Harvey late Monday morning: Rains remain, but storm finally moving

Monday, 10:30am CT—There is no way to escape the reality of the situation on the ground this morning: Houston bayous are flooding, and even after the region has received 30 inches of rain during the last two days, more is now falling over the central Houston area. It is a catastrophic situation. Finally, however, the end is in sight. Another day or two of this …

Harvey

Harvey remains barely a tropical storm, but its center moved into the Gulf of Mexico near Matagorda Bay this morning. Presently moving to the southeast at about 5 mph, some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or two as Harvey turns east, then northeast, but as discussed yesterday we are not too concerned about this possibility due to the lack of an organized core, and additionally some drier air is working into the storm. (See official track forecast).

Tropical Storm Harvey at 10am CT on Monday. (NOAA)

Overall, Harvey’s movement into the Gulf may be a positive development, because the storm is getting closer to being picked up by lower pressure in the Midwestern United States, which should lift it north. By later Tuesday, or Wednesday, we should hopefully be on the back side of the storm, with northerly winds helping to push water from inland bayous out to the Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rains should end, hopefully, by Wednesday or Wednesday night.

Short-term concerns

During the last day or so the core of heaviest rainfall associated with Harvey has moved from Houston, to the Beaumont area, and now to Lafayette and Alexandra, La. That is not to say the rains have stopped in Houston. Rather, this morning, there is a pretty nasty line of showers along Highway 59, from El Campo up through downtown Houston. Rainfall rates here are not pleasant, at 0.5 to 1.5 inches an hour, but they probably aren’t heavy enough to greatly magnify the region’s already exceptional flooding problems.

Rainfall totals from 7 to 10 am Monday morning show manageable rates. (HCOEM)

Our forecast for the rest of the day is somewhat optimistic—but with some concerns. We expect rainfall rates in storms developing over Houston to be manageable (i.e. less than 2 inches of rainfall per hour) throughout most of the day. However, some of the model guidance is indicating that some heavier and more problematic rains could develop this afternoon and evening over Houston. We are going to have to watch this closely.

A lot of friends, family members, and readers have asked me “Is the worst over?” The answer is probably yes, if only because the region has already absorbed 20 to 30 inches of rain. And we’re almost certainly not going to get that much rain over the next two to three days. But some areas in greater Houston probably could still see another 10 to 15 inches of rain. So I’m afraid that it’s going to be another day of watching the radar as we just can’t breathe a sigh of relief yet with Harvey’s center so close.

We’ll update early this afternoon when we have more confidence about rain conditions later today and tonight.

Posted at 10:30am CT on Monday by Eric

62 thoughts on “Harvey late Monday morning: Rains remain, but storm finally moving”

    • I know my post sounds like a million others, but thank you for providing this vital information in such a clear, concise way. The weight of caring for my elderly parents and young children during this nightmare is crushing. To have to interpret the meteorological data on my own or wade through the incessant chatter of the local news would just add to the stress. I’ll remember Eric and Matt for the rest of my life.

    • Eric – hope you/your family is safe – thank you for the calming effect you have on all of us when we need it most…..

  2. Thanks Eric for posting so frequently, and for remaining realistic and calm. I look forward to your posts. Here in the Walnut Bend subdivision, things have not been bad although it was touch-and-go on Saturday night. No water in the house yet, so I’m hopeful that we will continue to stay dry.

  6. Tracking via NOAA, Harvey moving more to the east which puts us on the better side of Harvey, looks like the worst is over rain wise at least for most of Houston and the south east.

  8. You all are the best. I check this site 20 times a day to get updates. Thank you very much for all your hard work!

  9. Thank you, Eric. I evacuated yesterday and am now watching/reading from a distance. Our fair city will be recovering from Harvey for months and possibly years to come. I appreciate the sincerity in your updates.

  10. Sadly, we lost power about an hour ago in League City (Brittany Bay/Brittany Lakes area)—reasonably clear skies and no rain or anything. Walked outside and saw neighbors up and down the street poking their heads out the doors. T&NMP says it could be back on literally any time between now and Thursday morning.

    Not looking forward to a few nights in the damp heat, but frankly I’ll be grateful if this is the worst thing that happens in our neck of the woods. Stay safe, everyone.

    • Lee- chances are your outage is due to the substation becoming submerged. I know this was a concern about 36 hours ago.

      • Fortunately, we got power back after about 80 minutes without it. With luck, the outage was just due to ongoing repair work (maybe a pole replacement or something). Continuing to hunker down and wait—fortunately with AC, at least for now.

  11. As a parent in West Texas with my kids in Houston, you have been a great help to me. Our daughter suggested that I follow you for a no-drama, but confident report of current conditions.

  13. How is katy looking for the rest of the day? Our neighborhood started to ge bad yesterday and we are hoping it can recede soon. Thank you!!

    • Katy: universal bakery is offering shelter in their multi purpose hall and food for occupants. Address: 27131 Cinco Ranch Blvd Contact Surya at 732 447 5886

  14. Thank you for your sympathetic and well-thought out posts on this storm. While it sounds like things are on the upswing I can’t but feel I may be jinxing things by thinking that, with all the punches this storm has thrown at Houston.

  15. Thank you! Not really a weather question, but any thoughts you have about the water being released from the dams, and any potential effects inside the loop, would be most appreciated.

  16. Thx I’m so nervous we’re getting the dam water and it’s a river going down the street. Looking forward to your evening insight as the weather report of heavy rain is not good.

  17. Eric, I am a Houston native that moved away this year. Your reporting has kept me calm and truly understanding of what my family and friends are dealing with.

    Thank you so much. Stay safe and keep up the great work.

  18. Is it possible that this thing will pick up some speed and move out of here faster?

    Also what effects of the proximity to the coast would we feel in the houston/Katy area? Closer is more rain but manageable? Further out less nonstop rain but harder hits?

  19. Thank you so much for all that you do, we are so grateful to hear your calm voice in this storm.

  20. The rains in our area are slowing down the receding of Brays bayou, which means that the destruction of Robindell us stretching out the agony.
    I got to ride a small power boat down one of the most beautiful tree lined streets in Houston. The water was high enough that I had to duck my head from time to time.

  21. Still raining in Sugar Land, and the Brazos River has become the bigger threat. The transition from Voluntary to Mandatory Evac zones is happening scarily fast.

  22. Thank you, again, Eric and Matt, for responsible and responsive weather reporting. I am referring family and friends in and out of Houston to your site. It makes such a difference
    to have your angle on this storm and experience.

  23. Can y’all please try to briefly assess the issue with the Brazos River and impact to the Fort Bend / Sugar Land area? Lots of family and friends there that could use a solid realistic take on it. Many people suddenly went from no evacuation to mandatory evacuation status within 12 hours and many, especially those in the voluntary evacuation zones, are trying to figure out what to do. Y’all’s input would be greatly appreciated!!!

  26. This site has been a welcome relief from the MegaHype of the Weather channel idiots. Thanks for all the great information as we ride out this unprecedented storm here in Manvel/Pearland area.

  28. I’m stir crazy, and feeling very helpless. My coworkers in Dickinson are holed up on 2nd floors or being rescued by trucks and a caravan of flat bottom boats that came over from Louisiana. Please pray for them, there’s nothing much I can do from Clear Lake. My condo complex has not had any water inside, which is only because of a new retention hole being developed at Exploration Green (old Clear Lake Golf Course). Thank you for hanging in there with us. We are planning a cookout as soon as the sky is clear again which can’t come soon enough. I need some Vitamin D!

  29. Been a subscriber from the start. You are doing a fantastic job of keeping us informed. I hope this earns you commendation, greater recognition, and a flood of new subscribers.

  30. Eric, Matt, you guys are the best. As my friends and family around the country email/text me questions and concerns, I send back the link to your page. We’re just north of Tomball on a heavly wooded lot so concern is for high winds on soggy ground. Any predictions on max wind gusts northwest of Houston?

  31. Eric, thank you for all that you and Matt have done.
    We are just south of buffalo bayou near the barker dam release point. Near Eldridge and briar forest. We have been fine so far but scared that the imminent increased release will change everything. We are only 6′ higher than the bayou.
    Should we be worried that this will be the thing that has us calling for rescue?

  32. A teacher friend of mine recommended your blog…and I am glad I started following you guys! No media hype, just straight facts that I can understand. Thank you both so much!

  33. Thank you so much for the amazing job you’re doing. It’s been invaluable as I am out of state trying to monitor multiple households of my family across the region. The news is chaos without enough detail. This site has been an incredible resource. Please keep it up. You’re helping so many.

  35. How likely are we to see some more Brown Ocean Effect strengthening Harvey and sucking more moisture from the gulf? Or is that exactly what is keeping it alive?

  37. The Weather Channel is just a bunch of sophomoric and glory hog on air folks (sans a few like Carl Parker). As soon as this is over, it’s gonna be all global warming theories. Gosh, I hate them now

  38. Can you speak about winds with the movement getting closer to Houston? I noticed a big pickup in wind today west of galleria. And with the ground being saturated, trees could start being a problem…

  39. Thank you for your insight and calm and for keeping us all consistently informed. You are my trusted resource.

  40. Your updates are helping to ease my mind while I’m stuck in India for work and can’t fly into Houston. Thank you both for providing such detailed updates throughout the day!!

  41. Subject: Fwd:
    Trying to get all of Houston to pray Divine Mercy Chaplet @ 3PM today!! Pass it on!

  42. For anyone needing meals or medical care:

    From Ayesha Khan:
    If you’re at home and safe but have lost electricity or run out of food- the Indian community of Houston has locations serving free food and offering free medical services (see below).
    If anyone is at or near a major shelter that is running out of food, contact me ASAP via FB MESSAGE we have caterers in the area that can provide free food for 50-1000 people.
    * The Curry House in Cypress has agreed to feed 50-100 people at a time for free. If you’re operating a smaller shelter in the area, or even for your family alone- call 713-725-9805. Address: 10728 Cypress Creek Pkwy
    *Chatkara Grill at 6202 Hwy 6 is also delivering free food with the help of the National Guard. Call 2819887141
    * Pearland has been hit hard. The Biryani Express is giving out individual food packets for free. Call (281) 707-9574
    * Cypress Folks: You can reach Dr. Minni Malhotra at 606-854-2551 for free. If she can’t reach you, she’ll help you over the phone for free.
    * Deep Foods is giving out hampers with snacks, candles/ gas lamps, other essentials at Biryani Pot in Katy or Swagath Grocery in Katy.
    * Woodlands area: Hyderabad House is giving free lunch and dinner out for families. Call (361) 815-0166 or contact Sudheer directly at 713.714.7124
    * Katy: universal bakery is offering shelter in their multi purpose hall and food for occupants. Address: 27131 Cinco Ranch Blvd Contact Surya at 732 447 5886
    * Café India and Chowpatty Chaat in Sugarland will try to deliver food to nearby areas if they can reach them. Call Dinesh at 732 593 9650
    * Biryani Pot in Katy will remain open at all times and serve free food for those affected. Call Vinay to see what capacity they have at (610) 714-2123
    * Free Family medicine help- Dr. Manjula Raguthu 956-639-8699 and Dr. Surya Raguthu 956-639-8666
    * Meridien Springs primary care is also offering free consults and help, Dr. Bhavana Rao 281-826-1359
    * Bawarchi Houston can pack free family meals for those in need, contact Naveen at 973-393-7117
    * Alaina to Riverstone Community: Vishala restaurant is serving free food and will try their best to get food out to your door. Contact Manoj +1 (248) 778-8855
    * Katy area evacuation: contact Christopher who has a high water vehicle and boat. Call 281-687-8992
    Lol v proud of the desi community. And believe me, Biryani has a way of making a lot of things better. Stay safe everyone ❤️

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