High pressure is back, and will continue to dominate our weather

Good morning. I hope everyone had a safe, healthy, and happy Fourth of July. If you liked the calm and hot conditions on Monday, you’re in luck, because high pressure is more or less here to stay, and that’s the kind of weather we’re going to see for awhile. If you did not like the weather, well, I’m sorry to say the pattern is unlikely to change for at least a week or two.


Skies will again be mostly sunny today, with high temperatures of around 90 degrees right along the coast, to mid-90s in parts of Houston, to around 100 degrees for far inland areas. Winds will also be light, out of the south at 5 to 10 mph, for much of the day. With a persistent onshore flow there will not be much relief overnight, with lows unlikely to drop below 80 degrees for much of the metro area.

Much of Texas has fallen under a ridge of high pressure this week. (Weather Bell)

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Each of these days will generally bring temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s, but the difference is the ridge should back off just slightly. This will allow for a slight chance of showers each afternoon, perhaps on the order of 10 to 20 percent. These will occur as the sea breeze migrates inland, and you should consider yourself lucky if you win the rain lottery each of these days. Nights remain warm and muggy.

Saturday and Sunday

If you’re making plans for the weekend, you can reliably count on hot and sunny conditions, with highs near 100 degrees in the metro area. Prepare to sweat.

High temperatures this weekend will look something like this. (Weather Bell)

Next week

Hey Eric, when is this pattern going to change? Well, as we get deeper into July, the models suggest the next reasonable chance for widespread rain probably won’t come until the weekend after next, in the July 15 to 17 range. Because that is so far out to forecast, overall confidence in this kind of a pattern change is fairly low.


They’re fairly quiet, and we’ll have an update from Matt a little later this morning.

7 thoughts on “High pressure is back, and will continue to dominate our weather”

  1. Well, to make lemonade out of lemons, I guess we can say that the forecast or expectations doesn’t require any changes.

    Same stuff, different day (as the polite phrasing would be).

  2. Is a 2011-esque drought becoming more and more likely? Seeing as how that tropical system provided little to no relief for most north of 10, I am guessing that would probably be less than a 1/2 inch of rain in the last month and a half for most of the region?

  3. This high pressure stuff is getting ridiculous, can’t we just blow it up with a nuke of something? It works with asteroids in the movies.

    Or can we at least reschedule it for mid-August through September when at least it will block the three hurricanes which will be in the Gulf at any one time?

  4. Yikes…looking at our average rainfall May and June are typically our biggest rain months totaling over 10 inches between the two. We got about 4 inches of rain this year, with June being about 1/2 an inch. Not great as July and August are typically 2 of the drier months on average. Poor plants…

  5. Eric….Can you explain again what happened at the last minute , that drove ALL the rain to the east again !!!!!

  6. Yes. I think most of us agree. Lack of tropical activity is not good and it really is a downer to read that it is “good news” in these reports. The plants and trees cannot be watered with a sprinkler system….

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