In about a week, Houston should finally get its first true taste of autumn

We have two problems to solve right now in Houston. There’s the abnormally hot weather (September is on pace to obliterate the previous warmest September on record), although I’m sure temperatures are now such that some of you are okay with things. There is also the drought. We’ve been nibbling away at that over the last 2 weeks or so with some daily showers and storms popping up across the area (including a spectacularly photogenic one yesterday).

Believe it or not, the drought has actually improved week over week in Houston, albeit just a teensy bit. (US Drought Monitor)

Yes, we’ve knocked back the extent of exceptional drought from 76 percent coverage at its worst to 56 percent today, but that’s the hydrologic equivalent of getting a gratuitously indulgent slice of chocolate cake, having one small bite, and calling it a day. There is still work to be done.

More likely will be a legitimate cooldown next week, although that could come with some rain too. Eric said yesterday that if it does not happen, it’s my fault. I could not agree more. Let’s dive in.

Today through Monday

This forecast is pretty basic. Expect sun and clouds each day with highs in the mid, perhaps upper-90s in a few spots (near 90 or so at the coast), with lows in the mid-70s.

Sweat it out today and tomorrow with inland highs easily in the mid-90s, if not upper-90s in spots. (Pivotal Weather)

Each day will carry a very, very low chance of showers north of I-10. Better (but not high) chances will exist south of I-10, especially near the coast, down toward Matagorda Bay, and into the Victoria Crossroads. Most places won’t get wet, but those that do could see some locally heavy, brief downpours.

Tuesday and Wednesday

As moisture increases and the “trigger” for showers edges a little closer to our area, we could see slightly better chances of isolated to scattered showers and storms here. We’ll probably be talking about highs in the low to mid-90s, with lows still in the 70s.

Cold front!!!!

While models differ on the exact timing of things, it appears that sometime between Thursday and Saturday our first bonafide cold front of the season will finally push through the area.

The European ensemble forecast of mid-level temperature anomalies over the next 13 or 14 days shows how the warm pattern finally breaks down for a spell late next week and weekend. (Tropical Tidbits)

It should hopefully deliver some showers and storms, followed by cooler and much less humid air. We’re probably looking at highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s along with comfortable humidity most days beyond Friday if all goes according to plan. Fingers crossed. We’ll have an update on this for you Monday.

24 thoughts on “In about a week, Houston should finally get its first true taste of autumn”

  1. Will Kileen cool off next weekend as well? I’m supposed to spend next weekend at Fort Cavazos with my WWII Jeep 🙂

    • I mean, if the front gets through to Houston, it will pass through Killeen to do so. So Killeen should see the cooler temps 12-18 hours or so prior.

  2. Even the Accuweather long range forecast, which is all over the map, has a low of 65 on Sunday morning Oct 8. Here’s hoping for some rain too; they just cut down two deceased large oak trees at my workplace. Too bad they didn’t water them these past few weeks.

    • Many people are blaming dead trees on the drought but they never watered them. Once dead a tree is gone forever and we are all the poorer for it.

  3. A cold front will indeed be welcome but I’m just going to hold my applause for when we’re 3 days out and the forecast is pretty locked in.

    I’ll hold off on putting up the “Mission Accomplished” banner until the second cold front of the season. We have to save something for future occasions.

    • Yep. Called it yesterday. First forecasted cool front of the season usually doesn’t happen, and we’re all left disappointed. Believe it when I see it (or feel it).

  4. Not sure why people want Houston to be like Maine. We are almost in the deep south. The weather here is hot and humid. Very illogical to be hoping for cold weather here. Im tired of how hot it is but it’s completely understandable that it will last until November. Yes this year we broke records and the drought has been a nightmare because this side of the US tends to have a lot more rain. There is def a change in the weather but for so many people to be expecting coldness its strange. Lets be realistic here.

    • Our “cold” is really just barely considered cool by northern standards. None of us here in Texas hope for the coldness of Maine for this time of year. But….these cooler temps after a blistering set of heat waves are cherished by many because we are tired of running our A/C units all night and all day. And…we can even open some windows to get some fresh air!

    • I don’t know why people need to assume that the other extreme (Maine) is what’s desired. How ’bout just something in between?

      • I’ll take TN or NC – – – two of the three places I’m eyeing for retirement. (The other is far north Alabama, AKA Tennessee).

        • I’m from NC and very much miss the weather. Love Houston for many reasons but the weather is not one. Winters in Charlotte, NC are usually in the 30’s, maybe 20’s. Doesn’t usually get into the teens and never into the single digits. Some years you get a snow or two, some you don’t. Summers can get into the 90’s but usually just the low 90’s. It’s infrequent and only for brief periods to see temperatures above 95. Usually highs are low 80’s. Mountains are nearby if you need relief for a weekend. Beach is only 3-4 four hours away depending on the beach.

        • I definitely would like western NC but as far as I can tell real estate is extraordinarily high. I love mountains and have hiked some trails in the Smokies.

    • The problem is, the longer it takes for our first cold front, the fewer will be the number of really nice autumn days with highs in the 70s/80s and lows in the 50s/60s. Instead, we will go from summer right into winter. This has happened in other years. An earlier cold front means a longer autumn. But I’m with you about really cold winter weather–we should put it off as long as possible.

  5. This has been a historically hot summer even giving the 2011 summer a run for it’s money. Did we really think it was going to go out easily without a fight? Lol

  6. Anyone else notice in the image above the blue hue (assuming cool air) retreating rather quickly from our area. Geez, hopefully its not one of those 2 day shots and then back to the mid 90’s and sweltering humidity.

  7. I was asked by Tina in the previous comment section, “Why I’d been keeping weather records since 1970.” Well, I’ve always been interested in the weather and also keeping records can solve a lot of disagreements.

      • I’m actually retired from the Corps of Engineers and the wife and I have lived out in Santa Fe for 40 years on a couple acres of land. That’s why I’ve been so upset with this summer’s drought. Especially with trying to keep all the large oaks and maple trees alive which I’ve planted throughout the years.

  8. I’m not going to know what to do with myself when I walk outside and its in the mid 60’s and mid 80’s! Probably shiver.

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