The last 48 hours have brought some welcome change to Houston’s hot and (mostly) rain free summer as Gulf of Mexico moisture has surged into the region amid a weakness in high pressure. Those conditions will more or less remain the same today, with one key difference.
So far the heaviest rains have been more clustered over the southern half of the metro area, in places like Fort Bend, Galveston and southern Harris counties. Although we’re likely to see some coastal rains again today, there’s a better chance of development further inland later this afternoon.
We’re already seeing some coastal storm activity this morning, but as temperatures warm into the upper 80s this afternoon for areas north of Interstate 10, it appears as though that is where the bulk of the activity develop will later today. Again we’re not looking at any kind of washout, as these storms strengthen and tend to weaken in fairly short order, but some of them can quickly produce 1 to 3 inches in an hour or so. This is enough to cause some short-lived street flooding. Where lots of clouds and showers develop highs today should only climb into the upper 80s, whereas temperatures under sunny areas this afternoon will reach the lower 90s.
Thursday and Friday
High pressure isn’t going to build back over Houston that much during the work week, however the amount of moisture available for showers and thunderstorms should decrease, meaning we’re likely to see both less coverage of storms, and lower intensity. This should allow highs to climb back into the lower or mid-90s.
Saturday through Monday
Although pressures may rise a bit this weekend, we’re still not going to see the suffocating kind of ridge that dominated during most of July. This should limit highs into the mid-90s, and keep a healthy 30 to 40 percent chance of rain in the forecast for most days, primarily during the afternoon hours.
Posted at 6:40am CT Wednesday by Eric