We continue to slip back into drought across the Houston area, and all of Texas for that matter. Since last week’s update, the report issued on Thursday showed drought expand to cover over 35 percent of the Houston region, up 5.5 percent since a week ago. Meanwhile, severe drought has arrived for eastern parts of the metro area into Liberty and Chambers Counties.

Texas as a whole is seeing severe drought grow, up to almost 20 percent of the state now, up from about 6 percent a month ago. We’ve fortunately had some downpours pepper parts of the area this week, but it’s not even close to what we need to start reversing this process. We’re far off, and the upcoming weather pattern seems to suggest we are not getting any closer to resolution.

Today

More of the same. Look for high temperatures in the upper-90s and a few cooling showers here or there that you can thank your lucky stars, should you receive one.

Weekend

Hot! Rain chances drop from a paltry 15 percent or so on Friday to 10 to 15 percent on Saturday and 5 to 10 percent on Sunday. And even those values may be somewhat generous. Look for heat index values to tick upward into mid-100s again, possibly back to borderline heat advisory levels by Sunday afternoon. High temperatures will be in the upper-90s on Saturday and near 100 degrees Sunday and lows will be in the 70s to near 80 once again.

Next week’s heat

So if you follow the animating map below, you’ll see what’s happening next week. High pressure, or the core of the heat is established over the Southwest today. By Sunday, it will focus over Colorado, and by Tuesday, it’s centered right over Oklahoma and North Texas.

This means that the core of the heat will follow. We’re in for it next week, folks. No way to sugar coat this.

Models have generally been running too hot in terms of temperature this summer, but we’ve more than made up for it with humidity. Regardless, expect a string of heat advisories pretty much every day next week, with highs generally 99 to 102°, high humidity, and morning lows around 80 or so. It may not *feel* quite as bad as what we saw in June and earlier this month, but it won’t be off by much.

The high pressure ridging that focuses the heat may retreat back to the Southwest by next weekend, which should hopefully allow for just basic summer heat instead of the next level stuff we get next week. But I will say that some models are hinting that as the ridge pulls back to the Southwest it will strengthen further (yesterday’s 12z GFS model had the strongest modeled ridge I’ve seen on a model in my entire career). You can see that on the above animation. While extreme heat would stay to our west in that scenario, it may mean that we continue predominantly near 100 and mostly dry into the first full week of August. We shall see, but I see no reason to think any significant change will occur in Houston anytime soon.

So what of rain chances? Not great. We max out today and maybe next Saturday around 15 or so percent. That’s about the best we can muster right now, and even that may be a little generous. We know some folks, especially those that are in farming are hurting and need rain. We wish we had better news.

We haven’t written a whole lot about the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season yet on Space City Weather because there just has not been a whole lot to write about, and certainly nothing threatening to the Gulf of Mexico. However, that is likely to start changing in another two or three weeks, as we approach the heart of the season. I am particularly concerned about the extremely warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, which would support the rapid intensification of hurricanes.

In any case, today we are cross-posting our daily update from The Eyewall. This is the new website that Matt and I created this year to provide more in-depth coverage about storms across the Atlantic. This will not change anything we do on Space City Weather; but for those interested in the broader tropics, it provides much more information about all that is happening. So if you have friends or family members beyond Houston who are interested in tropical weather, this is a good place to point them to. Without further ado, then, here is today’s post on The Eyewall.

One-sentence summary

The odds of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave developing have increased to 40 percent today, but while it’s worth watching (especially in Bermuda), for now it seems most likely to turn away from the Caribbean and America.

Happening now: We’re still a few days away from the next Atlantic wave’s development window

If I showed you a satellite image of the Atlantic this morning, and I asked you to identify the area you would be most interested in monitoring for tropical development, I would assume that you’d pick the one near Florida.

While that is certainly beefy looking, it’s being entirely driven by an upper-level low, not a surface-based system. Tropical development is unlikely to nil in that case. Though, this will hopefully do something to temper the outrageously warm water temperatures surrounding Florida right now. That said, modeling is actually latching onto the tropical wave located this morning around 30°W longitude. If we look at that on satellite, we’re probably all giving it the Larry David treatment.

But! As we go through the next few days, this area is expected to consolidate some and become a little better organized. It will track generally west or west-northwest. Modeling insists it could develop. There is actually very good agreement between the GFS and European operational models and their ensembles (which are 30 to 50 different runs of the model with various initial tweaks) that this will develop, albeit not in a huge way. That aside, this is arguably the best agreement we’ve seen since Don formed. In my estimation, models have tended to be rather aggressive with development in the main development region (MDR) and Caribbean this year. So, while odds of development are on the increase and there’s good model agreement on this, we’ll see. Model odds of development over the next week are probably closer to 80 or 90 percent, but given recent struggles, the NHC estimate of 40 percent seems much more realistic to me.

Anyway, development of this system will likely be slow as it comes westward over the next 3 to 5 days.

The medium range (days 6 to 10): That tropical wave (should) swim with the fishes

One other thing that the models are in good agreement on right now is that whatever happens with this tropical wave, it is likely to turn northwest and north and eventually out to sea, missing the Caribbean and the U.S. Never say never, but that’s comforting for now. I would argue that there’s good reason to watch this if you are in Bermuda though just in case.

Beyond this wave, there’s nothing terribly exciting to focus on in the tropics through day ten.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): All good for now

Quite frankly, it’s almost disturbingly quiet on the models right now out in the extended range. It does seem like we’re entering a briefly hostile background period in the Atlantic beginning around the first day of August. This is due to background activity associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation and convectively coupled Kelvin waves. I won’t get into the heavy details here, but you can read and learn about the MJO and hurricanes and convectively coupled Kelvin waves here. Eric Blake at the NHC is a great forecaster, and this presentation that the WMO has online is really useful. All that to say that I would suspect that things pick back up again after August 10th or so.

Good morning. I would love nothing more than to report some positive news about the Houston weather this morning. To say that temperatures are going to drop back into the low 90s next week, with a decent amount of cloud cover. Or to say that our region is finally going to get a good soaking from some much needed, steady rains. But I can say none of those things. For the next week or 10 days, unfortunately, it looks as though our weather is just going to get hotter, and anyone getting some rain will feel like they hit the lottery.

Thursday and Friday

High temperatures today and Friday will reach the mid- to upper-90s for much of the region, with mostly sunny skies. And if you’re thinking that sounds bad, well, this is actually our cooler stretch of weather before things really start to heat up this weekend. Winds will be light, out of the southeast. As for our rain chances, they’re going to be low. If you live north of Interstate 10, they’re about 10 percent or less. The highest rain chances will be south of Interstate 10, and particularly to the southwest in places like Fort Bend County. These may be about 20 or 25 percent. Again, if you receive any meaningful precipitation today or tomorrow, count yourself very lucky.

Saturday and Sunday

Houston will lie on the southern edge of a high pressure system anchored over the Central United States this weekend, but we’re going to feel its effects enough that we’ll see sunny skies and highs near 100 degrees this weekend. Rain chances are probably 10 percent, or less.

Next week

If you’re wondering whether there’s any relief in the forecast during the first half of next week, the answer is no. It’s going to be very hot, and at a minimum I would expect heat advisories from the National Weather Service, if not outright excessive heat warnings. It’s possible that rain chances rebound somewhat toward the second half of next week, but given the persistence of our heat and lack of precipitation, it’s hard to bet on that changing without a much stronger signal in the forecast models.

Good morning. Houston’s very hot, but not extremely hot, weather pattern will continue for the rest of this week, and well into next week. Truth be told, as we slide into August in a few days, this is the warmest time of the year in Houston. So we’re probably not going to see any significant relief, temperature-wise, for awhile. The best we can do is cloudier days with some rain-cooled air. There is a chance we may see a little bit more of that in a week or so.

Wednesday

This week we’ve seen a pattern of isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon hours, most commonly south of Interstate 10, and this will continue today. Rain chances are about 30 percent for southern parts of Houston, and just 10 percent or so further inland. Otherwise we’re going to see highs in the mid- to upper-90s with mostly sunny skies. Winds will be light, from the south, and lows tonight will drop into the upper 70s.

Thursday

A day that will be a lot like Wednesday, except that rain chances will be just a bit lower.

Friday

Rain chances drop to about 10 percent area wide, as highs push into the upper 90s. Skies remain sunny.

Saturday and Sunday

High pressure will strengthen a bit over Texas this weekend, and this should lead to a pair of hot and sunny days with highs near or at 100 degrees. Rain chances both days will be on the order of 10 percent; which is to say very low.

Next week

The aforementioned high pressure system should start to retreat to the east next week, and this may open us up to the possibility of at least scattered showers, if not more widespread rainfall. To be clear, I’m not predicting any kind of washout. But we may get to the point where we’re seeing daily chances on the order of 40 percent by mid-week. Highs probably will remain in the mid- to upper-90s.