Good morning, and I hope everyone has a great Fourth of July! In observance of the the holiday, today’s post will be fairly brief, with us returning to normal operations on Wednesday. As for the weather, our overall thinking on this week’s forecast has not changed too much. We’re heading toward a rainier pattern for the mid-week, followed by hotter and sunnier weather this weekend and next week.

Fourth of July

Skies will be partly sunny today, with highs in the mid-90s. We are starting to see the development of some showers off the Texas coast, in the Gulf of Mexico, at around sunrise. These will gradually transition inland today, with the bulk of showers and thunderstorms developing between late morning and late afternoon. Your chance of seeing rain is about 40 percent. The good news is that we generally expect these showers to clear out this evening, with partly cloudy skies and lows of around 80 degrees tonight. The viewing forecast for fireworks looks fine fine, if sweaty, as is customary in Houston.

Wednesday and Thursday

The details are still to be determined, but we’re looking at a pair of cloudy and cooler days, with highs likely only reaching about 90 degrees, give or take. Both days should see widespread showers and thunderstorms as tropical moisture pushes inland from the Gulf of Mexico, with lesser chances overnight. Look for accumulations, on average, of 0.5 to 1.5 inches, with the higher totals more prevalent toward the coast. This will be our coolest, and likely wettest weather for awhile for the foreseeable future.

Friday and beyond

Rain chances don’t go away on Friday and Saturday, but they begin to diminish as high pressure starts to build back over the area. Look for highs in the mid-90s to start out, pushing back into the upper-90s toward 100 degrees by the middle of next week.

See you tomorrow!

Before looking ahead to our weather in the days ahead, let’s briefly look back at June. The first 10 days of the month were relatively cool, with below normal temperatures and plenty of rainfall. Then our pattern dramatically shifted for the latter two thirds of the month, with highs generally in the upper 90s to 100 degrees, and extremely uncomfortable weather. Overall, with an average temperature of 85.1 degrees, this June tied 1980 for the sixth warmest of all time in Houston.

As we saw on Sunday afternoon and evening, the high pressure that dominated much of the last three weeks of our weather in June has moved off, allowing for slightly cooler weather and healthy rain chances. This pattern will persist for most of this week before high pressure starts to assert control again by next weekend.

Monday

High temperatures today will be about 95 degrees, which is hot, but not as hot as we’ve been. Skies will be partly sunny later this afternoon, with a mix of clouds and sunshine. Rain chances are probably about 40 percent, with the majority of showers developing near the coast this afternoon and then migrating inland. As we saw on Sunday, some thunderstorms are possible. Winds will be generally light, out of the south or southeast, at about 10 mph. Lows tonight will drop to around 80 degrees, or just below.

Tuesday

Conditions will be more or less the same for the Fourth of July, albeit with slightly better shower coverage. Let’s call it a 50 percent chance of rain. Fortunately, it does appear as though most of these showers will be diurnal in nature, assisted by daytime heating. This means that by the evening hours, and particularly after sunset, the majority of rain should be ending. This should allow for fireworks to proceed in most locations.

Wednesday and Thursday

Rain chances will peak during the middle of the week as low pressure and tropical moisture seep into the region from the Gulf of Mexico. A majority of the area should see showers and thunderstorms on these days, with accumulations generally averaging from 0.5 to 1.5 inches, although there will be plenty of outliers. Partly cloudy skies and rain-cooled air should moderate temperatures, keeping them in the low-90s for most of the area.

Friday

At some point the rain party is going to end, and that may happen as soon as Friday. Expect a partly sunny day with perhaps a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs will be in the mid-90s.

Saturday and Sunday

High pressure will start to build this weekend, and this should lead to a pair of mostly sunny days with highs in the mid- to upper-90s. Rain chances don’t look to be zero, but they’re probably not above 20 percent for both days. It’s going to depend on how quickly the high pressure builds over the area.

Next week

The majority of next week looks fairly hot as high pressure reigns, and should peak by Wednesday or Thursday. Heat advisories are likely to be necessary once again. Rain chances look accordingly low for much of the week.

Today marks our 18th straight day of heat advisories or heat warnings. We close June on the same note we’ve been singing (with rampant falsetto) since mid-month. Heat waves are often judged by how many temperature records are broken. So have there been many temperature records broken the last couple weeks? The answer is not really.

For the month of June, through yesterday, we set or tied a total of zero record highs at Bush, two at Hobby, none at Galveston, and none in College Station. Despite the general lack of record highs, we’ve managed to reach a frequency and consistency of 110+ heat index values that is rare for this region. It’s why we emphasized that this would be an abnormal heat wave for us.

Nighttimes have been more intriguing, with seven record warm minimum temperatures set or tied at Bush, seven at Hobby, none in Galveston, and five in College Station. The lack of any nighttime relief really contributes to defining how rough this has been.

Fortunately, we are past the peak of things it seems and we can start discussing how this will change.

Today and tomorrow

More of the same. Sunny and hot, with highs in the upper-90s and lows near 80, and a near zero chance of rain. Heat advisories will likely be needed for one more day tomorrow.

Sunday & Monday

This will be the transition period. Look for generally more of the same again. Expect mid to upper-90s for highs and upper-70s to near 80 for lows. However, the new wrinkle on these days will be rain chances. Sunday looks meager at best and mostly south and east of Houston. Let’s call it a 5 to 10 percent chance of a shower Sunday. That’s better than zero, but the odds remain stacked against you. By Monday, that rain chance should improve to 20 percent or so. Better!

Fourth of July Tuesday

This will be the trickiest day, because I could see our rain chances fizzling here or being something like 10 to 20 percent again. Or, coverage could increase a fair bit during the afternoon hours, with not everyone seeing rain but some folks needing to scurry indoors for a time. Let’s call it about a 30 percent chance of rain on Tuesday afternoon, with the highest odds south and east of Houston; higher chances than Monday but still relatively low. As of now, I’d expect that most evening events will be able to go off without issue.

Look for mid-90s or a little hotter on Tuesday with evening temperatures generally dropping back into the mid to upper 80s for fireworks or other activities.

Wednesday through Friday

We get a big boost in moisture beginning Wednesday, and this should translate to more scattered to numerous showers and storms through the late week period. While it’s tough to pin down the exact timing of rain chances each day, I would say that the chance is at least 50 to 60 percent on all three days. So there’s a good chance your neighborhood should see at least some rain at some point later next week.

Due to the clouds and showers, we should see high temperatures ease back into the low (!) or mid-90s at worst, more seasonable for early July. Nighttimes should be more firmly in the 70s. Eric will be back in the saddle Monday. Until then, stay cool!

Alright, I’ve been covering Eric most of this week, and given the stability in the forecast, it’s been a little challenging to discuss much, which has actually kept the posts pretty short and sweet! We’ll do that again today, but I want to focus more on next week.

Today through Sunday

More of the same: Sun, heat advisories or excessive heat warnings, and very minimal rain chances. Highs near 100 or in the upper-90s. Lows near 80 each day.

I suppose Sunday may see a slightly better chance for a stray shower along the coast, but even that looks mediocre at best right now.

Monday & Tuesday

With the holiday weekend perhaps being four days for many of you, there will be obvious interest in Monday and Tuesday’s forecast. What we know is that rain chances will not be zero on those days. However, the higher rain chances next week look to hold off until Wednesday through Friday. Our shower chances will be about 10 to 20 percent on Monday and 30 percent on Tuesday, hopefully winding down in time for area fireworks displays. I don’t think anyone needs to alter plans for the Fourth, but it’s probably a good idea to think about a rain option, just to be extra safe, if only for a short period of time.

Rest of next week

As we move beyond Independence Day, it looks as though we will ease into more of a classic midsummer pattern for Houston. It won’t be cool, but it will be noticeably less hot. We should see fewer and less regular heat advisories or warnings. Expect highs more into the mid-90s, near average for this time of year. Morning lows will be mostly in the 70s to perhaps near 80 at times. But each day will carry at least a 20 to 40 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms to locally cool things off. Rain chances should build into the end of the week, nearing 50 percent on Thursday and Friday before declining once more.