Easter Sunday forecast is finally coming into better focus

In brief: In this update we take a look at the forecast for Easter Sunday, which does not look too impactful for the greater Houston area. Nonetheless we are likely to see rain showers, and a few sporadic thunderstorms, on Sunday afternoon and evening.

Hi everyone, just wanted to jump in on this Saturday morning to provide a final look at the forecast for Easter Sunday (unless the outlook changes dramatically). We are still looking at a warm, mostly cloudy day today with temperatures in the mid-80s. Rain today and tonight is rather unlikely, so there are really no concerns beyond the relatively high (for April) humidity.

The forecast begins to change some on Sunday, when a weak front will sag toward the area. Most of our high resolution modeling suggests that Sunday morning should be fine, aside from the slim possibility of a few stray, light showers. Chances for showers and few thunderstorms increase during the afternoon hours for the western portion of the Houston metro area, and then spreading into the entire region during the evening. It would not surprise me if the best chance of rain for most locations in Houston comes during the overnight hours, into Monday morning, as the front stalls over the city.

In terms of impacts, most of Houston can expect between 0.25 and 0.75 inch of rain on Sunday and Sunday night, with the possibility of some sporadic thunderstorms. In terms of severe weather, the primary risk is damaging winds. But truth be told, overall, this does not look like a particularly threatening event. I’m hopeful that most of Houston will be able to enjoy outdoor activities through the morning and, possibly, much of the afternoon hours on Sunday. One can never be quite certain with setups like this, however, with a slow-moving front moving into an atmosphere with a decent amount of moisture.

If the outlook changes significantly, we will update this evening or on Sunday morning.