It’s another pleasantly cool morning in the Houston area, with morning lows in the 40s and 50s today. This weekend will present a mixed bag of weather, with a lovely start to Friday, followed by warmer, more humid, and drearier conditions heading into Saturday. A cold front Sunday will bring us a chance of rain and thunderstorms. We are growing more confident that a very robust cold front will slice through the area later next week, ushering some pretty cool temperatures for early April just ahead of Easter weekend.
Today
Look for outstanding weather today. Sunshine and blue skies to start, and we’ll watch for clouds to build in later today. We should see high temperatures approaching or exceeding 80 degrees this afternoon in many locations.
Saturday
Clouds will thicken up and begin to lower tonight as onshore flow ramps up behind a warm front. This should mean fog and drizzle overnight. So expect Saturday to start off a bit dreary in much of the area. We could see partial clearing Saturday afternoon, and as we do, a few showers may develop mainly north of I-10 in the afternoon. We will see highs likely in the 80s after morning lows in the 60s.
Sunday
A cold front will drop into the northern part of the area on Saturday night. Showers and a few thunderstorms may begin to develop out ahead of the front across the Houston area overnight and early Sunday. Weather models are still split on exactly how far offshore how fast this front gets on Sunday. Some hang the front back over Houston, while others push it offshore. It’s easy to see the model differences just by looking at the rain forecast on Sunday in our area from each of them
Euro: 0.5-2″
GFS: Trace-0.25″
NAM: Trace-0.25″
Canadian: 0.25-0.75″
Clearly the Euro & Canadian hold back the front, generating more rain, while the NAM & GFS are much more progressive, pushing most rain well offshore.
While there’s clearly a bit of uncertainty still, I would probably argue for splitting the difference right now: The best chance of showers should be south and east of Houston, while areas north and west see little to no rain on Sunday. I would say about a quarter-inch of rain on average. Higher amounts can’t be ruled out if the front stalls onshore, but at the same time, the rain will be sporadic enough that some places may see little to no rain at all.
Temperatures will also be tricky to pin down. Everyone should see highs somewhere in the 70s on Sunday. Morning lows, however, may range from the upper 50s northwest of Houston to upper 60s in the city and toward the coast.
Early Next Week
By Monday morning, even the Euro and Canadian models have pushed the front offshore, and the area should see a fairly nice day with highs in the 70s after morning lows in the 50s. Onshore flow kicks back into gear Tuesday with more clouds, a slight chance of drizzle or light rain, and high temperatures ramping back up into the 80s probably.
Big pre-Easter cold front
Weather models seem to be in pretty good agreement overall regarding later next week. Onshore flow really begins to ramp Tuesday night into Wednesday. A cold front will approach later Wednesday or early Thursday. This one has a little more muscle behind it than most recent fronts, so expect to see a pretty substantial drop in temperatures once it clears.
What we are confident in: A cold front with some showers, followed by much cooler, drier air sometime Wednesday or Thursday lingering into the weekend.
What we are not confident in: The exact timing of the front, how much rain, exactly how cool the air will be behind the front, the odds of a light freeze in northwestern parts of the area, and whether or not we can keep the pleasant weather going all the way to Easter Sunday.
Given the model data right now, once it clears our area, we’ll likely see something on the order of highs in the upper-60s with lows in the 40s for late next week. There are a number of European ensemble members even pushing lows into the 30s for Houston next weekend! It’s too soon to talk about a late season light freeze in northwest parts of the area, but it’s worth monitoring if you have things planted. Each model run this week has progressed a couple degrees colder with the air mass late next week, so our confidence in this has nudged up a little also.
Can the nice weather keep going into Easter Sunday? Maybe. I think the smart money is on the air mass starting to warm up a bit by then with some added cloud cover, but at this point we don’t see a significant risk of rain at least. Eric will have the latest on this for you on Monday.
Hey guys – great stuff as always. Just a technical note – graphics like the ensemble presentation above used to be “clickable” in that you could open them and look at them in larger size. Something has changed and that’s no longer the case.
Not a big deal overall!
If you are using Chrome, you can right-click on it and open the image in a new tab which should allow you to zoom in. HTH.
You can upload it to your photos easily and then expand it for better reading. Not as easy as it used to be but doable.
Great idea
You can also just use ‘Ctl +’ to just zoom in the browser itself.
I’m very glad to hear that we’ll get a cold front “with some muscle” for Easter weekend (first week of April). We’ll have plenty of hot and humid time soon enough.
I have a virtual marathon planned for this weekend in Fulshear, TX. Will Sunday morning be the better day? Looks like lower temps and potentially no rain since west of Houston, right?
I do think Sunday morning is slightly better, if not significantly better than Saturday morning in that part of town.
You’re the best! Thanks!
I’m not looking forward to cold weather, but that is possible in spring. Winter time lasts so long. But this is the Easter Snap, which generally happens every year.