Good morning. After Wednesday evening’s surprise storms, the majority of power outages reported due to damaging winds has dropped considerably as crews have worked overnight. The main area of concern remains in Montgomery County, where about 25,000 customers remain without power. Workers in those areas should have calm conditions as they continue to assess the situation and make repairs.

In the big picture, high pressure has edged slightly off to the west, and this will leave us open to the potential for another round of storms later today, and help keep temperatures slightly cooler. This reprieve will not last, however, and the majority of next week looks sunny and very, very hot.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy skies this morning should give way to partly sunny skies this afternoon, and most of the area should reach high temperatures in the mid-90s. That’s not the heat we’ve seen in recent days, but it’s still quite hot. The bigger question is whether we see the development of storms again later this afternoon and evening.

Conditions are marginally supportive of this, but the convective models don’t appear too excited about the potential for storms this evening. But they weren’t yesterday, either, with similar conditions in place. So what happens? I think we’ll see another storm system dropping out of the north this afternoon, but it probably will be weaker and make less of an impact than the one on Wednesday. Otherwise, expect low temperatures generally in the upper 70s.

Friday

High pressure begins to asset itself by Friday once again, so we’re going to see sunnier skies and highs in the mid- to upper-90s. After a lingering chance of showers early on Friday morning, the rain should be done. I’d peg overall chances at about 10 percent.

Saturday

Skies will be sunny again for the start of the weekend. Temperatures will not be super hot, but still in the upper 90s.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend does look super hot, with much of the region hitting 100 degrees. We may start to see excessive heat warnings again by this point.

Next week

The bad news is that most all of next week looks really hot, with highs staying up around 100 degrees. The state is simply going to bake as a really stout high pressure system establishes itself over Texas. Rain chances will be near zero. There remain some hints in the models that this pattern will finally start to break next weekend as the high retreats west, but as we’re talking about a forecast about 10 days from now my confidence is still somewhat low. But I’m hopeful.

Not going to lie, we did not expect this to happen this evening. A storm system that developed near the Dallas metro area on Wednesday afternoon moved quickly southward, pushing through the Houston metro area during the late evening hours. To our surprise, instead of weakening as this system pushed southward, it maintained its intensity.

As of this writing nearly 100,000 customers are without power in Montgomery County, and nearly 240,000 in Harris County. This is mostly due to the very strong wind gusts that accompanied these storms. An unconfirmed wind gust of 97 mph was recorded at Bush Intercontinental Airport as this line of storms passed through. To be clear, these winds were wholly unexpected even as of a few hours ago. I’d expect it to take at least a few hours for crew to get out and about and address fallen trees and other issues.

On the upside, the system dropped 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain across much of the area, which was badly needed after 10 days of sunshine and hot weather. Temperatures have also dropped below 75 degrees across most of Houston, a place they’ve not been in more than a week. I realize that is no small comfort if the power dropped out at your house this evening.

In terms of the near-term forecast, once the storms pass through your area this evening, that’s probably it for tonight. Tomorrow morning looks fairly calm, and we’re probably looking at high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s. At this point I’d expect storm chances to start spinning back up in the afternoon hours, probably peaking again during the early evening. Hopefully we can nail that forecast a little better for you in tomorrow morning’s post.

Now I’m going to go back to my late dinner—of humble pie.

Good morning. The Sun reaches its northernmost extent today in the sky, giving those of us in the northern hemisphere our longest daytime of the year. For today, sunrise came at 6:21 am, and sunset is not until 8:25 pm. More precisely, our day length will be 14 hours, 3 minutes, and 31 seconds. That’s in contrast to our shortest day of the year, on the winter solstice in December, when the day lasts just 10 hours, 14 minutes, and 2 seconds.

We’re going to feel every minute of that sunshine today, with one more particularly scorching day. However, we will see a brief reprieve to end the week, with some healthy (and much needed) rain chances tomorrow. Let’s discuss below.

Wednesday

Skies will be partly to mostly sunny today, with highs again reaching near if not above 100 degrees. However, we’re going to see high pressure start to retreat slightly, and this will open the door to a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Don’t get too excited. We’re talking about 10 percent. But those odds will improve on Thursday. Lows on Wednesday night should drop into the upper 70s.

Thursday

This will be the most interesting day of the week, weather-wise. With high pressure taking a break, we should see showers and thunderstorms developing to the northwest of our region, around the College Station area, before sunrise. Then a broken line of showers should move through during the morning hours. It’s impossible to say whether you’re going to see rainfall. I’d rate chances at about 50 percent, and these showers will likely be hit or miss, with a few areas seeing in excess of 1 inch, and others seeing nothing. On average chances should be better north of Interstate 10. Skies will turn partly sunny, with highs in the mid-90s.

Friday

This will be the second of our “cool” days this week. Look for highs in the mid-90s again, with mostly sunny skies. Another round of morning showers is possible, but overall chances will be much lower, in the vicinity of 20 percent.

Saturday and Sunday

Sunny and hot conditions return for the weekend, with highs of 100 degrees, as the dome of high pressure builds back over Texas in a big way.

Next week

Not much to say, I’m afraid, other than that the heat remains in a pretty big way. There is some hint in the models that this pattern may finally break about 10 days from now, but that’s far enough into the future that my confidence in that is pretty darn low.

Houston turned up the heat to extreme levels this past weekend, and we’ve got one more day of highs near 100 degrees with humidity pushing the heat index above 110 degrees. After that temperatures will back off slightly for a few days. Unfortunately it now appears likely that this hotter-than-normal pattern will persist through the remainder of June. And after June comes July and August, which is really pleasant to contemplate, you know?

While there is not too much going on with our local weather besides the heat, the Atlantic tropics are unusually active for June. We’ve got all of that covered on The Eyewall. While there are definitely no near-term concerns for the Gulf of Mexico, this is not exactly a great trend for what we might expect later this summer when the Atlantic hurricane season typically get really cranked up.

Tuesday

Like the last three days, today will be very hot and mostly sunny. Highs should reach about 100 degrees, with a heat index necessitating an “excessive heat warning” from the National Weather Service. If you must go outside during the middle of the day for a prolonged period of time, please drink plenty of fluids and avoid strenuous outdoor activities. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. South winds, at just 5 to 10 mph, will provide little relief. Lows tonight will not drop below 80 degrees.

Wednesday

Temperatures may be a degree or two cooler on Wednesday, but it’s still going to be brutally hot and mostly sunny. I’d say there’s about a 10 percent chance of rain showers for the eastern half of the area.

Thursday and Friday

These will be the most “moderate” days of the week as the high pressure system backs off slightly. Look for highs in the mid- to upper-90s, with nighttime temperatures perhaps a degree or two cooler. The big thing I’m watching for is rain chances. I don’t want to get anyone’s hopes up, because we’re only talking about a 20 or 30 percent chance of rain as instability works its way into the atmosphere. But this is the best chance of rain for the rest of the month, probably.

Saturday and Sunday

As high pressure builds again, temperatures should climb back to about 100 degrees each day. Sunny and hot, rinse and repeat.

Next week

Hey Eric, does it look like we’re finally going to get a break from this heat wave next week?

No.

Don’t do that to me man.

Ok, at least not during the first half of the week as high pressure remains entrenched over South Texas and Mexico. Maybe by Thursday or Friday of next week? Possibly. Sorry folks, it’s pretty grim.