In brief: For the most part, Houston’s forecast hasn’t changed, and that’s what we’ve checked in on this Sunday to tell you. Lows in the 30s tonight across most of the Houston area, with a light freeze likely, mainly north of I-10 and outside the urban center.

Cloud cover is giving today a pretty gloomy feel, albeit perfect weather to watch the Texans. Those clouds are eroding though, and by evening, most of the area should be mainly clear.

With the clear skies, light winds, and a fresh, cold air mass overhead, we’ll be able to see temperatures drop steadily tonight through the 40s and into the 30s. This isn’t a super cold air mass, so it sort of remains to be seen how much of the area can trip the freezing mark tonight, but if I were a betting man (which after watching NFL RedZone all day, they seem to think I am), I would suspect that about 60 to 70% of places north of I-10 will do so.

Within the confines of Beltway 8, most of us will probably see 33 to 37 degrees. Between Beltway 8 and the Grand Parkway, you’re probably looking at 31 to 34 degrees north of I-10 and 32 to 35 degrees south of I-10. Outside Grand Parkway north of I-10, most places should do 28 to 32 degrees and 30 to 34 degrees south of I-10. As you can see from the map above, the core of the cold air mass shoots east of us into Louisiana with 20s for Beaumont, Lake Charles, and Acadiana. This is the type of cold weather we get at least several times a winter, so minimal issues are expected, but if you’ve got some extra sensitive plants outdoors, it may be a good idea to prep them.

But we will warm

Look, if cold isn’t your thing, we’ll do 50s tomorrow, 60s on Tuesday, 70s on Wednesday, and near 80 on Thursday. It looks like we get one more weak front before the real warming begins. Eric will have more on that in the morning. In the meantime, stay warm, and go Texans!

In brief: We’re interrupting your weekend because our confidence is increasing that a front arriving on Sunday morning will bring sharply colder temperatures on Sunday night into Monday morning. It now appears likely that much of the region will fall near to freezing, or a few degrees below.

The vast majority of the Houston region has yet to experience a freeze this season—the lowest temperature so far at Bush Intercontinental Airport has been 37 degrees—but that could change on Monday morning. For several days now it has been clear that a short-lived, but impactful front will push into Houston on Sunday. Now that we are closer to the front, however, we are beginning to get high-resolution data that continues to trend colder. It is clear that much of Houston, even within the urban core of the city, could see a light freeze for a couple of hours on Monday morning.

This is not the kind of freeze that is likely to knock power offline, or freeze pipes. We just are not going to get that cold, for that long. But this will be the first freeze of the season for much of the greater Houston metro area, and that means care should be taken for sensitive plants, and of course you should think about your pets.

We still don’t have great confidence of where the freeze line will fall, but I am reasonably confident that a majority of Montgomery and Chambers counties will freeze early on Monday morning. And I now think there is probably about a 50 percent chance that the majority of Harris County experiences a freeze. Chances are less likely for Galveston, Brazoria, and Fort Bend counties, but basically we’re not ruling anything out except for a place like, say, Galveston Island.

We will warm up into the low 50s on Monday, and Monday night should be at least a few degrees warmer. So the cold won’t last too long. And then we’re going to be quite a bit warmer for the run-up to Christmas morning.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the return of fog, and some humidity. A sharp front arrives Sunday that will bring a chance of a light freeze into Houston. After that we’re going to warm up. Will some cooler air arrive in time for Christmas? Find out in our way-too-early Christmas Day forecast.

Christmas Day forecast

Don’t worry, Christmas shoppers. You still have 13 days before the holiday. Which means it is ridiculously early to try and forecast the weather (realistically, about 10 days is the limit). Nevertheless, readers have been asking, and we aim to deliver. Just understand that you’ve been warned, and there may more coal stocked in this forecast than candy.

As we’ve been saying for a couple of days now, the run-up to Christmas Day looks rather warm. Record highs in Houston are generally in the 81 to 83 range for the last 10 days of December, and beginning next weekend (Dec. 20 or Dec. 21) we are likely going to be flirting with this range of temperatures. We are reasonably confident in this forecast because high pressure patterns are fairly straightforward to predict.

At some point the pattern will break, and we will see a more winter-like pattern emerge. In late December it is more difficult for these highs to persist in this manner. However, we just can’t say whether a front will come on Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, or even later in the holiday week. For that reason I’m going to go with a forecast high of 80 degrees on Christmas, with fairly humid conditions and mostly cloudy skies. I would dearly love to be wrong about that, mind you.

Friday

Temperatures and dewpoints are basically the same this morning, in the low- to mid-50s, with calm winds. That’s a great recipe for dense fog, which is just what we’ve got. It should gradually diminish after sunrise, but it will be nuisance until then. We can expect more of this on Saturday and possibly Sunday mornings. Highs today will climb into the mid- to upper-70s today, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. With dewpoints rising into the 60s, it will feel modestly humid as well. Low temperatures tonight will only drop into the 60s.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will be similarly warm and humid, with highs in the upper 70s. Skies will also be partly cloudy, although some clearing is possible during the afternoon hours. There is also a chance of some light showers during the daytime, perhaps 20 or 30 percent, so keep that in mind if you have outdoor plans. Saturday night also looks fairly warm and muggy.

Sunday

Temperatures will start out in the low- to mid-60s on Sunday morning, and that is where they will peak ahead of a fairly strong cold front. It will likely arrive around sunrise in Houston, a little before north of Interstate 10, and a little later closer to the coast. We could see some light showers with the front, although I’m not expecting anything at all serious in the way of accumulations. We’ll see clearing skies during the afternoon, along with winds gusting to perhaps 25 mph. These gusts should back off a bit during the evening hours.

Temperatures will drop throughout the day, accelerating during the late afternoon and evening hours. I expect lows for most of the city, except for the immediate coast, to reach the 30s by Monday morning. As for a freeze, it’s a good question. If you live in Montgomery or Chambers County, I think there’s probably at least a 50 percent chance of a freeze on Sunday night, whereas in the city of Houston and points south and west of Houston, the odds are quite a bit lower. We’ll do a short post this weekend updating you on the expected freeze line.

Next week

Monday will be cold, in the 50s, and mostly clear. We should see another chilly night, albeit in the low 40s, as the onshore flow resumes. By Wednesday our daytime temperatures will be solidly in the 70s. There is a slight hint in some of the models of a front in the Friday time frame of next week, but it’s not something I would count on. After that we’re into the warm run-up to Christmas I spoke about above.

Have a wonderful weekend, everyone!

In brief: A lovely day today in Houston will give way to a warm up tomorrow and fog and shower chances on Saturday. Our next front Sunday morning may knock temps back close to freezing in spots on Monday morning before we begin what could be a prolonged, serious warm up leading into Christmas.

Today

It’s a crisp start to Thursday with temperatures in the 40s and some pockets of 30s in northern fringes of the region. It will be a lovely day today with highs in the 60s to perhaps near 70 in spots south and west of Houston. Lots of sunshine.

Friday and Saturday

Tomorrow looks like our transition back into warmer temperatures. With clouds and sun, we should manage to warm from the 40s and 50s in the morning to the 60s and 70s in the afternoon. Some areas near Downtown or just southeast of there will push the mid to upper-70s.

Friday night will be milder with lows the 50s to low-60s mostly. Saturday does feature a return of shower chances, though if you have outdoor plans I’m not quite sure it’s anything you need to plan around just yet. The day will start gloomy with areas of perhaps dense fog and some drizzle. Gradually, skies should brighten, and with that will come the shower or isolated thunderstorm chance.

Sunday

On Saturday night, a cold front will push through with another chance at showers or a thunderstorm. The front is currently timed to hit around sunrise on Sunday. Temperatures may actually drop through the morning on Sunday back into the 50s across the area for most of the afternoon. Our high temperature on Sunday may be around or just after Midnight. It will turn blustery too with 10 to 20 mph winds across the area, higher on the coast.

Could parts of the area freeze Monday morning?

As Eric noted yesterday, temperatures falling into the 30s was possible on Sunday night. Recent model trends have gotten more aggressive with bringing colder air into the area. To be clear, this won’t be a hard or particularly dangerous freeze. However, inland, rural, sheltered locations could nudge back close to 30 degrees. In Houston proper, I doubt we get much below 34 degrees right now, but it will be quite chilly on Monday morning.

Stay tuned!

Next week

Monday itself will be cold with highs only in the 50s. Tuesday should warm into the 60s with milder morning lows (40s mostly). By Wednesday we are in the 70s. Beyond Wednesday, the question will become how warm it gets. As Eric alluded to on Wednesday, the run up to Christmas looks quite warm. In fact, over 50 percent of model ensemble members are calling for a high temperature above 80 degrees by next weekend. It appears that it will not feel like Christmas this year in the days leading up to the holiday. More to come.