In brief: After Saturday morning’s storms the atmosphere needed some time to recharge. It appears that is now happening, raising the possibility of more storms tonight. Here’s what we know, and what we don’t, about what to expect.

Fall Day

I’ll have some photos to share early next week, but I just wanted to thank the hundreds of people who came out to Midtown Park this morning to say hello, shake our hands, and share some kind words. It was wonderful to see everyone and share a few hours of lovely fall-like weather. Thank you also to Reliant for the hard work in setting it all up.

Saturday night

After this morning’s rollicking storms the atmosphere was pretty well worked over. This is why we had some confidence in several hours of calmer weather, and even some clear skies. However, factors such as atmospheric instability are now recovering, and by this evening the overall setup will become more conducive to the development of thunderstorms. With that said we still have some questions about how severe the storms will become. So what follows is our best guess, rather than a high confidence forecast.

Some time after sunset, perhaps in the range of 8 to 10 pm CT, a cluster of storms will develop northwest (near College Station) or north (along Highway 105). This line will then descend into Houston between 10 pm and early Sunday morning, bringing the threat of heavy rainfall, thunder and lightning, damaging winds, hail, and a very slight chance of a tornado. However, unlike the storms early on Saturday I think these will be less of a single line and more of a diffuse mass.

To that end I think these storms will be more hit or miss, but where they hit they could do so hard. Some areas may get less than 0.5 inch of rain, and some areas may get 3 inches or more. The higher totals are more likely south of Interstate 10. For the most part this should not be enough rainfall to cause significant flooding problems. The majority of the storms should have moved off the coast a couple of hours before sunrise.

In short there’s plenty of potential for storms to hit tonight, but unlike the guaranteed squall line on Saturday morning, there is a little more uncertainty.

Sunday and beyond

We could see a few isolated showers on Sunday, but for the most part I expect sunshine and a high near 80 degrees. With moderately drier air it should be a pleasant day, with lows Sunday night dropping to around 60 for much of the region. A stronger front arrives later on Tuesday, ushering in truly fall-like weather. We’ll talk about just how cold it’s going to get in Monday morning’s post. Until then, have a fine rest of the weekend.

In brief: Houston survived the first round of storms, and we expect to see calmer weather for much of Saturday before another line of storms passes through the region later this evening. Come see us at Fall Day!

Round one, done

Well, did those overnight storms wake you up? The first round to pound Houston moved through during the wee hours of the morning, bringing plenty of thunder and lightning, some damaging winds, and generally 0.5 to 2 inches of rain. As of just before 6 am this morning, about 5 percent of customers are without power due to the storms. As anticipated, this line has now moved off to the east, with conditions improving behind it.

Saturday, daytime

So where does this leave us for the rest of today? There will be a continued chance of showers this morning, but coverage should be rather scattered for much of the day. So generally we expect to have clearing skies by late morning hours, with temperatures in the 70s. For much of the day, it should be pretty nice.

Speaking of which, please consider coming by our Fall Day celebration today from 10 am to noon at Midtown Park. We anticipate generally nice conditions, but if there is a stray shower there is plenty of cover at the park. We will have lots of fun activities for your family, and we will have special, 10th anniversary t-shirts for sale (exclusively) this morning. I must very sincerely apologize, however. The complementary tote bags that I ordered were delayed in shipping and now now not due to arrive until Monday. We will have to distribute them at a later date. I am very sorry about this (and believe me I have agonized about it). Fortunately Reliant has promised lots of other fun giveaways and activities. See you soon!

Conditions should remain pleasant through at least the early afternoon. However, later on we expect to observe the development of a second line of storms to the west of our region, which will potentially impact our weather on Saturday night into Sunday.

Saturday night

We’re still waiting to see exactly how this sets up, given the state of our atmosphere after Saturday morning’s round of storms. But generally we can expect to see a line or cluster of storms to develop near College Station around sunrise, give or take a couple of hours. Then this line of storms, in association with a weak front, should sag into the greater Houston region between 8 pm and midnight, likely moving off the coast during the wee hours of Sunday morning. These storms will carry similar threats to round one: heavy rain, thunder and lightning, damaging winds, possibly some hail and a very slight chance of a tornado. What will be different is that they’re likely come earlier in the evening, catching people when they might be out for dinner, a show, a sporting event, or what not. Please do be mindful of the weather this evening.

Sunday and beyond

After the early morning hours, Sunday should be mostly sunny and pleasant with the system moved offshore. Monday will be a little warmer, in the low- to mid-80s before a fine fall front arrives on Tuesday and ushers in some lovely weather.

In brief: The forecast outlined in our post this morning is more or less on track. But we have a finer handle on the details of what to expect, and when, this weekend. In short, expect to be awoken early Saturday as storms sweep through.

Friday evening

There are some isolated showers on the southern periphery of the Houston metro area this evening, near Lake Jackson, but for the most part we expect this to be a quiet evening across the region. Expect fairly humid air with temperatures in the 70s as you take in high school football or partake in other activities. We have no weather concerns until after midnight.

Early Saturday

As we’ve been discussing for awhile now, a fairly robust squall line will move through the region during the overnight hours and into Saturday morning. This line will bring the usual mix of lighting, thunder, strong winds, heavy rain, and potentially some hail. The line will fortunately be making fairly good progress from west to east, so the really intense weather won’t last too long, perhaps 30 minutes or at most an hour. On the Excitable Dogs Scale, I’m going to go with an 8.5 for tonight out of 10.

I expect the line to reach College Station between 1 and 3 am CT; a line from Katy to The Woodlands between 3 and 5 am; central Houston between 4 and 6 am; and the coast between 5 and 7 am. During these hours it would be best to hunker down as we quickly pick up 1 to 3 inches of rainfall and the usual, low-lying streets may briefly flood. Within an hour or two of sunrise these storms should have moved off to the east. Some scattered showers may linger.

Later Saturday morning

We expect some clearing after the squall line moves through, perhaps even a few hours of sunny skies. By some miracle, this happens to be when we’ve scheduled our Fall Day event, a celebration of Space City Weather’s 10th anniversary. Please come by Midtown Park, 2811 Travis, in Houston between 10 am and noon to say hello. We can’t rule out a few scattered showers during the late morning hours, but there’s plenty of cover at the park.

Saturday afternoon and overnight

We expect relatively quiet conditions from late morning through the afternoon, aside from the potential for some sporadic showers. However as a weak front approaches, we should see a second squall line develop later on Saturday evening. The timing is still a little fuzzy, but these storms could impact the College Station area during the evening hours and then drop into Houston in the 10 pm to 2 am time frame. So if you have Saturday night plans, you’ll want to keep an eye on the radar. After this weather clears we should see calm conditions on Sunday, and clearing skies.

We’ll have a full update for you on all of this tomorrow morning.

In brief: We have a comprehensive update on what we expect to be two rounds of storms, one early Saturday, and another later on Saturday evening, that are likely to buffet Houston with heavy rains and strong winds. In between we still expect to have fair conditions for our Fall Day celebration on Saturday. And we have fall-like weather in the forecast to celebrate!

Fall Day update

As we noted yesterday, despite the prospect of storms this weekend, we plan to press ahead with our Fall Day celebration from 10 am to noon CT on Saturday, at Midtown Park. Yes, there will be storms early Saturday morning, but we expect the main line to have largely cleared by the time of our event. Temperatures should be in the low 70s. If there are a few scattered showers we will have plenty of cover at the park. We continue to watch the forecast closely, and will adjust our plans accordingly if conditions are unsafe. But right now the weather looks favorable for mid- to late morning on Saturday. And we have reasons to celebrate: drought-busting storms and the promise of much cooler weather next week. See you there?

Friday

Skies today should start out mostly clear, but we’ll see clouds building this afternoon as atmospheric moisture levels rise. We should see some scattered showers south and west of Houston later this afternoon and evening, but coverage will be rather sporadic. Expect highs in the low- to mid-80s for most locations. It will be breezy, with southeasterly winds gusting up to 25 mph.

Tonight we will need to cast our gaze to the west, as a strong line of thunderstorms (in association with an upper-level disturbance) forms in Central Texas along the I-35 corridor and begins to march toward Houston. In terms of timing I expect this line to reach College Station around 1 to 3 am; the central Houston area between 3 and 6 am, and the coast between 6 and 8 am. This line of storms should bring 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with higher isolated totals, in addition to the potential for damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado.

We’ll be back with a forecast update later today to confirm the timings above.

Saturday

This line of storms should move eastward by mid-morning, leaving in its wake some scattered showers and possibly a few hours of clearing skies. However, by Saturday afternoon or evening we are likely to see the formation of another storm system to the northwest of Houston, in association with a weak front. This is likely to bring another round of storms into the metro area during the evening or overnight hours. These storms could be just as severe as those early Saturday morning, with the added bonus of hail. So it could be a second night for excitable dogs. Anyway I’m hopeful (but not certain) this second system will have moved through by around midnight or shortly after. Things should calm down a bit in its wake.

In terms of total rainfall, both of these rounds of storms should bring a combined 2 to 4 inches to most locations, with higher isolated totals. I don’t anticipate widespread flooding given how parched our soils are, but the heaviest rains will be coming at night, so please take care on roads and do not drive into high water. Hazards may be hidden.

Sunday

Some showers may linger on Sunday morning, but I expect to see clearing skies and, with slightly drier air, a pleasant day with highs of around 80 degrees.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday should be slightly warmer days, with highs in the low- to mid-80s. However, a front with more cold air behind it looks set to arrive on Tuesday, and this will usher in decidedly fall-like weather for the remainder of next week. (Probably not much, if any, rain with this front). We are talking a few days of highs in the 70s (Thursday might even top out in the 60s) with nights probably in the 50s through the weekend. Halloween, for the most part, looks to be clear and cool for your trick-or-treating desires. Ideal weather on Halloween in Houston? It’s been awhile.