Storms today, clearing tonight, lovely weather Sunday

We’re almost there, Houston. Just one more round of showers and heavy rain today, and then we can put the several five days of intermittent heavy rainfall and storms behind us. Fortunately, in comparison to our recent weather, today’s storms do not look too serious beyond their potential to disrupt outdoor activities—and I know there are plenty planned as we’ve been asked about weddings, baseball games, camp-outs and more.

Showers and thunderstorms today will be driven by a disturbance moving up the Texas coast, combined with an extremely moist atmosphere. The best chance for storms today will occur south and east of I-69, near the coast. (Under some scenarios, the heaviest rainfall occurs near Galveston Bay, and under others, it occurs offshore). Generally, I think inland areas—those on the north and west side of I-69 will probably see about 1 inch of rain or less today, while people closer to the coast will see 1-2 inches. Isolated amounts of 3 inches or higher are, unfortunately, possible. The good news is that rainfall rates appear to be more restrained today, so we don’t anticipate any of the crazy 3+ inches per hour we saw over the last four days, which rapidly flooded streets.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for Saturday. (Pivotal Weather)

Storms will likely develop between 10am and noon across Houston, with a general west to east motion that pushes them out of the metro area between 3pm and 7pm. Good riddance!

After this mess moves out, we should see clearing skies tonight, with rather pleasant weather for Sunday and Monday, with highs in the low 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. It will almost be nice enough for you to forget that June is only a couple of weeks away.

18 thoughts on “Storms today, clearing tonight, lovely weather Sunday

  1. Blackhawks Fan

    “Several five”? Didn’t realize this had been going on for 10 or 15 days… 😉

    But yes, good riddance – need to dry out. Would be great if we could figure out how to get out of these flood/drought cycles we always seem to be in.

  2. Dave Draper

    Guys, any insight on the plume of reformate vapor from the ship channel collision yesterday? Will the rain later today help drive it to ground? How dangerous is this stuff to be breathing? I don’t exactly trust the public reassurances…

    1. Blackhawks Fan

      I live near Ellington (where the rain has just started). The smell was really bad around 4-5PM but cleared by 7PM.

      Reformate is a gasoline blendstock used for octane rating enhancement that is made in a refinery reformer (hence the name). It consists primarily of toluene, xylenes, ethylbenzene, and unreacted alkanes. Basically 6-7 carbon atom molecules.

      For any hazardous chemical, there are 8-hour and instantaneous (15 minute) levels above which is considered unhealthy. The 8-hour limit for gasoline is 300 ppm, with a 500 ppm short-term limit. From the smell, I doubt we were close to either. I’d be more worried about first-responders, but they have the appropriate safety equipment.

      I’m thinking with the sun yesterday afternoon a lot of it has already evaporated, though I’m a bit disturbed that they aren’t sure exactly how much spilled. The stuff floats on water, so a good heavy rain will wash it out to the gulf where it will continue to weather off.

      I wouldn’t worry about it.

      1. Dave Draper

        BHF, thank you very much for that informative response! I’m in Taylor Lake Village area and the aroma is back this morning, although much weaker than at its peak yesterday. There are similar reports from folks around Clear Lake as well. I appreciate your details.

        1. Blackhawks Fan

          Just stepped outside and smelled nothing. Guess it is the wind direction.

      2. Susan K Williams

        Not sure what everyone is smelling – I live about 75 yards off the bay, just a few nautical miles from the incident, and I haven’t smelled anything out of the ordinary…. Was on the bay at HYC yesterday and didn’t smell anything there either. However, some folks in the Kemah area are experiencing some weird, bad odors. You can always call the CAER line find out what information is available there, or check with local LEPC websites and Facebook pages.

  3. Gene P

    I realize this is retrospective, but it seems that all the school closings on Friday (and we had a church league volleyball game cancelled in Memorial villages area this morning) were a whif. Your blog indicated the window of inactivity that actually played out Friday, so what are the triggers that bring these decisions about?

    1. Littlemama24

      The decisions about closures were made based on street flooding in the morning. If it is not safe to drive on the roads at that time, buses can’t get on the road to school. For that matter, teachers and administrators can’t get to school either. It is about safety first. Unfortunately, HISD is too large of a district to do a delayed start. What does one day off hurt really? Yes it’s a little inconvenient for working parents but wouldn’t you rather be safe?

      1. DivineMissM

        Exactly. I teach at a high school with a high percentage of teen drivers. I would not want my child driving to school in a possibly hazardous situation. Safety definitely first.

      2. ironhomeschooler

        Excellent point Littlemama, thank you for your perspective. It’s easy for me to take for granted just how big HISD is and all the factors that go into decision making.

  4. Dat

    I am currently sitting at IAH Bush Airport. Flight is “On Time” but we take off at 10am… will we be able to fly? It’s a vacation we planned months for. Still very worried

  5. Chuck

    Another excellent job, guys! Thankfully, for the most part, we dodged what appeared at first to be a “very large bullet.” I know there are some exceptions, but it could have been far, far worse.

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