Despite the cooler air this morning, Fall Day remains a ways away

Good morning. Much of the Houston region has fallen into the 60s this morning, and it feels quite pleasant outside. Unfortunately this early preview of fall won’t last, and we’re going to be headed back to warmer days and more humid nights for awhile.

That’s not to say our weather will be exceptionally hot. It won’t. But increasingly, I don’t think our first reasonably strong fall front is coming this month. That’s happened plenty of times before—the average date of Houston’s first significant front is around the last week of September. But it’s still disappointing that Fall Day remains a ways away.

Temperatures dropped into the 60s for much of the area just before sunrise on Tuesday. (Weather Bell)


Today’s weather isn’t bad though, by any stretch. After our pleasing start, highs today will climb to around 90 degrees with sunny skies. Winds will shift to become southeasterly, and this will start to bring a more pronounced and humid flow into the region, although this afternoon should still feel somewhat drier than normal. We should still be able to squeeze out one more night in the low- to mid-70s before we warm back up completely.


As high pressure begins to strengthen some, we’ll see more humidity and high temperatures will nudge up into the low-90s. Like on Tuesday, rain chances will be near zero. Overnight lows are likely to only drop into the mid- to upper-70s, unfortunately.

Thursday and Friday

We will see mostly sunny skies and highs in the low- to mid-90s to end the work week. With the moister atmosphere Houston should start to see a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day, perhaps on the order of 20 percent. Any storms that do develop should pass rather quickly. Lows will remain muggy, in the mid- to upper-70s.

September is doing September things in Houston. (Weather Bell)

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see continued warm and muggy weather, with Sunday likely the warmest day as highs reach the mid-90s. It looks like a weak (again, a very weak one) front will push toward the area this weekend on Sunday. This could drive some rain showers on Sunday or Sunday evening, and then bring some slightly cooler and drier nights with it. I wouldn’t expect anything too robust, but it should bring daytime and nighttime temperatures down a bit. Highs for the most part look to be in the low 90s for much of next week.

A couple of programming notes

I’ve been working on a post summarizing our summer weather and putting it into historical context. Look for that to publish later this week. Also, we’re really getting near the end of the Texas hurricane season, but I’m not quite ready to make that call yet. Soon, probably.

16 thoughts on “Despite the cooler air this morning, Fall Day remains a ways away”

  1. It’s a beautiful morning and I’m thankful for it. One day at a time. After 12 years in Houston, I don’t expect Fall until November – just managing expectations!

      • Only 2 tropical storms were directly affected by high pressure this summer. Other factors played role for the rest of storms so far

  2. On the summary report. I was curious how much of the country the high pressure covered and what were some of their temperatures.

  3. Let me put my foot in my mouth and go ahead and stick a fork in this year’s Hurricane Season for us. This season’s steering patterns has just not been inviting for western gulf storms save for Harold which was a fluke. The death ridge was a force field for any weather maker to attempt to visit our area. The lack of a strong Atlantic ridge played a role. At least it was useful in that regard.

    Other seasons like 2020 for example, it was a near miracle that we didn’t get blown to smithereens although Laura gave us some dirty looks before menacing our Louisiana kinfolk.

    Of course we will yield to the experts Matt n Eric for the real scoop.

    Anyways, bring on them 60 degree days under wispy cirrus clouds and put our ac units to bed!!!!!

  4. Thanks for all your updates , keeping us well informed and not overly despondent about this rough summer/early fall.
    Cheers to a bit of rain in October.

  5. The dry weather has been great, I am so happy not to hear the clatter of lawnmowers all the time, and I have been past fall for a few weeks, now I am in the holiday season.

  6. For sanity’s sake, I’m making a prediction that September 28 will be the first good cool front. Not cold front, cool front. It has to happen, my a/c needs to actually shut off for once this summer.

  7. I’m sure we’ll see mostly low to mid 90s through at least the third week of October, I’ve lost all hope of getting more than a brief tease of cooler weather for more than a day or two until late November at earliest, and even then that feels overly optimistic.

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