Nicholas exiting the Houston area, and we now get a few days of calm

Good evening, and we hope folks are doing well and are safe after the passage of Nicholas. After nearly half a million customers lost power in the Houston area this morning, Centerpoint has restored all but about 150,000 as of 4:45 PM. Meanwhile, Nicholas is just barely a tropical storm, centered in far eastern Chambers County.

Radar shows the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas in eastern Chambers County, drifting east toward Louisiana. (RadarScope)

Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph, but in the Houston area, most sites are no longer reporting wind gusts, and those that are report fairly benign gusts. Nicholas is done with us, and it’s a reminder that wind and surge are issues here too. The next act will be rainfall and flooding along the central Gulf Coast. About 6 to 10 more inches of rain is possible in eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and parts of the Florida Panhandle from Nicholas as it very, very slowly creeps east across Louisiana tomorrow and Thursday before dissipating.

Flooding concerns will stay well to our east, with an additional 6 to 10 inches of rain possible between New Orleans and Destin, FL. (NOAA)

Hopefully the flooding will not be too serious in those areas, particularly those still very much recovering from Ida.

Back here in Houston, we get to look forward to 2 or 3 days in a row of calmer weather.

Wednesday through Friday

Look for a mix of clouds and sun all three days, with perhaps more sun than clouds on Thursday and/or Friday. Highs will be in the mid-80s tomorrow, upper-80s on Thursday and 90 or so on Friday. Morning lows will be tolerably in the low-70s tomorrow to perhaps mid-70s by Friday in spots. Rain chances are not zero, and it’s possible we could get a few showers or storms here or there, but those should be fleeting and isolated.

Rest of the tropics

A lot of folks are beginning to ask questions about Invest 95L, a tropical disturbance wayyyyy out in the Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 90 percent chance of developing by the weekend.

A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic has a 90 percent chance of developing over the next 5 days as it moves west across the Atlantic Ocean. We will watch this, but no reliable guidance currently brings 95L into the Gulf. (NOAA)

First, let’s just breathe after Nicholas for a moment.

Second, it appears that the models are split into two camps with respect to 95L. Those that strengthen it quickly over the next few days turn it north into the open Atlantic quickly. Those that don’t, keep it coming west or west-northwest into the islands or just north of there by the weekend. So far as I can tell, there is not one single ensemble member of 85 on either the GFS or Euro that delivers 95L into the Gulf of Mexico. Most turn it out to sea before getting to the islands. Still, it’s probably something to check in on again in a few days. But at this point, we don’t view this as a serious concern for the Houston area. Rest easy tonight if you’re able.

A final word

Thanks to all of you for your kind words of support and encouragement through yet another storm. We are grateful to those of you that choose us and share us with your friends and family. This certainly was not an easy forecast, but we tried our best to manage expectations throughout. We always put a lot of thought into our word choices and the messages we want to send, and it’s a responsibility we don’t take lightly. Certainly a few lessons learned from the ramp up in intensity last night that we’ll carry forward with us for the future too. But, whether you’re a new reader or a longtime reader, thanks for sticking with us, and we hope to be your choice during the next storm, whenever it may occur.

Eric will have our usual daily update in the morning.

102 thoughts on “Nicholas exiting the Houston area, and we now get a few days of calm”

    • New to Space City Weather thanks to my daughter. I’ve since recruited 3 others. Passing it forward 😃

  2. You guys (and lady) are truly appreciated and just do such a great job. As others have stated…we plan based upon your reports…thank you.

    • You guys are great. We rely on your forecast and have never been disappointed. Thanks for all the time and effort you put into your forecasts.

  3. Thank you both! Couldn’t do it without your forecast. I’m very appreciative of your hard work on our behalf!

  4. Love that you guys got a shout out on TV. Local woman said “ I just watch SCW and move on”. Love it.

  7. You’re ALWAYS straight forward and honest about the forecast and what you do and don’t know. No BS! So refreshing!

  10. You guys are the BEST!!! I count on your forecasts more than those in the media…THANK YOU for your hard work & commitment to Houston.

  11. Thank you for always keeping us informed and calm. Those winds though…… Life in downtown was whistling last night.

  13. Thank you for your no hype reporting! Been following you since Harvey where your reports were the only thing that kept me sane.

  16. My family and I are very thankful for all of the research and analysis you go through in order to prepare your weather reports. You gentlemen are smart, thoughtful, professional and not trying to do anything other than communicate good information to those of us who live in Metro Houston. You make living in Houston more comfortable for all. keep up the good work!

  18. I don’t know how I would get through these disturbances if not for the two of you. I don’t even turn on the TV anymore. You are my go-to’s and I tell everyone I know about your website. You make me more sane when it’s scary and I appreciate everything you do. Thank you from the bottom of my heart.

  20. It was very nice to go to my favorite watering hole and discuss what you do…almost every one is a follower of your site…Keep up the good work…most of us love the non drama of what you do…!!

  21. Thank you for your commitment , risk , sacrifice and hard work.
    especially appreciate the professional and low key nature of the information.
    Be safe . best to you and your families.

  22. Love your forecasts, but don’t you think they would be more interesting if you put on fancy rain gear and stood in a flooded street looking for some passerby to say how scared they are. Not!

  23. You guys are my go to source for Houston weather, and have been for several years. I’ve told many people about your site and the accurate no-hype forecasts you provide. Thanks for all you do! Keep up the good work!

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  25. You guys are the best! Thank you for your non-sensationalized reporting, your dedication and senses of humor!!

  28. Thanks to you and the Prayers of millions for giving you guidance, we were spared the most devasting loss from these storms, excessive human life. God Bless and thanks agiain for sane and ont overdramatic approach to forecsting.

  30. Y’all are awesome. Many more family members use you now because of the logical, unique and honest reporting. Thank you!

  31. Great job again! Appreciate your dedication to the wellbeing and safety of all who read your posts. Get some rest….well deserved.

  32. Thanks and a job well done by the SCW team. I downloaded the app and it is excellent. Thanks once again and hopefully y’all rest up! 🙏🏼

  33. Y’all are the best. Even getting up in the middle of the night to report. Thanks for the straight forward posts and good infusion of humor (when appropriate).

  34. You two are the most reliable sources of my Houston weather. Thank you so much for your work all the time.

  35. Thanks for your “no hype” forecasting! Began following you during Harvey, and have continued following since.

  36. Thank you! Since Harvey SCW has been my go to weather source. The thoughtful and people centered weather reporting is unmatched. The careful wordsmithing is a lesson in critical information delivery and anxiety reduction. Houston is better because of SCW.

  37. Thanks for your diligence and hype free messages. I live in Corpus now but read your posts everyday.

  39. The NHC 4 p.m. cone of uncertainty shows that there is a chance, however remote, that the system goes back into the water. I’m eager to see the next posting…and the one after that.
    It ain’t over til it’s over.

  40. Kudos for everything that y’all do (and do very well). The calming words…I just can’t imagine going through a weather event without each one of you!

  41. Got your web site just yesterday from a friend of mine. Thank you for your reports. Have always been partial to clarity and brevity. You guys are awesome!

  42. I was extremely grateful to get the posting at 3am when I was awake and anxious about the waves in our street and the wind. Thank you!

  43. You guys are the best. I’ve been with you from just about the beginning, just before Ike. I go to three sources for not hyped information; flight service station, NWS and you guys. Thanks for all you do to deliver the straight non-biased information.

  44. Y’all are awesome. Just want to say your way of presenting information and care for the community is much appreciated! Though the weather isn’t always predictable, your consistency brings some much needed updates and comfort, both on normal days and during crazy weather events!

  46. I was out of state but my family was at home in Lesgue City, I didn’t panic because I trusted your predictions, glad you were right.

  47. Thank you for your sane delivery when it comes to informing us about weather! It is very much appreciated. You guys are such a rarity in today’s news media.

  50. a friend suggested I sign up and she was right. You gentlemen are exceptional. Right to the point and accurate. thank you

  54. Thank you so much. I always say “Eric and Matt said…”
    If you worry I worry, if you don’t, I don’t. May God keep you and bless you. 🙏

  55. This site I’d definitely my source for a storm, but I am also a fair weather friend…. check your post every day! Thank you for keeping it real!

  56. Thanks for all that you do. Y’all are our number one weather source here in Lake Jackson and have been since you started. Keep up the GREAT Work you all do and stay safe yourselves.

    Ken, Donna,and Sarah in Lake Jackson. 77566

    • You two are the absolute best. And in a category all by yourselves for trustworthy, comprehensive and accurate reporting. My son in New York states relies on you to check on us (we live in La Porte). I use your FB posts and your app and I gave your umbrellas for Christmas presents last year. Please keep up your unequalled reporting to the thousands of us who rely on you.

  58. You guys are good. Even though you don’t exactly cover Beaumont…it’s close enough for us to get a good idea of our area. Thanks

  59. I echo everything written. I’m in Galveston with family and friends in Houston so I pay attention to your timely and down to earth reporting. Thanks!!

  60. I used to follow Eric when you were at the “Chronicle “ as the most reliable forecast available and I have been following Space City Weather since it started. Thank-you for calm, reasonable reporting.

    Suzanne Rickles

  61. Thank you all for the up-to-date information! As an international student who just arrived a couple weeks ago, I just want to say that I appreciate your help!

  64. You guys are the best! I wish you both were around in the 90’s and early 2000’s when I was a young nurse who commuted from my coastal community into the Med Center ahead of /during tropical storms..

  66. It amazes me how you guys can be so on the money yet others are so far off the mark. I’m so happy your site was recommended to me as it is now my only resource for weather. Thanks for all you do for the communities you cover.

  67. Thanks for all your hardwork the last few days. I don’t care if the forecast was a bust, I’ll take that over the latter any day.

  68. I think you guys did a great job during a somewhat tense situation – and you clearly put your hearts into the work. Many thanks!

  69. Thank you spacecityweather team for your updates! I trust you over all others during these times! Thank you for the great work!!

  70. You guys are awesome. I have the app now and read all your posts not just during storms! Thanks for the great reports.

  71. Great Job on Nicholas. I really want to thank you guys for all you guys do forecasting without the hype and fear mongering.

    My question is, It’s mid September are we done with the 90 degree days yet?

  73. Forever Grateful. Thank you for the work that you do. May God continue to bless the work of your hands, and always keep each of your families safe. Thank you for keeping us well informed.

  75. Y’all are the best source of information! It is so obvious how much work you put into your forecasts. Thanks for helping us make decisions before a storm.

  76. Thank you. You are clearly the best source of information and solid judgment that enable your readers to make intelligent decisions on what actions to take in their particular situations

  78. Thank you for everything you do …. I have learnt a lot about about forecasting just by reading your posts … Thanks .. and what’s with Katy evacuating every time there is a storm around ..

  79. You guys are really just the absolute best and have kept us calm & informed & prepared since Harvey! We ❤️ SCW!!!
    We appreciate your time & dedication & humor – especially the latest storm’s effect on Harry Styles decision 😂

  83. Mentioned this a handful of times over the years since Harvey – as a SCW supporter & Texas transplant now on the east coast with lots of loved ones in Houston, your posts are a lifeline! So appreciated. Informative. Balanced. Sprinkled with just the right amount of humor. Always look forward to them in bad & good weather. You two are outstanding. Thank you! Hope you get caught up on some rest these next few days.

  84. You guys are the ONLY ones I trust to give me accurate information on the weather!!😍 Thank you for what you do! I tell everyone this.

  85. I read you from Lake City Florida and I am amazed at how straightforward and honest your forecasts are. It helps me follow my Houston friends without panicking. God bless, Susan Philipp

  86. Excellent job fellas. The 3 scenario depiction was a wonderful way to bring awareness to respective threats. Thank you and please keep it up!

  87. You two guys are the ONLY weather report that I follow. Forget the TV people and all that drama they try to generate standing in the rain in their slicker suits …what a ridiculous ploy! You put time, thought, facts and reliable information out there for us and it is much appreciated.

  90. Eric. Matt, I agree Nicholas’s forecast was not easy. However, no other station presented the three potential movements which, in turn, allowed a better visualization of the final movement. Presenting the data and more important, their analysis may not be sensational made for TV news, but it is credible and attracts more people. I know, because I have passed the website page to friends of mine who relied mostly on TV outlets and I saw from their postings an increased reliance on the Spacecityweather.com reports. Keep up the good science.

  92. you guys are the best!! thank you for all of hard work! we so appreciate your dedication to us and keeping us informed!

  93. Being away on travel this time made me a little on edge about Nicholas, but y’all helped me through it with ease. Thank you for, as always, providing excellent reporting and plain, no hope speech for us to get exactly the info we need!

  94. Thank you, keep up the good work ! We are still struggling with the aftermath ie power outage since 1am last night in Spring-Klein. Agree, could have been worse – much worse.

  98. Gentlemen, you truly are the best of Houston. I think the secret is out about you guys as the voices of reason and “no hype” when it comes to dealing with our weather events. Thanks for being here.

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