As is often the case with these kinds of storms, Tuesday’s rainfall totals were hit or miss. Some southern parts of the region barely saw any rainfall, whereas a few locations around town picked up 2 to 4 inches of precipitation today and saw some street flooding. Things will now quiet down for the evening, and a few hours after midnight. However, after this time we expect an additional pulse of showers and thunderstorms to move into this area on Wednesday morning.

While this is subject to change, generally a fat line of storms should move into areas west of Houston a few hours before sunrise, push into the central part of the region just before, or during sunrise and the morning commute, and slowly continue moving to the east. The storm system will probably be clear of the area by around noon, or shortly thereafter.

The bottom line is that these storms will be pushing into Houston around the time of the morning commute, the time you’ll be dropping kids off at school or daycare, or both. Some locations will see heavy rainfall that, briefly at least, floods streets and creates traffic issues. Please be aware of weather conditions tomorrow morning, checking the radar before you leave home or work, and so on. Please also do not drive into high water.

Most of the area probably will see an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain through tomorrow afternoon, which is fine for roads. But we’re concerned about more isolated areas that see bullseyes of 4 or more inches. For this reason we’re keeping a Stage 2 flood alert in place through noon tomorrow, after which time we expect to be able to lift it. Although rain will be possible for the remainder of the week, this should be the end of the particularly threatening, heavy rainfall.

If you live south of Interstate 10, you may be wondering what all the fuss is about in terms of the potential for heavy rainfall this week. Much of the southern half of Houston did not see any rainfall Monday, whereas some locations near Tomball received as much as 4 inches of rainfall in a short period of time. This is a pattern we expect to continue today. Not everyone is going to see heavy rainfall, but the areas that do likely will see high rainfall rates that can quickly back up streets.

For today and tonight I expect that most of the area will receive 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, which is more than manageable. What concerns me is that the atmosphere is primed for heavy rainfall, and some locations within the Houston metro area may quickly pick up 4 to 6 inches through this evening, and this may cause more than nuisance street flooding. For this reason we are upgrading to a Stage 2 flood event for today. Please understand that most of the Houston region likely will not see serious flooding, but the potential exists and you need to be weather aware today and tomorrow.

Tuesday

This storm activity will be driven by a combination of a very moist atmosphere as well as upper-level disturbance over southern Texas that will produce the kind of lift needed for heavy rainfall. Storms have already developed near Victoria and Port Lavaca this morning, and they should steadily build toward the Houston metro area from the southwest. By mid-morning these storms should move into the central Houston area. The greatest threat appears to be from mid-morning to mid-afternoon for Houston.

Highs, otherwise, will reach about 80 degrees in the metro area with cloudy skies. Winds will be out of the south at 5 to 10 mph. Rain chances will probably slacken this evening and into the overnight hours. Lows will drop to around 70 degrees in the city tonight, with slightly cooler conditions inland.

Wednesday

This will be another day with the potential for heavy rainfall and widespread showers, with perhaps an earlier start during the morning hours than on Tuesday. This may be a repeat of Tuesday in terms of a flooding threat, or not quite as bad. In any case, we’ll be watching things closely and publish an update this evening if warranted. Highs should again reach about 80 degrees, with light southeasterly winds. Lows should drop into the low 70s.

Thursday and Friday

As the aforementioned upper-level low pressure system starts to lift away from the Houston area, the threat of heavy rainfall should start to ease somewhat. That’s not to say rain chances will be zero, as they’ll still be in the 30 to 50 percent range each day. Both afternoons may see a bit of sunshine, allowing highs to reach the mid-80s. Lows remain warm and sticky.

Saturday and Sunday

So the weekend does not look ideal for outdoor activities. Saturday, in particular, should be cloudy with a healthy chance of light to moderate rainfall. I’m not concerned about flooding, but we may see some thunderstorms. Highs likely will be in the mid-80s. Sunday has a chance to be more favorable for outdoor activities, with lower rain chances and the possibility for partly sunny skies. Rain chances are still going to be at least decent, however, for some sprinkles or showers.

Next week

Modest rain chances likely will continue into next week as some sort of front—not a very strong one, alas—works its way toward the region. This may give us a few days with somewhat sunny skies and slightly drier air by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. But that forecast, for now, is a mix of data and hope on my part. We’ll see.

Good morning. I am sorry to say that Sunday’s forecast was a “miss” for us, in that we did not anticipate such widespread rain, nor so many thunderstorms. Candidly, I woke up and looked at the radar on Sunday morning, and upon seeing a mass of showers to the southwest of Houston said to myself, “What is that?!?” The showers also kept a lid on temperatures—with a high of just 79 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. Anyway, I believe it is important to be honest with our readers.

Sunday’s wet weather heralded a much wetter pattern for the week ahead. Most of the area should see 3 to 6 inches of rain between now and next Monday, and we’ll be on the lookout for the possibility of street flooding amid stronger storms. For this reason we are issuing a Stage 1 flood alert, beginning at noon today.

The overall pattern, in absence of high pressure, will be driven by a moist atmosphere with a series of passing atmospheric disturbances. As a result we’ll see on and off showers and thunderstorms for much of this week, and possibly through the weekend. This is the kind of situation during which you’ll need to be paying attention to conditions, as these storms may well pop up during after-school activities or the evening commute.

Monday

Conditions this morning should be fairly calm, with mostly cloudy skies and warm temperatures. However, along with daytime heating, I expect to see fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms pop up this afternoon. It is possible that we see some fairly strong thunderstorms this afternoon, from about noon to 6 pm across the metro-area, so be weather aware. Any storms that develop should weaken during the evening hours. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies with high temperatures in the mid-80s, and southerly winds. Lows will only drop into the low-70s.

Tuesday

A similar day, with muggy air and a chance of fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms during primarily the afternoon hours. Not everyone will see rainfall, but much of the region will, and some of these thunderstorms could be quite strong. Again, this activity should wind down during the evening hours. Highs on Tuesday should again be roughly in the mid-80s, with southerly or southwesterly winds.

Wednesday and Thursday

Both of these days should see partly to mostly cloudy skies, with perhaps a 50 percent chance of rain. However, for now I think the chance of strong thunderstorms is lower. Highs will probably fall somewhere in the mid-80s, with muggy air.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Atmospheric moisture levels will surge this weekend, which could set the stage for even more widespread rainfall. However, whether this transpires will depend on the upper-level atmosphere and whether we see a robust low pressure system drop down toward Texas. So for now the weekend forecast ranges from somewhat wet—scattered, on and off showers—to downright wet with fairly widespread showers and the threat of heavy rainfall. I don’t have enough confidence to make the call yet, but I do know the air is going to be muggy, and we should see highs in the mid- to possibly upper-80s—the warmer temperatures would come in the scenario with less rainfall.

Next week

After the potential for more rainfall on Monday, most modeling suggests rain chances will die down somewhat for next week. It’s possible that some sort of weak front pushes through in about 8 to 10 days, but that’s not something I’m going to bet the farm on.

We’d like to officially welcome you to early summer today. The next several days will feel more like later May or early June than early May. Not unheard of by any means, but certainly a change from what we’ve been experiencing much of the last month or so. The humidity is likely here for awhile. The heat may wane some eventually, thanks to a potentially wetter, stormier weather pattern in Texas.

Just a quick note on the hotter weather this weekend. Early season heat can be a little tougher on the body because we have not adapted to it yet, especially after such a comfortable spring. So please take it easy on yourself outside this weekend and practice heat safety.

Today

Some patchy fog may greet you out the door this morning, but short of that, it’s quiet. Much like yesterday, the sky may look threatening at times today, but most of the day will be fine. We’ll call it mostly cloudy with highs in the upper-80s, maybe near 90 in spots with enough sunshine. Storm chances this afternoon aren’t especially high, maybe on the order of 10 to 20 percent, but anyone that sees a storm later today could see some gusty winds, hail, legitimate downpours and lightning.

Saturday and Sunday

So, if you look at your phone’s weather app (including our own app!), it looks like this weekend is going to be miserably stormy. In reality, it’s not going to be that bad. Both days will feature a chance of showers or storms. But coverage of those storms is expected to be isolated. So plan for the chance of having your outdoor plans temporarily disrupted by storms, but I would not necessarily expect that to be the likely outcome. Sunday may carry a slightly higher chance of rain than Saturday, especially north of Houston.

One thing I would plan on is hot weather. Saturday’s forecast highs are shown above, and Sunday won’t be much different. Expect upper-80s to low-90s and morning lows in the 70s. And plenty of humidity.

Next week

The pattern this weekend is going to feature a ridge of high pressure about 20,000 feet above us. Early next week, that ridge is going to break down. It will be replaced by more of a trough, a cutoff low pressure system, or something “flatter” over South Texas. In simple language: The pattern is likely to turn more unsettled with rain chances much of next week.

Given the difficulty with specifics, I would say we’d probably copy and paste a forecast of clouds, sun, a 30 to 40 percent chance of rain each day, highs well into the 80s, and lows in the 70s.

The wetter pattern is expected to stick in Texas, with models forecasting above average rain over Texas for the next 2 weeks. The map below shows the days 8 to 14 forecast rainfall anomaly from the European ensemble mean.

We’ll see if that’s the case, but if you’ve been seeking some added rainfall this spring, you may get your wishes granted.