In brief: With high pressure backing off for a few days, rain chances will be higher during the first half of this week. We also take a look at what is likely to come, weatherwise, for the remainder of summer in Houston.

Past is prelude?

As we often say here on Space City Weather, there are many definitions of summer. From a strictly meteorological standpoint, summer comprises the months of June, July, and August. In practicality, September is almost invariably a summer-like month in Houston as well, at least the first two or three weeks. So today we are going to take a look at what the region can expect during the next three months—effectively the rest of summer.

First, let’s look back at what has come so far. June, to date, has not felt super hot. However this has been masked by a relatively cool spell during the middle of the month when the city received widespread rains. There was about a week when the high temperature ranged from the 80s to lower 90s. At the same time, the city has also had more than a week of highs that reached 95 degrees, or higher. This is above the “normal” high for Houston, in June, 92 degrees. So when you add it all up, the average temperature this month is running about 2 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.

Looking ahead to July, August, and September, I rather think this is what we are most likely to see for the remainder of summer. Houston will probably see warmer than normal temperatures, but nothing too extreme. In other words, July and August are likely to bring plenty of days in the mid-90s, but perhaps only a sprinkling of days in triple digits. In terms of rainfall, the various seasonal models indicate near-normal precipitation for the remainder of summer. Hopefully this rain is fairly evenly distributed, rather than the result of one or two tropical systems. But of course that is something we cannot predict at this time.

Speaking of the heat, our partner Reliant offers a “Beat the Heat” program during the summer months to provide more than a dozen cooling centers across the Houston region. You can find a list of locations here. There is also a payment assistance program for people struggling to pay their electricity bills during the summer.

Finally, I want you to be on the lookout for a post later this morning, at 10 am. Last week I shared a tip on how I survive the summer, psychologically. You responded with some great suggestions of your own, and Dwight Silverman has collected them in a post. It’s great fun and I admire your creativity.

Monday

As we saw on Sunday, Houston’s atmosphere is a little more open to rainfall with high pressure having departed the region. That pattern will continue today, with rain chances of perhaps about 30 percent. To go along with this we will see partly to mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s. Afternoon winds will peak at about 10 mph from the southeast, with higher gusts. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

The middle of the week should have the best rain chances, with probably at least half the area receiving rainfall each day. These will be the kinds of storms where some parts of Houston quickly pick up 1 or possibly 2 inches of rainfall, and many other areas see on the order of a tenth of an inch, or two. In other words, they will be hit or miss, and it’s not really possible to forecast right now where the heaviest rains will be. Highs both days will likely be in the lower 90s, with partly sunny skies.

Thursday and Friday

Rain chances will drop back to about 30 percent, daily, to end the work week as our atmosphere becomes a little bit more stable. As a result expect mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures, with highs in the low- to mid-90s. Nights remain warm and humid, of course.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Saturday’s weather probably will be a continuation of what we experience on Thursday and Friday, but by Sunday rain chances may be on the upswing again. At this point my expectations for Sunday into next week are ongoing daily rain chances in the vicinity of 30 to 50 percent each day, with highs in the lower-to-mid 90s. In other words, this pattern of fairly typical late June weather may well continue into early July.

In brief: Mostly minimal shower and storm coverage this weekend in Houston will increase by a good bit next week. Additionally, we take a look at why this hurricane season has started quieter than most recent ones.

Hurricane season so far

The forecast is pretty straightforward today, and we’ll get into that below. First, today is June 20th, and to this point I don’t think we’ve said a word at Space City Weather about hurricanes or tropical storms. It’s a refreshing change of pace after recent seasons. In fact, the last year that we did not have a storm in the Atlantic before July 1st was back in 2014. It’s been a while.

Meanwhile, the Pacific has been churning out storms apace this season, with five so far. Of course, only one of them (Erick, which just made landfall yesterday) was a big storm. Still, the conditions to this point this hurricane season have strongly favored the Pacific. You can thank dust and wind shear in the Atlantic for one, but those things aren’t abnormal, even in recent Junes. So there has to be more at play here.

We often talk about the “background state” of the atmosphere. You have individual tropical waves and systems and such through the year, but the background state is important. Are the overarching global weather conditions favorable for development or unfavorable? So far this June, we’ve had the majority of rising air, or a “favorable” background state for tropical development sitting over Central America. Rising air is what helps thunderstorms to develop. Since tropical weather generally moves east to west across the planet, this has meant that most seedlings for development are being planted in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Sinking air sits over Africa and extends all the way across to the Caribbean islands. Sinking air tends to suppress cloud development and dry the air out a bit. By the time any waves can really get going, they more than likely end up over land or kicked into the Pacific.

Over the next couple weeks, this pattern is unlikely to change a whole heck of a lot, but we may start to see slightly more favorable conditions emerge over Africa or the far eastern Atlantic by early July. That said, there are no guarantees that actually means anything. Realistically, the next 7 to 10 days look calm and the 10-to-14-day period has no signs of meaningful change yet.

We do still expect an average to above average hurricane season; June’s activity has no real correlation to the rest of the season, so you can’t decipher any relationships. But when you can get a hassle-free month in hurricane season, you take it without complaints.

Bottom line: You still have time to prepare for hurricane season.

Today

We had a slightly higher coverage of showers yesterday than we did Wednesday, and today should be fairly similar. Most of us will stay dry, but some areas could see up to an inch of rain or so in a cooling downpour. We hit 95 yesterday officially, and we should make a run for that again today.

Weekend

The coverage of showers may actually decrease some this weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday carry something like a 15 to 20 percent chance of a shower. Doesn’t mean it won’t rain, but it does mean the odds aren’t high! Sunday probably carries a slight edge over Saturday in terms of higher shower coverage. Temperatures will be steady with low to mid 90s for highs and mid to upper 70s for lows away from the coast, with low 80s at the coast.

Next week

While this week was pretty quiet after Monday, next week should be a bit busier each day. We’ll probably carry 30 to 40 percent or even higher rain chances each afternoon, with pop up thunderstorms.

The culprit will actually be the high pressure system responsible for record heat that I’m sure you’ll hear about in the news across the Eastern U.S. As that anchors over the Appalachians, it will actually open the door to added Gulf moisture in Texas. Precipitable water (or how much moisture is available in the atmosphere) increases about 25 percent or more next week compared to today. That should help boost thunderstorm coverage each day.

The increased coverage of storms probably means we see more low-90s for highs and 70s for lows areawide next week.

In brief: Houston’s forecast remains largely the same: highs in the low 90s with a few, sporadic showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon through the weekend. Next week should see somewhat better rain chances. I also share a tip that helps me survive summer in Houston.

A beginner’s guide to surviving summer in Houston (psychologically)

There are some people who love summer in Houston. They love the heat. They love the long days with 14 hours of sunshine. They love the ability to get a tan in about 15 minutes in the middle of the day. They abhor the onset of fall because it means the end of summer. If you’re one of those people I have two things to say to you. One, bless your heart. And two, the following section is not for you. Please skip ahead.

OK, those who are still reading “survive” summer in Houston rather than “thrive,” right? I grew up in Michigan, but moved to Texas in 1991, and arrived in H-town in 1997. This will, therefore, be my 28th summer in our (fair?) city. Growing up in Michigan I had never experienced a hurricane nor the humidity that comes along with dewpoints in the upper 70s. But in the decades since then I have learned a couple of tricks that, psychologically at least, help me weather summer weather here. I want to share one of them today.

I’m writing this post now because, in some sense, our turn toward fall begins tomorrow, on the summer solstice. It is the longest day of the year in the northern hemisphere (in Houston it will be 14 hours, 2 minutes, and 18 seconds, to be precise). You probably think I’m crazy. By some definitions, this is the beginning of summer! However, it also means that, starting with Saturday, every day will be that little bit shorter for the next six months. The Sun will be that little bit lower in the sky. Accordingly we are sliding toward fall, however slowly.

Of course the hottest time of the year still remains about six to eight weeks from now, due to a variety of factors including the fact that it takes longer for water to heat up than land. And fall, in reality, is at least three months away. So this trick is just psychological. But for me, just the fact that the days are getting a wee bit shorter helps me realize that fall will come even though it is hot as blazes outside. After tomorrow, it’s inevitable.

Thursday

Our weather won’t be changing much from today through the weekend. The predominant pattern remains one of modest high pressure that will limit (but not completely exclude) rain and keep temperatures in the low 90s. For today, that means high temperatures generally in the lower 90s, with mostly sunny skies and southerly winds at 5 to 10 mph. The sea breeze this afternoon will likely spark a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but I expect these to be fairly scattered in nature. Lows tonight will be in the upper 70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We are basically locked into the same pattern through the weekend. If you have outdoor plans you can generally expect sunny skies, but you may have to briefly dodge a few showers. Overall daily rain chances are probably in the ballpark of 20 percent. Otherwise late June is going to feel like late June.

Next week

As high pressure begins to ease off to the east, overall atmospheric conditions will begin to favor increased rain chances. I don’t think we’re looking at any type of flooding, but we should see enough light to moderate rainfall next week to help limit high temperatures to about 90 degrees for most of the week. All in all, conditions look to be fairly mild for June in Houston, which isn’t nothing.

In brief: You probably don’t need to check the weather forecast every day, at least for the next few days, as our pattern looks to remain fairly consistent. Houston will see typical temperatures for June, with a smattering of rain chances through the weekend. Next week could be a little more dynamic as high pressure shifts eastward.

High pressure, but not HIGH pressure

Houston remains largely under the influence of high pressure, expanding into the area from the southwest. But this is not a “death ridge” like we sometimes see later during the summer, when high pressure sits on top of the area and pushes temperatures up into the triple digits. As a result we are going to feel “June hot” for the foreseeable future, which is to say highs closer to 90 degrees than 95 degrees for most of the area. Rain chances will largely (but not completely) be squelched this week, but should improve to some extent next week.

Wednesday

I expect today to be a lot like Tuesday, with high temperatures in the vicinity of 90 degrees for most of the region. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny. Winds today do look a little bit stronger than yesterday, so we could see some southerly gusts up to 20 or possibly even 25 mph later this afternoon. I expect we will see some isolated showers and thunderstorms pop up this afternoon, but I would put chances at perhaps 10 percent or a only a touch higher. Lows tonight drop into the upper 70s.

Thursday and Friday

These days will be similar, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures probably slotting in somewhere between 90 and 93 degrees. I think wind gusts will be a little bit lower, but rain chances a little bit higher. On Thursday, the Juneteenth holiday, there will perhaps be a 30 percent chance of rain, mostly during the afternoon, and maybe nearly that high on Friday. For the most part these should be quickly passing showers. Nights remain warm and humid.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks more or less the same: highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees, mostly sunny skies, and plenty of humidity. I do expect we’ll continue to see some afternoon showers and thunderstorms, driven by the sea breeze. But whether these are isolated, or reach the point where they hit say 30 percent of the area, I cannot really say with confidence.

Next week

At some point next week the ridge will shift eastward, and as this happens our atmosphere will open up to somewhat better rain chances. Whether this happens by Monday or Tuesday, or later in the week, is difficult to predict. Temperatures, regardless, should remain in the range of 90 degrees. And hey, the longer we get into summer without a sustained stretch of temperatures in the mid- or upper-90s, the better to me.