In brief: We are issuing a Stage 1 flood alert for the entire Houston metro area, through Thursday, to account for the potential of street flooding. Much of the Houston area should pick up 2 to 6 inches of rainfall through Thursday, with a few areas seeing higher bullseyes. This post describes what to expect, when to expect it, and explains why this is happening.

A setup for rainfall, some of it heavy

In the big picture for the coming week, the upper Texas coast will lie between two high pressure systems. As anyone who has lived in Houston for any time knows, high pressure during the height of summer means sunshine and hot temperatures. And it also means sinking air, which precludes the development of showers and thunderstorms.

Conversely, when Houston lies beneath a trough of lower pressure—as we will this week—the opposite occurs. This environment promotes rising air, and thus all of the moisture at the surface can ascend into the atmosphere, cool and condense into clouds, and lead to showers and thunderstorms. Thus we will see a wet pattern this week, beginning on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely on the daily, with heavy rain definitely possible as we are open to moisture streaming in from the Gulf of Mexico. We cannot rule out severe weather, but it seems unlikely with the heavy rains.

To account for this rainfall, we are issuing a Stage 1 flood alert on our scale (read more about our flood scale here). Generally, this means you can expect the potential for nuisance street flooding during the heaviest rains, the kind you typically see on some frontage roads or the like. However, we do not expect this to be a widely disruptive event. Overall, I expect much of the Houston area to pick up 2 to 6 inches of rainfall through Thursday, with a few areas seeing higher bullseyes.

As a bonus, beginning Monday, we are likely to see cooler daytime temperatures, with clouds and rain-cooled air limiting highs in the 80s. That’s a rare treat in July, and definitely a silver lining amongst the cloudy skies for the coming week. As for the humidity, well, bless your heart for expecting anything but the usual Houston steaminess in July.

What follows is not so much a daily forecast, but a guide to which days are likely to see the heaviest rains.

Sunday

Showers will be of a more scattered nature today, although areas near the coast are probably more likely to see rainfall than not. Overall conditions should not be particularly disruptive so go about your plans as usual. Have an umbrella handy this afternoon, however.

Monday and Tuesday

Both of these days will see widespread showers and thunderstorms. These should be nuisance showers for the most part, although a few storms should bring heavy rainfall. I do not recommend any outdoor plans, but in terms of traveling around Houston I don’t anticipate any major impacts.

Wednesday and Thursday

The potential for heavy rainfall looks to be highest on Wednesday through at least Thursday morning. For these days there could be some delays in getting to work, and traveling around the city. Again, we don’t anticipate major, sustained flooding. But you know how Houston thunderstorms can be. They can drop a deluge of rain in a short time, so some areas will see some fairly gnarly conditions over shorter periods of time. Basically, you’ll need to be weather aware these days.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Rain chances lessen by Thursday night or so, which is why we’re presently planning to end our Stage 1 flood alert on Thursday night. But the possibility of rain is definitely not going away this weekend. Expect the rainy pattern to continue, albeit with less intensity and perhaps better odds to see some sunshine. Next week, however, does look hotter and sunnier.

A note of thanks

I want to thank Matt for covering the site all last week while I attended a family reunion in Michigan. I don’t want to brag too much, but it felt amazing to go running with temperatures of 60 degrees and low humidity. It offered a reminder that, in just a couple of months, we can look forward to some of the same here. Speaking of which, when we stepped off the plane at Hobby Airport and felt that first flush of Houston air, my family immediately knew we were home. We should come up with a word for what it’s like to experience that first taste of Houston humidity when landing here. Suggestions?

In brief: A smattering of showers and thunderstorms will be with us today and tomorrow. More scattered storms are in play for Sunday. And then widespread rain and thunderstorms will be the forecast for much of next week, with locally heavy rain, some flooding, gusty winds at times, but also cooler temperatures.

A quick housekeeping note: The latest version of the Space City Weather app is available for Android and iOS now. Dwight will have a post out later this morning explaining the changes that went into this version and how you can report any bugs (not just the mosquitoes landing on your phone inside your house). As a side note, since beginning this journey with Eric almost 10 years ago now, it’s pretty cool to see how far this has come. No app is perfect, but I am proud of ours, and I hope you find it to be useful.

Today

We have two clusters of storms this morning in the area. The first is to the west of Sugar Land, dropping across Wharton County. A second area of storms extends from Kingwood east toward Beaumont. Those should continue to drop southward and gradually weaken. Look for a few more showers and storms to form this afternoon.

After failing to hit 90 yesterday thanks to cloud cover and rain-cooled air behind yesterday morning’s system, highs will top off in the low-90s today. It actually felt kind of nice yesterday!

Weekend

Saturday actually looks like a fairly decent day overall. Yes, there will be a chance of showers or a thunderstorm. But on the whole, rain chances will be at a relative low compared to what’s ahead Sunday and beyond. So look for a smattering of afternoon showers and highs in the low-90s.

Sunday looks a little busier. We’ll have a little more moisture and enough support for more in the way of scattered thunderstorms. Lows will be in the 70s, with highs around 90 or a little hotter depending on rainfall.

Monday through Thursday

If you have plans next week that involve anything outdoors, make sure you also have an alternative lined up. It looks like a chaotic, busy week in the atmosphere over Texas. We will have numerous vigorous disturbances pushing across Texas with a large trough in the upper atmosphere. This means numerous daily rain chances, locally heavy rain, a few strong storms, and cooler temperatures than normal.

It remains very difficult to predict exactly when the heaviest rain will be. Right now I’d hone in on later Monday or Tuesday and again later Wednesday or Thursday for the best odds, but that may shift around a bit. What we do know is that the amount of moisture available in the atmosphere will be 100 to 150 percent of normal, which typically translates to at least a couple rounds of heavy rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center currently has forecasts for excessive rain out through Tuesday and has the region at least in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) each day. I would say to expect an additional 3 to 6 inches *on average* across the region. Some places may see a bit less than that, but it’s conceivable that a couple places will see more with enough storm activity through next Thursday. We will likely have to dust off the flood scale again Sunday or Monday and keep it up through Thursday or Friday. This would be primarily for street flooding concerns. Check back with us for more perhaps on Sunday.

While thunderstorms are likely, severe weather is merely possible, not likely. Any severe storms should be isolated and brief. There will be gusty winds at times with any storms, and severe or not, that may be both unsettling to you and the power system. So periodic temporary power outages can’t be ruled out through next week. I get the anxiety, trust me.

As noted, cooler weather will arrive next week thanks to the clouds and rain.

For example, on Wednesday, like some people’s taste in music, we will struggle to get past the mid-80s. These suppressed daytime highs will continue into late week before we slowly rebound next weekend. Nighttime lows will not necessarily play along, as they should remain in the 70s.

In brief: Additional rain is likely over the coming days, including a round of widespread moderate to heavy rain this morning, after some parts of the area saw as much as 2 to 3 inches yesterday. The most widespread activity will probably occur next week. Also today, we discuss the mosquito misery in the wake of Hurricane Beryl.

We had some gnarly thunderstorms in some parts of the area on Wednesday afternoon. I just happened to be driving from Pearland back to Houston as the storm over the southwest side of the city exploded.

While the power outages were not prolific, it certainly caused street flooding. The three bullseyes yesterday were on the Fort Bend/Brazoria County line, in the Bellaire/West U area, and just south of the Ship Channel in Pasadena and Deer Park. This is what can happen on days like this, so just be prepared if storms strike that they could produce quick street flooding in addition to prolific lightning and some hail.

Today

A line of heavy, but non-severe storms is moving into the northern fringes of our area this morning. Expect this to push southward through mid-morning, which will disrupt your morning commute. Give yourself a couple extra minutes this morning to deal with this.

Rain rates are generally around or below an inch an hour, winds are around 30 to 35 mph or so as it moves in, and lightning will accompany the storms. Some of this could weaken as it drops into Houston proper. But there is some pretty healthy activity on the western side of this cluster, particularly heading into Waller County and perhaps back toward Sealy and Columbus. Additional storms could fire with daytime heating after that for the afternoon but those will be a bit trickier to pinpoint. Once everything moves through, we should be able to sneak back into the low-90s for highs.

Friday through Sunday

Much like yesterday, all three days will feature at least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each morning into afternoon. Some folks will see downpours capable of producing a quick 1 to 3 inches of rain and street flooding, while others will see little. Most places should get at least some rain at some point between tomorrow and Sunday though. Look for highs around 90 or so all three days.

Monday through Wednesday

A slightly more vigorous upper level weather pattern arrives next week, and with a cold front in name only sitting near us, it should all act together to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region. Rain could be locally heavy and storms could be locally strong. Again, we are not currently highlighted for any severe weather risks, but as is often the case in summer, we could see a “pulse” of strong to locally severe storms each afternoon somewhere in the area. Usually in those cases, storms become severe and drop back below severe limits all within an hour or so.

Today it appears that through next Thursday morning, most folks will see 2 to 5 inches of additional rain. Clearly after some places saw 1 to 3 inches in an hour yesterday, it’s plausible that someone will see more than 4 or 5 inches more through next week. But it’s impossible to pinpoint who and when. So for now, assume your lawns will receive a healthy watering, and you’ll have to dodge hefty downpours at times.

Mosquito madness

Speaking of that. A number of you have commented regarding the plague of mosquitoes we have seen that started about a week after Beryl hit. I can confirm myself that these are not your typical mosquitoes; these suckers are the size of Volkswagens and mean business. I had my assumptions, but I reached out to the Harris County Public Health Department to inquire how Beryl played a role. Dr. Max Vigilant, Director of the Mosquito & Vector Control Division gave me some answers. Here were my questions and Dr. Vigilant’s complete answers.

Q:  Is it our imagination, or have we seen an uptick in mosquitoes in the wake of Hurricane Beryl?
A: Yes, there was an increase in the number of “floodwater mosquitoes” after Beryl. These mosquitoes lay their eggs in soil, mud, grass, wooded areas, etc. Their eggs can stay dry. Once impacted by water, they will hatch. These mosquitoes prey on heavy rains, floods, and weather events.

Q: Why do you think we started noticing it about 6 days after the storm?
A: We noticed it several days after the storm because that is when they start hatching. As I mentioned, the eggs can withstand drying for a long time. As soon as water touches them, they hatch. Within 5 to 7 days, they will become adults. A typical cycle can take up to 10 days.

Q: Do we expect this to level off?
A: Yes, it will be just like it did after the Derecho event in May. As temperatures rise and sunshine is present, many water bodies will dry up. This will reduce the number of floodwater mosquitoes as their habitat will dry off. We must remember that they will lay eggs in the moist areas and await the next rain event.

Q: What can people do to try to make their properties less hospitable to them?
A: People must clean up their surroundings and remember to “Tip, Toss, Take Action.”

• Tip over open containers that hold water, especially after the rain.
• Toss out those water-collecting containers they don’t need or don’t use.
• Take Action by protecting yourself from mosquito bites. (Use an EPA-approved insect repellant, wear long sleeves and long pants when working outdoors, and clear out drains.)

Now that residents are cleaning up, they should store the debris, old fencing, etc., where they cannot collect or hinder water flow.

Thanks to Dr. Vigilant and Harris County Public Health for answering this for us! As a note: With a rainy pattern continuing over the next week, do as much as you can with respect to tipping and tossing above!