In brief: After a very cold beginning of winter, temperatures will moderate today before another front arrives Thursday. In addition to falling temperatures we’ll see falling rain, with the period from Wednesday evening through Thursday bringing widespread showers. The weekend still looks nice.

Chilly start to December

So far the warmest temperature in the month of December has been 55 degrees, which was briefly reached shortly before 3 pm on Tuesday afternoon. We’re going to go a good 10 to 15 degrees warmer today, as a ‘warm’ front moves onshore and briefly brings a surge in temperatures and humidity. That moisture is important, because it will support widespread showers beginning this evening, and for much of Thursday across the area.

Wednesday

Temperatures this morning are running about 5 degrees warmer than on Tuesday, but it remains rather chilly across the metro area. We should still see a bit of sunshine this morning, but a more southeasterly flow is going to quickly build a cloud deck over the area. This warmer flow will push high temperatures into the 60s across the area this afternoon (upper 60s for coastal areas, lower 60s further inland). Rain chances remain low during the daytime hours today, but by this evening we should start to see some light showers to the southwest of Houston, and these will build into the area overnight. Lows will be in the 50s.

Thursday

Rain chances will be elevated throughout the daytime on Thursday, with accumulations adding up over time. I think much of the area will pick up 1 to 2 inches, but there will be the potential for isolated, higher totals. Overall I’m not particularly concerned about flooding, but this is something Matt and I will be closely monitoring. Temperatures will probably peak at around 60 degrees on Thursday morning, and then fall slowly throughout the day as a colder air mass sags into the area. My sense is that rain chances will fall off into 10 to 30 percent range overnight on Thursday, with lows dropping into the 40s.

Friday

We are going to see the potential for some additional, mostly light showers on Friday, especially near the coast as a disturbance passes. Look for daytime highs in the mid-50s, with lows likely in the upper 40s.

Saturday

Saturday is likely to start out cloudy, but we should see clearing skies, and this will probably help push daytime highs into the mid-60s. Lows on Saturday night, with mostly clear skies, should drop to around 50 degrees.

Sunday

This will be a pleasant day, with sunny skies and a high around 70 degrees. Throughout the day we should see a reinforcing front, but at this time conditions don’t look too windy on Sunday. With the drier air, I expect lows to drop into the 40s on Sunday night.

Next week

We probably will start next week with days in the 60s and lows in the 40s, warming to 70s and 50s for the second half of the week. Rainfall potential looks low. I’m not seeing much in the way of inclement weather, so all in all it looks like a rather nice week of December weather.

In brief: A lot to get to today, including some notes on hurricane season and Houston’s chilliest day in nearly 10 months. We are going to briefly warm up before another front brings widespread rain and cooler temperatures on Thursday. Fortunately the weather for this weekend still looks exceptional.

Some news and notes to begin

End of season: First of all, we neglected to mention yesterday that the Atlantic hurricane season officially ended on Sunday, Nov. 30. It did. Truth be told this date is pretty meaningless for Texas since activity really dies off in October in the northwestern Gulf and usually, as we did this year, we can call the ‘end’ of the Texas hurricane season in late September. It was a very quiet season for the Gulf, largely due to a weaker Bermuda High allowing storms to turn into the open Atlantic Ocean. Alas that was not the case with Melissa, a major hurricane that brought devastation to Jamaica at the end of October.

Very cold day: Monday’s high temperature was just 47 degrees. That was our coldest daily maximum temperature since February 22, when the high topped out at 44 degrees. I guess it’s only fitting because winter began on December 1. Or did it? One of the eternal debates is when winter begins. Is it Dec. 1? Is it the winter solstice later in the month? For us, here, we go with the ‘meteorological’ start of winter on the first day of December. And this year Mother Nature delivered.

No more asking for support: Our 2025 fundraiser ended on Monday night. And I just want to express my appreciation to everyone a final time for the tremendous response. Once again, our readers answered the call in a major way. Y’all took care of us, and we are going to take great care of your weather needs for the next year.

Tuesday

We are starting the morning out quite chilly. As expected our region has remained above freezing, with even areas well to the north of Houston such as Huntsville, Navasota, and College Station holding in the mid-30s. Most of the rest of Houston is in the upper 30s to lower 40s. We will rise into the mid-50s today, with mostly sunny skies helping to nudge temperatures upward. (This will be our last unbroken sunshine until the weekend). Winds will still be from the north, gusting up to 20 mph this morning before dying down this afternoon. We’re going to have one more cold night, with temperatures probably 1-3 degrees warmer than Monday night.

Wednesday and Thursday

The onshore flow will be in full swing by Wednesday morning, and this is going to rapidly push temperatures to around 70 degrees, with rising humidity. We will see building clouds during the daytime, but I expect rain chances to mostly hold off until Wednesday evening or overnight. Lows drop to around 60 degrees in Houston. We will see widespread showers on Wednesday night and Thursday, as a front approaches and pushes into the region. Some of these will be moderate to heavy, and I think most of our region will pick up 0.5 to 2 inches of rain through Friday. The best chance of rain will come on Thursday, however. As the front moves in highs will top out at around 60 degrees on Thursday.

Friday

We may see some lingering, mostly light showers on Friday. Cloudy skies will keep highs in the 50s, with overnight lows dropping into the upper 40s, probably, on Friday night.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend still looks very fine. Expect highs in the mid-60s on Saturday, and perhaps 70 degrees on Sunday. Nights will be on the chilly side, likely in the upper 40s although it’s too early to be sure. The best part? You can expect mostly sunny skies for the most part. It will be a great weekend for holiday related activities.

Next week

Overall next week looks to be fairly mild, with highs in the vicinity of 70 degrees, and lows around 50 degrees. Rain chances appear to be low for the most part.

In brief: The word for today is dreary, as we are going to see a wet and cold day in Houston. Sunshine briefly returns on Tuesday before a rainy end to the work week. Some areas, all told, may pick up 4 or more inches of rain through Friday. Also, our annual fundraiser ends later today!

Fundraiser ends today

Our annual fundraiser ends tonight. Believe me, it is not comfortable for Matt and I to ask for money like this, but your support is essential to maintaining and growing what we’re doing here at Space City Weather. And this year so many wonderful readers have stepped up to chip in with donations or purchases—thousands of you. Personally I am grateful for every one, and it makes the effort we put in every single day worthwhile. So thank you, Houston, for your generosity. We go onward, as ever, into the storm!

Flipping the switch on rain

In Sunday’s post I noted that our overall weather pattern had seemingly flipped the script, over night, from an exceedingly dry one to widespread rainfall. Indeed it is possible that, starting with yesterday’s rains, our region will receive more total rainfall this week than it did during the previous 90 days. We have another round of widespread showers today, and then again from Wednesday afternoon through Friday. This should nicely dent our burgeoning drought. And if you’re already tired of the gray and rainy weather, it does appear that by the coming weekend we’ll see a stretch of sunnier weather.

Monday

I have but one regret this morning, and that is that today is December 1. Every year, in November, I look forward to using the phrase “cold November rain.” However, last month it was never simultaneously cold and rainy. Today definitely fits the bill, except for the month. Anyway, today we’re going to see cold rain, especially for Harris County and points south.

Pre-sunrise we are already seeing light to moderate showers across much of the region, with additional showers building to the southwest as a disturbance propagates into the area. One question you may ask is, where is the moisture coming from if winds at the surface are cold and dry from the north? Well, not too far above the surface the flow is more southerly, allowing for an onshore flow overrunning the air at the surface. Thus there is plentiful moisture at about one-half mile and above, where clouds are forming. Although rain totals will vary widely today, you can probably expect somewhere between 0.5 and 2.5 inches. The showers should finally clear to the northeast by late this afternoon or evening.

The other major story of the day is going to be the cold air. Some parts of Houston may not get out of the upper 40s today. Our low temperatures tonight will be dependent upon whether we see clearing skies by the wee hours of Tuesday. Regardless, fairly gusty winds from the north will provide less than ideal cooling conditions. As a result I think even the inland portions of our region will escape a freeze, but for some locations in northern Montgomery County it may be close.

Tuesday

If you’re a sunshine person, today’s the day. Expect mostly sunny skies and no rain on Tuesday. Even so an ongoing, chilly flow from the north will keep highs confined to the mid-50s. Skies turn partly cloudy on Tuesday night, which should see lows near where they were Monday night, but perhaps a degree or two warmer. So another quite cold night.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Our next weather system arrives later on Wednesday, and this will set the stage for another rainy period from Wednesday evening through Friday morning. Highs on Wednesday may reach the upper 60s, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. The day should be mostly rain free, at least until the afternoon or evening. However, after this we should see plenty of rain showers from Wednesday night through Friday morning. It won’t be wall to wall storms, but we can expect accumulations of perhaps 1 to 3 inches area wide, with greater totals near the coast. I don’t think this will be enough to cause flooding conditions. We’ll watch things closely, however. A colder air mass will slowly sag into the region such that, by Friday, highs may only reach 60 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

The upside of the rain this week is that, by the weekend, conditions should be a fair bit nicer. For now I expect partly to mostly sunny skies on Saturday and Sunday, with highs perhaps in the upper 60s to lower 70s. So if you have outdoor plans this weekend things should be pretty nice! I expect the mostly sunny skies and low rain chances to persist at least into the middle of next week.

In brief: We’re posting on Sunday because of the significant (and mostly welcome) overnight rains, which have ushered in a much colder air mass. This marks a big change from the fall weather which has come before. In short, winter has come to Houston a day early.

End of fall pattern change

Pretty much everyone reading this probably realizes that Houston has had a warm and dry fall. Our daily maximum temperatures have regularly flirted with record highs, and due to a paucity of rain the region has slipped into a moderate-to-severe drought after remaining drought free during the summer months.

For the months of September, October, and November our high temperatures have run, on average, 4 to 6 degrees above normal in the Houston region, and indeed across much of Texas. Here’s what that looks like graphically:

The story is much the same for precipitation this fall. Most of the eastern part of Texas has received just 25 to 50 percent of normal levels of rainfall. Where I live the grass has turned crispy and brown, and before Saturday night I had not seen any precipitation in nearly five weeks. This has been the driest fall I can recall, having lived here for nearly three decades.

All of this makes Saturday night’s front so significant. Without too much in the way of severe weather it brought a solid 2 to 4 inches of rainfall to most of the metro area (Katy and western areas, excepted). This is the first time in many weeks that a storm system has over-performed model expectations for precipitation. All of this points to a pattern change, and indeed that is what the near-term forecast holds.

The first half of this week is going to be really cold by early December standards, and we are going to see ongoing rain chances for the remainder of the week.

Sunday

As of shortly after sunrise, temperatures for much of Houston are in the mid-50s, and they’re likely to only fall from here. Some additional very light showers are possible today, but for the most part I expect skies to just be gray. Winds will be gusty, from the north up to 25 mph. So very chilly out. Lows tonight will drop into the 40s for most of the metro area.

Monday

Rains are back on the menu for Monday. Around day break we should see a system move in from the southwest. Rain chances and accumulations will likely be highest for coastal counties, to the south and east of Highway 59/Interstate 69. I think 1-2 inches will be the upper limit for coastal areas, with inland locations seeing significantly less. In terms of temperatures, it’s going to be cold. I expect highs to peak in the low to mid-50s. Expect another chilly night in the 40s in Houston as rains end.

Tuesday

This will be a sunny and cold day, with highs in the upper 50s. With partly clear skies we should see ideal cooling on Tuesday night, with temperatures in the 30s north of Houston. I think the greater Houston region escapes a freeze.

The rest of the week

Highs will warm into the 60s on Wednesday with some clouds. Another storm system arrives later in the week, likely on Thursday, bringing elevated rain chances to end the work week. Chillier temperatures could return by Friday or Saturday morning, with lows in the 40s.

Fundraiser

Our annual fundraiser ends Monday night. We’ll not mention it again for another year after that! But until then there is still time to support our efforts by purchasing merchandise or making a donation. A very warm thank you to everyone who has contributed so far.