Before jumping into the forecast, I just wanted to note an oddity developing off the southeastern Brazilian coast—Tropical Storm Iba. This is the first tropical cyclone to develop in the southern Atlantic Ocean since Tropical Storm Anita, in 2010. Such storms are rare in the Atlantic, south of the equator, due to typically very high wind shear conditions. In this case, Iba should last about 24 hours and does not appear to be a significant threat to land. (I also wouldn’t read anything into Iba’s development with respect to the upcoming North Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1).
It’s warm, humid and (for some parts of Houston) foggy this morning as the region lies under a southwesterly flow. Temperatures are in the upper 60s. But a front is coming, and along with it more spring-like weather. Conditions will remain mostly cloudy through the early afternoon, with temperatures rising to about 80 degrees for the area. A diffuse area of showers and thunderstorms will move into Houston this afternoon—most people probably won’t see rain—that will herald the arrival of the front. It should move offshore this evening, allowing for clearing skies and a pleasant night in the upper 50s.
Tuesday and Wednesday
Expect a pair of amazing days, with highs in the mid-70s, sunshine, and cool nights in the 50s. Can you beat this? You cannot.
We’ll start to see some clouds return Thursday, as the onshore flow kicks in. But this should still be a nice day with temperatures in the 70s and a bit warmer night in the 60s.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
And then, the weekend. We still have more questions than answers, but Friday definitely looks to be a mostly cloudy day, with perhaps a 30 percent chance of showers, and highs near 80 depending on whether much afternoon sunshine pokes through. After a warm-ish night, Saturday will bring more clouds, humidity, and highs near 80. Based upon the latest guidance, and much can change between now and then, the best chance for rain will come between noon Saturday and noon Sunday, with perhaps a few tenths to one inch of rain for much of the area. Cooler temperatures will arrive on Sunday, with highs perhaps in the 60s.
After the front passes, later Sunday and the early part of next week look fairly sunny and pleasant again. Spring isn’t going to last forever, so get outside and enjoy it this week and (if we’re lucky) next week.