In brief: Happy Easter to all who celebrate. Wanted to jump in with a quick holiday post so people are not surprised if thunderstorms pop up today, and by the possibility of some stronger storms this evening and during the overnight hours.

The remnants from a line of storms over Central Texas are currently approaching the Houston region this morning, and this will produce some showers and thunderstorms generally west of the city this morning, including in the Katy region. More isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the late morning and early afternoon hours across Houston, but there’s probably at least a 50 percent chance you don’t see rain until later today or this evening.

However, by this afternoon a weak front will sag into the region, stalling over the city of Houston. This will serve as a focus for the development of thunderstorms this evening, and during the overnight hours. Some of these thunderstorms could become severe, with the potential for damaging winds. Right now the dynamics are most favorable for thunderstorms north of Interstate 10, but I would not rule out thunderstorms anywhere in the metro area tonight and through at least Monday morning. On the Excitable Dogs Scale from 1 to 10, let’s call this a 7.5.

Rainfall amounts are going to be highly variable, but accumulations from this afternoon through midday on Monday could range from 1 to 3 inches for most locations, with the risk of higher totals. I would not rule out a few bullseyes of 5 inches or more somewhere in the metro area. This has the potential to cause some street flooding by the Monday morning commute. I’m going to hold off on issuing a Stage 1 flood alert, but this is something we’ll be watching today and update if warranted.

In brief: In this update we take a look at the forecast for Easter Sunday, which does not look too impactful for the greater Houston area. Nonetheless we are likely to see rain showers, and a few sporadic thunderstorms, on Sunday afternoon and evening.

Hi everyone, just wanted to jump in on this Saturday morning to provide a final look at the forecast for Easter Sunday (unless the outlook changes dramatically). We are still looking at a warm, mostly cloudy day today with temperatures in the mid-80s. Rain today and tonight is rather unlikely, so there are really no concerns beyond the relatively high (for April) humidity.

The forecast begins to change some on Sunday, when a weak front will sag toward the area. Most of our high resolution modeling suggests that Sunday morning should be fine, aside from the slim possibility of a few stray, light showers. Chances for showers and few thunderstorms increase during the afternoon hours for the western portion of the Houston metro area, and then spreading into the entire region during the evening. It would not surprise me if the best chance of rain for most locations in Houston comes during the overnight hours, into Monday morning, as the front stalls over the city.

In terms of impacts, most of Houston can expect between 0.25 and 0.75 inch of rain on Sunday and Sunday night, with the possibility of some sporadic thunderstorms. In terms of severe weather, the primary risk is damaging winds. But truth be told, overall, this does not look like a particularly threatening event. I’m hopeful that most of Houston will be able to enjoy outdoor activities through the morning and, possibly, much of the afternoon hours on Sunday. One can never be quite certain with setups like this, however, with a slow-moving front moving into an atmosphere with a decent amount of moisture.

If the outlook changes significantly, we will update this evening or on Sunday morning.

In brief: The first part of the weekend looks good, but we do expect Houston to see thunderstorms on Easter Sunday. Some of those storms could be strong, and that will be followed by more storm chances next week. Springtime is in force.

Today & Saturday

If you like hot weather, you’re in luck! There’s a pretty good chance we’ll hit or exceed 90 degrees today. It will also be quite breezy with south winds gusting up to 30 mph or so. Other than that, expect a mix of clouds and sun.

Saturday will be a bit cloudier. We’ll have a very mild morning, with lows probably not much below 75 degrees, close to a record for warmest April 19th morning. The day should again be breezy, mostly cloudy, and not quite as hot (but plenty humid). Highs should get into the mid or upper-80s. Shower chances look minimal, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the sky squeezed out a few raindrops here or there. Better shower chances will exist back toward Hill Country.

Easter Sunday

Sunday morning will be at least a little interesting. There should be a line or complex of thunderstorms near I-35 and the Austin area around sunrise. As those cross I-35 and move toward southeast Texas, they *should* begin to fall apart. Thus, the morning should be mostly cloudy with a couple showers here or there. As the boundary from that decaying line of storms hits Houston in the afternoon, we should see new thunderstorms blossom across the area. Some of these storms could be on the stronger side, and the SPC has us partially in a marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather on Sunday. This could yet change some between now and Sunday.

In addition to the potential for some strong to severe storms, atmospheric moisture levels will be more typical of mid-summer, so we could see some torrential downpours and localized street flooding crop up.

Eric and I will monitor this through tomorrow and have any updates for you on Sunday morning.

Next week

The cold front that will be responsible for the storms on Sunday is likely to stall out or wash out overhead. I would not be shocked to see the focus of thunderstorm activity on Monday to stay mostly east of Houston, closer to Lake Charles and Beaumont. But by Tuesday, that may swing back toward us, leading to scattered storms for Tuesday and possibly Wednesday or Thursday. This is the time of year where we can see afternoon storms blow up in portions of north or central Texas, organize into a cluster, and make their way toward us as complexes of storms called mesoscale convective systems (or MCS’s). I would not be at all shocked to see us have to wrangle that next week at least once. Bottom line: It looks unsettled.

It’s a bit early to get into potential specifics, but it does appear that next week will be active. The clouds and shower chances will hold daytime temperatures lower next week (more like low 80s), with warm nighttimes in the upper-60s to low-70s.

In brief: Today’s forecast looks ahead to warm and windy weather for the next couple of days, followed by a potentially rainy Easter Sunday. With two major sporting events taking place in the Houston region nine days from now, the MS 150 and IRONMAN Texas events, we also take a look at likely conditions for next weekend.

MS 150 ride and IRONMAN Texas

This morning we are taking a look ahead to the weekend of April 26, when there are two major outdoor events in which thousands of people will be exerting themselves outside in the elements. The first of these is the MS 150 ride on Saturday (from Houston to LaGrange) and Sunday (from LaGrange to College Station). The second is IRONMAN Texas, a swim, run, and cycling event in and around The Woodlands on Saturday.

Much of next week should see a decent chance of rain showers, but by next weekend this overall active pattern appears to settle down. So I’d peg rain chances at 20 percent, or less. The usual caveats apply to a forecast nearly 10 days out, but at this point I don’t see much evidence of a cool front arriving by next Saturday to shake things up. Therefore I think the most likely forecast is for temperatures in the mid-80s.

Unfortunately (especially for the triathletes) conditions look somewhat to very humid by next Saturday, and almost certainly we’re not going to see dewpoints in the 50s which would be more comfortable for outdoor exertions. In terms of winds we probably are looking at southerly or southeasterly winds, although how strong they will be is anyone’s guess. This is good news for the MS 150 riders, and for about half of the route triathletes will be taking during their cycling event. Good luck to all.

Thursday

Temperatures this morning are in the upper 60s across much of Houston, with dewpoints nearly to match. The mercury is headed into the mid-80s this afternoon beneath partly sunny skies, with partly sunny skies. As we have been saying, the story of the end of the week will be gusty southerly winds. We can expect breezy conditions for today, Friday, and Saturday, with gusts from the south up to about 30 mph, and possibly higher. Lows tonight will only drop to about 70 degrees.

Friday

I expect more clear skies to start the day on Friday, but things should cloud up at some point during the afternoon or evening hours. Depending on cloud cover, I think there’s a good chance that temperatures push into the upper 80s, with a few locations possibly hitting 90 degrees. So, pretty warm. And don’t forget about the gusty southerly winds. Coastal areas have a chance to see some light showers later on. Expect another warm night.

Saturday

This will be a cloudy and humid day, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s. Again coastal areas should see a slight chance of rain, but the likelihood of rain for inland areas is probably 10 percent or less. Rain chances increase a bit during the overnight hours.

Easter Sunday

An approaching front will help drive a healthy chance of rain showers on Sunday, probably 50 percent or higher. We also have to consider the possibility of some thunderstorms, depending on the movement of the front. Right now various model solutions have the potential for several thunderstorms in east, or northeast, or central Houston. So Sunday’s weather is kind of like opening an Easter egg at your Aunt’s house. You never quite know what you’re going to find in there. My sense is that most areas will see the potential for some light rain during the morning hours, with better chances and the possibility of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. To be clear, I expect much of Houston to pick up a quarter of an inch of rain, or less. But there is the risk for higher amounts in some areas. Expect highs in the mid-80s, otherwise, with plenty of humidity.

Next week

The aforementioned front will probably move into the Houston region and peter out. This means we might see some slightly cooler weather on Sunday night or Monday. Rain chances fall back a bit before increasing again on Wednesday or Thursday. I’m hopeful that by the end of next week much of the area will have received 1 to 2 inches of of rain to help keep things green outside. Highs should remain in the 80s with plenty of humidity next week.