In brief: In today’s post we explore the very warm highs of the region’s forecast, including the potential for an unprecedented 90-degree day in November. After heat on Friday and Saturday the region will experience a sharp cool down as a front arrives to push lows down to around 40 degrees.
90 in November?
In its long history Houston has never recorded a temperature of 90 degrees, or higher, in November. This is because days are shorter, the Sun angle is lower, and generally we are seeing regular fronts that bring cooler air into the region. However due to a combination of uncharacteristic warmth and compressional heating, it is possible that we could hit 90 degrees on Friday or Saturday at the city’s official monitoring station at Bush Intercontinental Airport. It will be close, and we’ll be monitoring things.
City of Houston November climate details. Note the “Record High Max” column. (National Weather Service)
Houston may hit 40 degrees on schedule this year
Conversely, our region is forecast to have its coldest nights of the season, so far, next Monday and Tuesday mornings. There is a decent chance, probably at least 50 percent I would guess, that the city’s official weather station at Bush Intercontinental Airport will hit 40 degrees. Naturally, being a weather nerd, I wondered whether that was early. So I checked the data. Answer? It would be, if only slightly. Based on data going back to 1889, the average date of the city’s first 40-degree (or cooler) temperature reading is November 13th. (Next Monday is the 10th, and Tuesday is the 11th).
Thursday
We are seeing fog develop across the region this morning, and the National Weather Service has issued a dense fog advisory through 9 am. Please take care driving. This is due in part to very light winds and temperatures and dewpoints being an identical 60 degrees in many locations. When the fog clears we will have a sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Lows tonight will drop into the low- to mid-60s, and dense fog may very well return early on Friday.
High temperature forecast for Saturday. (Weather Bell)
Friday and Saturday
These will be sunny and hot days. The National Weather Service presently forecasts a high of 88 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport on Friday, and 89 degrees on Saturday. We’ll see if we hit that historic 90-degree mark. Friday night will be warm, with temperatures in the mid-60s. I expect the front to arrive sometime between Saturday evening and Sunday morning, bringing drier and cooler air into the region. At this point I don’t anticipate much, if any precipitation with the front.
Sunday
A breezy and cooler day with clear skies. Expect highs around 70 degrees. Winds will be gusty, especially during the middle of the day with maximum gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the low 40s on Sunday night, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.
Low temperature forecast for Tuesday morning. (Weather Bell)
Monday
A chilly day, with highs perhaps topping out in the lower 60s. Winds will die down. Lows on Monday night will drop to around 40 in the region, with inland areas seeing the 30s.
The rest of next week
After the cold start to Veteran’s Day, we will see a gradual warmup, with highs likely returning to around 80 degrees by Wednesday, and remaining on the warm side into the weekend. Rain chances look low. Another front is possible later next weekend, but our overall confidence in the forecast is low.
In brief: Houston’s forecast remains more or less the same, with warming days and nights heading into the weekend, followed by a sharp cooldown on Saturday night. This front will be relatively short-lived, but bring two cold nights into the region.
Wednesday
Lows are about 10 degrees warmer this morning, but this will still be our coolest morning until Monday, probably. Winds are calm, but will be southerly later this morning, indicating the ongoing return of the onshore flow. Highs will be in the vicinity of 80 degrees. Skies will be mostly clear today, and remain so for pretty much the rest of the week as high pressure dominates. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the lower 60s, with slightly cooler conditions for outlying areas.
Thursday
A similar day to Wednesday, although the southeasterly winds may be slightly more pronounced, and humidity levels a touch higher. Highs, again, will be around 80 degrees, or just a bit warmer. Lows on Thursday night will only drop into the upper 60s.
Friday looks to be the hottest day of the week, and it will be very warm for early November. (Weather Bell)
Friday and Saturday
These will be warmer days, especially for early November. Expect highs in the mid- to upper 80s across the region, with mostly sunny skies. With dewpoints in the 60s it will feel humid, but not super sultry like the summertime in Houston. Lows will drop into the 60s on both nights, although areas north of I-10 may see cooler temperatures later on Saturday night. That’s because I think the front will reach our northern areas on Saturday evening or night, and push off the coast by around sunrise. This looks like a dry passage, although winds should pretty rapidly shift to come from the north.
Sunday
This will be a breezy, sunny day with highs likely topping out in the lower 70s. Temperatures on Sunday night will drop into the mid-40s in Houston, with cooler conditions further inland.
Low temperature forecast for Tuesday morning. There remains some uncertainty here. (Weather Bell)
Monday
We are going to see ideal cooling conditions on Monday and Monday night, with lighter winds. Expect highs to perhaps only reach the low- to mid-60s. As for Monday night, temperatures should drop into the 30s to the north of Houston, with a few areas (i.e. Trinity and Polk counties) near but not within the Houston metro area flirting with a light freeze. In Houston itself I think temperatures remain in the vicinity of 40 degrees, but this is likely to be the region’s coldest night of the season.
The rest of next week
Tuesday is likely to bring highs of around 70 degrees before we return to temperatures of around 80 degrees for the rest of the work week. As for rain chances, they’re very low, to zero, for the next 10 days.
In brief: In today’s post we discuss Houston’s very straightforward forecast, and look ahead to a front this weekend that will bring some (potentially) significantly colder air.
Temperatures this morning will be the coldest they get until next Tuesday. (Weather Bell)
Overall pattern is set
Houston’s forecast is pretty much set for the next week or so. In fact, I would forgive you if you left off checking Space City Weather for a day or two. Really, the only major question I have right now is just how cold temperatures will get early next week, after the arrival of a front next week. The city’s coldest temperature of the fall season, so far, was 47 degrees on Halloween morning. At this time I bet we get colder than that.
Before then we are going to see a gradual warm-up this week, from lows this morning in the vicinity of 50 degrees to lows in the mid-60s this weekend. With high pressure dominating we are going to see mostly sunny to full-on sunny days. We’ll also see gradually more humid air, although nothing oppressive like the region experiences during summer. The front likely arrives on Sunday morning, some time.
Tuesday
Today is going to be an exceptional day, with sunny skies and highs generally in the upper 70s. East winds will shift to come from the south, although remaining fairly light. This is the beginning of the onshore flow, although it will take some time for atmospheric moisture levels to rise. Accordingly humidity will still remain fairly low today. Lows tonight will be warmer, dropping to around 60 degrees in Houston.
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday
Over this period our daily high temperatures will gradually rise, from about 80 on Wednesday to the mid-80s by Friday (some areas further inland may push into the upper 80s). Really not much more to say. A couple of afternoons may have some wind gusts up to 15 mph. Evenings and mornings won’t be particularly cool, but it will be mild and pleasant to be outside. I’ll be enjoying them.
Saturday and Sunday
The first half of the weekend will bring more warm weather, not unlike Friday. The models have become a little faster with the timing of the front this weekend, and it now looks as though it will come through on Saturday night or Sunday morning. I’ll remain in the “to be determined” camp until there’s some consistency. At this point I think the front will be a dry passage, so I expect a lot of sunshine on Sunday. Look for highs in the upper 70s, probably? I think conditions will be fairly windy, with northerly gusts up to 25 mph, maybe. Lows on Sunday night will probably drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, but I’m writing that in pencil.
Will colder air dive into Texas, or be shunted more to the east early next week? (Weather Bell)
Next week
At this point I’m leaning into a “short and sharp” characterization of this front. Matt and I had a little discussion this morning about whether this could be described as an “Arctic” front, as it will be bringing a nose of significantly colder air into the eastern half of the United States. I’m going with a “whiff” of Arctic air, because I do think things could get pretty chilly on Monday night. Houston proper probably holds in the 40s somewhere, but I could see upper 30s for inland areas. It depends on how much of the colder air is pushed due south into Texas, or whether it is shunted off more to the east of us. Anyway, there’s the potential for some rather chilly conditions early next week. I do think temperatures will moderate pretty quicky by Tuesday night or Wednesday, however.
This month we’ve got a jam-packed SCW Q&A for you, with topics ranging from the eventual demise of La Niña to mysterious high tides to a new forum where you can talk weather, 24/7! The latter is also where you can now leave questions for this occasional Q&A series. Let’s get to it!
Q. I’ve heard a lot about the La Niña weather pattern that the US is apparently in. It indicates that we will have a warm and dry winter with above average temps. What is your realistic take on our upcoming winter? Will we ever have freezing temps or not?
A. So yes, La Niña conditions are currently present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This means that sea surface temperatures in the region are mostly below average across the area. According to the latest forecast from NOAA, issued last week, La Niña conditions are likely to persist through winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions likely in during the January to March time frame next year. Predicting precisely when just is not possible.
Probabilities of ENSO for now into summer 2026. (NOAA)
Assuming that a moderate La Niña is in place this winter, what does that mean for Texas in general, and Houston in particular?
Typical climatological pattern during La Niña (NOAA)
La Niña’s largest impact lies in how it affects the jet stream. I’ve discussed in the past the mechanics of the jet stream, and how important it is to Texas weather. In a normal winter, the jet stream drives low pressure systems and cold fronts down from Canada and into the southern United States. La Niña limits the southern extent of the jet stream, minimizing the number and intensity of those cold, rain-laden fronts we typically see. This means Texas could see a drier, warmer winter than average, if typical La Niña patterns play out. Of course we have had some of our very coldest snaps during some recent La Niña winters, so this should not be treated as an absolute certainty.
– Eric
Q. It feels like we are in a drought. What conditions must exist for meteorologists say “we’re in a drought” and what conditions must be met before an area comes out of the drought?
A. Generally, Matt and I rely on the U.S. Drought Monitor to determine drought conditions locally and nationally. They characterize the intensity of drought from “none” to “exceptional drought.” As of this week (with data through Monday, October 27) a little more than half of the Houston area is “abnormally dry” and a little less than half is in a “moderate drought.” If you’re interested in the methodology behind the drought determination, more information can be found here.
U.S. Drought Monitor product for Texas, released Thursday. (U.S. Drought Monitor)
Another good resource is the climate page of the Houston/Galveston office of the National Weather Service. They have lots of good resources, but among my favorite are snapshots of annual rainfall totals compared to normal levels. From this it is pretty clear that the Houston region has been building up a rainfall deficit since early August. That is pretty consistent with the time I started watering my grass this year.
Houston temperature and rainfall series for 2025. (National Weather Service)
Note, also, you can see a spike in rain totals associated with recent rainfall. It put a dent in our annual deficit, but only a small one.
– Eric
Q. I was visiting Houston and realized that the sky is blue at night. It’s not very dark like in nyc. Do you know why?
A. Interesting question! I don’t know the precise answer, but I would guess that one reason the sky over New York City at night appears to be a different ‘color’ or ‘tint’ than Houston is due to the presence of a larger number of skyscrapers and their bright lights in the Big Apple.
As for the blue color at night, that is largely due to the increased use of LED lights. Before about a decade ago, the vast majority of street and building lights were sodium-vapor lamps, which appeared more orange and yellow-ish. LEDs are much more efficient in terms of energy use. And they emit light at a shorter wavelength, in the blue-white portion of the spectrum. Shorter-wavelength light is scattered more efficiently. This leads to more bluish light bouncing around the lower atmosphere.
Both LED and yellow tungsten street lights are seen on this street in Houston’s River Oaks neighborhood. (Dwight Silverman photo)
Houston is also generally more humid than New York, and this extra humidity makes the effect more intense (water vapor in the atmosphere increases scattering).
– Eric
Q. We have had a lot of ozone days late summer / early Fall ( or at least it seems like it ). These days are usually drier in humidity and gorgeous. I’m pretty sensitive to the air quality. Even as far inland as Tomball it still affects me. Winds are from NWnot from SE( city of Houston air ) . What weather factors play into Ozone days? Lightwind, sun? Wind direction?
A. We do have a lot of ozone action days in Houston. Over the last 10 years, we have averaged about 37 per year. Just to refresh people’s memories, when we discuss “ozone action days,” we aren’t referring to the ozone layer in the stratosphere (or good ozone); we are discussing ground ozone, which forms through chemical reactions between nitrogen oxide and what we call “volatile organic compounds,” or VOCs. In plain language? The pollution emitted by cars, power plants, refineries, chemical plants, etc. will chemically react in sunlight to produce ground-level ozone.
(U.S. Environmental Protection Agency)
The reality is that some of the nicest days in Houston can be marred by pollution because maximum sunlight and clear skies usually follows cold fronts, ushering in lower humidity. You’ll see most of our ozone action days in autumn and spring behind cold fronts or sometimes behind winter fronts. We can also get them in summer when we have stagnant high pressure and minimal daytime thunderstorms. While it does tend to improve the farther you get from the population (Harris County) or industrial (Galveston County) centers, because Houston sprawls so much and so far, ozone issues can extend far into Harris County and even just beyond. Wind direction does not play much of a role, but cars, industry, and sunlight do.
– Matt
Q. We recently got an alert warning of coastal flooding potential while in Galveston. It was a strange sight considering we were used to seeing flood warnings before a storm, but rain wasn’t anywhere in the forecast. Yet, we encountered times where the beaches in the west end had no accessible sand because the tides were so high and our rented beach house had flooded roads. What caused this sudden high tide spree? A friend claimed it was a “noreaster” which popped up on my feed affecting the east coast, is that effectively a hurricane for side effects to other coastal areas? What gives?
A. Ah, the joys of living on the Gulf Coast. Blue sky flooding is a fairly common problem, and it has gotten to be more common due to the combination of sea level rise due to climate change and land subsidence as we pull groundwater out of aquifers.
The day you’re speaking of was a day of what we call “king tides,” which are the astronomically highest tides of the year. Basically, the predicted highest tides in any year are king tides. We know when those will occur. But this year, we also had what we call a “long fetch” (more fetch than “Mean Girls”), which is to say easterly winds pushing across the length of the Gulf from Florida to Texas, which helped elevate tides a little more. The combination of king tides and the winds helped cause some coastal flooding without a drop of rain.
The average general wind direction from October 4-6 during the king tides in the Gulf. (NOAA)
Q. We like the new commenting system, but each category closes after a day. Is there a place where we can just chat in general about the weather? Or ask weather questions?
A. We’ve been getting more comfortable with Discourse as our commenting system, and now that things have settled down, we’re going to try out having a discussion area where people can talk about more general weather-related topics. Please feel free to try out the Weather Talk category!
Unlike the Space City Weather or The Eyewall categories, anyone can start a thread in Weather Talk, and discussions will stay open instead of closing in 24 hours.
We’d like to keep things focused on the weather rather than having free-ranging discussions, so please make your discussions weather-related! There’s a welcome post in the new forum with some more details on how we’d like things to go, so please check that first.
You can also use this forum to post questions you’d like to see in our regular Q&A feature (like this one!). When we get ready to post a new Q&A, we’ll scan that category for your queries. Got a question you want to ask now? Head over to Weather Talk!
