One more round of storms to go before some sunshine arrives

After an ugly round of storms moved through Houston on Thursday night and Friday morning, the region has seen some general clearing today. This is good because several waterways, including Clear Creek in the southeastern part of the metro area, crested above their banks this morning and need some time to recede. Alas, this multi-day rainfall event is not quite over.

Based upon the stability of the atmosphere, we can reasonably expect a mostly quiet evening and probably most of Friday night before storms return to the region on Saturday. There’s not a ton of agreement among the models, but generally we think most of the action will probably be between I-69 and the coast, over Brazoria, southeastern Harris, and Galveston, Chambers, and Liberty counties. (Our concern is that this is where the aforementioned Clear Creek lies). For most of this area, beginning around sunrise or a few hours later, we expect perhaps 1 to 3 inches of rain. That’s not overly concerning, but we can’t rule out a few isolated areas with 4 to 5 inches. For central and northern parts of the region, we expect lesser amounts of rainfall, with perhaps 0.5 to 2 inches of rain. The good news is that none of the forecast models are predicting some of the extreme, 3+ inches per hour rates we’ve seen earlier this week that rapidly led to street flooding.

NOAA rainfall forecast for now through Sunday. (Pivotal Weather)

We will see some thunderstorms with Saturday’s rainfall, but at this time we do not anticipate the kinds of widespread, severe thunderstorms, with hail and rampaging winds, that the region experienced Thursday night. And the storms should mostly develop after sunrise, so hopefully we can all get a good night’s sleep for a change.

Depending on which model you choose, rains should end from west to east, sometime between noon and early Saturday evening. We still expect drier air, with lower dewpoints and sunshine on Sunday, all of which should help begin to dry out the area.

15 thoughts on “One more round of storms to go before some sunshine arrives

  1. Kevin McKinney

    Thanks for the update. It’s been over 30 years since I’ve seen a hail storm like that in the Clear Lake area. Hope not to see it again for a long time.

  2. Blackhawks Fan

    Now, if we can just get the reformate smell out of the air in the Bay Area…..it’s bad!

  3. Dave

    Great work, gentlemen. Incredibly efficient and accurate forecasting minus the drama and hype. And a huge help. From way up here in Houston County, NE of the Trinity River…Thank you!

  4. Lily Mendoza

    I would pay for this forecast! You guys are amazing thank you! I live in south east Houston beltway/Hughes area praying for no rain lol!

    1. Michael Swaim

      Yet to see Matt out standing in deceptively high water pretending to hang on to avoid being blown away. I guess you’ll have to leave that to Jim and Stephanie.

  5. JJ

    You guys provide a very valuable service for us Houstonians. I used to rely on the weather channel, then they started all their hyped up bullshit. I would pay for this service even though you dont ask for it. But the one request I do have is that you implement a weather radar. Either way, this is my only resource when it comes to Houston weather. Thank you very much for your hard work!!!

  6. Paul M.

    Your direct, no hype forecasting and commentary is a breath of fresh air. Always liked a straight shooter with no bs, that tells it like it is. Thank you for accuracy with no hype!

  7. Doris F

    Good morning and thank you for the update. It was nice to get a full nights sleep. I have noticed that the rain has not moved much from up north. Do you know what that is doing to the Brazos? Thanks again for keeping us informed.

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