Heavier storms rotating into Houston, major flood event remains likely tonight


As expected, Houston today has so far only seen scattered light to moderate rain showers. However during the next few hours heavier storms are going to begin rotating into the region.

Radar snapshot at 3:45 p.m. shows somewhat stronger storms approaching Houston. (Intellicast)

Radar snapshot at 3:45 p.m. shows somewhat stronger storms approaching Houston. (Intellicast)

 

This won’t be the main event, but it’s going to soften up our soils for what should be considerably stronger storms later tonight.

Some of the latest forecast modeling continues to suggest the onset of this heavier rain, with rainfall rates of perhaps 3 inches an hour or higher, around 8 or 9 p.m. this evening. Such storms will have the potential to flood streets quickly.

Much of the latest modeling also indicates the very heaviest rains — locations where 10 or more inches might fall tonight — will come along the coast, from Matagorda to Galveston to Chambers and Jefferson counties. That doesn’t rule out inland counties, including Harris County, from such extremes, but that seems to be the way models are trending.

During the last few hours we have also seen favorable conditions for funnel cloud development, and most of the southern half of the Houston metro area is under a tornado watch until 10 p.m. tonight.

I’ll have a comprehensive update on the storms at 7 p.m. tonight.

Posted at 4:05 p.m. CT

10 thoughts on “Heavier storms rotating into Houston, major flood event remains likely tonight

  1. bonnie

    clear lake area golfers mentioned a small vortex / funnel cloud dropping debris on them mid morning

  2. Mark

    Heavier rains hitting us now in eastern Fort Bend County. BTW the long range accuweather forecast predicts another drenching a week from today on Halloween. I know we have to get through this weekend first, but are we looking at a potential washout of trick and treating?

  3. TimP

    Thank you, Eric.

    I’m very grateful to see that you will still be continuing this and look forward to your contributions at Ars Technica as well.

    Best regards,

    TimP

  4. David

    Eric,

    What conditions would need to materialize for the memorial day scenario to repeat itself in Meyerland?

    As long as we stay under 3 inches per hour and the totals are under 12, is it reasonable to expect we’ll be OK with the bayous doing their job?

    1. Eric

      I’d say rainfall rates less than 2.5 inches an hour, and a total of 10 inches or less tonight, and you’re OK. More than that then there will be some problems.

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