Just a quick update on Wednesday afternoon to say that our forecast from this morning holds—effects from Tropical Storm Cindy are unlikely to be too significant for the greater Houston area. Mostly, we can expect some heavy rainfall. The only thing that could change this is if the storm follows a westerly track into the Galveston area, but at present that seems to be a low probability.
We’re starting to see some convection firing up on the west and northwest side of Cindy’s center today, but the storm is running out of time to become a real rainmaker for the Houston region as it will near the coast tonight, and move inland by Thursday morning. The water vapor image below shows some of the convection developing out in front of Cindy as the storm moves northwest toward the Texas-Louisiana border.
Most of the model guidance suggests the Houston region will likely see 1 to 3 inches of rain from Cindy later today, tonight, and on Thursday. Generally, rain chances will be greater to the east of Interstate 45. Given the tropical nature of this system, we can’t rule out some isolated bullseyes of 6 inches, but I think we can confidently say this is likely not going to be a major flooding event for the area.
Tides and winds
At present waves are coming up onto Bolivar Peninsula, and seas are rough, but road conditions along the coast are generally manageable. Rip currents are a concern as well. It looks like high tides will reach a maximum of about 4 feet above normal.
In regard to winds, expect some gusts tonight in the upper 20s or low 30s in the city, and possibly in the low 40s along the coast. Sustained winds will be lower.
We’ll keep you posted as conditions change.