Matt Lanza

What a week it has been. The last several days have been just fantastic as we prepare for the days of heat and humidity in summer. Onshore winds have returned however, and another drawn out period of unsettled weather begins today. For those yearning for rainfall, especially south and southwest of Houston, this looks to be another potentially frustrating event. We break it all down below.

Today & tonight

Clouds have become a little more widespread overnight and this morning, and today should see more clouds than sun for most areas. Look for showers to develop through the morning and into this afternoon as a cold front begins to approach from the north and west.

Showers should not be particularly heavy or significant, but a thunderstorm can’t be ruled out. There’s a good chance many of us may not see much of anything today, but have an umbrella at the ready if you’ll be out later today.

The front itself should wait to get through the Houston area until this evening. Shower chances should generally drop off tonight, and it will just be mostly cloudy with perhaps a little drizzle or mist in spots. It will be interesting to see what temperatures do behind the front. Like we saw last weekend, it got rather cool, so although I would expect us to only drop into the low-60s in Houston, we could see upper-50s in spots to the north overnight. Coastal areas may not get much below the upper-60s, as the front stalls nearby or just offshore.

Saturday

By later Saturday morning, our cold front should begin creeping back north as a warm front. With a disturbance passing by simultaneously, we should see showers and storms begin to break out across parts of the area. Initially the focus should be west of Houston, but it may move into the Houston area as the afternoon goes on. As has been the case recently, the heaviest rain chance may be to the north of Houston.

The last several storms tracking across the region have produced seriously mixed results for our area. In fact, if you just look at Highway 59/I-69, you can get two very different narratives on either side of the highway. West or north of 59 has been rainfall rich, with 150 to 200% of normal rain over the last month. That steadily drops to near 25% of normal at the coast on the other side of the highway. There’s nothing special about Highway 59, but it conveniently works as a boundary here.

The last few severe weather risks have also been fairly underwhelming in our area too, with a few exceptions. It’s important to understand that with these types of storm systems in our area, there a lot of things that have to come together to generate storms. This one looks to be no different. And yet again, the best chance for more rain will be to our north and west.

So look for scattered showers, thunderstorms, and downpours on Saturday. Many of you won’t see anything on Saturday, but some folks may see a shot of storms. Severe weather risk is low but not zero. If we do get storms going, look for strong winds or some hail to be the primary risks.

As far as temperatures go, look for us to warm into the 70s on Saturday afternoon.

See full post

We just wanted to give a quick update today on the concerns regarding severe weather. We noted yesterday that there was still some uncertainty in details for today. The majority of the area experienced a really, really nice morning. As we march through the afternoon hours, showers or sprinkles are likely to begin developing. Per the National Weather Service and after looking at some near-term model data myself, it’s clear that the Houston area is in a “capped” environment this afternoon. We talk about the cap often, and basically that’s what helps Houston frequently avoid some of the more ballistic severe weather events that occur off to our north and west. So, assuming that the cap is likely to hold through the afternoon, we shouldn’t see much more than a few showers.

The exception to this could be north of I-10, farther from the Gulf and more likely to see the cap erode enough to allow for some heavier showers or storms late this afternoon or evening.

So, with all that in mind, you can see the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook here. The risk for severe weather generally will go up as you go north and west of the Houston metro area. The highest risk through this evening is probably along or northwest of a line between Crockett, College Station, and La Grange. That’s not to say we couldn’t see severe storms pop before midnight farther south and east; it just doesn’t seem super likely right now. So, keep tuned into the weather, but we aren’t real worried right now.

Overnight

Things do change a bit overnight. We enter into a slightly better and more supportive environment for thunderstorms to develop. But even then, I am still seeing some evidence of “capping” in the models over Houston. I think the general rule of thumb will be that we’ll see scattered showers and storms overnight. Most should be under control and many of us won’t see much of anything. As you go north and west of Houston, the chance that one or two of those storms could become severe increases. I would really watch the area west of San Antonio toward Del Rio closely tonight for potential of some pretty significant storms capable of producing large hail or tornadoes during the late evening and early overnight hours.

Those storms west of San Antonio are likely to congeal into a line of storms and move east along and north of I-10 overnight, arriving in the Houston area sometime around or after sunrise tomorrow morning. The main concern as those pass would be strong, gusty winds, but the chance of an embedded tornado is not zero. Again, the rule will be that the farther north you go, the more likely you see stronger storms. Some areas south of Houston may not even see much of anything overnight and Sunday morning. But the time we should be paying closest attention is probably from 5 or 6 AM through 9 AM or so.

Easter Sunday

Once the showers pass off to our east on Sunday morning, we should see rapid clearing of skies by midday. Winds are going to begin to crank out of the west at 15 to 20 mph, with higher gusts, especially over the bays and near the coast. Temperatures will surge into the middle or upper-80s as humidity plummets. I wouldn’t rule out 90° tomorrow either for some folks. A windy, hot Easter afternoon.

The cold air arrives Sunday night, and by Monday morning we’ll be back in the 50s, struggling to get to 70 degrees Monday afternoon. More on that Monday.

Southeast severe weather

A quick PSA from us: While we aren’t expecting a lot of significant severe weather in our area tomorrow morning, there is a decent chance that this will be a very serious severe weather outbreak to our east. From northern Louisiana through much of Mississippi and Alabama into Georgia, and possibly Tennessee and the Carolinas, the potential exists for a significant tornado or severe weather outbreak tomorrow and tomorrow night into Monday morning.

A moderate risk (4 out of 5) is in place for tomorrow’s activity across Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. This could be upgraded to a high risk tomorrow if confidence increases in a potential tornado outbreak. If you have friends or relatives living east of here in any highlighted yellow, orange, or red area on the map above, please make sure they’re following the weather situation in their local area.

Last night was quite active in parts of the area. In other parts of the area? Yeah, it felt like a flop.

Rain totals were quite erratic. Southern areas saw low amounts. Northern areas saw variable amounts. A gage just east of IAH Airport between Will Clayton Parkway and the Beltway along Garners Bayou nearly received 3″ of rain. But that was very much the exception yesterday. Rain totals elsewhere were less than a quarter inch in many places like Tomball, Cypress, Katy, and Sugar Land. The Woodlands saw a pretty good storm, but even there, it moved fast enough that rain totals were generally under an inch.

Severe weather was not really an issue in the Houston area either. Most reports yesterday came from the Brazos Valley and back west toward Austin and even those were few.

Anyway, with that in the rear-view mirror, we can start talking about the next round.

Today

First off, today looks quiet. We will have clouds for the bulk of the day, but it will feel refreshing after yesterday’s record heat (91° at Hobby was a new record, 91° at Bush fell a degree short). Look for highs mostly in the 70s today. It will also be a good bit breezy at times with winds out of the east or northeast around 15 mph with higher gusts, especially over the bays and Gulf.

Saturday through Sunday morning

For Saturday, morning, lows will be in the low-60s or even upper-50s, but temperatures will rebound into the middle 70s through the day. An approaching warm front will send humidity up through the day as well.

The biggest question on Saturday revolves around rain and thunderstorms. Let’s work through this in order of likely outcomes. Scattered showers are likely Saturday morning and afternoon. Many of us may not see rain, but some of us will. Models differ in opinion on where rain will arrive, with a couple suggesting coastal areas and Houston will see a good deal of showers tomorrow morning. Others keep those areas mainly dry and focus development off to the north and west of Houston. We will call it scattered showers and go from there. A thunderstorm is also a good possibility too. For the most part, we do not expect significant severe weather Saturday morning or afternoon in Houston.

Severe weather on Saturday afternoon will probably begin in Hill Country or west of San Antonio toward Del Rio and the Rio Grande Valley.

Heading into Saturday night, with a warm front in the neighborhood and ample moisture in place with a strong disturbance approaching, that’s typically a recipe for thunderstorms to develop. There are still a lot of questions as to exactly how Saturday night is going to play out. There should be strong to severe thunderstorms in Central Texas moving into East Texas, especially north of I-10. We could see additional development of storms ahead of that off the Gulf. At this time, that looks more concerning east of the Houston area, more into Louisiana. But with a good bit of uncertainty still in play and a Sunday severe weather outlook that is still pretty aggressive nearby, I don’t want to rule anything out at this point.

Bottom line on Saturday night/Sunday early morning: Expect showers and potential for some thunderstorms. Some severe weather is possible, but odds may be highest north and east of Downtown Houston. Eric or myself will keep you posted this weekend if things get more serious.

There will be a couple boundaries pushing through Houston on Sunday. The boundary with storms should push out, ending the rain by 10-11 AM or so. The first cold front will follow around 12-2 PM or so. That will flip winds out of the west, and they should increase as well back to the 15 to 20 mph range, with higher gusts.

See full post

Rainfall has been a challenge at times since late 2019 across the area. We are finally beginning to transition into true spring here, and April showers will bring most of us a decent helping of rain over the next few days.

I’m going to do this post a little different than we usually do today, partly to make it easier to explain what we’re watching and when.

Quick synopsis

Today: Showers and thunderstorms develop north and west of Houston. Severe weather is possible west of our area, with lower chances as you get closer to the Houston Metro.

Tonight: Showers and storms drop south and east into the Houston area this evening. Some storms could be strong to severe, especially west of Katy or Cypress. Heavy rain is possible, mainly early.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms possible at any time through the day, possibly most concentrated near sunrise and again in late afternoon. Heavy rain possible, especially south of Houston. Severe weather is not likely. Cooler.

Saturday night: Showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly in the evening hours, diminishing overnight.

Sunday: Showers possible, but likely a much calmer day.

Severe weather

Now, we’ll walk you through the various concerns of this event. Let’s start with the severe weather aspect, because that seems to be what we get the most questions about. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted areas mainly northwest of Houston today for the risk of severe storms.

The highest risks today will likely be 1.) hail and 2.) wind. Storms will be capable of some big hail, especially as you go west of Houston and closer to San Antonio and south of there toward Laredo. Strong wind gusts will be possible if the storms can organize more into “lines” at some point, and I expect that would be the primary thing to watch for the west side of Houston. We could see a line of storms approach by evening, which would be capable of those strong winds. As severe weather events in Houston go, this one doesn’t look especially serious, but as always, it’s something we will monitor.

Heavy rainfall/flash flooding

It is no secret that it has been dry in parts of our area in recent months. This is especially true as you go south and west of Houston. While Houston has seen roughly 50 to 75 percent of normal rainfall in 2020, places like Victoria and Corpus Christi have seen even less, more like 25 to 50 percent of normal. Thankfully, that provides us a little padding to absorb some of the initial heavy rains from this event. In general, heavy rainfall is likely in spots this evening, especially north of I-10 and west of I-45 initially. That could transition a bit south and east of there as the evening goes on, but storms would likely begin to weaken and rainfall rates should slow a bit. We should be able to handle today and tonight’s first wave with nothing worse than some minor street flooding or ponding on roadways.

Overall, rains should slow overnight and possibly fizzle out as they get closer to the coast.

Saturday’s rain will focus farther south than what we see today. The front will likely be through Houston (more on that below), which means showery weather should dominate much of the day. Closer to the front and coast, we should see thunderstorms try to develop, and that’s where heavier rain would be most likely late Saturday afternoon and evening.

Total rainfall when all is said and done Sunday morning should be on the order of 0.5 to 1.5 inches on average, with higher amounts, closer to 2 or 3 inches in spots, especially north and west of Houston or closer to Galveston and Matagorda. A quick note on Galveston: With elevated tides expected this weekend, you might notice slower drainage than usual. Most folks will be staying at home anyway, but if you do have to venture out late tomorrow, just keep that in mind.

See full post