Today is August 29. There are just three days left in the month that I consider to be the worst of the year in Houston, weatherwise. August is consistently the hottest, most humid, and often the month with the worst drought conditions of the year in our region. That has unquestionably been the case this month, with record heat and, for most of the area, very little rainfall. And now it’s almost over. Good riddance.
Matt and I have a friendly debate about whether August or September is the worst month in Houston. His point is that, in the rest of the country, fall starts settling in in September, whereas in Houston we often see some of the warmest weeks of the year in September. While I understand Matt’s point, he is entirely wrong. At least in September we have the hope of seeing a bonafide cold front. Typically we see our first real front during the third or fourth week of the month. Hope may be a dangerous thing, but at least I have it in September.
A cold front, by the way, is moving through the region today. Since it is August, however, this is an August front. Which is to say we’re going to see some drier air and (very) slightly cooler weather. This is not unwelcome, but it is not a front that will make you say, “ahhhh” either. Looking into the medium-term, there is no sign of a stronger front in the next 10 to 14 days, but rest assured it is coming. Probably within the next few weeks. We’re getting there, friends.
Tuesday
Thanks to the aforementioned front, high temperatures today will only top out in the mid- to upper-90s. With dew points dropping into the 60s, or even 50s further inland, this air will feel somewhat comfortable this afternoon for all areas but the immediate coast. Skies, otherwise, will be mostly sunny, with a northerly wind at 10 to 15 mph. Rain chances are effectively zero percent. Lows tonight will drop into the mid- to upper-70s for much of the area. The bottom line is that this evening should feel a bit more pleasant outside, especially as the Sun goes down.
Wednesday
Dew points will bottom out on Wednesday. So although highs will push the upper 90s to 100 degrees, the air will again feel fairly comfortable during the daytime. Lows will drop into the 70s on Wednesday night, and a few areas far from the coast may even briefly touch the upper 60s. Enjoy this as a promise of what’s to come. The only downside is that we really, really need some rain, and none of that is in the cards before the weekend with the drier air.
Thursday and Friday
These will be days a lot like Wednesday, but we’re going to see dewpoints start to creep back up, so you’ll feel the humidity a little bit more each day. By Friday evening, I’m afraid, the front should be long gone.
Saturday and Sunday
Highs this weekend should be in the mid- to upper-90s with mostly sunny skies. Some inland areas will probably push 100 degrees. As moisture levels rise, we could see some rain showers kick up along the sea breeze during the afternoon or early evening hours, especially on Sunday. Rain chances are probably on the order of 20 to 40 percent each day, at least at this stage. Expect some refinement as we get closer to the weekend.
Next week
This pattern looks to more or less hold next week, with highs in the upper 90s for the most part, with low- to decent rain chances. See, September is already better than the 109-degree temperatures we were experiencing in August.
Tropics
There’s likely to be a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico later today, Idalia. This storm presents a significant threat to the Gulf coast of Florida, particularly the Big Bend area of the state. We have full coverage of this storm, and the rest of the Atlantic tropics, on The Eyewall.
Well, both months stink as well as June and July. And lately it’s been in the 90s into October. It’s also been 84 and humid on Christmas around here. Face it, we have one of the worst climates in the country.
Man just leave already. Gosh you complain every day about our area.
I’ve lived in Texas my whole life and Houston for nearly all of it. The mid-80s on Christmas is nothing new. We had a year when it snowed Christmas Eve and was in the 80s Christmas Day. Griping about the crazy temps or humidity is like living on the Gulf Coast and griping about hurricanes and flooding.
Preach it, brother
Lighten up, he only said ONE of the worst. There’s always Death Valley to fall back on and they don’t even have taco trucks or mega churches.
Or even worse…… Brawley, CA, Calipatra, CA and Niland, CA. All on the south and southeast side of whatever is left of the Salton Sea and the east end of the Imperial Valley. ~140 feet BELOW sea level. 105-110 is the normal high in the summer there. I spent part of 1979 working out there on a geothermal pilot plant facility for electricity generation. The facility was at Niland. We stayed in Brawley. Worked from 4:00 am to Noon.
There’s nothing to “face”, because whether it’s among the worst or not depends entirely on one’s preferences. Hence, any argument of the sort is always going to be an exercise of question-begging fallacy.
Besides, dewpoints are consistently lower in October and December compared to the summer season (no higher than 60s for the most part).. So even hot temps those months could still feel comfortable (at least relative to summer).
Every day you tell us how miserable the weather is here, or how much better it was when you lived somewhere else you can’t wait to get back to. What’s keeping you?
I’ve never had to drive in snow in my life and it’s wonderful.
I’m continuing to run my lemonade stand and raise funds for Blackhawks’ moving fees, hopefully we can raise enough for him to move where he’d like!
I don’t care for the 100+ degree days, but I actually kinda like the humid, and enjoy wearing shorts at Christmas and being able to have a pool party for New Years many years. Just remember that our hot summers are the price we pay for not having streets clogged with snow and ice in the winter.
I think I’ve been stockholmed…
Was sitting out on the porch last night reading and thinking, “this weather’s delightful!”
☺️
Right? I never thought I would be so happy for 99. But the difference 99 yesterday and 109 the day before was delightful!
I always appreciate your optimistic outlook when having to report a disheartening forecast. We’ll get through this together. Thank you!
Several years ago I notice that somewhere around Sept 6/7/8 the record highs dropped about 5-7 degrees. August is worse than September.
Looking forward to you saying in a couple weeks “I believe we are done with 100s for 2023”, and will also be happy when we say bye to 90s in October.
Do i need to trickle my faucets?
I agree with Eric. While it is still hot in September, at least you can imagine that the end is in sight. Prior to September, it’s just a long, hot slog that you take one week at a time.
Have to agree with Matt.
August sucks, but everyone knows that – expectations are low for anything other than pure misery. In September there is hope for relief but it almost never delivers, essentially making it a continuation of August. Yuck.
September is definitely better than August. Even if I don’t feel much of a change during the day, my early morning runs start to get better. I’ll take it!
A vote for August being worse than September. At least in September we know we are moving toward something more comfy. No chance in August.
August is the worst month. September is the most frustrating month.
Today is my Fall Day. It is very cool out there.
My walk this morning was actually very pleasant, with a nice breeze out of the north. (By the way–Accuweather’s 45-day forecast has the first below-70-degree low on September 24.)
LOL @ a 45-day forecast. Might as well be reading the Farmer’s Almanac.
For a little while, Eric included a haiku poem as part of his column. In honor of that, so will I:
Matt will be correct
September is August “lite”
No relief for now
August is the worst. That said, it’s like picking between a root canal or a tooth removal. Both are terrible.
I will say this morning was nice. Too bad it won’t last until noon.
It’s not necessarily a single month, more of a “window” or “period.”
In essense, the period from mid/late July into early/mid August tends to be the hottest/most drought prone. June rains tend to continue into mid-July, whereas mid August onward usually tends to bring Gulf/tropical activity that builds into September (which corresponds with the “September rain maximum” that is observed in Deep South Texas/RGV).
On the flipside, it has to be determined what exactly causes the formation of the “heat dome” regarding Texas summer weather. Whether it’s simply consistent with “Hadley Cell”, or if it results from another feature (possibly in interaction with both Mexican and Intermountain US orography). Years that have less influence, such as 2021, 2020, 2017, 2014, etc, are much more enjoyable summers than years like this one.
I claim June as the most dreadful month in Houston. It’s the contrast with spring. Is a high of 92 really that different from 95? June is often the rainiest. Wet towel mornings when you open the back door. Glasses fogging on the way to the car. I don’t usually get that in August. “Oh crap, it’s back.” June is the month hope wilts. For me it’s a mental thing. Usually…
By August we have Stockholm syndrome, as another commenter suggested. We have adjusted wardrobes, excercise routines shift. The sight of a wool sweater is repulsive. In June we are still in denial. By August, we know the monster is outside. Soup is a foolish choice, and we know it. September? No way! Hope returns. You can count on that first front. The afternoon light softens.
But this year, August was simply the worst.
My thoughts on hope are not like yours. I live for hope! And as Andy told Red in The Shawshank Redemption, “Hope is a good thing, maybe the best thing, and no good thing ever dies.” Come on fall!🍁🍂
“September days have the warmth of summer in their briefer hours, but in their lengthening evenings a prophetic breath of autumn.” — Rowland E. Robinson
Over the last decade we have only had two 100 degree days in September. And even in Houston the end of September is much better than the beginning.
Are we going to get a counter post later from Matt?
June/July is my worst month mentally when it gets hot and the sun angle is the brightest and days are the longest. I can see the difference in the sun angle end of August into September and the days are getting shorter rapidly and gives me hope.
Any chance Idalia circles back into the Gulf of Mexico?
I just asked that same question. Newest models from the NHC show Idalia circling around and re-emerging in the Gulf.
It’s all the carping about the heat, Idalia is going to come over here and dump a bath tub full of water on us.
While September is a bit “cooler” and the beginning of the “ber” months, football and holidays…it’s also seems to be the hurricane month. 🙁
My thoughts exactly
Has anyone seen the newest models for Idalia from the NHC? It shows Idalia turning around and coming back into the Gulf! Should we be worried about this?
If you look at their sister site The Eyewall, they say nobody can predict where its going after it enters the Atlantic, and the model they show has it going every which direction, with only a couple of tracks circling back around toward the gulf. So while its possible, its not exactly likely at the moment.
I was wondering, if we had “normal” temps, would this August front have brought temps down to mid-upper 80s?
Probably not. It might be mid 90s at best had we had a rainy summer this year and the ground wasn’t so dry
I love the shade Eric through at Matt there! lmao
September bothers me because it seems to be the most active month for hurricanes.