Houston is mostly hot as storm forms in the Southern Gulf of Mexico

August may be over, but the heat will remain for Houston as a late-summer ridge of high pressure settles in over the region. There are no cold fronts in sight, alas. Meanwhile, the Atlantic season’s fifth tropical storm is forming in the southern Gulf of Mexico (it is no threat to Houston) and Hurricane Dorian has absolutely ravaged the northern Bahamas. We’ve got a lot to get to today.

Monday

There are no bones about it, today and the rest of the week will be hot beneath a ridge of high pressure. Coastal counties, such as Galveston and Brazoria, may see some showers today from the very outer bands of the tropical system deep in the Southern Gulf of Mexico, but most of the region will be hot and sunny, with highs near 100 degrees. Lows tonight will be near 80.

A hot day Monday in Texas. (Pivotal Weather)

Tuesday through the weekend

To be honest, the weather is not going to change a whole lot for Houston this week. We’re going to remain in this high-pressure driven hot-and-sunny pattern, with highs near or at 100 degrees for the remainder of this week, and likely through the weekend. Rain chances will be near zero, as we start to have some drought concerns.

Heat, how long?

The heat wave may finally break early next week, as highs fall back to more normal temperatures in the low- to mid-90s. However, the chances of a cold front during the first half of September appear to be quite remote.

Here’s the one European ensemble member that predicts a cold front. (Weather Bell)

Here’s the latest ensemble output from the European model for low temperatures through September 17. Just one member out of 50 (!) brings a notable front into Houston during that time. These are not, uhhh, good odds.

Tropics

Let’s start with the system in the southern Gulf of Mexico, which is likely to become a tropical depression today. Matt and I have not paid this system much attention over the last several days because it has been clear that building high pressure over Texas is going to steer it away, and that is indeed what is happening. The Brownsville area may see some rain bands and winds today.

Potential tropical cyclone seven. (National Hurricane Center)

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Dorian has absolutely ravaged the northern Bahamas this weekend after becoming nearly stationary for a day and a half. Finally, today, a trough of low pressure moving southeastward over the United States will pick up Dorian, and should begin to pull it north. This should keep the center of Dorian away from the Florida coast, but its track could bring the storm very close to the Carolinas by late Thursday or early Friday.

Hurricane Dorian forecast as of Tuesday morning. (National Hurricane Center)

Finally, the tropics remain quite active. While Texas only has a few more weeks of prime time season left, we need to remain pretty vigilant. The forecast models indicate development of a couple more vigorous tropical waves in the next week to 10 days in the central Atlantic, which may track westward toward the Caribbean Sea. It is most definitely that time of year.

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12 thoughts on “Houston is mostly hot as storm forms in the Southern Gulf of Mexico

  1. Kim

    Am I right assuming as long as we are sizzling under the ridge of high pressure hurricanes won’t come into our area but rather go around it?

  2. Jason

    I’m assuming that this didn’t mean to start out with Monday, because Monday was yesterday.

    1. Frank

      I agree, although I have to be careful what I wish for cause I also flooded during Harvey, but a little tropical wave or depression that doesn’t stall can actually be very beneficial sometimes, especially when it’s been this hot and dry.

  3. LCNerd

    One thing that has been missing from the talk about Dorian is how tightly wound it is. While the winds are positively awful and the eye is super intense, those crazy winds extend only extend about 40 miles out from the center. There are part of the “The Bahamas” that are doing just fine.

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