In brief: This post offers a look back at our very warm fall, and asks whether this warmer pattern is likely to carry over into the winter. Spoiler: the answer is most likely yes. However that doesn’t entirely preclude one or two sharp cold snaps this winter. At the end of the post, be sure and check out some winterization tips for your home from our partner, Reliant.

So far this fall in Houston has not felt very fall-like, especially the daytime temperatures. I did a little bit of digging this morning, and found that in all of its records dating back more than 120 years, Houston has never had a fall this warm, at least through early November. In this case, I’m defining fall in the meteorological sense, the months of September, October, and November.

This year, the average high temperature from September 1 to November 7 has been 90.7 degrees. In case you were wondering, no, the average high temperature for this period has never been above 90 degrees before in Houston. The graphic below, for simplicity’s sake, only shows the average high in Houston since 1970, when the city’s official temperature station moved to Bush Intercontinental Airport. But the bottom line is that, in our recorded history, Houston has never been this hot during the fall. And yes, this is the type of pattern we would expect in a warming world.

The question then, is this: If fall has been so warm, can we have any expectation of a meaningful winter? Will it snow? Will it freeze? Here, then, is our winter outlook for the period of December, January, and February.

Winter outlook

We’ll start with La Niña, since forecasters are fairly confident that at least a modest cooling of the Pacific equatorial waters will set in during the coming months. The threshold for La Niña is -0.5 degrees C, and this is expected to persist during the winter months.

When we see La Niña developing during the winter months for the northern hemisphere, that tends to have fairly predictable effects for the United States. In Texas that means warmer-than-normal temperatures and drier weather. Essentially, we can expect more of the fairly shallow fronts that Houston has experienced so far this fall, with only glancing blows of cooler air.

In terms of precipitation, this generally calmer pattern should also lead to lower-than-normal rainfall. That’s not ideal, since parts of our area are still in a moderate drought. However, our rains over the last week, and additional showers this weekend, leave us in a lot better posture than we were before. The bottom line is that we can generally expect a mild and dry winter.

However—and there’s always a but in meteorology, it seems—there is one caveat to this forecast. Because of the way this pattern sets up, it will block much of the colder Arctic and Canadian air from the lower United States for most of the winter. But that does not exclude the pattern breaking one or two times. If that happens, and it probably will at least once this winter, there will be a large pool of much colder air available to dip down into the southern United States, including Texas.

So just because we anticipate a mild winter, it does not necessary mean we won’t see a freeze, or even a hard freeze with some freezing rain or snow from an Arctic blast. Finally, since I know someone is going to ask it, no the landfall of Hurricane Beryl this summer does not necessarily mean it’s going to snow this winter. We looked into that old wives’ tale a few years ago, and found the odds of snow in a post-hurricane winter are perfectly identical to the odds of snow in any other winter. On average we snow about once every four years.

A message from Reliant

Now is a great time to prepare your home for cooler seasons and prioritize HVAC and home maintenance. Similar to summer, a few conscious choices can make a big difference in your winter electricity bill.

These simple home improvement projects can be done now before winter arrives:

• Get an annual heater tune-up. Make sure your furnace or heat pump is clean and in good working order, so that it can run as efficiently as possible.
• Seal air leaks, commonly around windows, doors, and attics. Weatherstrip exterior doors and add caulk to windows. This helps keep indoor air in and outdoor air out.
• Install an electric water heater timer. This can prevent your water heater from running when you don’t need it.
• Inspect insulation. The best way is to hire a professional to check the insulation throughout your house. If needed, add more to better regulate your home’s temperature and reduce heating costs.
• Have your chimney inspected. Plus, be sure to keep the chimney damper closed when it is not in use.

Reliant provides 24/7 support to customers via phone and online chat. Looking for more winter tips to lower your electricity bill? Visit reliant.com/wintertips.

In brief: Houston’s record warmth may relax some as showers today and a cool front tomorrow disrupt things. Another, slightly stronger cool front may be in the cards by Wednesday. This should introduce some temperature variability to the picture at least!

A couple quick housekeeping notes. I (Matt) will be at Fluff Bake Bar tomorrow for their Saturday bake sale! Come get some yummy (weather themed) goodies before they sell out! Also, our annual fundraiser will begin next week, so please check back Monday for more!

Houston hit a record high of 89° yesterday, tying the mark last set way back in 2018. This was our sixth tied or set record high since October 1st. We also set a new record warm minimum temperature of 74 degrees, besting the 1989 record of 72 degrees. This was the third record warm minimum this month. We have some variability in the forecast at least, with a cold front that flirts with us this weekend, followed by perhaps a more substantial front next week.

Today

In the meantime, more of the same. It will be warm and quite humid again today. We’ve already got scattered showers peppered on the radar, mainly in the western half of the area.

Look for this to continue with perhaps more of a gradual north and northwest focus to things today. Whatever the case, keep an umbrella handy in case one passes through. Highs in the 80s but a bit less warm than yesterday.

Excessive rainfall risk is around a level 2 of 4, or a slight risk for areas north and west of Houston today and a 1 of 4, marginal risk in Houston and south. It’s possible that one or two storms become strong to severe in the Brazos Valley in particular with gusty winds or hail possible.

Weekend cold front

The cold front will reach the Brazos Valley by about Midnight tonight, Houston by sunrise or so, and the coast by 8 or 9 AM on Saturday. Additional showers, downpours, or rumbles of thunder could accompany the front overnight. You will notice a difference behind the front, with humidity falling off a bit and temperatures noticeably cooler. Once the cool front hits the Beaumont area, it will likely stall. So expect showers or storms around tomorrow east of Houston.

On Sunday, there opens up a little bit of uncertainty, as the front should stall out or wash out to our east, leaving us with a slight chance of showers or a thunderstorm. Some of the latest trends seem to keep us mostly dry though. I suspect Sunday will probably be a fine day, but Eric and I will watch things in case something changes. Highs both days will be in the 70s to perhaps near 80 degrees with morning lows in the 60s to near 70 degrees.

Next week

We may get a slight assist from Rafael on Monday with generally offshore winds helping to keep humidity low. The humidity may inch back up on Tuesday. Expect sun and just a few clouds. Highs will be in the 80s with morning lows in the 60s. A shower chance re-enters the forecast Tuesday afternoon. Lows Tuesday night will be in the 60s to perhaps near 70 ahead of the next cold front. That looks to plow through Wednesday around midday, knocking our temperatures back a bit.

We should see a couple days of cooler temperatures in the wake of that front before things warm back up again next weekend. Another front may be in the cards after next weekend. We’ll see. Eric explained yesterday why our fronts have lacked teeth so far this year. No sign of that changing in the foreseeable future.

Tropics

If you want to ask about Rafael and what the heck it’s doing, don’t even bother.

In all seriousness, Rafael is being steered by high pressure over the Southeast, but as it encounters dry air, wind shear, and approaching cold fronts, it will likely do some funky maneuvers over the open water before eventually ending up as a depression or remnant low in the Bay of Campeche next week. Check our companion site, The Eyewall for more.

In brief: Today’s post discusses the ‘why’ of yet another weak front on the way for Houston this weekend, and the potential for some healthy rain chances on Friday night and Saturday morning as it pushes into the region. Sunday and the first half of next week should bring fair weather before another, stronger front likely arrives about a week from now.

Why have we been getting weak fronts?

So far this fall we’ve yet to really get a strong cold front, which brings in a concerted push of colder and drier air down from the north and northwest. I call these “in-your-face” fronts, which you can literally stand outside and feel as they move in. One of the reasons for the lack of these fronts is that the overall pattern has favored glancing blows, which bring in more Pacific air rather than dragging colder Canadian air down into the region.

The GIF image below showcases what will happen this weekend, when a very weak front arrives. The dark blue area over New Mexico is the low-pressure system in the upper level of the atmosphere what will drive the front. Instead of moving due west, it instead goes across the Midwest of the United States and ends up in Michigan by Sunday. This we are getting the tail end of the front’s energy, rather than its full impact. And this translates into a weak push of cooler and drier air.

Thursday

“Low” temperatures this morning across the Houston area are generally in the mid- to upper-70s, which are running nearly 20 degrees above normal. This is because the earlier week front that moved offshore has moved back onshore as a warm front, so we’re feeling the influence of the Gulf of Mexico. We saw some light, patchy showers overnight, but most of today should be rain-free, with partly sunny skies. Expect high temperatures in the low- to mid-80s. Winds will be light, generally from the east, at 5 to 10 mph. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s.

Friday

This will be another warm, and humid day. However, skies will be mostly cloudy, and we’ll see increasing rain chances during the afternoon hours. As a front approaches, and meshes with ample moisture in the atmosphere, we’ll see very healthy rain chances on Friday night into Saturday. We don’t anticipate any flooding, but if you have plans to be out and about on Friday evening or night, be prepared for the possibility of getting splashed on. Friday night will be warm and humid as well.

Saturday

As a weak front moves into the region, we’ll continue to see fairly decent rain chances on Saturday morning, probably about 50 percent area wide. With mostly cloudy skies, we can probably expect to see high temperatures in the upper 70s, with shower activity waning during the afternoon and evening hours—but we cannot rule out some isolated showers during this time period. Lows on Saturday night should get down to about 70 degrees.

Sunday

We should finally see a little (emphasis on little) bit of drier air on Sunday, but there’s still the potential for some isolated showers during the morning hours at least. Expect partly sunny skies during the afternoon hours, with high temperatures in the vicinity of 80 degrees. Lows on Sunday night should get into the 60s for most of Houston, which is probably about as best we can do with a dying front like this.

Next week

The first half of next week should see mostly sunny skies, with days in the mid-80s and nights in the upper-60s for the most part. Humidity will be present, but not excessive with slightly lower dewpoints. A stronger front looks likely to move in by Wednesday or so, but we’ll have to wait for the finer details with how cool things get. I’m hoping for some nights in the 50s, which is normal for this time of year.

Tropics

Hurricane Rafael crossed Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, and it is now moving toward the central Gulf of Mexico. Eventually it is likely to be rebuffed by high pressure and steered southward toward Mexico. As we’ve been saying for some time, this system is of no real concern to Texas.

In brief: I hope you enjoyed the spell of slightly drier air overnight, because we’re already seeing dewpoints start to rise this morning. The front that pushed through on Tuesday will return this evening as a warm front. Another front arrives Friday night, bringing a decent chance of showers heading into the weekend.

Houston rainfall

We’ve made much of the emerging drought across the greater Houston region in recent weeks, with parts of the area reaching ‘severe’ drought levels after a very dry September and October, along with lots of sunshine and abnormally hot days to speed evaporation. So the prospect of rain to end October and start November was a refreshing one, even if it did lead to some minor flooding inconveniences on Houston roadways.

So how did we do? As the rain gauge map from the Harris County Flood Warning System shows, the vast majority of our region picked up between 1.5 and 4 inches of rainfall over the last week, with some locations in southwest Houston even seeing 6 to 8 inches. This was exactly the kind of rainfall the Houston area needed to pick up before the onset of winter to really help out our soils and foliage. We’ll get official information about the drought status on Thursday, but we’ve definitely improved our situation, especially with less rain needed during shorter days with a lower Sun angle.

Wednesday

We’re holding on to some dry air this morning, but dewpoints will begin to rise pretty quickly today. By this afternoon or evening, pretty much everyone is going to feel Houston humid once again. Skies will be sunny today, with a light northerly wind, and high temperatures in the upper 70s to 80 degrees. With the more humid air in place, low temperatures on Wednesday night will only fall to around 70 degrees in Houston.

Thursday and Friday

Rain chances return to the forecast on Wednesday night, and we’ll see something on the order of a 1-in-3 chance of light to moderate showers on both Thursday and Friday. Both days will be mostly cloudy, with humid air, and highs around 80 degrees or a touch warmer. So we’re going back to a pretty warm and humid pattern. Some modest change may arrive on Friday night, in the form of a weak front.

Saturday and Sunday

Our region’s weather for the weekend depends on the impacts of said front, which is likely to limp into the area on its last legs Friday night or Saturday. I expect this front to bring at least some scattered showers with it on Friday night into Saturday morning, and possibly some thunderstorms. Rain chances appear best before sunrise on Saturday, but showers could linger into the daytime hours. Highs on Saturday are likely to reach about 80 degrees, with slightly drier air, and lows Saturday night dropping into the 60s. Sunday again will be in the vicinity of 80 degrees, with a slight chance of showers. Lows on Sunday night will likely drop into the 60s, although it’s difficult to predict how far into the 60s.

Next week

Veterans Day should have fair weather, with sunny skies and highs around 80 degrees. There’s a slight chance of some daytime showers. Tuesday and Wednesday also look warm and fairly humid before the probable arrival of a stronger front on Wednesday or Thursday. The details are still uneven, but the signal for colder and drier air is becoming more convincing.

Tropics

You may have noticed that Hurricane Rafael formed on Tuesday, and should move into the Gulf of Mexico today where it will continue trucking northwest toward the central Gulf. If this were August or September, we’d definitely be on high alert for some tropical activity. But my friends, this is November. And although this has been an extremely warm year for sea surface temperatures, the Gulf is nonetheless going to be pretty hostile to Rafael in terms of dry air and shear as we get toward the weekend.

Put more succinctly, we can expect Rafael to move northwest into the central Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. However, as it does so, it’s probably going to get chopped up by those hostile conditions I mentioned above. My sense is that Rafael eventually succumbs to these conditions and peters out in the Gulf before reaching land, but the bottom line for Texas is that we should have minimal concerns about the system at this time. We’ll of course alert you if that changes.