Fall Day is coming to Houston, and it’s going to be glorious

Is anyone ready for Fall Day? We strongly believe it should be a Houston holiday. We declare Fall Day as the first day temperatures are forecast to drop to 65 degrees, or lower. For Houston this probably will occur next Tuesday, or Wednesday at the latest. That’s because we’re now pretty confident in a cold front crossing the area next Monday or Monday night. A rather nice front, in fact. More on that in a minute, but first I want to call your mind back to 2019.

September of last year was a brutal affair, combining the pain of Tropical Storm Imelda’s flooding and the lack of a low temperature below 71 degrees. Houston did not get its first front until the first week of October, and the region’s first low temperature of 65 degrees or below did not come until October 8. This was the latest “front,” by our definition of the temperature falling to at least 65 degrees, in the 50 years the region’s “official” station has been sited at Bush Intercontinental Airport.

When is the first day of “fall” in Houston. (Brian Brettschneider for Space City Weather)

Anyway, if we celebrate Fall Day next Tuesday it will come on the 29th, about two weeks late. So far this year the region has had one front that died as it reached Houston, and another weak one that made it through (the low temperature got to 66 degrees on September 20th at Bush IAH). But now, we’re going to get out first bonafide fall front.

Friday

So where’s the sun? We thought we would see more sunshine on Thursday afternoon than we did, but we promise it’s coming. Today should see partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs reaching into the mid-80s. Light northerly winds will gradually shift to the east today, and to the southeast tonight. As a result low temperatures tonight probably will only fall to around 70 degrees for much of the area.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks pretty nice for late September, with lots of sunshine and highs in the mid-80s to 90 degrees. Lows will be a few degrees warmer, likely in the low 70s for most. Due to the wind shift, it will be a little muggier than we’ve seen in recent days. There’s a very slight chance of rain, perhaps 10 percent, right along the coast on Sunday. But we doubt it.

Dewpoint map shows the approximate location of the cold front on Monday, at 4pm CT, in the European model. (Weather Bell)

Monday

Temperatures on Monday are going to depend on the timing of the front. We can’t be precise with that right now, so I’d guess the front reaches the Interstate 69 corridor running through downtown Houston sometime during the afternoon hours and the coast by the evening. There may be some scattered showers along or ahead of the front’s passage, but right now this is nothing to get excited about. Lows Monday night should drop into the low 60s.

Remainder of next week

Our weather next week will be determined by the strength of the front, so there are still some details to be worked out. Generally, I think we can expect highs in the low 80s, overnight lows perhaps in the 50s for inland areas, and 60s along the coast. We’ll definitely see some notably drier air, and there’s the possibility of a reinforcing front by Friday or so to keep the Fall-train rolling into the weekend. But I don’t feel entirely confident about that yet.

See you all on Monday morning, or rather, Fall Day Eve.

12 thoughts on “Fall Day is coming to Houston, and it’s going to be glorious

  1. Suzette

    You guys are THE BEST! Congratulations to Matt and his wife on their new baby! Happy Fall Day!!!!

  2. Cindy Duffy

    Happy Fall Day Eve!
    It’s a joy to start my day off by reading SCW.
    Thank you for all you guys do for your readers and our very large community. We live between Port Lavaca and Palacios and your forecast provides info for us as well.
    You. Are. The. BEST!

  3. John

    Ha! My kindergartener also declared yesterday that Fall should be a holiday. He said the first day it’s colder outside than it is inside should be a holiday, because we need another holiday before Halloween. I agree with both of you!

  4. Raymond Lovorn

    Thanks for the reminder of Sept 2019. I still wear my SCW T-shirt that memorializes that miserable month!

  5. Nan

    Your hard work produces a remarkable product. So enjoy reading your forecasts, quips, and all without hype or drama . Appreciate your down to earth comment. Congrats on the new baby boy. Enjoy the weekend 🚴‍♀️🚴‍♂️

  6. Stella Elaine Wikstrom

    Enjoy your weekend after a somewhat harrowing week. Thanks for all your hard work.

  7. Lg

    Congratulations To Matt & his wife on there new baby!
    Thank you to Matt & to Eric for keeping us informed.
    You guys are the best!

  8. Michael V. Jozwiak

    In Houston, normally Fall Day falls in late Fall falling on December 9th or later. I think I posted the rest of the comment recently, but 41 and 42 years ago, I played in the City Men’s SLO-Pitch Softball League where each league was played in 60s something degrees Fahrenheit temperatures from mid September to mid October. It was nice.

  9. Chris Kleinz

    I’m moving this weekend to Denver for work and I’m going to miss these great forecasts! Best of luck to you both and congrats again Matt!

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