In brief: In today’s post, although it is quite chilly this morning, we report that Houston is probably done with freezing weather for this season. We also look ahead to a warm day on Thursday, followed by mild conditions this weekend.

Last freeze?

Temperatures are rather cold across the Houston region this morning, dropping into the low- to mid-30s are inland areas such as Conroe and Cleveland, with the low 40s in the urban parts of the region. However, with it not freezing this morning, Matt and I are fairly confident the Houston region will not see a freeze again this season.

Could it freeze in parts of Houston? On average, the city experiences its last freeze in mid-February (last week), but there have been plenty of years in which temperatures have reached freezing in March. So this is not a firm guarantee from your friendly meteorologists at Space City Weather. But looking ahead at our weather the next two weeks, there is nothing to suggest freezing temperatures are on the horizon. Overall, things look pretty spring-like for us, and that pattern is likely to carry on through March.

Speaking of winter, a powerful winter storm has hit the northeastern United States during the overnight hours. This was well predicted by forecasters, but still quite a striking event for the region from Washington D.C. to Maine. Winds are gusting up to 60 mph, in addition to 1 to 3 feet of snow, in some locations. Matt has been writing about the impacts of this massive blizzard over on The Eyewall.

Monday

By contrast, our weather here is likely to be fair in the days ahead, with sunny skies prevailing for the most part. High temperatures today will push up into the low- to mid-60s, with light northeasterly winds. Low temperatures tonight will again drop into the low 40s in Houston, with the potential for upper 30s for some areas further inland.

Tuesday

This will be another sunny day, with highs pushing into the lower 70s as high pressure eases away from the region. Winds will turn gusty from the south, perhaps up to 25 mph during the afternoon and early evening hours. Lows on Tuesday night will drop to around 60 degrees.

Wednesday

This will be another day in which southerly winds really whip up across the region, gusting to perhaps 25 or even 30 mph, bringing more humid air into the region. Highs on Wednesday will likely reach up to around 80 degrees, with mostly sunny skies. Lows on Wednesday night will fall only into the 60s.

Thursday

This will be the warmest day of the week, and perhaps the year to date, as highs push into the low- to mid-80s across the region. Temperatures may feel upward pressure due to compressional heating as a cool front pushes southward, likely reaching the area during the afternoon or early evening hours. I don’t expect much in the way of rain with the front, but it should knock lows into the upper 50s by Friday morning.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend looks to be mild, with high temperatures in the vicinity of 80 degrees, and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows will range from the mid-50s to 60 degrees, probably, with moderate humidity levels. It won’t be cold, but it won’t be steamy hot, either.

Next week

Our mild weather continues into next week, with highs likely in the vicinity of 80 degrees. Some rain chances may return by around the middle of next week, we’ll see!

In brief: Today, we look at how drought has changed in the Houston area since last weekend’s rain (it hasn’t). We also take stock of our weekend cold front and look out in time at rain chances over the next 10 days, which are generally absent.

Did this past weekend’s rain help with drought?

No. Technically, it did not. Drought coverage remained unmoved over the last week, with about 95 percent of the area in some sort of drought and over 75 percent in severe drought.

Keep in mind that “drought” itself carries a number of varying definitions. The drought monitor maps like above capture the bulk of the story but not all of the story. Sure, did this past weekend’s rain help matters? Absolutely. But when you’re talking about longer term issues with things like agriculture or water supply or things like that, the story can vary over time and space. Either way, we need more rain. And we’re not gonna get it for a bit.

Today & Saturday

Other than areas of dense fog this morning, perhaps lingering into the afternoon near Galveston, things look pretty quiet today and tomorrow. Expect highs near 80 inland and 70s nearer the coast. Outside of low clouds and fog in the morning, look for hazy conditions with clouds and sun. A few drips or drops are possible with a shower or two in area. Cedar pollen remains high, so you may be sneezy.

A cold front is going to advance through the area on Saturday evening, wiping out the haze and fog. It will also wipe out the warmth and humidity. Look for gusty winds Saturday evening, with gusts up to 30 mph inland for a short time and gusts up to 35 mph or so on the Island. The front itself should have little to no fanfare, as it will be mostly a dry front.

Sunday

Temperatures will drop off Saturday night, bottoming out in the 40s over much of the area by Sunday morning.

The breeze should remain all day but it will lower in intensity somewhat. We should see a return to sunshine, dry air, cool air, and low humidity. Look for highs in the 60s on Sunday.

Early next week

The early week will be “post-frontal pleasant” with lows in the 30s and 40s and highs in the 60s, perhaps near 70 by Tuesday. Skies should be sunny.

Later next week

It’s possible that another weak front passes through the area on Wednesday or Thursday, which could usher in another round of gusty winds and lower humidity. Before that, highs will peak back near 80 degrees or so.

Unfortunately, our rain chances over the next 10 days are minimal. Enjoy the generally nice weather, but let’s hope for rain again sooner than later.

In brief: The overall forecast has not changed much, with warm weather persisting through Saturday afternoon before a cool front arrives. Also, we’re welcoming your ideas to improve Space City Weather!

How would you improve us?

The brain trust of Space City Weather will be meeting at an undisclosed location tonight (hint, they serve good pizza) in Houston to discuss our plans for the coming year, and also future directions of the site. No, we’re not planning to change any of fundamental parts of what we do here (such as no-hype forecasts and dad humor). But we are always looking for better ways to meet our readers where they are, and ensuring we’re getting the most reliable information to the broadest audience for free. So if you have any ideas you think would improve Space City Weather, from how we distribute our content to the content itself, leave suggestions in the comments below or use the contact button.

Thursday and Friday

The overall forecast has not changed much. Today and Friday will bring partly to mostly cloudy skies, with muggy air, and high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s. A few days ago it looked like we might hit the mid-80s this week, but we are likely to be spared from that by more clouds than previously anticipated. Nights will still be exceptionally warm for this time of year, however (our lows in the mid- to upper 60s will fall just a couple of degree below record high minimums of 69 degrees). There also will be a slight chance of showers today, but anything that reaches the ground will probably be misty or light, so don’t expect anything in the way of accumulations.

Saturday

This will be another warm and humid day, with a chance of light mist or showers as temperatures push up to around 80 degrees (or a bit above). A front will arrive during the afternoon hours, with drier and cooler air moving in at some point on Saturday evening. I don’t anticipate any showers or storms with the frontal passage. Lows will drop into the upper 40s by Sunday morning as skies clear out.

Sunday and Monday

Winter’s back! These will be cooler days with highs probably in the 60 to 65 degree range along with sunny skies. Sunday will be breezy, but I expect winds to settle down by Sunday evening. Sunday and Monday nights will definitely be on the chilly side. I expect lows of around 40 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for inland areas. However I expect the region to remain above freezing, if only a few degrees in the cold spots such as Conroe.

Next week

Tuesday’s highs may be in the 60s, but by Wednesday we’ll be on a distinct warming trend, with highs in the 80s likely for the rest of the work week. Some sort of front may arrive by next weekend, we’ll see.

In brief: A warm and muggy air mass will dominate our region into the weekend before a front drops down from the northwest and sweeps it into the Gulf. Some inland areas may see lows in the upper 30s early next week, but a freeze is unlikely.

Overview

Houston’s weather will be dominated by a persistent onshore flow in the coming days that will bring mild, warm, and humid southerly air into the region. Despite the increasing moisture levels, lift of this warm air at the surface will be mostly suppressed, which will in turn limit our region’s rain chances. While we may see some light, misty showers in the coming days, I don’t think we are going to see much (if anything) in the way of accumulations. We will see a chance for late night and early morning fog, however, as dewpoints match temperatures and overnight winds settle down.

Wednesday

Highs today will reach around 80 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions closer to the coast. Afternoon wind gusts will reach about 20 mph, and with dewpoints in the 60s it will feel fairly humid outside. Overnight low temperatures will fall only into the 60s tonight.

Thursday and Friday

These two days will be similar in Houston, with highs in the lower 80s for the most part. Our daytime temperatures will depend on afternoon cloud cover. Each of these days will also have a low chance of light or misty showers, although again I would not anticipate anything in the way of accumulations. Fog chances will continue through Friday night.

Saturday

We should see more humid, partly cloudy, and warm weather with highs testing the 80 degree mark again. In terms of timing I still think the cold front will push through some time during the afternoon or early evening hours, with dewpoints quickly falling after its passage. Some light showers will be possible with the front, but again accumulations look very slight. By sunrise on Sunday morning we can expect lows probably in the upper 40s for all but coastal areas, which will be a shade warmer.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend will be sunny, with highs in the low- to mid-60s for Houston. The day will be breezy, with winds from the north at 10 to 15 mph and higher gusts bringing in a much drier air mass. By Sunday night we’ll see lows dropping probably into the lower 40s in Houston, with the possibility of some upper 30s for inland areas.

Next week

Monday night will be cold again, before we see temperatures begin to moderate some next week. By Wednesday or Thursday we should return to temperatures in the vicinity of 80 degrees. Skies look to be mostly sunny next week, with not much in the way of precipitation chances.