Well, it has been a busy few weeks in the tropics with hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Katia, and now Jose meandering around the Atlantic Ocean. (Speaking of Jose and its track forecast, while the 75-mph storm may move back toward the US East Coast this weekend or early next week, as of right now it most likely will stay offshore). Perhaps not surprisingly, the Atlantic season reached its “peak” of activity on Sunday. As you can see, however, a good bit of activity historically continues into early November.
But for Texas it’s a different story. I am not ready to declare an end to the Texas hurricane season, but long-time readers will recall that after Sept. 24th the chance of a hurricane hitting the state are historically quite low. Moreover, forecast models show little to no tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico for at least the next week or 10 days. So we’re getting close to that date, and after Hurricane Harvey we’ve certainly had enough of the tropics for awhile. I’ll post later this month when I think we’re all clear on the tropics front.
Now let’s take a look at our forecast for the next week.
Oh, what a glorious morning. Lows range from the upper 50s for inland areas to upper 60s closer to the cost. Temperatures over the last week have run a good six to 10 degrees below normal for early September, and I fear we’ve all taken this weather for granted. Because it’s not going to last.
We should see one more fairly dry day, in terms of humidity, today. Under mostly sunny skies highs will climb to near 90 degrees, and most areas should see another cool-ish night with lows in the upper 60s.
Wednesday through Friday
A more southerly flow resumes sometime on Wednesday, and that will return more typically September-like weather to the area. Not that we’re expecting any kind of extreme heat, mind you. We can probably expect mostly sunny days, with highs in the low 90s, and overnight lows in the low 70s. Not bad for this time of year—but the weather will pale in comparison to the last week.
Saturday through Monday
Some high pressure begins to build over the region heading into the weekend, about the same time that atmospheric moisture levels will rise somewhat. At that point it will become a battle between higher pressures (which promote sinking air) and the sea breeze (which generates lift) to see if we can squeeze any showers out. At most I expect 10 to 20 percent of Houston will see rain each day, and areas that do should only receive light accumulations. Highs will remain in the low 90s.
A number of people have asked when the region’s next front is coming. The short answer is that high pressure ridging over most of the United States is likely to block the season’s second front for at least the next 10 days to two weeks. Sorry!
Note: Thank you to everyone who responded to my request Monday to show support for the site, and our sponsor during Hurricane season, Reliant. It was, in a word, overwhelming. (16,000 likes, 3,400 shares, 3,700 comments.)