shows us where dry air and moisture are located. Over the Four Corners region, you can see a swirl in the clouds representing low pressure about 20,000 feet up, our upper level storm. Over northern Mexico, you see moisture gathering, which is where low pressure at the surface will begin to develop. The system in Mexico will help deliver moisture and precipitation. The upper low will help deliver cold air behind a front. The combination is why we’re talking about winter weather.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows the upper level storm over Arizona and the surface storm developing over Mexico that will combine to bring snow and sleet to parts of the region tomorrow. (College of DuPage)

We still believe rain will develop tomorrow morning across the entire region. Everyone should begin as rain, as cold enough air for anything else won’t arrive til later. Look for snow and sleet to begin mixing in with the rain well northwest of the city tomorrow by early afternoon. Think: College Station, Madisonville, Crockett. The rain/snow or sleet line will continue to nudge south and east tomorrow afternoon and evening, arriving in places like Brenham, Navasota, and Huntsville by late afternoon. From there, how much farther southeast could the rain/snow line get? Ultimately it will depend on the exact track of the storm, but I expect it will get close to places like The Woodlands, Conroe, Hempstead, or Cleveland before all is said and done.

In addition to that, as discussed earlier this week, we could be talking about dynamic cooling (where the rain falls so hard, it pulls down enough cold air to flip over to snow or sleet for a time) driven snow or sleet virtually anywhere north of I-10 late tomorrow afternoon or evening. It wouldn’t accumulate much, if at all, but if you see snowflakes falling or hear sleet pinging, don’t be shocked.

So the question becomes: How much snow for places north of Houston? For The Woodlands or Conroe, right now we don’t expect much. Maybe a slushy coating if things break right (or wrong depending on your viewpoint). However, as you go north of there toward Huntsville west toward College Station or east toward Lufkin, it gets dicey. Here’s the current forecast from the National Weather Service as of early afternoon Saturday:

Snow forecast as of early Saturday afternoon for southeast Texas. (NOAA)You can see about 1 to 2 inches for Huntsville, less as you go south, more as you go north. It is notable that there are some weather models that show considerably higher snowfall amounts up that way, up to 4 to 6 inches of snow or even more in spots.

There are two main problems in determining how much snow will fall. One is the storm track, discussed a bit above. The second is something I made a Twitter thread about earlier today: Sleet. Sleet can destroy a snow forecast. I’ve been burned many times by that. The more the precipitation that is frozen falls as sleet, the less snow accumulation there will be.

And right now, the temperature profiles north of the Houston region are a mess, with a very, very fine line between a cold rain, sleet, or snow. That could mean the difference between someone seeing a coating or 1 inch or someone seeing closer to 5 inches of snow.

That’s a big, big deal, and it’s very difficult to pin down. So forecasting how much snow falls will be challenging, but who sees the snow? That should be a little more straightforward.

If you live in the city of Houston, keep hope alive (if you want snow), but the odds are going to be quite low. If we do see snow in the city, I would target the 9 PM Sunday to 2 AM Monday window to catch a fleeting glimpse.

If you want to see legitimate snow and feel comfortable traveling: Huntsville, Crockett, or College Station are as good a bet as any right now, though not quite a full guarantee. Just keep this in mind if you do plan to “snow chase” tomorrow: You will have to come back at night, with temperatures getting colder. While it should be fine in Harris County and most surrounding counties, there may be difficult, slippery travel up north. So just make sure you exercise wise judgment, are prepared in case it gets bad, and please be safe.

Eric will have more for you tomorrow!