Late Sunday afternoon Harvey forecast update

Good afternoon. Rain rates today have been more manageable in the area. We’ve even had reports of sunshine in spots. Over the next few hours, the weather is going to likely deteriorate once more. Current problems will continue and new ones will crop up, but we feel that we will probably see less rain overall tonight than we did last night in the Houston area. That being said, tonight’s rains come with a bit more uncertainty than last night’s. Let’s explain.

Now

Harvey is centered about 25 miles from Victoria. This is further east than Harvey was at this time yesterday. The setup has changed a bit, with a weak boundary along I-10 and flow that’s directed more southeast to northwest from the Gulf.

What does this mean? It means that varying intensities of rainfall are likely tonight south of I-10. Again, this isn’t optimal, but my hope is that the rains will remain manageable south and southeast of Houston. Folks in those areas will need to stay alert and keep the guard up overnight, but rain totals (and the hope is VERY importantly, the rain rates) should be less than last night.

Overnight HRRR model projects the heaviest rains near Beaumont/Port Arthur and north of I-10 in Houston. (Weather Bell)

North of I-10,it’s similar, but with more rain and fewer breaks. Expect occasional 1-3″ per hour rain rates in those areas. This will exacerbate already near-record levels of flooding on Cypress Creek and other bodies of water north of Houston.

On average, I would expect 3-7″ south and 4-8″ north, but there is most certainly a risk of higher amounts in spots. The heavy rains near Port Arthur and Beaumont should add up to 5-10″ or more.

Tomorrow & Tuesday

Looking ahead, no new news to report. After tonight, rainfall will continue sporadically and heavily at times through tomorrow, similar to what we saw today, perhaps with a few less breaks though unfortunately. Harvey will emerge back out over the Gulf near Matagorda, and a Tropical Storm Watch was reissued from Sargent to San Luis Pass with the National Hurricane Center’s 4 PM advisory. Eric will have a post shortly on that aspect of the storm, but please, use your bandwidth to deal with the rain and flooding around Houston right now. That’s the issue we have to focus on.

We’ll have another post on the forecast this evening. Stay safe.

Posted at 4:25 PM Sunday by Matt

15 thoughts on “Late Sunday afternoon Harvey forecast update

    1. Linda R Curcio

      I wanted to thank you do much for your reporting. I live in Austin but have family in Houston. Your posts are so helpful and informative.

  1. Jason

    Rain last night was not so bad. The real high water started early this morning around five, but there was a long break in the rain sometime in the wee hours. So far the water is high but luck has held out, because the periods of light rain or no rain have allowed the water to drop, but then heavy rains raise it, and then it drops during the next lull. My neighbor has a house on a slab, though, and got some water inside this morning.

  2. Jessica

    The Weather Channel is claiming that Harvey is going to make a second, and possibly a third landfall. Just ten minutes ago they had this on the chyron. Can you comment on whether there is any data or scientific support for this?

  3. Jason

    If tonight has less rain than last night, that will be helpful. Last night was not that bad. There was a long break in the rain and water went down. The real high water didn’t start until after 5 AM today. Since then, the periods of no rain or light rain have allowed the water to drop during the lulls and rise during the heavy rain. My neighbor has a house on a slab, though, and unfortunately they got some water inside this morning.

  4. LMM

    Reporting this stuff must be exhausting! I hope you both have a chance to get a bit of rest and time with your families. Thanks again for walking us through this disaster – although I know it’s not over.

  5. Rick

    That is a low spot and is flood prone anyway because a decline in the freeway was built in to accommodate the Beltway entrance ramps. That’s always a flood prone spot.

  6. Zed

    Reporting rainfall near 290 x 1960/6:

    to Saturday 9 am — 3.25″
    to Sunday noon — at least 9″ (gauge from Home Depot topped out)

    Street drainage – working, some exposed soil swept into street (minor)
    Ground – squishy.
    Trees – still up.

  7. Joyce

    Can you possibly slow the map movement? I cannot locate anything because it is moving so rapidly. Would be helpful to see where I am in the movements occurring this evening.
    Thanks for the wonderful work you do.

  8. Steve

    Thank you for you drama-free weather report. That is exacting what we needed. We’ve been stuck in the top floor of a house in League City since 4 this morning. The rain has mellowed and the flood level has dropped about 6 in from its high water mark in the kitchen…lol, sounds funny, but true. Clear Creek is on its way down!!! Thanks again for the great report.

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