In brief: A few showers will dot the radar around Houston today and tomorrow. We’re optimistic that Mother’s Day will turn out mostly fine. But next week? It’s gonna get hot, like June or July-type heat.

SCW Flood Scale

I want to start off with a quick note today. If you’ll recall, back in January of 2023, I had posted that I gave a talk about the SCW Flood Scale at the American Meteorological Society’s annual meeting in Denver. We said we might have some opportunities to partner up with some experts to improve the scale. We love the scale, and we know you do. And while it works, we came up with it ourselves. It’s rooted in what we thought worked. Well, the goal was to get it rooted in science.

Thanks to the passion and interest of Dr. Steven Woods, the director of the Cognitive Neuropsychology of Daily Life Laboratory at the University of Houston and his PhD student, Natalie Ridgely, we may have a solution. Natalie conducted a bevy of research to understand how people consume weather information. Natalie just successfully defended her dissertation research this week, much of which comes out of her work that uses our flood scale and proposed modifications to it! I was honored to serve as a member of her dissertation committee, and I cannot wait for Natalie and Dr. Woods to share more details on this in the weeks and months ahead. Natalie’s findings are fascinating and illuminating and will become a great contribution to both neuroscience research and research of the societal impacts of meteorology. And they’ll have a permanent impact on our flood scale. Congrats to Natalie! More to come.

Overnight storms

So, yes, last night we had a few hours of storms right across the middle of Houston. Many of you missed out, but many of you participated. Thankfully, they were not severe, but they certainly had some noise — and rain.

The big winner was the area between the Med Center and UH, where a max total of nearly 4 inches occurred. A secondary maximum was just west of Sheldon. Rain rates were on the order of 2 to 4 inches an hour. They were some hefty downpours. Some pockets north and west of downtown also saw around an inch or so, but for the most part it was that corridor that got soaked.

Today

We have one last little broken line of showers rolling through the area now. Some heavier downpours are occurring southeast of the city across Brazoria County.

These will exit over the next couple hours, giving us a quiet middle of the day. With any sunshine will come some additional showers and perhaps storms today. The best odds of showers later today will probably be north of I-10, probably across Montgomery, Walker, Liberty, and San Jacinto Counties. With low pressure in the upper atmosphere over Louisiana, these showers will basically drop north to south.

Saturday

It looks like one little disturbance in the upper atmosphere is going to pivot around the upper low in Louisiana tomorrow, so I think our odds of scattered showers or thunderstorms actually may go up a bit, relative to this afternoon. These would probably pop up in the late afternoon and evening hours. So just have an umbrella handy for any Saturday evening plans. Look for highs in the upper-70s to near 80 degrees.

Mother’s Day

Drier air is going to begin pushing into the area on Sunday. I don’t want to completely take a rain chance out, especially east of I-45, but any showers on Sunday should be fleeting. And overall, any plans you’ve got should have minimal to no weather disruption with mostly sunshine otherwise. Highs should top out near 80 or so on Sunday.

Next week

Welp. There’s almost always a week in May where it becomes apparent that the season is about to change. Next week should be that week. Monday looks great, with a cool morning, highs in the lower 80s and comfortable humidity. By Tuesday we bounce into the upper-80s. Wednesday? Low-90s. Thursday we head into the mid-90s. And to be honest, I would not be shocked if we end up in the upper-90s by Friday or Saturday.

These will begin to approach record highs. The humidity should also transition back above normal later next week, probably making it feel a bit more uncomfortable. It should hopefully fall short of the intense heat and humidity we saw last May, but either way, brace yourselves, summer is coming.

In brief: Good evening! Matt here with a quick update for you on the weather that has, well, escalated across Houston. I am currently writing this from my son’s bed because some of the lightning (as many of you will attest) was too close for comfort.

As of 10:30 pm CT we have a nearly stationary line of thunderstorms anchored over the Highway 59 corridor, or on either side. It’s maneuvering around a bit but not enough to avoid some developing flooding issues. There is a flash flood warning in effect for this area until midnight.

Rain rates have been on the order of 2 to 4 inches an hour in the heaviest downpours. We would advise you to drive cautiously this evening. Based on modeling, our best guess is that this may continue through 12-2 AM and then quickly push out of here. Storms exiting the Texas coast to our south should help to get that going. But there is certainly a hint of uncertainty given how this system developed into unexpectedly potent showers and thunderstorms.

We will have the latest for you in the morning or overnight if for some reason things continue to get worse. 

In brief: Houston still has a few chances for some scattered showers today and Saturday, but for the most part we are going to see sunny skies for awhile. The biggest news today is that a cool front, perhaps the final one of this spring, will slowly push into the area today and tonight. This will set the stage for a grand weekend of May weather.

Cool fronts

Ahh, cool fronts. Is there anything better in Houston than that? I mean, the food around these parts is pretty darn good. The people, when they’re not screeching along freeways, are generally quite friendly. You can find a good living here. But for me, there is not much in this southern city to beat a cool front that comes along and knocks down the humidity, allowing us to pretend we don’t live in a jumped-up swamp.

I love cool front season. I live for cool front season.

Houston got its first (admittedly weak) front of fall last year in late September. On the 27th of the month, the temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport dipped below 64 degrees. That means we’ve had 222 days during which we might reasonably hope for a cool front in Houston. It’s been a good run, but I’m afraid it’s about to end.

Today and tomorrow are going to see dry air slowly percolating into the area, such that Saturday, Sunday, and Monday aren’t exactly going to feel humid outside. It won’t be particularly cool, mind you. But it won’t be hot, either, and the air won’t feel sultry. For this time of year we cannot ask for much more. I’m also not entirely ruling out one more (almost certainly weaker) front later in the month. It’s possible. But I wouldn’t bet on it. I’d bet on summer. But hey, I just checked, and the end of September is only 20 weeks away…

Thursday

Today will be sunny and fairly warm, with high temperatures reaching the mid- to upper 80s with a fair amount of humidity. Winds will generally be light, from the northeast, at 5 to 10 mph. Late this afternoon, and evening, an atmospheric disturbance will approach from the west and this will introduce a chance of showers and thunderstorms. I think overall rain chances are only about 20 or 30 percent, and the primary time frame will be this evening or during the overnight hours. We could see a few thunderstorms as well, and we cannot entirely rule out some of them becoming severe. However, I doubt it. Lows tonight drop to around 70 degrees.

Friday

Winds will come more prominently from the north on Friday, and this will start to bring some modestly drier air into the region. Highs will likely only reach the lower 80s on Friday under mostly sunny skies. Lows on Friday night will drop into the mid-60s.

Saturday

Highs on Saturday may only reach the upper 70s, with mostly sunny skies. There will be enough of a disturbance in the atmosphere that we may see a few scattered showers later in the day due to daytime heating, but overall chances are quite low. Temperatures on Saturday night should drop into the upper 50s for some inland areas, while remaining in the lower 60s closer to the coast.

Sunday

Mother Nature is bringing the goods for Mother’s Day this year, with a lovely day in store. Expect mostly sunny skies, highs of around 80 degrees, and moderate humidity levels. Really, an A+ day for mid-May. We’ll have one more somewhat chilly night on Sunday.

Next week

We’ll see a warming trend next week, and by Tuesday or Wednesday we’ll begin a stretch of at least several days with high temperatures in the 90s with plenty of humidity. Rain chances appear to be low at least until next weekend. It is that time of year.

In brief: The Houston region will see one final round of showers and potentially severe weather today, but only the southern half of our area is at risk. After this morning, the bulk of the heavy rains and thunderstorms will shift east. We then can look forward to a pleasant, sunny weekend.

Storm status

After some central and northern portions of the Houston metro saw storms on Tuesday and Tuesday night, it is now the turn of coastal counties to see widespread activity. An atmospheric disturbance is propagating up the coast, and it will drive showers and thunderstorms in our area, primarily south of Interstate 10, with the greatest activity for locations right along the coast. Although the likelihood of severe weather is lower than Tuesday, we cannot rule out the possibility of a tornado.

Rain accumulations may briefly flood some streets, so we are maintaining a Stage 1 flood alert in place for areas south of I-10. (Most areas north of I-10 will see limited to no rainfall today and tonight). Areas right along the coast may pick up 1 to 4 inches of rainfall, with lesser totals further inland. By mid- to late-morning the bulk of this system should have moved off to the east, clearing the region, and ending the possibility of widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday

As noted above, your weather this morning will depend a great deal on how far you live from the coast. However most of the region should see clearing skies this afternoon, and this will allow high temperatures to jump into the low- to mid-80s for most locations. Winds will generally be light, from the east. Lows tonight will drop only to around 70 degrees.

Thursday

This should be a mostly sunny day, with temperatures reaching the mid- to upper-80s. There will be a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, perhaps 20 percent. Temperatures on Thursday night will drop into the upper 60s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

A weak front will slowly drag some drier air into the Houston region, and this will lead to some nicer days as we approach the weekend. I’m not sure whether this will be the final front of the season to make a meaningful impact on temperatures and humidity, but it may well be. Anyway, we should see three mostly sunny days, with highs ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with moderately drier air (dewpoints in the 50s, probably). Nighttime temperatures will likely drop to about 60 degrees for a few mornings, with some inland areas hitting the upper 50s. Again, this is not cold by any measure, but it is far cooler than the weather that lies ahead of us for the next four to five months. Finally, we cannot entirely rule out some rain chances, but they’ll be quite low each day.

Next week

As high pressure builds in most of next week looks hot and sunny. By Thursday or Friday we could start to see daily highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees, with plenty of humidity. Summer will be on our doorstep.