Skies will be sunny today and part of Wednesday, but after that our pattern will change as a slow-moving front approaches the area and brings widespread rain showers on Thursday in addition to the potential for storms. Some rain chances will linger through the weekend, which will see a mix of sunshine, clouds, and rain chances to go along with highs in the 60s.

Tuesday

As high pressure holds sway today, we’re going to see mostly sunny skies. With a cool, light northeasterly flow in place, highs will max out at about 60 degrees for most of the area. As winds shift to come from the southeast overnight we’ll see a slightly warmer night, although most of the region is still likely to drop into the mid-40s, or even a bit cooler for areas further inland. This should be our last night in the 40s for several days.

Wednesday

If your skin has been feeling drier, fret not, as dewpoints start rising on Wednesday in response to an onshore flow. We’ll also see that atmospheric moisture in the form of some clouds, which will pretty much blanket the sky by the afternoon hours. Look for highs in the upper 60s. Rain chances should hold off during the daytime and evening, but we may start to see some scattered showers by around midnight or shortly after. Lows on Wednesday night will only drop to around 60 degrees.

Thursday

On Thursday the ingredients—increasing atmospheric moisture, an advancing cold front, as well as other factors—should come together to produce rainfall and potentially some storms. The best chance of heavy rainfall and storms will probably come on late Thursday morning into the afternoon hours, so that’s something to think about in regard to a potentially messy commute home. In addition to 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, we will also see decidedly gusty winds, perhaps above 30 mph. Rain chances start to slacken a bit by Thursday evening, and overnight lows will drop to about 60 degrees.

Friday

The front should move just offshore on Friday, and that may allow for a bit of clearing during the daytime on Friday. Right now my expectation is for partly sunny skies, highs in the mid-60s, and somewhat lower humidity. Lows on Friday night will drop to around 60 degrees or a bit warmer.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend forecast remains a bit uncertain due to the proximity of the front to the coast, which may provoke some additional showers. For now let’s go with partly to mostly cloudy skies on Saturday, with perhaps a bit more sunshine on Sunday. Both days will likely see highs in the upper 60s and lows in the 50s. Each day will also have a decent chance of light to moderate rainfall, especially areas nearer the coast and to the east of Houston.

Next week

A reinforcing push of drier air should arrive later on Sunday or Monday, and this probably will give us a few days next week with highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s, and low- to non-existent rain chances. That will feel pretty much like December in Houston feels. Speaking of December, look for our official winter forecast later this morning.

Fundraiser

Don’t forget that we’re still selling merchandise and taking donations for our annual fundraiser to support Space City Weather. It ends this week so that all items can ship in time for Christmas. Thank you!

Good morning. Low temperatures have dipped into the upper 30s for much of Houston outside the urban core, and away from the coast. With chilly conditions expected for the remainder of November, it looks like this month will be the first one since May to record a below normal temperature.

The average temperature so far this month—calculated by adding the daily high and low, and dividing by two—is presently a little less than 63 degrees. That will slip a bit this week. It seems notable that while Houston recorded an exceptionally hot summer this year, the spring and fall have been rather temperate.

We’re also in the final days of our annual fundraiser. The response so far this year has been tremendous—thank you so much. There’s still time to buy merchandise or donate if you would care to.

Monday

Our overall pattern this week is fairly straightforward. We face three chilly days and nights before transitioning to a warmer pattern with higher rain chances beginning Thursday. This morning is likely to be the coldest of the week, with lows in the upper 30s. With partly cloudy skies, temperatures will be slow to warm, but we should eventually get into the upper 50s today, with light northerly winds. Low temperatures on Monday night should be a degree or two warmer than Sunday night.

Tuesday

This is the one day this week when we’re pretty much guaranteed sunshine, so be sure and soak it up. The combination of sunny skies and a more easterly flow should allow highs to reach the low 60s. Tuesday night will, in turn, be a degree or two warmer than Monday night, with lows likely dropping into the low 40s for much of the metro area.

Wednesday

With winds becoming more southeasterly, we’ll see a more humid flow beginning later on Wednesday, but it will take some time for the air mass to modify. As a result, I expect partly sunny skies on Wednesday, with highs in the mid- to upper-60s. As the Gulf of Mexico air moves in, we should see more clouds on Wednesday night, with lows dropping only to around 60 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

A low-pressure system will driver higher rain chances toward the end of the week, with Thursday likely to be the wettest day. Much of the area could see 1 to 2 inches of accumulating rain on Thursday. This should not be enough to cause flooding, but it should make for a fairly dreary day. Highs will be about 70 degrees. Rain chances continue Thursday night, and still should be 30 to 50 percent on Friday. This will be another warm day with a decent amount of humidity, with highs around 70 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast for this weekend is somewhat uncertain as a cold front advances toward Houston on Friday, and then probably moves just off the coast. Our temperatures and rain chances are going to be dependent on the position of this front, and I’m just not entirely confident how far it pushes offshore. So for the time being, I’m going to predict high temperatures in the upper 60s this weekend, with lows somewhere in the 50s. Rain chances will be pretty decent for coastal areas, but likely less for inland areas. All of that is subject to change, of course.

Next week

Given the uncertainty over the weekend, I don’t feel strongly about next week’s outlook either. I do think we’ll probably see some clearing skies by Tuesday or so, and some slightly cooler weather thereafter. But we shall see!

Happy Friday to all! Hope yesterday was a good one for you. As a cool weather climate native, yesterday’s somewhat dreary weather was nice in my mind for Thanksgiving. But the sun is making a return appearance today, and that should yield a pretty nice day!

Fundraiser

We are in the final days of our annual fundraiser for the site. Thank you to those who have contributed thus far. If you are doing some Black Friday shopping from the comfort of your home or phone, please consider buying some merch or donating. We are greatly appreciative!

Today

The increasing sunshine today should allow temperatures to poke back up into the mid-60s across much of the area. It should be a delightful autumn day.

Weekend

Look for clouds to increase tomorrow, and there could be a shower or two south and west of Houston. A couple disturbances and some low-level moisture coming in off the Gulf will make for a decent cloud combo by later in the day on Saturday. We should still manage the 60s tomorrow after a morning in the 40s or 50s.

The best rain chance will actually come tomorrow night into early Sunday morning. The hope is that meaningful rain will clear in time for Texans tailgating, but it will be a bit of a close call. The heaviest rain will probably fall at the coast with this system. That said, we aren’t expecting more than a quarter-inch to half-inch of rain even there.

The rest of Sunday looks like a mostly cloudy, somewhat clammy day with highs in the low to mid-60s. Some lingering light rain or drizzle should end Sunday afternoon as a cold front sweeps in. Those of you attending or tailgating for the Dynamo playoff match Sunday evening should be fine. You’ll definitely need a jacket though with temps dropping into the 50s.

Next week

Break out the jackets for Monday. Back to work and school for many folks, and you’ll want to be ready with morning lows in the low-40s in Houston proper and 30s in the outlying areas.

We won’t get out of the 50s on Monday, followed up by an even colder start Tuesday. Morning lows will be in the 30s with some risk of a light freeze in far northern areas.

We’ll warm up steadily through the week back into the 60s on Tuesday and perhaps 70s by Friday or Saturday. Our next cold front is timed to sometime after next weekend. It does look like that will open up a more unsettled and potentially stormier weather pattern for us in the early days of December. We’ll have more on that next week.

On this day before Thanksgiving—since weather conditions will be fairly quiet in the days ahead, we’re going to take tomorrow off—I wanted to share just a few things that I am thankful for. I am thankful for my close-knit family; for rainfall at the end of a drought; for the teachers who have been so patient and wonderful in educating my kids in Clear Creek ISD; for cold fronts and for the heat coming on this morning; for Matt Lanza; for Reliant for sponsoring us faithfully since 2017 and on into the future; and finally for you dear readers, for giving Matt and myself your trust over the years. We don’t always get forecasts correct, but we do do our very best to do so every day.

Speaking of which, let’s talk about chilly nights, Thanksgiving weather, and if Houston will see our way out of the 60s before early December. (Spoiler: Probably not).

Wednesday

We’re starting out this morning in the 40s, although a few far inland areas such as Conroe and Navasota have dropped into the upper 30s. Skies are mostly clear this morning, we’ll probably see a few clouds later this afternoon. Highs will push up to about 60 degrees. This will feel warmer than Tuesday because there won’t be any blustery winds. Rather, look only for 5 to 10 mph winds from the northwest. Lighter winds and partly cloudy skies should allow for lows to drop down a degree or two cooler than Tuesday night, so most of the region should again be in the 40s tonight.

Thanksgiving Day

A combination of a cold start and mostly cloudy skies will yield a cold day for the holiday. Highs probably will top out in the upper 50s, with a light easterly breeze. So it will be chilly and gray. What about rain? The aforementioned clouds will be produced by a low pressure system. If there were more moisture in the atmosphere we would probably see fairly widespread showers. But things are pretty dry overall, so I’d say there’s only about a 20 percent chance of light rain from the late-morning to mid-afternoon hours. Something to be mindful of, but not overly concerned about. Lows on Thanksgiving night will drop into the mid- to upper-40s overnight.

Friday

This should be a mostly sunny, fine day with highs in the mid- to upper-60s.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday should be similar to Friday, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid- to upper-60s. Clouds will increase later in the day, and rain chances will increase by around midnight ahead of a cold front that should push into the region some time on Sunday morning. Overall accumulations look modest, perhaps on the order of a quarter of an inch for most. Sunday itself looks cloudy, with highs in the 60s.

Next week

Most of next week looks chilly, with highs of around 60 degrees give or take, and lows in the 40s. By Thursday or Friday we may see a warming trend. It’s possible that we could rise back into the 70s by next weekend, but it’s no sure thing. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving, everyone.

Fundraiser

Just a quick word here to remind you of our annual fundraiser. We’ve only got about one week left, so please consider buying some merch or donating. Thank you!