Hurricane season begins, and yes, something may develop in the Gulf

June 1 marks the “official” beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season, and although it often begins quietly, we start this season with an eye on the Gulf of Mexico. For a couple of days now, the European model ensembles have been hinting at the formation of a tropical system in the southern Gulf of Mexico, and now this appears more likely. On Saturday morning, the National Hurricane Center raised to 50 percent the possibility of a tropical depression or storm forming there during the next five days.

As of 7am CT on Saturday, the National Hurricane Center forecasts a 50 percent chance of development.

All the usual caveats apply here: It is difficult to have much confidence in the movement of a system that has not yet formed, and it will also be affected by its proximity to the Mexican coast. With that said, generally, we expect this tropical system to move to the west-northwest over the next few days, perhaps toward Tampico (along the country’s east coast on the southern Gulf of Mexico) or Brownsville.

Assessing where this tropical system may go. (Tropical Tidbits/Space City Weather)

What this all means for Texas in general, and Houston in particular, for the coming week is far from certain. We still expect partly to mostly sunny skies through at least Monday, with hot temperatures in the mid-90s. But our weather beyond this, to some extent, will be determined by the movement of this tropical system. The ceiling for this system, in terms of winds, is low, so our primary concern will be the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall.

Eventually, it is going to get pulled north, so we can have some confidence in wet weather for Texas next week, but confidence for where, and how much rain, remains low. I’d say the best chance for heavy rainfall in Houston would come from late Wednesday through Thursday, but there are so many variables we’ll just have to see. For now, we’re not too concerned about the potential for any flooding in the greater Houston area—forced to guess, I’d say 1-3 inches of rain—but obviously we’ll be monitoring this for you.

17 thoughts on “Hurricane season begins, and yes, something may develop in the Gulf”

  1. We could use the rain, and if it lets a little steam off the tropics early, so much the better.

    Just keep it under 3″, OK?

    • Since Harvey and 30% of Katy flooded with people losing their homes I agree that this joke has run its course. It was funny after Ike.

    • I live in Katy. Jokes about the yuppies of Katy evacuating will ALWAYS be funny.

  2. Living on the west end of Galveston Island make the Katy evacuation jokes hilarious!!!!

  3. I’m not trying to steal Eric & Matt’s thunder, but I would highly recommend this website for anyone that wants additional analysis of tropical systems that may impact the U.S.
    It’s run by Levi Cowan, a graduate meteorology student at Florida State University. His presentation style is very no-nonsense, which is why I think Space City Weather readers would appreciate a complimentary source of no-hype info on the tropics.

    Also as a part-time Katy-dweller, I’ll throw my hat in the ring and say that I think the jokes are still funny.

  4. Please stop with the Katy jokes, it’s immature and insensitive. I was part of the recovery efforts in Katy after Harvey. We delivered food and basic supplies amongst the devastation to the thousands that were flooded in. Many lost their homes, some lost much more. Eric and Matt please consider removing “Katy jokes” in the future.

    • Where the Katy evacuation joke comes from has nothing to do with with the real world consequence of storms. It comes from the essential birthplace of the website and Eric/Matt’s efforts to provide detailed, honest no nonsense weather information. The joke is about one of the TV news channels talking about evacuating Katy years ago (Rita I believe).

      So for everyone that feels hurt, yes Katy was impacted by the flooding of Harvey. But the joke isn’t about the heartache loss and pain of storms. It’s about the majority of weather reports that like to exaggerate reporting to keep eyeballs engaged.

      The next time you see someone make the joke, don’t think about Harvey. Think about why you watch weather reporting on the local news.

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